sustainable cities 2030 - 2050cistup.iisc.ac.in/presentations/acatech25thapril/06_sustainable cities...

Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.

Sustainable Cities 2030 - 2050 Pictures of the Future: Trends and Scenarios acatech CiSTUP symposium Bangalore April 25, 2012 V S Mani Siemens Information Systems Ltd.

Corporate Development Center India Copyright © Siemens Information Systems Ltd. 2012. All rights reserved.

Committed to profit and growth

Revenue by Sector

Revenue and employees

Revenue by Region

Key figures

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

500

400

300

200

100

2000

Employees in thousands

1986 1990 1995 FY 2011

Revenue in millions of euros

Healthcare

€12.5 billion

Energy

€27.6 billion

45%

33%

16% Industry €32.9 billion

Other

Total revenue of Sectors and Cross-Sector Businesses

17%

43% 37% 26%

21%

Based on cluster location

15%

40%

18%

America

Germany

Europe, CIS, Africa, Middle East (excl. Germany)

Asia, Australia

19% 15%

38% 28%

Continuing operations (in millions of euros) FY2010 FY2011

New orders 74,055 85,582 Revenue 68,978 73,515 Income 5,974 9,242 Free cash flow 7,043 5,885 Employees 336,000 360,000

As of September 30, 2011

April 2012 V S Mani


Key R&D figures

R&D spending in percent of revenue

2009

5.1%

2010

5.2%

2011

5.3%

R&D spending: €3.925 billion in fiscal 2011, or 5.3% of revenue

27,800 R&D employees worldwide Roughly 17,000 software engineers 160 R&D locations in roughly

30 countries around the world 8,600 inventions in fiscal 2011 53,300 patents granted

2009

4.9%

2009

4.7%

Focus on sustainability

CO2 abatement at customers

(in € billions)

(in millions of tons)

2014 (target) 2010 2009

40

27.6 26.8

2010 2009

267 214

~40% of total revenue

Revenue from environmental portfolio

2011

317 …roughly equal to 1% of global CO2 emissions in 2010

2011

29.9

Innovation is our lifeblood

April 2012 V S Mani

21st most innovative company of 2012

Sector Leader for 4th year in a row.

World’s 3rd best green brand

http://www.interbrand.com/en/Default.aspx�


Four megatrends

Urbanization World's population in cities : 2007: 50 % 2050: 70% 3.4 billion 5.2 billion Contribution to world GDP 600 cities (22% population): 2007: 51% 2025: 60%1

Move to cities: ~ 70 million/year

Climate Change Cities consume/produce 75% of the world’s energy 60% of all drinking water 80% of all greenhouse gases Climate change strongly

linked to urbanization

Demographic Change

Globalization

Population of 65+ old people: 2011: 550 mn 2050:1,500 mn Need for institutions for health

and elder care

Annual GDP growth till 2020: India 8.6%, China 8.1%, USA ~3%, Ger. 1.7%2 Emerging markets offer

significant opportunities and also challenges

April 2012 V S Mani

Cities are shaping our future!

1. McKinsey 2007, 2. IHS Global Insight 2011


City trends overview Framework for scenarios

273 Trends imp. for cities

Healthcare & Well-being

Aging society Nano-/Bio-/Gentech

Energy

Climate change energy demand / energy independence

Work & Leisure

Remote work places 24x7 working life stress levels Virtual technologies

Quality of life Social

Structures

migration Pervasion of ICT technologies Individualization/ flexibility

Transportation & Logistics

traffic volume/ congestion Regulation changes Traffic/mobility pattern

Water

global water stress

Resources & Recycling

Lack of landfill space Scarcity of agricultural land

Safety & Security

Cyber crime Ubiquitous sensor networks

Admin., Finance & Participation

partnerships ICT as key enabler/ driver

Strategy Plg. & Identity

complexity demand for new living spaces/land

Architecture & Plg./Mgmt.

ICT/building automation Laws/incentives for energy efficiency

Information & Comm. Tech.

penetration of IT Sensor pervasion Digital natives

12 Trend Clusters

Environment

Management and development


2050 Most of the power from renewable energy /

CO2-free sources

Power corridors with very low transmission losses through new technologies

More decentralized energy

Integration of energy grid with mobility concept and with demand side management of buildings

Highly resilient electrical infrastructure in case of failure based on smart grid

Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Energy

April 2012 V S Mani


2050 New mobility concepts will improve capacity

and flexibility of transportation infrastructure (autonomous, zero-accident transport capsules, zero pollution, convoy-configuration, 3D-bus).

Integrated intelligent infrastructure and traffic management system using real-time data and forecast s to optimize.

Always-on services, dematerialization and decentralization will reduce individual traffic

Intermodal, seamless and demand-oriented mobility as a preferred service with "zero effort“ traveling

Efficient hub concepts e.g. mega hubs and consolidation centers: intelligent, multi-purpose infrastructure

Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Transportation & Logistics

April 2012 V S Mani


2050 Global migration leads to social and cultural

diversity in urban areas.

A structural shift of economic power is based on rising wealth, better education and living standards of middle classes, especially in Asia.

Down ageing: live long - stay young

Virtual/ICT technologies and highly flexible lifestyle will lead to “Access Society” influencing human values and traditions.

Successful vertical democracy and appreciated social engagement raising communities / cooperative individualism creates new communities

Flexible life style and planning

Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Social Structures & Values

April 2012 V S Mani


2050 CO2-free housing-standard will be mandatory for

all new buildings.

Building clusters with multi-level infrastructure provide living space, work- and leisure opportunities at close distance.

Scalability is achieved via decentralized infrastructures (waste, water, energy).

New shapes and materials result in green and highly efficient building constructions optimized for regional climate and environment.

Quality of life is improved by building (cluster) construction (e.g. daylight concepts), green layers (in/out/betwen buildings)

Improved mobility concepts inside of buildings and between buildings/building clusters.

Recycling of building and city constructions (lifecycle)

Pictures of the Future – Sustainable Cities Snapshot: Architecture & Urban Planning/Management

April 2012 V S Mani


Decentralized City

Me X- Lifestyle

Seamless Mobility

Sensible City

City in environmental balance

Sub-scenarios

Sustainable City Comprehensive Scenario 2030 - 2050

April 2012 V S Mani


Scenario 2030 – 2050 City in Environmental Balance

Power supply by renewables via power corridors and decentralized power generation

Buildings are adapted to regional aspects/zero emission buildings

Implementation of 3R-water systems and rain water collection facilities

Building as a tree

Harmonization of citizens and environment: Common understanding for environmental impacts: green mindset, “me-green” footprint

New architectural building concepts e.g. bionically inspired design, high efficiency, biodegradable

Building automation for optimized energy management

April 2012 V S Mani


Scenario 2030 – 2050 City in Environmental Balance

Energy harvesting e.g. body heat, step pressure

Integrated solar cells

Integrated wind wheels on building roofs, balconies, parking areas,…

Integrated river turbines

Use of waste water heat for building heating

International water institution and water recycling

Waste to power/ new logistic concepts in building/city districts

CO2 reduction by synthetic photosynthesis Methanol/H2

Building automation improves energy efficiency

Integrated phase change materials optimize heat exchange

Power supply by renewables via power corridors and decentralized power generation

Buildings are adapted to regional aspects/zero emission buildings

Implementation of R³-water systems and rain water collection facilities

Building as a tree

Citizens in harmony with the environment: Common view of environmental impact - green mindset

New architectural building concepts e.g. bionically inspired design, high efficiency, biodegradable

Building automation for optimized energy management

April 2012 V S Mani


Energy Efficiency Vision

Passive climate by thermal insulation

Natural light supported by high efficient artificial light / OLED

Solar energy on roof and facade

Energy storage

Part of smart grid

Prism windows guiding light depending on the

sun’s position Phase change

material regulating room climate

Cars buffer energy

Heat exchanged with the earth

April 2012 V S Mani

Buildings consume ~40% of worldwide energy and produce 21% of all CO2 emissions. Saving potential: 40%


Innovative, sustainable and energy efficient solutions for urban spaces

April 2012 V S Mani

We have an unmatched portfolio of solutions for cities


Toll System: intelligent video systems that traffic volume by 20% street congestion by 26% CO2 emissions by50,000 tons/yr cars on streets by 60,000

Solutions for the city of London

April 2012 V S Mani

Smart Grid: Siemens is working on a power distribution concept to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% by 2020

Heathrow Express: Siemens Desiro trains travel time from 50 to 15 min Carry 16,000 passengers/day

London Array offshore wind farm: World’s largest offshore wind farm 175 wind turbines produce 630 MW Energy for ~750,000 households CO2 emissions by 1.9 mn tons/yr

Electric mobility: London's goal is to have 1,300 public charging stations in operation across the entire city by 2013 We're supplying software solutions and related services

Hybrid buses: combination of diesel-electric engines and energy storage systems fuel consumption by 40% emissions by 40%

We have an unmatched portfolio of solutions for cities


Building Management Solutions Effective Intelligent Energy Management …

Energy consumption in buildings Siemens Headquarters Mumbai

22% Energy consumption

38% Energy Costs

1.4 years ROI

No BMS

BMS with energy monitoring

BMS without energy monitoring

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

Time

BMS with efficiency measures

… can result in significant savings even in old buildings!

April 2012 V S Mani


Effective Transportation Solutions 3-Phase Propulsion Systems …

Suburban trains of Mumbai

30% Energy consumption

… superior technology delivers greater benefits!

40% CO2 level in coach (better ventilation)

Improved Ride comfort

Increased Speed

April 2012 V S Mani

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/25/Mumbai_Train.JPG�


Energy Distribution Solutions DMS system for Maharashtra R-APDRP program

Challenges Distribution Management System

Secure network control and current information

Easy scheduled switching

Easy fault location/isolation and service restoration Better utilization of network capacity

Better reliability and quality

Solution

T&D losses

Dependency on sub-station staff

Poor quality of service to the consumers

Poor integration between network operations and IT systems

SCADA and DMS system at control rooms

RTUs at substations and FRTUs at RMUs

Communication backbone

Data Recovery Center

April 2012 V S Mani


V S Mani Marketing Corporate Development Center India Siemens Information Systems Ltd. Phone: +91 80 3313 4366 E-Mail: [email protected]

Questions?

Visit us at the Indo-German Urban Mela

June 22 – July 1, 2012

Palace Grounds, Bangalore

mailto:[email protected]�


Definition of sustainable city

April 2012 V S Mani

The concept of sustainable development is an evolving, debatable term. There is no one single definition. As an example, the definition for sustainable urban development that was agreed on in the preparatory meetings for the URBAN21 Conference (Berlin, July 2000) is referred to in the following: "Improving the quality of life in a city, including ecological, cultural, political, institutional, social and economic components without leaving a burden on the future generations. A burden which is the result of a reduced natural capital and an excessive local debt. Our aim is that the flow principle, that is based on an equilibrium of material and energy and also financial input/output, plays a crucial role in all future decisions upon the development of urban areas.“ Reference: http://archive.rec.org/REC/Programs/SustainableCities/what.html


Thank You!

Any Questions?

[email protected]


Moore s Law: Computing Power goes low cost commodity ubiquituous … a universal enabler

Data - Information - Knowledge:

universal access to information

tremendous cost decrease

ubiquitous production

Main enabler for the digital society

Megatrends:

Urbanisation Demografic change Climate change

Specific demand side trends

Global Trends:

Globalisation of supply chains

Interdependency of politics and trade, …

“Market Pull” “Technology Push”

Alignment and goal orientation

Innovation engine

Specific technology trends

Looking into the future Big challenges ahead

April 2012 V S Mani


Urbanization

April 2012 V S Mani

More people are being born, live in or are moving to cities


The urban millennium

April 2012 V S Mani

Source: McKinsey 2007


Solutions for the city of London

April 2012 V S Mani


Sustainability is top of mind for city administrators

April 2012 V S Mani

Global competitiveness

Clean environment

Quality of life

Technologies

Challenges

Population

Economic power

sustainable cities 2030 - 2050cistup.iisc.ac.in/presentations/acatech25thapril/06_sustainable cities...

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