Sustainability, Population, and

Resource Depletion

Sustainability, Population, and

Resource Depletion

Richard HeinbergRichard HeinbergPost Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute

October 6, 2008October 6, 2008

Richard HeinbergRichard HeinbergPost Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute

October 6, 2008October 6, 2008

What is sustainability?

• 1712 “sustainable yield forestry”

• 1987 Brundtland Report: “development that meets current needs without jeopardizing the ability of future generations to meet theirs”

Five Axioms of Sustainability

Axiom 1

• A society that continues to use resources unsustainably will collapse.

Collapse of previous civilizations

• Resource depletion a frequent cause

• Societal complexity yields benefits…

• but those benefits are subject to diminishing returns

Axiom 2

• Population growth and/or growth in rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained.

Axiom 3

• To be sustainable, the use of renewable resources must proceed at a rate that is less than or equal to that of natural replenishment.

Marine Fish Catch

topsoil

World population grows 80 million people per year

Erosion claims 24 billion tons of topsoil per year

Biodiversity loss

Axiom 4

• To be sustainable, the use of non-renewable resources must be declining at a rate greater than or equal to the rate of depletion.

US Oil Production

The Fossil-Fueled

Industrial Era—

Winning the Winning the Energy LotteryEnergy Lottery

Global production falls when loss of output from countries in

decline exceeds gains in output from those expanding

Decline

Expansion

New discoveries look promising…

• Brazil

• Gulf of Mexico

• Bakken shale (Montana)

• Arctic regions

But before we count new inputs, we have to subtract declines

• Russia’s oil production has peaked (Financial Times, April 14, 2008)

• Nigeria to lose a third of its oil output by 2015 (AFP, April 16, 2008)

Peak Oil means more expensive gasoline…and

everything else made from oilplastics, lubricants, asphalt, ammonia, anti-histamines, antiseptics, artificial turf, aspirin,

balloons, bandages, boats, bottles, bubble gum, butane, cameras, candles, car batteries, car bodies, carpet, cassette tapes, caulking, CDs, chewing gum, cold,

combs/brushes, computers, contacts, cortisone, crayons, cream, denture adhesives, deodorant, detergents, dice, dishwashing liquid, dresses, dryers, electric blankets,

electrician’s tape, fertilizers, fishing lures, fishing nets, fishing rods, floor wax, footballs, glues, glycerin, golf balls, guitar strings, hair coloring, hair curlers, hearing aids, heart valves, heating oil, house paint, ice chests, ink, insect repellent, insulation, jet fuel, life

jackets, linoleum, lip balm, lipstick, loudspeakers, medicines, mops, motor oil, motorcycle helmets, movie film, nail polish, nylons, oil filters, paddles, paint brushes,

paints, parachutes, paraffin, pens, perfumes, petroleum jelly, plastic chairs, plastic cups, plastic forks, plastic wrap, plywood adhesives, refrigerators, roller-skate wheels, roofing

paper, rubber bands, rubber boots, rubber cement, rubbish bags, running shoes, saccharine, seals, shirts (non-cotton), shoe polish, shoes, shower curtains, solvents,

solvents, spectacles, stereos, sweaters, table tennis balls, tape recorders, telephones, tennis rackets, thermos, tights, toilet seats, toners, toothpaste, transparencies,

transparent tape, TV cabinets, typewriter/computer ribbons, tires, umbrellas, upholstery, vaporizers, vitamin capsules, volleyballs, water pipes, water skis, wax, wax paper

Peak Oil means Peak Food

Food riots in Haiti, Africa, West Bengal…

Peak Oil means the end of cheap air travel

Peak Oil means the end of affordable air travel

Peak Oil may mean the end of economic growth as we have known it

“We must leave oil before it leaves us.”

Fatih Birol

Chief Economist

International Energy Agency

It’s not just oil…

Post Carbon Institute

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1950 2000 2050 2100

Worldwide possible coal production M toe

OECD North America

China

LA

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

SouthAsia

East Asia

FSU

subbituminous

subbituminous

bituminous

bituminous

bituminous

bituminous

lignitelignite

lignite

lignite

lignitelignite

bituminous

Year

WEO 2006: Reference scenario

WEO 2006: Alternative policy scenario

OIL, GAS & COAL PRODUCTION PROFILES

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gbo

e

Coal

Non-con Gas

Gas

NGL

Polar

Deepwater

Heavy etc

Regular oil

Depleting materials Antimony China Thermoelectric/paraelectric materialsBarium China Thermoelectric/paraelectric materialsBismuth China, Mexico Thermoelectric/paraelectric materialsCobalt Kinshasa, Australia PhotovoltaicsGallium China PhotovoltaicsGermanium Belgium, Canada PhotovoltaicsIndium China, Canada Photovoltaics, thermo/paraelectric materialsManganese Gabon, S. Africa PhotovoltaicsNickel Canada Fuel cellsPlatinum S. Africa Fuel cells, para/thermoelectric materialsRare Earths China Fuel cells, para/thermoelectric materials Tellurium Belgium, Germany Solar cells, semiconductorsTitanium Australia, S. Africa Solar cellsZinc Canada, Mexico Photovoltaics, fuel cells

Axiom 5

• Sustainability requires that substances introduced into the environment from human activities be minimized and rendered harmless to biosphere functions.

Arctic sea ice• Reinforcing feedback loops

• Last year’s record minimum: 1 million sq. miles; previous record low was 1.5 M s/m in 2005

• This year: another record rate of loss

• Northwest and Northeast passages open for first time in history

The Energy Transition

• Climate Change makes the shift from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survival

• Depletion and decline mean the transition cannot be avoided—our choice is whether to undertake it proactively

Inevitable future trends:

• Less available energy

• More labor needed in agriculture

• Need for massive relocation of people

• Need for massive replacement of infrastructure

Question: How to accomplish this enormous societal reorganization without chaotic breakdown?

Answer:• Plan for gradual, deliberate reduction in

world population

• Reduce per-capita consumption in industrial nations

• Shift consumption away from non-renewables (esp. fossil fuels)

• Retrain & re-skill workers while investing in post-petroleum infrastructure

• Protect ecosystems during the transition

PostCarbon.org