Sustainability, Population, and
Resource Depletion
Sustainability, Population, and
Resource Depletion
Richard HeinbergRichard HeinbergPost Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute
October 6, 2008October 6, 2008
Richard HeinbergRichard HeinbergPost Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute
October 6, 2008October 6, 2008
What is sustainability?
• 1712 “sustainable yield forestry”
• 1987 Brundtland Report: “development that meets current needs without jeopardizing the ability of future generations to meet theirs”
Five Axioms of Sustainability
Axiom 1
• A society that continues to use resources unsustainably will collapse.
Collapse of previous civilizations
• Resource depletion a frequent cause
• Societal complexity yields benefits…
• but those benefits are subject to diminishing returns
Axiom 2
• Population growth and/or growth in rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained.
Axiom 3
• To be sustainable, the use of renewable resources must proceed at a rate that is less than or equal to that of natural replenishment.
Marine Fish Catch
topsoil
World population grows 80 million people per year
Erosion claims 24 billion tons of topsoil per year
Biodiversity loss
Axiom 4
• To be sustainable, the use of non-renewable resources must be declining at a rate greater than or equal to the rate of depletion.
US Oil Production
The Fossil-Fueled
Industrial Era—
Winning the Winning the Energy LotteryEnergy Lottery
Global production falls when loss of output from countries in
decline exceeds gains in output from those expanding
Decline
Expansion
New discoveries look promising…
• Brazil
• Gulf of Mexico
• Bakken shale (Montana)
• Arctic regions
But before we count new inputs, we have to subtract declines
• Russia’s oil production has peaked (Financial Times, April 14, 2008)
• Nigeria to lose a third of its oil output by 2015 (AFP, April 16, 2008)
Peak Oil means more expensive gasoline…and
everything else made from oilplastics, lubricants, asphalt, ammonia, anti-histamines, antiseptics, artificial turf, aspirin,
balloons, bandages, boats, bottles, bubble gum, butane, cameras, candles, car batteries, car bodies, carpet, cassette tapes, caulking, CDs, chewing gum, cold,
combs/brushes, computers, contacts, cortisone, crayons, cream, denture adhesives, deodorant, detergents, dice, dishwashing liquid, dresses, dryers, electric blankets,
electrician’s tape, fertilizers, fishing lures, fishing nets, fishing rods, floor wax, footballs, glues, glycerin, golf balls, guitar strings, hair coloring, hair curlers, hearing aids, heart valves, heating oil, house paint, ice chests, ink, insect repellent, insulation, jet fuel, life
jackets, linoleum, lip balm, lipstick, loudspeakers, medicines, mops, motor oil, motorcycle helmets, movie film, nail polish, nylons, oil filters, paddles, paint brushes,
paints, parachutes, paraffin, pens, perfumes, petroleum jelly, plastic chairs, plastic cups, plastic forks, plastic wrap, plywood adhesives, refrigerators, roller-skate wheels, roofing
paper, rubber bands, rubber boots, rubber cement, rubbish bags, running shoes, saccharine, seals, shirts (non-cotton), shoe polish, shoes, shower curtains, solvents,
solvents, spectacles, stereos, sweaters, table tennis balls, tape recorders, telephones, tennis rackets, thermos, tights, toilet seats, toners, toothpaste, transparencies,
transparent tape, TV cabinets, typewriter/computer ribbons, tires, umbrellas, upholstery, vaporizers, vitamin capsules, volleyballs, water pipes, water skis, wax, wax paper
Peak Oil means Peak Food
Food riots in Haiti, Africa, West Bengal…
Peak Oil means the end of cheap air travel
Peak Oil means the end of affordable air travel
Peak Oil may mean the end of economic growth as we have known it
“We must leave oil before it leaves us.”
Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
International Energy Agency
It’s not just oil…
Post Carbon Institute
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Worldwide possible coal production M toe
OECD North America
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OECD Europe
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bituminous
lignitelignite
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WEO 2006: Alternative policy scenario
OIL, GAS & COAL PRODUCTION PROFILES
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Depleting materials Antimony China Thermoelectric/paraelectric materialsBarium China Thermoelectric/paraelectric materialsBismuth China, Mexico Thermoelectric/paraelectric materialsCobalt Kinshasa, Australia PhotovoltaicsGallium China PhotovoltaicsGermanium Belgium, Canada PhotovoltaicsIndium China, Canada Photovoltaics, thermo/paraelectric materialsManganese Gabon, S. Africa PhotovoltaicsNickel Canada Fuel cellsPlatinum S. Africa Fuel cells, para/thermoelectric materialsRare Earths China Fuel cells, para/thermoelectric materials Tellurium Belgium, Germany Solar cells, semiconductorsTitanium Australia, S. Africa Solar cellsZinc Canada, Mexico Photovoltaics, fuel cells
Axiom 5
• Sustainability requires that substances introduced into the environment from human activities be minimized and rendered harmless to biosphere functions.
Arctic sea ice• Reinforcing feedback loops
• Last year’s record minimum: 1 million sq. miles; previous record low was 1.5 M s/m in 2005
• This year: another record rate of loss
• Northwest and Northeast passages open for first time in history
The Energy Transition
• Climate Change makes the shift from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survival
• Depletion and decline mean the transition cannot be avoided—our choice is whether to undertake it proactively
Inevitable future trends:
• Less available energy
• More labor needed in agriculture
• Need for massive relocation of people
• Need for massive replacement of infrastructure
Question: How to accomplish this enormous societal reorganization without chaotic breakdown?
Answer:• Plan for gradual, deliberate reduction in
world population
• Reduce per-capita consumption in industrial nations
• Shift consumption away from non-renewables (esp. fossil fuels)
• Retrain & re-skill workers while investing in post-petroleum infrastructure
• Protect ecosystems during the transition
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