sustainability of tourism development - politecnico di...
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Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Sustainability of tourism developmentA theoretical approach to tourism sustainability
Renato Casagrandi and Sergio Rinaldi (2002) Conservation Ecology 6(1): 13
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol6/iss1/art13/
• What is sustainability? A problematic definition
• Prototypical trajectories in tourism development
• A minimal model (its spirit and the assumed functional forms)
• Profitable, compatible and sustainable policies
• Key results and further developments
Outline
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Sustainability...“The notion of sustainability is a vague and elusive one” (Ludwig, 1993)
The environmental viewpoint
Environmental quality preserved through time
Production yield (for applied biologists) o conservation of abundance and diversity in communities (for ecologists)
How can sustainability be defined?
The economic viewpoint
Economic development sustained through time
(development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability offuture generations to meet their own needs)
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
...of tourist development at the GLOBAL SCALESource: World Tourist Organization
http://www.unwto.org/
Growth rate
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Wor
ld
Afric
aAm
erica
sEa
st A
sia
Euro
peM
iddl
e Ea
stSo
uth
Asiaperc
enta
ge (%
)
00/9901/00
From the 25 milions of tourist worldwide in 1950...
International Tourist Arrivals 1950-2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1950
1965
1975
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Year
Mill
ions
of t
ouris
ts
Middle-EastAfricaAsia and the PacificAmericasEurope
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
after Butler (1980)
...of tourist development at the LOCAL SCALE
?t → ∞
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Case studies: Brighton (U.K.)
Britain Agarwal 1997Indonesia Dahles and Bras 1999
Peru O'Hare and Barrett 1997 Swaziland Harrison 1995
Cyprus Akis et al. 1996 Melanesia Douglas 1997
Many other examples...
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Scientific literature and tourismFrom abstract discussions…“Sustainable tourism is the one that is capable of persisting through time, i.e. capable of responding to expectations of the residents and the tourists without diminishing the resource stock nor the quali-quantitative level of touristic experience
Schmidt et al. (1996)
… to detailed models (simulation and or optimization) van der Borg e Russo (1997)
Max Y = 221 TA + 85.4 TE + 53 ES...PAM = ... < 70.000VSM = ... < 15.000
Y = carrying capacity of tourists in VeneziaTA = Hotel tourists; TE = Extra-hotel tourists; ES = ExcursionistsPAM = Seats at restaurant at launch time VSM = Visitors that can simultaneously visit the Basilica di S. Marco
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
A minimal model
......
...
TE
C
=
= =
Possible outcomes
parameters(investement, prices, competition, ...)
Bifurcation analysis
1
4
32
p2
p1
C
E
T
A 1 BINASCOE
T
A 1
TIROLOE
T
A 1
MONTECARLO
C C
Binasco Tyrol Monte Carlo
E
TA 1
A 2
C
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Hypotheses:
• The investments are a fixed proportion of total revenues
• The revenues are proportional to the number of tourists
The Capital
( ), ,C I T E C C= − δwhere
( ), ,I T E C T= ε
( ), ,I T E C Investment flow
Cδ Depreciation flow
Choosing a functional form for I
Investment rate
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
The Environment
( ) ( )1 , ,EE rE D T E CK= − −where
( ), ,D T E C Flow of environmental damages caused by the presence of tourists and capital
Our choice: a bilinear form
( ) ( ), ,D T E C E C T= β + γ
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
The tourists
( )ˆ , ,T T a T E C a = ⋅ − dove a = expected attractiveness of a generic site
that increases with local prices and decreases with price of alternative sites
( )ˆ , ,a T E C = absolute attractiveness (perceived) of the site, it is the sum of 3 contributes
αT−(Rimini = +αT )( )
( )1
1CC
C TC T
+µ
+ + ϕ(C = consumption good )
EE
EE
µ+ ϕ
E
µE
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
The model
( ) ( ) ( )( )
( )( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
1
E CE C C
E t C tT t T t T t a
E t C t T t
E tE t E t rE t C t T t
K
C C t T t
= µ + µ − α −
+ ϕ + ϕ + ϕ
= − −β − γ
= −δ + ε Key parameters?
POLICY PARAMETERS(dependent on agents)
Examples:• β = environmental impact• ε = investment
SYSTEM PARAMETERS(independent of agents)
Esempi:• µ, ϕ = tourists’ culture• a = competition
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Can the model mimic Butler’s trajectories
low ε
medium ε
high ε
low ε medium ε high ε
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
How can policiesbe catalogued?
Judgment
Structuralproperty ofattractors
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
The ECONOMIC viewpoint
( ) if
such that 0
UNPROFI
PROFI
TABLEotherwi
L
s
TAB E
e
iA T t∃ >
Definition:
A policy is
Nota bene:This definition does not reduce to
the concept of sustainabledevelopment commonly
used in economics
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
PROFITABLE policies
( ) if
such tR
hat 0
SAFEotherwis
ISKY
e
jA T t∃ =
Further subdivision:
A profitable policy is said
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
The ENVIRONMENTAL viewpoint
( ) if
such that 0
NOT COMPATIBLEoth
C
e
OMPATI
rwise
BLE
iA E t∃ >
Definition:
A policy is said
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
COMPATIBLE policies
( ) if
such tR
hat 0
SAFEotherwis
ISKY
e
kA E t∃ =
Further subdivision:
A policy is said
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
SUSTAINABLEPolicies
( ) ( ) if
such that , 0
UNSUSTAINABLEotherwis
SUSTAINABLE
e
iA T t E t∃ >
Def: A policy is said
( )
( )
( ) ( )
at if such that 0
at if such that 0
S
ECONOMIC RISK
if such that ,
AF
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
0E
j
k
i
A T t
A E
Ai
t
T t E t
∃ =∃ = >∀
Nota: SUSTANABLE PROFITABLE and COMPATIBLE,but not viceversa!
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Sustainability diagram
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Renato CasagrandiAMPSS 2008 – http://corsi.dei.polimi.it/AMPSS2008
Further directions
• Other investment policies
Conclusions
( ) ( ), ,I T I T E C→• Model extensions
( )( )
1 2
1 2
,
,
T T T
C C C
→
→
• Sustainability can be defined in a rough but formal way(see also Casagrandi and Rinaldi 2005)
• In the case of tourism, it is very difficult to followsustainable paths with slowly changing policies