Applying Fuzzy Logic to AssessSocial, Economic, and Ecological

Sustainability

A Quantitative Approach Applied to theTongass National Forest

Title #2:

Using Knowledge Base Architecture to Assess the Complexities of FMU

Sustainability

A Quantitative Approach Applied to theTongass National Forest

Sustainability in the 1980’sHarvest <= Growth, NDY, LTSY, PNVFORPLAN (LP) used to calculate Allowable Sale Quantities (ASQ)ASQ was often a target, not a ceilingHuge models on huge machinesNo one could question the resultsDifficult to analyze non-market resources

1990sClinton, environmental movement, politicsRecreation/tourism Use ExplosionTongass Revision underway, Involvement of SciencePulp Mills Close, Final Tongass PlanGIS, Internal Demands for Accountability Demands for Ecosystem SustainabilitySantiago Agreement, Montreal, Certification

Bruntland Commission ReportDefined sustainability as:

”the management of the human use of the biosphere so that it may yield the greatest sustainable benefit to present generations while maintaining the potential to meet the needs and aspirations of future generations.”

Our take on Sustainability3 Equal Principles: Ecological, Economic, and SocialBased on Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators (a systems approach)Evaluate at the Forest Management Unit (a very significant element)We would go the distance (all the way to reference values)

Criteria and IndicatorsPrinciple – Ecological Sustainability, etc. (3-7)Criteria – Maintain old growth dependent bird habitat (4-20)Indicator – Average number of snags per harvested acre (1-many)Measure (data) – Total snags/Total harvested acresReference Value – > 3 snags per acre is OK

Sustainable Forest Monitoring Initiatives

Bruntland Commission Market ForcesSantiago Declaration

Montreal Process Helsinki Accord

National/International Reporting Initiatives

National Scale

C&I Set

National Scale

C&I Set

Forest Management Unit Initiatives

CIFOR

Regional FMU Tests e.g., CIFOR-NA (Boise)

LUCID

Certification Initiatives

FSC, AFPA, Smartwood, SCS

Various Forest and Product Certification

Sustainable Forest Monitoring Initiatives

Bruntland Commission Market ForcesSantiago Declaration

Montreal Process Helsinki Accord

National/International Reporting Initiatives

National Scale

C&I Set

National Scale

C&I Set

Forest Management Unit Initiatives

CIFOR

Regional FMU Tests e.g., CIFOR-NA (Boise)

Tongass

Certification Initiatives

FSC, AFPA, Smartwood, SCS

Various Forest and Product Certification

Field-level Realities

Foundations of the C&I ApproachDespite geographic differences, efforts should be made to harmonize indicator measures and reporting.The time dimension of indicators must be considered. Trends are essential in evaluating the status of ecosystem sustainability.An acceptance of using qualitative and subjective measures for indicators.Select indicators to build common understanding of what is meant by ecosystem sustainability.

Foundations Simplified

PortableRepeatableDeal with FuzzinessSensible

Our Approach3 Principles of Equal Weight: Ecological, Social, and EconomicFuzzy Logic to deal with uncertainty, expert opinion, and traditional ecological knowledgeSpatially display resultsClear definitions backed by documented assumptions and referencesNo more smoke and mirrors

The Fuzzy Logic Concept

Age (Years)21

Adult-ness

(DM)

1

0

Pseudo-Fuzzy Logic

Age (Years)21

Adult-ness

(DM)

1

-1

0

(redefined fuzzy parameters)

Key TermsBoolean vs. Fuzzy LogicKnowledge BaseInference Engine

Technical AspectsEasy to build a Netweaver Knowledge Base (KB)KB’s are very portableUse of Linguistic VariablesIncorporation of Risk and UncertaintyCopes with Missing DataDegree of Membership (DM) is not Probability

Tentatively Suitable Land ProcessIdentification of Lands Suitable for Timber Harvest – This process is required in old and new regulations (219.28)

Six attributes to evaluate:

3)Regen/volume: Boolean (YorN), no change

1)Legislatively removed: Boolean (YorN), no change

2)Forested: Boolean (YorN), no change

4)Slope: Fuzzify

-1

1

-1

1

5)Site Index: Fuzzify

-1

1

6)MM Haz: Fuzzify

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The Tongass Sustainability Model