sustainability a path to peace final 11122015

Peace Center Thursday November 12, 2015

by

Tony Green

"Sustainability as a path to peace: How to prevent future wars over our water

supply”

Copyright @ Tony Green 2015

Agenda

1. Is water the next oil?2. The key to our livelihood 3. Water Scarcity4. And its associated problems5. How has it come to this?6. Have we come to blows over water?7. Where there is conflict there is resolution but at a price 8. The solutions are….9. The choice is ours


“Whisky is for drinking; water is for fighting over,”


Water – essential for human survival – is also necessary for nearly every sector of human activity, including agriculture, industrial production and power generation, and as a key means for transporting people and goods.


Less than one percent of the Earth’s drinkable water is readily accessible for direct human uses.

Earth’s surface is covered by 71% waterEssential for life – can survive only a few days without water

By 2030, 47 percent of the world’s population will be living in areas of high “water stress.”

http://www.centralia.edu/academics/envscience/envs100Hueckel/envs150N/chap09.ppt. http://peoplestribune.org/pt-news/2015/05/water-is-a-human-right/


http://www.centralia.edu/academics/envscience/envs100Hueckel/envs150N/chap09.ppt


Water Scarcity


Small fraction (.014%) is readily available for human use


Water Scarcity


https://www.ied.edu.hk/esdweb/aids/water.ppt

https://www.ied.edu.hk/esdweb/aids/water.ppt

Water Scarcity


http://www.slideshare.net/LisaMartinez78247/water-presentation-final-ppt

More than one out of six people lack access to safe drinking water

More than two out of six lack adequate sanitation

3900 children die every day from water-borne diseases

http://www.slideshare.net/LisaMartinez78247/water-presentation-final-ppt

How have we come to this?


Climate Change


Global Population


As of 9:00 A.M, P.S.T. November 7

7,379,526,826http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

80% probability 9.6 billion

and 12.3 billion by 2050Source: the guardian.com

Growing by 1.18 % per

year, or an additional

83 million people

annually. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 1World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables

Water Use and Source Contradiction


Population and water distribution don’t always correspond, often leaving highly populated regions with little access to

water.

Asia which has to support 60% of the world population with only 36% of the worlds water.

The Middle East which has to support 5% of the world population with only 1% of the worlds renewable water

sources.Source: http://www.princeton.edu/~ina/infographics/water.html

Source: Water Wars by Diane Raines Ward

History


“Most of the major rivers in Europe and water, generally

speaking, have been used as boundaries between countries

throughout history”

Possible end result?


Two main factors for water shortage: dry climate and too many people. Many people live in hydro poverty – can’t afford clean water

“Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict & wars in the future.” Kofi Annan, March 2001

"Many people think that in the middle east is water and not oil will be the source of the next wars" Allan Hammond, World Resources Institute


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/opinion/23ihtedwatkins. 2570814.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print

Possible end result?

Have we come to blows?In the past 50 years there have been 1,821 instances of water related interactions between countries,

The vast majority 1,228 ended peacefully.

Only 21 involved actual military violence (18 between Israel and its neighbors).

http://www.princeton.edu/~ina/infographics/water.htmlCopyright @ Tony Green 2015

Despite this gloomy scenario, war is unlikely, according to

history: no nations have gone to war specifically

over water resources for thousands of years.

In The End…

Source : Water, Conflict, and Cooperation: Lessons From the Nile River Basin By Patricia Kameri-Mbote

DOES NOT MEAN THE POSSIBILITY DOES NOT EXIST

FOR WARS IN THE FUTURE


Lake Chad


When it was full, Lake Chad was the sixth largest lake in the world.

But now due to the declining rain fall and ever intensifying human use it has shrunk to 1/20 of its original sizeSource: Al Gore’s an inconvenient truth Page 117

Lake Chad


When Nigerian fisherman followed the receding water

into neighboring Cameroon hey sparked military fire fights and

international legal disputes. When farmers began to till the

former lake bottom battles over property rights erupted.

Source: Al Gore’s an inconvenient truth Page 117

Israel

Copyright @ Tony Green 2015 http://www.oilempire.us/water.html

Six day war of 1967

Before it ended Israel had annexed the Golan heights; it took the West Bank from Jordan along with one third of the kingdom most fertile land and it seized Gaza from Egypt. All of it secured precious water for Israel.

Arab league angered at Israel construction of its National Water Carrier, which appropriated much of the water of the Jordan River for use in Israel

Nile River


Egypt and Sudan hold absolute rights to use 100 percent of the river’s water under agreements reached in 1929 between Egypt and Britain.

Of all the world’s water-deprived regions, none encompasses more conflicts ongoing and potential than the lands along the Nile.

Two-Thirds of the African population threatened by

water scarcity and famine.

Ethiopia has 84 percent of the Nile gushing out of its gorges.

Except Egypt none are wealthy enough to build large water projects without foreign and technical help.

India and Pakistan


India

Pakistan

The Indus

The Indus flows from Himlayanmountains in Tibet in China to the

Arabian Sea

Shared by India and Pakistan, at the time of partition (when English rule ceased and India and Pakistan were

carved up)

India cut off water in 1948. Pakistan protested; Indian stance was Pakistan should accept Indian rights over water

Pakistan refused

Solutions

Technology

CooperationCopyright @ Tony Green 2015

Solutions - Desalination

Source: dreamstme.comSource: ITT Water Equipment Technologies & Flowtronex ITT Flowtronex


Solutions - Desalination


Solutions – Fog Harvesting


Takes advantage of the water vapor which is in the air we breathe which we normally cannot see

Solutions – Fog Harvesting


http://www.fogquest.org/project-information/current-projects/

Solutions – Indus Water Treaty of 1960


http://inweh.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Water-Cooperation-Views-on-Progress-and-the-Way-Forward.pdf

.

Solutions – Trilateral Water Institute



Solutions – 1994 Peace Treaty



Solutions – Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia



Solutions – Nile Basin Initiative


Source : Global Issues Seminar Series January 25, 2006 The Global Water Challenge:Poverty, Growth & International Relations

Solutions - Aquifer


Tie In to Sustainability?


http://sustainability.tufts.edu/wp-content/uploads/Sustainabilityvenndiagram.pdf

Remember the Price


A Soldier’s Last Words: I am sorry that it has come to this

We should demand an end to the abuse of military members and a return to a foreign policy that promotes peace and prosperity instead of war and poverty. – Congressman Ron Paul

http://ourpeacecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Daniel-Somers-Suicide-350-250.jpg

http://ourpeacecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Daniel-Somers-Suicide-350-250.jpg

“A drop of water is the basis for living, andwithout it there can be no development

and no peace”

- Fadel Kawash – Former Palestinian Commissioner for the West Bank


sustainability a path to peace final 11122015

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