5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 1/16

lonephotowolfonflickr

SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleCHRISTIANRUDDER,OKTRENDSJAN.13,2011,11:09AM

Thispost

investigatesfemaleattractiveness,butwithouttheusualphotoanalysisstuff.Instead,welookpastawoman'spicture,intothereactionshecreatesinthereptilemindofthehumanmale.

Amongtheremarkablethingswe'llshow:

Themoremenasagroupthatdisagreeaboutawoman'slooks,themoretheyenduplikingher

Guystendtoignoregirlswhoaremerelycute

Havingsomementhinkagirlisuglycanactuallyworkinawoman'sfavor.

Fairwarning:we'reabouttoobjectifywomen,bigtime.ThewholepurposeofthisblogistoanalyzeOkCupid'sdata,andwithoutalittlebitofobjectificationthat'simpossible.Menwillgettheirturnunderthemicroscopesoonenough.Asusual,noneofthis(withtheexceptionofthecelebrityexamples)ismyopinion.Alldataiscollectedfromactualuseractivity.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 2/16

OkCupid

Let'sstartatthebeginning.

Herearetheshockingresults>>Note:thisstudywasoriginallypostedonOkCupid'sOkTrendsandhasbeenrepublishedherewithpermission.

ReadtheoriginalarticleonOkTrends.Copyright2011.

Ahotwomanreceivesroughly4themessagesanaveragelookingwomangets,and25asmanyasanuglyoneAllpeople,butespeciallyguys,spendadisproportionateamountofenergysearchingfor,browsing,andmessagingourhottestusers.AsI'venotedbefore,ahotwomanreceivesroughly4themessagesanaveragelookingwomangets,and25asmanyasanuglyone.Gettingswampedwithmessagesdrivesusers,especiallywomen,away.Sowehavetoanalyzeandredirectthistendency,lestOkCupidbecomesausageparty.com.

Everysooftenwerundiagnosticplotsliketheonehere,showinghowmanymessagesasamplingof5,000women,sortedbyattractiveness,receivedoverthelastmonth.

Thesegraphsareadjustedforrace,location,age,profilecompleteness,loginactivity,andsoontheonlymeaningfuldifferencebetweenthepeopleplottedistheirlooks.Afterrunningabunchofthese,webegantoaskourselves:whatelseaccountsforthewidespreadofthex's,particularlyonthe"aboveaverage"halfofthegraph?Isitjustrandomness?

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 3/16

So,whatisitaboutthisgirl...

OkCupid

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 4/16

...Thatgetsmoreattentionthanthisgirl?

OkCupid

...eventhoughaccordingtoourusers,they'rebothgoodlooking?

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 5/16

OkCupid

OkCupid

Notall7sarethesameItturnsoutthatthefirststeptounderstandingthisphenomenonistogodeeperintothemathematicallydifferentwaysyoucanbeattractive.

Forexample,usingtheclassic10point'looks'scale,let'ssayaperson'sa7.Itcouldbethateveryonewhoseesherthinksexactlythat:she'sprettycute.

Butsomethingextremelikethiscouldjustaseasilybegoingon:Ifallweknowisthatsheisa7,there'snowaytotell.Maybeforsomeguysourhypotheticalwomanisthecat'spajamasandfortherestshe'sthecatGarfield.Whoknows?

Asitturnsout,thisdistributionofopinionsisveryimportant.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 6/16

Let'slookatKristenBell'sattractiveness

OkCupid

Let'slookatwhattheratingsdistributionmightbeforacouplefamouspeople.Iimaginethatfor,say,theactressKristenBellitwouldberoughlylikethis(ontheleft).

Ms.Bellisuniversallyconsideredgoodlooking,butit'snotlikeshe'sasupermodeloranything.Shewouldprobablygetafewvotesinthe'superhot'range,lotsaround'veryattractive',andalmostnoneatthe'unattractive'endofthegraph.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 7/16

Let'sexamineMeganFox

OkCupid

Onthefarright,youhavethemanydudeswhothinkshe'sthesexiestthingever.Onthefarleft,youhavethesmallnumberofpeoplewhohaveseenhermovies.

UnlikeMs.Bell,Ms.Foxproducesastrongreaction,evenifit'ssometimesnegative.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 8/16

OkCupid

Now,let'slookateverydaypeopleagain:Nowlet'slookbackatthetworealusersfrombefore,thistimewiththeirowngraphs.OkCupidusesa1to5starsystemforratingpeople,sotherestofourdiscussionwillbeinthoseterms.Alltheuserspicturedweregenerousandconfidentenoughtoallowustodissecttheirexperienceonoursite,andweappreciateit.They'repicturedhereontheleft.

Asyoucansee,thoughtheaverageattractivenessforthetwowomenaboveisveryclose,theirvotepatternsdiffer.Ontheleftyouhaveconsensus,andontherightyouhavesplitopinion.

Toputafinepointonit:

Ms.Leftis,inanabsolutesense,consideredslightlymoreattractive

Ms.Rightwasalsogiventhelowestrating142%moreoften

YetMs.Rightgets3asmanymessages

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 9/16

OkCupid

LessmessagedwomenondatingsitesareusuallyconsideredconsistentlyattractiveWhenwebeganpairingotherpeopleofsimilarlooksandprofiles,butdifferentmessageoutcomes,thispatternpresenteditselfagainandagain.Thelessmessagedwomanwasusuallyconsideredconsistentlyattractive,whilethemoremessagedwomanoftencreatedvariationinmaleopinion.Hereareacouplemoreexamplesontheleft.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 10/16

OkCupid

Themoremendisagreeaboutawoman'slooks,themoretheylikeher.Wefeltlikewereontosomething,so,beingmathnerds,weputonsweatpants.Thenwedidsomework.

Ourfirstresultwastocomparethestandarddeviationofawoman'svotestothemessagesshegets.Themoremendisagreeaboutawoman'slooks,themoretheylikeher.Wefoundthatthemoremendisagreeaboutawoman'slooks,themoretheylikeher.I'veplottedthedeviationvs.messagescurvebelow,againincludingsomeexamples.

Thewomenalongthegrapharenearthe80thpercentileinoverallattractiveness.Asyoucansee,awomangetsabetterresponsefrommenasmenbecomelessconsistentintheiropinionsofher.

AttractivenesscanbebrokendownintoasimpleequationOurnextstepwastoanalyzeawoman'sactualvotepatternof1s,2s,3s,4s,and5s:

Thisrequiredabitmoremathandishardertoexplainwithasimplelinechart.Basically,wederivedaformulatopredicttheamountofattentionawomangets,basedonthecurveofhervotes.Withthiswecantranslatewhatguysthinkofawoman'slooksintohowmuchattentionsheactuallygets.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 11/16

OkCupidTheequationwearrivedatmightlookopaque,butwhenwegetintoit,we'llseeitsayssomefunnythingsaboutguysandhowtheydecidewhichwomentohiton.

Themostimportantthingtounderstandisthatthemsarethemenvotingonherlooks,makinguphergraph,likeso:

Andthosemswithpositivenumbersinfrontcontributetomessagingtheoneswithnegativenumberssubtractfromit.Here'swhatthisformulaistellingus...

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 12/16

rutloviaFlickr

jypsygenviaFlickr

Themoremenwhosayyou'rehot,themoremessagesyouget.Howweknowthisbecausethe.1coefficientinfrontofm4isnegative.Thistellsusthatguysgivingyoua'4',whoareactuallyratingyouaboveaveragelooking,aretakingawayfromthemessagesyouget.Verysurprising.Infact,whenyoucombinethiswiththepositivenumberinfrontofthem1term,ourformulasaysthat,statisticallyspeaking:

Menwhothinkyou'recuteactuallysubtractfromyourmessagecount.Howweknowthisthe.9infrontofm5isthebiggestpositivenumber,meaningthattheguyswhothinkyou'reamazing(votingyouaperfect'5')arethestrongestcontributorstoyourmessagingincome.Thisiscertainlyanexpectedresultandgivesussomeindicationourformulaismakingsense.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 13/16

OkCupid

Ifsomeonedoesn'tthinkyou'rehot,thenextbestthingforthemtothinkisthatyou'reugly.Thisisaprettycrazyresult,buteverytimeweranthenumberschangingtheconstraints,tryingdifferentdatasamples,andsoonitcamebacktostareusintheface.Inplainscientificterms,itwaslikeababyweweretryingtodrownhadsomehowgrowngills.(ThishappensallthetimeinChina.)

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 14/16

OkCupid

Here'swhythisishappening:Sothisisourparadox:whensomementhinkyou'reugly,othermenaremorelikelytomessageyou.Andwhensomementhinkyou'recute,othermenbecomelessinterested.Whywouldthishappen?Perhapsalittlegametheorycanexplain:

Supposeyou'reamanwho'sreallyintosomeone.Ifyoususpectothermenareuninterested,itmeanslesscompetition.Youthereforehaveanaddedincentivetosendamessage.Youmightstartthinking:maybeshe'slonely...maybeshe'sjustwaitingtofindaguywhoappreciatesher...atleastIwon'tgetlostinthecrowd...maybethesesmallthoughts,plusthefactthatyoureallythinkshe'shot,prodyoutoaction.Yousendhertheperfectlycraftedopeningmessage.

"sup"

Ontheotherhand,awomanwithapreponderanceof'4'votes,someoneconventionallycute,butnottotallyhot,mightappeartobemoreindemandthansheactuallyis.Tothetypicalmanconsideringher,she'sobviouslyattractiveenoughtocreatetheimpressionthatotherguysareintoher,too.Butmaybeshe'shotenoughforhimtothrowcaution(andgrammar)tothewindandsendheramessage.It'sthecurseofbeingcute.

Theoverallpicturelookssomethinglikethis:

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 15/16

OkCupid

Whatthiscouldmeanforyou:Idon'tassumeeverywomancaresifguysnoticeherornot,butifyoudo,whatdoesalltheaboveanalysismeaninpracticalterms?

Well,fundamentally,it'shardtochangeyouroverallattractiveness(thebigsinglenumberweweretalkingaboutatthebeginning).However,thevarianceyoucreateisunderyourcontrol,andit'ssimpletomaximize:

Takewhateveryouthinksomeguysdon'tlikeandplayitup.

Asyou'veprobablyalreadynoticed,womenwithtattoosandpiercingsseemtohaveanintuitivegraspofthisprinciple.Theyshowoffwhatmakesthemdifferent,andwhocaresifsomepeopledon'tlikeit.Andtheygetlotsofattentionfrommen.

Butouradvicecanapplytoanyone.BrowsingOkCupid,Iseesomanyphotosthatareclearlydesignedtominimizesomesupposedlyunattractivetraittheclosecroppedpictureofapersonwho'sprobablyoverweightistheclassicexample.Wenowhavemathematicalevidencethatminimizingyour"flaws"istheoppositeofwhatyoushoulddo.Ifyou'realittlechubby,playitup.Ifyouhaveabignose,playitup.Ifyouhaveaweirdsnaggletooth,playitup:statistically,theguyswhodon'tlikeitcanonlyhelpyou,andtheoneswhodolikeitwillbeallthemoreexcited.

5/17/2015 SurprisingStatisticsAboutHotPeopleVersusUglyPeopleBusinessInsider

http://www.businessinsider.com/surprisingstatisticsabouthotpeopleversusuglypeople20111?IR=T&op=1 16/16

alachia

Beautyandbrainsareadeadlycombo.Doyouhaveboth?

20ScientificallyProvenSignsYou'reSmarterThanAverage>>

*Copyright2015BusinessInsiderInc.Allrightsreserved.