Surge and Decline

The Election of 2010

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.

• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election.

A Historical Perspective

The Presidential Surge

• The President pulls candidates along with him– 1980, 2008, 1964

• In a worst-case, he breaks even– 1984, 1996, 2004

The Midterm Decline

• The President’s Party Loses Seats

• They Take a bigger hit in the 6th Year

• 1934, 1998, and 2002

The Role of Midterm elections

• A referendum on the president

• A referendum on the economy

WHO VOTES IN THE MIDTERM

A Different Electorate

A Different Electorate

• More Partisans

• Less people there to support the president

• Less salient election

Withdrawn CoattailsCo

ngre

ssio

nal v

ote

for c

andi

date

of w

inni

ng p

resi

denti

al p

arty

Presidential Election Midterm Election

50%

Non-coattail effect

Non-coattail effect

Coattail effect

THE OLD THEORY OF SURGE AND DECLINE

Core vs. Peripheral Voters

Types of Voters

• Core Voters

• Peripheral voters

It is all about Peripheral Voters

• A Surge of Independent Voters

• Excited by the salience of the election

A Surge of Information

• Peripheral voters go to the polls

• The information surge favors the winning candidate

In the Midterm

• The peripherals stay at home resulting in lower turnout

• The Core voters turn out

Problems with the original theory

• The Midterm and presidential electorates are similar demographically

• The partisan differences aren’t that much different

• Peripherals are not running the show!

THE REVISED THEORY

The Disadvantaged Partisan

• More Likely to abstain than defect

• Cross Pressured

Winners and Losers

• In the General election– Surge among the advantaged party

– Decline among the losing party

• A One Sided Surge

In the Midterm

• Partisans Stay at Home

• So do Peripherals

In the Midyear

• The president’s party stays at home

• The Out- party comes out to vote against you.

• No Cross-pressures

The Big Differences in the Theory

• Advantaged Partisans Turn out Heavy

• Disadvantaged Partisans stay at Home

• Independents turn out like usual, but swing to the wining party.

LEADING FACTORS OF A MIDTERM LOSS

How You Know it is going to bad

• Exposure and Coattails

• Presidential Approval

• Economic Growth

The Elections of 2010

The Obama Dichotomy • President Obama had a

record of achievement not seen since LBJ.

• Each of these achievements produced positive and negative political consequences.

Health Care Reform

• Policy Success– The largest

accomplishment of the administration

• Policy Problems– Spent Political Capital – Delayed

Implementation

Opinion Remained Divided

The Stimulus Package

• Success– Potentially Staved off a

second depression

• Problems– High Price Tag– Did not meet

expectations

Voters were Split on its Effectiveness

War on Terror

Successes in Iraq

Problems in Afghanistan– More U.S. deaths in two

years of Obama Administration than in 8 years of Bush Administration

• Support Remains Divided

Financial Reform Bill

Success– The most sweeping bank

reform since the Great Depression

Problems– Critics on the Left say it

didn’t Go Far Enough– Economy has not

rebounded

Obama Shares the Blame

President Obama’s Policy Disconnect

• Major Policies did not directly affect ordinary voters in a meaningful way

• Many Voters viewed these major policies as half-empty, not half-full