vote fraud, vote suppression

30
Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression PS 450

Upload: kenaz

Post on 23-Feb-2016

29 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression. PS 450. Election fraud. What treats are there to the integrity of US elections? Trying to “steel elections” Illegal cheating Who? How?. Public Perceptions. How common Voter Fraud Vote Theft Very26%23% - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

PS 450

Page 2: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Election fraud

• What treats are there to the integrity of US elections?– Trying to “steel elections”– Illegal cheating

– Who?– How?

Page 3: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Public Perceptions

• How common Voter Fraud Vote TheftVery 26% 23%Occasionally 36% 37%Infrequently 20% 21%Almost Never 8% 8%

2007 CCES

Page 4: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Public Perceptions

• How common voter fraud (vote more than once or if not citizen) Dem RepVery 15% 35%Occasionally 36% 37%Infrequently 23% 21%Almost Never 13% 8%

2007 CCES

Page 5: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Public Perceptions

• How common vote theft (votes stolen or tampered with) Dem RepVery 23% 20%Occasionally 38% 36%Infrequently 19% 25%Almost Never 9% 11%

2007 CCES

Page 6: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Public Perceptions

• How common vote impersonation (claiming to be someone else) Dem RepVery Often 6% 11%Often 25% 42%Rarely30% 23%Very Rare 21% 5%

2008

Page 7: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Which are a ‘threat’?

• Partisan Secretaries of State• Forged petition signatures (initiatives)• False voter registrations• Buying votes, bribing• Ineligible people casting votes• Intimidation of voters• Rigged voting equipment

Page 8: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Forged petitions

• Paid signature collection to qualify ballot initiatives

• Some evidence of fraud (MT, DC)– Very little (if any) in WA

• For-pay system has safeguards• Who more likely to cheat, paid workers or

volunteers?

Page 9: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Forged petitions

• Creates demand for restrictions on petitioning• Is motive to kill initiatives?– Ban paying per-signature– ‘Scarlett Letter’ laws– Require petitioners register w/ state agency– Petitioners wear photo-ID– Petitioners swear affidavit on sig sheet• All sigs invalid if not signed?

Page 10: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Partisan Secretaries of State

• Scheduling initiative votes• Ruling on petitions• Overseeing recounts• Purging voter rolls• Challenging eligibility of voters• Locating polling places, staffing

Page 11: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Partisan Secretaries of State

• Examples• Katherine Harris, FL, 2000– Purging FL voter rolls

• Ken Blackwell, OH 2004– Refusing to count provisional ballots, restrict

distribution of ballots• Missouri, Matt Blunt 2004– Anti-gay initiative

Page 12: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Secretaries of State

• Proposal – Have office listed as non-partisan

– Public campaign funds for the office

Page 13: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

False Voter Registration

• Made famous by ACORN• Workers paid per-registration– Does this create incentives to “register” Mickey

Mouse, Homer Simpson?

• What evidence that falsely registered people cast votes?

Page 14: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

False Voter Registration

• Creates GOP demand for voter ID at polls– Photo ID• What % of voters lack photo ID

– Utility bill• Huge partisan split in perceptions• DOJ challenging some ID laws in states

covered by Voting Rights Act

Page 15: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Ineligible people voting

• Falsely registered

– Ex-felons– Non-citizen immigrants– People voting in multiple jurisdictions– Voting other person’s mail-in ballots

Page 16: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Ineligible people voting

• GW Bush DOJ study found no systematic voter fraud (study killed)

Page 17: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Partisan Split, Photo ID

Texas, 2011 House Vote Senate Vote

Republicans Yes 101 19Democrats Yes 0 0

Republicans No 0 0Democrats No 48 11

Floor vote on SJR 14

Page 18: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Partisan Split, Photo ID

Montana, 2011House Vote Senate Vote

Republicans Yes 65 27Democrats Yes 0 0

Republicans No 2 1Democrats No 32 22

Floor vote on HB 152

Page 19: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Partisan Split, Photo IDMaine, 2011

House Vote Senate VoteRepublicans Yes 74 18Democrats Yes 0 0Others Yes 0 0

Republicans No 0 2Democrats No 69 14Others No 1 1

Floor vote on LD 1376

Page 20: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana

Drivers Lic DL or ID cardWhite 81% 86%

Black 55% 73%

Page 21: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana

White Black

Page 22: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Photo ID Laws

Income LT $40K $40k-$80K Over $80K

Page 23: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Photo ID Laws, Study of Indiana

18-34 35-54 55-69 70+

Page 24: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Photo ID laws

Republican Democrat Ind.

Page 25: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Photo ID laws

• Uneven effects

• Modern Day poll tax?

Page 26: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Voter Intimidation

• At polling place• Anecdotes

– Orange Co, CA • Scare off Latino voters

– New Orleans 2002• Spread false info about voting dates

Page 27: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Vote Buying

• Paying people to vote for a candidate

• Isolated examples in small southern communities– DOJ prosecutes, convicts

• Difficult to orchestrate in election with large # of voters

Page 28: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Rigged Voting Equipment

• Vote Theft• Diebold conspiracy– OH 2004• Exit poll results vs. phone surveys vs.. reported vote

• Can electronic systems be hacked

• Ballots w/o “paper trail”

Page 29: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Rigged Equipment

• Difficulties– Decentralized administration (OH)

– Rigorous audits

Page 30: Vote Fraud, Vote Suppression

Fraud, or suppression

• Instances of systematic fraud affecting elections rare, if not existent

• Anecdotes used by partisans to shape composition of the electorate in their favor