supplier opportunities amidst the global energy transformation · 2018. 5. 17. · emerging market...

Supplier Opportunities Amidst the Global Energy TransformationBrandon Owens, GE Energy ConsultingMay 1, 2018

Copyright © General Electric Company 2017.

RENEWABLE ENERGY AND SMART GRID SUPPLIERS FORUMEmerging Market Opportunities for U.S. Firms

Embassy Suites Downtown Denver1420 Stout StreetDenver, CO 80202

Copyright © General Electric Company 2017. 2

Energy Use and Human Development

Global electricity use is expected to rise by

26% over the next decade.That’s a positive development for the world because increases in per capita energy use are positively correlated with increases in human development.


DECARBONIZATION ELECTRIFICATIONin energy ecosystem

ELECTRIFICATION OFENERGY USES, transport (EVs)

and heating

By 2040, RENEWABLES will represent 30% of global net

electricity … or more?

DECENTRALIZATION

GROWING PENETRATION of distributed resources

(renewable, storage, efficient devices)

IMPACT• End user becomes an active actor of the

power system (‘pro-sumer’)

• Growing complexity of distribution grids

IMPACT• Growth of Electricity demand, and an

acceleration of decentralization of the power sector

IMPACT • Generation is becoming difficult to

forecast & variable

• Grid stability, Congestion Volatility on electricity markets

DIGITIZATION

GROWING THE NUMBER of connected devices

& smart sensors

IMPACT• Allowing decision making based on

dynamic and nodal prices

• More efficient assets, greater revenue, environmental savings.

May 17, 2018 3

TRENDS DISRUPTING THE POWER SECTOR FROM GENERATION TO T&D

Copyright © General Electric Company.

Copyright © General Electric Company 2017. 4May 17, 2018

GE IS REIMAGINING THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY

The world is transitioning from an electricity system based primarily upon large, centralized generation, transmission and distribution (T&D) technologies, to one that also embraces distributed, digitally-enhanced, and low-carbon technologies.

We are honored and humbled to be part of the emerging twenty-first century global power system. We believe that the future has just begun and the best is yet to come.

The global power system is in the midst of a grand transformation

“”


Here Comes the Sun

Global electric capacity orders over the next decade will be roughly equivalent orders over the last decade … but the orders mix shifts dramatically.

• Solar PV captures the greatest share of orders

• Natural gas, wind, and hydropower continue to play a key role.

• Coal’s role will be focused on providing baseload power in emerging economies.

• Energy storage will emerge as a key technology in the decade ahead.

All technologies will continue to have a role to play in the decade ahead.


• ~31,000 TWh global generation by 2026

• All sources increase except oil

• Growth shifts globally to the east and south … away from traditional centers in North America and Europe

6

Change in Electricity Generation by Source (2016-2026)China(3.1%)

India(6.2%)

USA(0.7%)

Brazil(3.0%)

Indonesia(5.7%)

Vietnam(7.0%)

Saudi Arabia(3.4%)

Mexico(3.5%)

Iran(3.5%)

Turkey(3.7%)

Bangladesh & Neighbors (3.7%)

Egypt(4.9%)

FuelBiomassCoalNatural GasGeothermalHydroNuclearOilSolarWind

-250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

2.3%peryear

Between 2016 and 2026,Global electricity demand is expected to grow by


Serving Global Customers with Local Expertise

Copyright © General Electric Company.

• Difficult to supply equipment as a “global” company…need to localize

• Commit to developing markets individually…investment, time, local presence if possible

• May need to meet localization requirements… employment, training

• Consider local partners…distribution, JVs, technology

• Leverage favorable financing opportunities…expert credit agencies if available

• Be part of the local solution...infrastructure provider, jobs growth, environmental solutions

• Creativity, patience, persistence

Need to be present and committed to developing markets…play the long game, not the quick score

Copyright © General Electric Company 2017. 8

Power System Transformation

• Distributed power technologies creating the

need for two-way power flows.

• New technologies such as batteries are providing

opportunities throughout the T&D network.

• Transformative applications such as electric

transportation platforms are creating new synergies.

• Baseload power options—coal, gas and nuclear

power continue to expand.

A two-way, intelligent, hybrid electric power network is emerging.

Copyright © General Electric Company 2017.May 17, 2018


The Global Energy System Comes Full Circle

1900-1950: GE. By 1922, 175 MW power plants were being constructed.

1880 20101900 1920 1950 1970 1990

1882: Thomas Edison’s Pearl Street Station distributed power plant began supplying power in New York City.

1900: Distributed power plants account for 100% of global electric capacity additions.

1893: Rudolf Diesel develops the Diesel engine.

1950: Distributed power technologies account for less than 10% of global electric capacity additions.

1950-1960s: In 1957, Jenbacherbegan producing gas engines.

1994-2012: Jenbacher begins focusing on ultra-high efficiency engines.

2010: Distributed power technologies account for 1/3 of global electric capacity additions.

2010: GE’s aero-derivative portfolio includes turbines with power output from 13 to 100 MW

Distributed Power Age Central Power Period Electricity Transformation

2010-2020: Acceleration of Internet of Things (IoT) and the digitization of energy.

2010-2020: The emergence of distributed hybrid systems with digital controllers.

2020

2020: Increasingly economic energy storage systems emerge.


Technology improvements Fueling Distributed Energy GainsCost Declines (2010-2017)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Price ($/kWh)

% Reduction from 2010

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

U.S.

Germany

Chinese multi-module

Source: United National Environment Programme and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 2018. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2018. Frankfurt, Germany: Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. www.fs-unep-centre.org.

Lithium-Ion Battery Pack PriceGlobal Average ($/kWh)

Solar PV System Prices($/W-DC)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

04

20

06

20

07

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

17

Transistor Cost Index, 90nm = 100

% Decline in Cost Since 2010

Intel Transistor Manufacturing Costs(2004=100)


Distributed Energy Poised to RiseCapacity Installations (GW)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20172019202120232025

Small & MediumWind

Microturbines

Fuel Cells

Distributed EnergyStorage

Natural GasGensets

Microgrids

Distributed SolarPV

Distributed Energy Installed Capacity 2017-2026 (GW)

Distributed Energy Additions2018-2026 (GW)

39

17

12

12

Source: Rodriguez Labastida, Roberto, and Brett Feldman. 2017 Q4. Global DER Deployment Forecast Database. Boulder, CO: Navigant Consulting, Inc.


The Transformation Creates a World of Opportunities

• The global power system is transforming…it’s happening everywhere but at a different pace.

• This creates new opportunities for supplies with offerings that are focused on digitization, decarbonization, decentralization, and electrification.

• Standards, platforms, approaches not fully baked yet…opportunities exist to influence the direction.

• “All of the above” environment exists, legacy technologies are not going away, they are just being improved upon.

• Digitization is a must…huge value in integrating and controlling technologies, everything is “smart” now.

• Localize to take advantage of developing world opportunities

12

Creativity and flexibility will be the keys to success in this new era. Equipment suppliers must have the right technologies, platforms, and people to successfully lead this transition.

supplier opportunities amidst the global energy transformation · 2018. 5. 17. · emerging market...

Documents