sunday%20times%20september%202012%20%20poll

Sunday Times

/Behaviour &

Attitudes September 2012

Opinion Poll 4th – 9th September, 2012

Prepared for

Prepared by Ian McShane

J.3985

Technical Appendix

3

Technical Appendix

The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 923

eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.

As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.3

percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Fieldwork was conducted over the period Tuesday 4th – Sunday 9th September, 2012,

with interviewing carried out at the Behaviour & Attitudes Computer Aided

Telephone Interviewing (CATI) Unit at Milltown House in Dublin.

Interviewing was conducted across all 43 constituencies in the country with

households selected for interview by way of Random Digit Dialling (RDD).

The sample is split across RDD landline numbers and RDD mobile telephone numbers,

so as to ensure that individuals living in landline only households, mobile only

households, and households with both a landline and mobile telephone are

represented in their correct proportions.

4

Technical Appendix

The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile

of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates

from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical

adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in

support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking

variable election day turnout levels into account.

All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are

implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the

Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society

of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).

Charted Summary

6

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government

and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels

12th

February

2011 (f/w: 31st

Jan – 12th

Feb, 2011)

24th

August,

2011 (f/w 16th –

24th August,

2011)

2nd

October,

2011 (f/w 20th

Sept – 2nd

Oct, 2011)

18th

October,

2011 (f/w 16th –

18th Oct,

2011)

12th Dec.

2011 (f/w 7th-12th

Dec, 2011)

20th

February

2012 (f/w 15th –

20th Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012 (f/w 11th –

17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May

2012 (f/w 18th –

23rd May,

2012)

9th Sept.

2012 (f/w

4th -9th

Sept 2012)

The

Government

5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31% 24%

Micheál

Martin

43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41% 34%

Enda Kenny 40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42% 38%

Eamon

Gilmore

55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32% 34%

Gerry Adams 40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42% 39%

Eamon Ryan - 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 27%

Q.2

Q.3

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the

country?

Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his job as (…….)?

7

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party

Support Levels

12th

Feb.

2011 (f/w: 31st

Jan – 12th

Feb,

2011)

24th

August,

2011 (f/w 16th –

24th

August,

2011)

2nd

October,

2011 (f/w 20th

Sept – 2nd

Oct, 2011)

18th

October,

2011 (f/w 16th –

18th Oct,

2011)

12th

Dec.

2011 (f/w 7th-

12th Dec,

2011)

20th

Feb.

2012 (f/w 15th –

20th Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012 (f/w 11th –

17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May

2012 (f/w 18th –

23rd May,

2012)

9th

Sept.

2012 (f/w

4th -9th

Sept

2012)

Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 12%

Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 23%

Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8%

Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17% 13%

Green Party 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2%

Independents/

Others

10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12%

Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 30%

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

8

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support

Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)

12th

February

, 2011 (f/w: 31st

Jan – 12th

Feb, 2011)

General

Election

Result

25th

February

24th

August,

2011 (f/w 16th –

24th August,

2011)

2nd

October,

2011 (f/w 20th

Sept – 2nd

Oct, 2011)

18th

October,

2011 (f/w 16th –

18th Oct,

2011)

12th Dec.

2011 (f/w 7th-12th

Dec, 2011)

20th

February,

2012 (f/w 15th –

20th Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012 (f/w 11th –

17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May

2012 (f/w 18th –

23rd May,

2012)

9th Sept.

2012 (f/w

4th -9th

Sept 2012)

Fianna Fáil 15% 17% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 18%

Fine Gael 34% 36% 44% 36% 37% 30% 32% 32% 33% 33%

Labour 23% 19% 12% 14% 15% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11%

Sinn Féin 14% 10% 13% 17% 19% 21% 25% 20% 23% 19%

Green Party 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 2%

Independent

/Others

14% 16% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% 17% 14% 17%


9

Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical

Note

Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the

evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the

period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.

Generally speaking one expects support for Government parties to decline in mid

term with a corresponding rise in support for the Opposition. This is, of course,

particularly true when times are tough.

The present situation is compounded by the fact that we have a coalition

Government with quite different patterns of response among the constituent parties.

Fine Gael voters are - by and large - behind Mr. Kenny and the performance of his

Government. The same cannot be said for Labour and Mr. Gilmore. In these

circumstances one might expect a greater swing in mood against Labour: with the

opposition parties sharing a common base with them most likely to benefit.

10

Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical

Note

What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland

publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of

voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we

have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they

intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of

swing from the last election results.

We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not

answer that particular question.

Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a

forthcoming General Election.

This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.

11

Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)

Adjusted figures based on:

All who state they would definitely vote

Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a

general election and who they voted for in the last election, in line with the result of the last

election.

Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in

last election.

2nd

October,

2011 (f/w 20th

Sept – 2nd

Oct, 2011)

18th

October,

2011 (f/w 16th –

18th Oct,

2011)

12th Dec.

2011 (f/w 7th-12th

Dec, 2011)

20th

February

, 2012 (f/w 15th –

20th Feb.

2012)

17th

April,

2012 (f/w 11th –

17th Apr.

2012)

23rd May

2012 (f/w 18th –

23rd May,

2012)

9th Sept.

2012 (f/w

4th -9th

Sept 2012)

Fianna Fáil 16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16%

Fine Gael 34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33% 31%

Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14%

Sinn Féin 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 18%

Green Party 3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2%

Independents/

Others

17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18% 19%


12

Support for Abortion Where Mother’s Life at Risk

Q.8 Would you or would you not support a change in the law to permit abortion in cases where the life of the

mother is at risk?

Base: All

Eligible Voters

Total

Gender Age Class Region Area

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins

ter

Munster Conn/

Ulster

Urban Rural

Base: 923 449 474 298 344 281 430 458 35 253 239 251 179 624 299

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Would support

change 80 82 77 83 81 74 82 78 81 82 83 79 74 79 81

Would not

support change 14 12 17 13 12 18 12 15 17 12 14 15 17 14 14

Don’t know 6 6 6 4 6 8 5 7 2 6 3 6 9 7 5

13

Support for Abortion Where Mother’s Life at Risk

Base: All Eligible

Voters

Total

Party Support

Fianna

Fail

Fine Gael Labour Green

Party

Sinn Fein Indep

endent/

Others

Would

not/ DK

Base: 923 121 214 84 14 114 113 263

% % % % % % % %

Would support

change 80 79 84 91 91 75 85 74

Would not support

change 14 20 11 6 9 17 11 17

Don’t know 6 1 5 3 - 8 4 10

Q.8 Would you or would you not support a change in the law to permit abortion in cases where the life of the

mother is at risk?

Commentary

15

Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes

Opinion Poll Series Background

Interviewing for today’s poll took place over the period Tuesday 4th – Sunday 9th

September, 2012.

As such, fieldwork was conducted just over a week in advance of the resumption of the

Dail after the summer break, and just ahead of the Fine Gael and Labour Party think-ins

in Mayo and Kildare.

While the public has not been exposed to the day-to-day machinations of the political

system over the last couple of months, there has been an arguably greater volume of

media coverage of political issues this summer compared to the average holiday period.

Specifically, the last number of weeks has seen a number of public pronouncements from

senior coalition ministers concerning the sanctity or otherwise of the Croke Park

Agreement.

Indeed, seemingly contradictory comments from Fine Gael ministers on the one hand and

Labour spokespersons on the other in relation to the Croke Park agreement reportedly

caused enough alarm regarding the stability of the coalition to prompt a phone call from

the Troika to enquire if all was well!

16


Opinion Poll Series

Background

At a broader level, Government spokespersons have been musing in public as to the

precise measures which may need to be taken in December’s Budget, from further cuts

in the health service to the likely value of the looming household charge.

Given all of the above, a drop in opinion poll support for the Government and both Fine

Gael and the Labour Party might reasonably have been expected in today’s survey

findings.

Certainly, it is reasonable to assume that this Government’s honeymoon period is now

well and truly over, and that its popularity with the electorate will be subjected to the

most severe pressure over the next few months as it faces the most difficult series of

decisions encountered by any Irish Government in living memory.

17


Opinion Poll Series

Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels

Satisfaction with the Government has dropped by a considerable seven points since the

last comparable poll conducted at the end of May of this year.

This represents the lowest Government satisfaction rating registered for this

administration since the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll series was

instigated in August of 2011.

The drop in satisfaction is most pronounced amongst older respondents (55 years+) who

tend to be the most sensitive to potential cuts in healthcare services and pension

entitlements. Support for the Government has also dropped ten percentage points

amongst the C2DE (skilled and unskilled manual workers, and those reliant on State

benefits) socio economic grouping. Furthermore, Government satisfaction has declined

nine points amongst Labour voters and seven points within the Fine Gael support base.

Of the two coalition party leaders, however, Enda Kenny as Taoiseach seems to have

attracted the greater degree of voter ire, with his satisfaction rating dropping four

points from 42% in May to 38% today.

18


Opinion Poll Series


Kenny’s satisfaction level has dropped most significantly amongst the broad 35 years+

age cohort, the ABC1 white collar worker socio economic grouping, and has also declined

dramatically amongst both Fine Gael (-9%) and Labour (-10%) party supporters.

Conversely, Eamon Gilmore’s rating as Tánaiste has increased (albeit statistically

insignificantly) by two points over the last three months or so, and he is now viewed

almost as favourably as Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin

at a national level.

All of Gilmore’s increased satisfaction has emanated from Fine Gael and Labour voters,

and 35-54 year olds. Last May’s poll saw Micheál Martin’s personal rating increase seven

percentage points from the previous poll to stand at its highest level (41%) since just

after he was elected leader of Fianna Fáil in January 2011.

At the time, we attributed this increase to his heightened profile as part of Fianna Fáil’s

campaign for a yes vote in the Fiscal Treaty Referendum.

19


Opinion Poll Series


It will be particularly disappointing for Fianna Fáil, therefore, to witness Martin’s rating

drop back seven points to just 34%, leaving him in joint third position with Eamon

Gilmore in the personal popularity stakes.

Of perhaps greatest concern to Micheál Martin is the fact that his rating has dropped

dramatically by sixteen points amongst Fianna Fáil party supporters. The Fianna Fáil

leader’s popularity is also significantly lower amongst females than males, and has also

dropped 15% amongst 18-34 year olds, suggesting that he is in danger of losing touch

with younger voters as many of them seek an alternative to the establishment parties in

this post-Celtic Tiger era.

While Gerry Adam’s rating as leader of Sinn Féin is the highest of all five party leaders

measured (at 39%), it has been declining consistently since its highs of 50% this time last

year.

The Republican leader’s most recent drop of three percentage points since the last poll

is most pronounced amongst males, those aged 35-54 years, white collar ABC1 workers,

and Labour Party supporters.

20


Opinion Poll Series


Perhaps aligned to Micheál Martin’s drop in satisfaction amongst his own party base, we

do see Adam’s satisfaction rating increase by a significant eleven percentage points

amongst those indicating they are currently disposed to vote for the Soldiers of Destiny.

Finally, Eamon Ryan’s personal rating of 27% is in or around that which he has been

garnering over the course of this opinion Poll series, and peaks amongst 18-34 year olds

and females.

21


Opinion Poll Series

Support for Abortion

Respondents in today’s poll were also asked whether they would or would not support a

change in the law to permit abortion in cases where the life of the mother is at risk.

In response, eight in ten of all eligible Irish voters suggested that they would support a

change in the law, a figure which is highest amongst males, those aged 18-54 years,

ABC1 white collar workers, and people living in the Greater Dublin area.

Resistance to such a change in the law is, on the other hand, highest among Fianna Fáil

(20% opposed to a change in the law to permit abortion) and Sinn Féin (17% opposed)

party supporters.

Tabular Report

SeptemberTeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll

J3719

Table 1 Fieldwork : 4th - 9th September 2012 Page 1

Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Lein-ster

Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster

Urban Rural FiannaFail

Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,163 1,262 996 1,375 1,793 253 988 869 944 618 2,092 1,329 409 739 246 69 440 404 1,114

Unweighted Total 979 482 497 338 359 282 462 480 37 276 253 268 181 670 309 126 217 85 20 117 119 295

Yes, eligible 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984

94% 93% 96% 89% 95% 100% 91% 96% 96% 91% 95% 94% 99% 93% 97% 97% 99% 99% 78% 98% 96% 88%

No – not eligible 145 90 55 88 55 2 101 32 11 81 23 39 1 118 26 8 9 1 13 7 8 98

4% 5% 3% 8% 4% 0% 7% 2% 4% 8% 3% 4% 0% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 18% 2% 2% 9%

Don’t know 49 35 14 37 11 - 16 33 - 9 17 19 3 35 14 5 - - 3 2 8 31

1% 2% 1% 3% 1% - 1% 2% - 1% 2% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1% - - 4% 0% 2% 3%


J3719


Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Base : All Irish Adults 18+ Total Likelihood

Wouldvote

Woulddefinitely vote

Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,421 2,754 2,278 476 122 503

Unweighted Total 979 792 661 131 43 133

Yes, eligible 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430

94% 96% 98% 89% 93% 85%

No – not eligible 145 76 43 33 4 56

4% 3% 2% 7% 3% 11%

Don’t know 49 28 9 19 5 17

1% 1% 0% 4% 4% 3%


J3719


Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Satisfied 763 469 294 256 243 264 375 285 103 204 175 216 165 445 318 40 412 78 6 33 45 149

24% 30% 18% 25% 20% 27% 30% 17% 42% 23% 21% 24% 27% 23% 25% 10% 56% 32% 11% 8% 12% 15%

Dissatisfied 2,316 993 1,323 698 925 693 819 1,358 139 654 586 645 430 1,407 908 352 287 159 40 389 335 753

72% 64% 79% 67% 77% 70% 65% 79% 58% 73% 71% 73% 70% 73% 71% 89% 39% 65% 74% 90% 87% 77%

No opinion 148 90 59 83 27 38 64 84 - 39 67 25 18 87 61 4 32 7 8 9 7 82

5% 6% 3% 8% 2% 4% 5% 5% - 4% 8% 3% 3% 4% 5% 1% 4% 3% 15% 2% 2% 8%


J3719


Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?

Base : All Irish Voters Total Likelihood

Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Satisfied 763 687 572 115 15 58

24% 26% 26% 27% 13% 13%

Dissatisfied 2,316 1,847 1,569 278 96 344

72% 70% 70% 66% 85% 80%

No opinion 148 118 86 31 2 29

5% 4% 4% 7% 2% 7%


J3719


Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Satisfied 1,240 666 573 424 423 392 557 553 130 347 309 321 259 708 532 68 558 123 11 101 103 277

38% 43% 34% 41% 35% 39% 44% 32% 54% 39% 37% 36% 42% 36% 41% 17% 76% 50% 20% 23% 26% 28%

Dissatisfied 1,795 779 1,016 493 740 562 610 1,073 112 500 439 526 331 1,108 687 320 152 111 35 310 269 597

56% 50% 61% 48% 62% 57% 48% 62% 46% 56% 53% 59% 54% 57% 53% 81% 21% 46% 65% 72% 69% 61%

No opinion 193 106 87 120 32 40 91 102 - 50 80 39 23 124 69 8 20 10 8 20 16 111

6% 7% 5% 12% 3% 4% 7% 6% - 6% 10% 4% 4% 6% 5% 2% 3% 4% 15% 5% 4% 11%


J3719


Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Satisfied 1,240 1,139 944 195 33 61

38% 43% 42% 46% 29% 14%

Dissatisfied 1,795 1,409 1,231 178 74 289

56% 53% 55% 42% 65% 67%

No opinion 193 102 51 52 6 81

6% 4% 2% 12% 5% 19%


J3719


Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Satisfied 1,083 549 534 351 393 338 443 508 132 292 244 316 229 635 447 73 469 128 22 126 78 187

34% 35% 32% 34% 33% 34% 35% 29% 55% 32% 29% 36% 37% 33% 35% 18% 64% 53% 40% 29% 20% 19%

Dissatisfied 1,767 804 963 484 708 576 634 1,033 101 486 450 517 315 1,075 692 303 223 107 24 268 258 584

55% 52% 57% 47% 59% 58% 50% 60% 42% 54% 54% 58% 51% 55% 54% 77% 31% 44% 45% 62% 67% 59%

No opinion 377 199 179 203 94 80 181 188 9 120 134 53 70 229 148 20 38 9 8 38 52 213

12% 13% 11% 20% 8% 8% 14% 11% 4% 13% 16% 6% 11% 12% 12% 5% 5% 4% 15% 9% 13% 22%


J3719


Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Satisfied 1,083 976 837 139 30 73

34% 37% 38% 33% 27% 17%

Dissatisfied 1,767 1,406 1,194 212 67 267

55% 53% 54% 50% 59% 62%

No opinion 377 269 195 73 16 90

12% 10% 9% 17% 14% 21%


J3719


Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Satisfied 1,108 571 537 295 407 406 437 571 100 251 285 366 204 614 495 251 310 87 12 108 111 229

34% 37% 32% 28% 34% 41% 35% 33% 41% 28% 34% 41% 33% 32% 38% 63% 42% 36% 23% 25% 29% 23%

Dissatisfied 1,675 752 923 539 638 498 601 934 139 507 406 450 312 1,046 629 117 338 139 27 282 240 532

52% 48% 55% 52% 53% 50% 48% 54% 58% 57% 49% 51% 51% 54% 49% 29% 46% 57% 51% 65% 62% 54%

No opinion 444 228 216 204 151 90 219 223 3 139 138 70 98 280 164 28 82 18 14 42 36 224

14% 15% 13% 20% 13% 9% 17% 13% 1% 15% 17% 8% 16% 14% 13% 7% 11% 7% 26% 10% 9% 23%


J3719


Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Satisfied 1,108 997 854 143 29 76

34% 38% 38% 34% 26% 18%

Dissatisfied 1,675 1,321 1,139 182 58 280

52% 50% 51% 43% 51% 65%

No opinion 444 333 234 99 27 74

14% 13% 10% 23% 23% 17%


J3719


Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Satisfied 1,267 696 571 437 465 365 382 797 89 374 317 339 238 762 506 170 196 79 29 354 151 289

39% 45% 34% 42% 39% 37% 30% 46% 37% 42% 38% 38% 39% 39% 39% 43% 27% 32% 54% 82% 39% 29%

Dissatisfied 1,420 584 836 416 535 469 644 649 127 386 357 417 257 879 540 171 412 128 11 43 205 451

44% 38% 50% 40% 45% 47% 51% 38% 53% 43% 43% 47% 42% 45% 42% 43% 56% 52% 20% 10% 53% 46%

No opinion 540 272 269 184 195 161 232 282 26 137 154 129 119 298 242 55 122 38 14 34 32 245

17% 18% 16% 18% 16% 16% 18% 16% 11% 15% 19% 15% 19% 15% 19% 14% 17% 16% 26% 8% 8% 25%


J3719


Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Satisfied 1,267 1,088 924 164 41 135

39% 41% 41% 39% 36% 31%

Dissatisfied 1,420 1,166 1,004 163 47 194

44% 44% 45% 38% 42% 45%

No opinion 540 397 299 98 25 101

17% 15% 13% 23% 22% 23%


J3719


Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Satisfied 885 400 485 323 306 256 342 440 103 215 237 251 182 513 372 127 217 80 49 121 93 198

27% 26% 29% 31% 26% 26% 27% 25% 43% 24% 29% 28% 30% 26% 29% 32% 30% 33% 91% 28% 24% 20%

Dissatisfied 1,479 755 724 430 591 458 555 791 133 402 394 423 257 891 588 192 323 114 5 196 230 418

46% 49% 43% 41% 49% 46% 44% 46% 55% 45% 48% 48% 42% 46% 46% 49% 44% 47% 9% 45% 59% 42%

No opinion 864 397 467 284 299 281 361 496 6 280 197 212 175 535 328 77 190 50 - 114 64 368

27% 26% 28% 27% 25% 28% 29% 29% 2% 31% 24% 24% 28% 28% 25% 19% 26% 21% - 27% 16% 37%


J3719


Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Satisfied 885 773 664 110 35 70

27% 29% 30% 26% 31% 16%

Dissatisfied 1,479 1,167 983 184 51 250

46% 44% 44% 43% 45% 58%

No opinion 864 710 580 130 28 110

27% 27% 26% 31% 24% 26%


J3719


Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Fianna Fail 396 228 168 101 149 147 133 227 36 62 85 169 80 214 181 396 - - - - - -

12% 15% 10% 10% 12% 15% 11% 13% 15% 7% 10% 19% 13% 11% 14% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 730 392 338 247 254 228 351 288 92 167 177 222 164 397 333 - 730 - - - - -

23% 25% 20% 24% 21% 23% 28% 17% 38% 19% 21% 25% 27% 20% 26% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 244 142 102 91 81 73 151 93 - 122 45 59 15 187 57 - - 244 - - - -

8% 9% 6% 9% 7% 7% 12% 5% - 14% 5% 7% 2% 10% 4% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 54 19 35 21 23 10 12 42 - 13 4 13 24 46 7 - - - 54 - - -

2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% - 1% 0% 1% 4% 2% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 432 218 213 180 170 81 107 319 6 147 103 91 91 296 136 - - - - 432 - -

13% 14% 13% 17% 14% 8% 8% 18% 3% 16% 12% 10% 15% 15% 11% - - - - 100% - -

Independent/Other 387 185 203 76 175 136 188 179 21 144 122 88 33 236 152 - - - - - 387 -

12% 12% 12% 7% 15% 14% 15% 10% 9% 16% 15% 10% 5% 12% 12% - - - - - 100% -

Don’t know 682 246 436 239 240 203 243 397 43 199 202 140 141 417 265 - - - - - - 682

21% 16% 26% 23% 20% 20% 19% 23% 18% 22% 24% 16% 23% 21% 21% - - - - - - 69%

Would not vote 302 122 180 83 103 116 75 184 43 43 90 104 65 146 156 - - - - - - 302

9% 8% 11% 8% 9% 12% 6% 11% 18% 5% 11% 12% 11% 8% 12% - - - - - - 31%


J3719




Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Fianna Fail 396 341 298 43 21 33

12% 13% 13% 10% 19% 8%

Fine Gael 730 697 605 91 13 21

23% 26% 27% 22% 11% 5%

Labour 244 227 211 17 8 9

8% 9% 9% 4% 7% 2%

Green Party 54 34 28 6 4 16

2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4%

Sinn Fein 432 398 342 57 3 30

13% 15% 15% 13% 3% 7%

Independent/Other 387 326 285 40 10 47

12% 12% 13% 9% 9% 11%

Don’t know 682 566 425 141 52 58

21% 21% 19% 33% 45% 14%

Would not vote 302 62 32 30 3 216

9% 2% 1% 7% 2% 50%


J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll voters excluding undecided

Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support


Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 2,243 1,184 1,059 716 852 675 940 1,147 156 655 537 642 407 1,377 866 396 730 244 54 432 387 -

Unweighted Total 660 348 312 211 248 201 325 311 24 191 164 185 119 451 209 121 214 84 14 114 113 -

Fianna Fail 396 228 168 101 149 147 133 227 36 62 85 169 80 214 181 396 - - - - - -

18% 19% 16% 14% 17% 22% 14% 20% 23% 9% 16% 26% 20% 16% 21% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 730 392 338 247 254 228 351 288 92 167 177 222 164 397 333 - 730 - - - - -

33% 33% 32% 35% 30% 34% 37% 25% 59% 26% 33% 35% 40% 29% 38% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 244 142 102 91 81 73 151 93 - 122 45 59 15 187 57 - - 244 - - - -

11% 12% 10% 13% 9% 11% 16% 8% - 19% 8% 9% 4% 14% 7% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 54 19 35 21 23 10 12 42 - 13 4 13 24 46 7 - - - 54 - - -

2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 4% - 2% 1% 2% 6% 3% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 432 218 213 180 170 81 107 319 6 147 103 91 91 296 136 - - - - 432 - -

19% 18% 20% 25% 20% 12% 11% 28% 4% 22% 19% 14% 22% 21% 16% - - - - 100% - -


17% 16% 19% 11% 21% 20% 20% 16% 14% 22% 23% 14% 8% 17% 18% - - - - - 100% -


J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll voters excluding undecided

Total Likelihood

Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 2,243 2,023 1,770 254 59 156


Fianna Fail 396 341 298 43 21 33

18% 17% 17% 17% 36% 21%

Fine Gael 730 697 605 91 13 21

33% 34% 34% 36% 21% 13%

Labour 244 227 211 17 8 9

11% 11% 12% 7% 13% 6%

Green Party 54 34 28 6 4 16

2% 2% 2% 3% 7% 10%

Sinn Fein 432 398 342 57 3 30

19% 20% 19% 22% 5% 19%


17% 16% 16% 16% 17% 30%


J3719


Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 1,810 925 885 454 754 603 794 871 146 562 449 489 310 1,103 707 298 561 245 35 326 345 -

Unweighted Total 534 278 256 137 216 181 274 239 21 159 134 149 92 363 171 95 183 74 8 86 88 -

Fianna Fail 298 167 130 53 136 110 101 161 35 58 77 102 61 165 133 298 - - - - - -

16% 18% 15% 12% 18% 18% 13% 19% 24% 10% 17% 21% 20% 15% 19% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 561 301 260 151 212 198 286 195 79 119 123 190 129 283 278 - 561 - - - - -

31% 33% 29% 33% 28% 33% 36% 22% 55% 21% 27% 39% 41% 26% 39% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 245 142 103 79 84 82 148 97 - 131 56 42 15 195 50 - - 245 - - - -

14% 15% 12% 17% 11% 14% 19% 11% - 23% 13% 9% 5% 18% 7% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 35 12 23 7 14 15 9 26 - 11 - 6 18 30 6 - - - 35 - - -

2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 3% - 2% - 1% 6% 3% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 326 148 178 115 131 80 81 242 4 107 81 76 61 218 108 - - - - 326 - -

18% 16% 20% 25% 17% 13% 10% 28% 3% 19% 18% 16% 20% 20% 15% - - - - 100% - -


19% 17% 22% 11% 23% 20% 21% 17% 19% 24% 25% 15% 8% 19% 19% - - - - - 100% -


J3719


Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

Total Likelihood

Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 1,810 1,810 1,810 - - -

Unweighted Total 534 534 534 - - -

Fianna Fail 298 298 298 - - -

16% 16% 16% - - -

Fine Gael 561 561 561 - - -

31% 31% 31% - - -

Labour 245 245 245 - - -

14% 14% 14% - - -

Green Party 35 35 35 - - -

2% 2% 2% - - -

Sinn Fein 326 326 326 - - -

18% 18% 18% - - -

Independent/Other 345 345 345 - - -

19% 19% 19% - - -


J3719


Q10 Would you or would you not support a change in the law to permit abortion in cases where the life of the mother is at risk?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Would support change 2,575 1,280 1,296 863 972 740 1,037 1,343 195 735 691 698 452 1,534 1,041 314 611 223 49 322 329 728

80% 82% 77% 83% 81% 74% 82% 78% 81% 82% 83% 79% 74% 79% 81% 79% 84% 91% 91% 75% 85% 74%

Would not support change 461 183 279 135 149 177 152 267 42 106 115 133 107 277 184 78 83 15 5 74 44 163

14% 12% 17% 13% 12% 18% 12% 15% 17% 12% 14% 15% 17% 14% 14% 20% 11% 6% 9% 17% 11% 17%

Don’t know/no opinion (DO NOT READ OUT)

191 89 102 39 75 77 68 118 5 57 22 55 55 128 63 4 37 6 - 35 15 94

6% 6% 6% 4% 6% 8% 5% 7% 2% 6% 3% 6% 9% 7% 5% 1% 5% 3% - 8% 4% 10%


J3719


Q10 Would you or would you not support a change in the law to permit abortion in cases where the life of the mother is at risk?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Would support change 2,575 2,143 1,798 346 87 326

80% 81% 81% 81% 77% 76%

Would not support change 461 351 289 62 24 86

14% 13% 13% 15% 21% 20%

Don’t know/no opinion (DO NOT READ OUT)

191 156 140 16 3 18

6% 6% 6% 4% 2% 4%


J3719


Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Would definitely vote 2,227 1,062 1,165 554 934 738 926 1,149 152 704 533 595 394 1,377 849 298 605 211 28 342 285 457

69% 68% 69% 53% 78% 74% 74% 66% 63% 78% 64% 67% 64% 71% 66% 75% 83% 86% 52% 79% 74% 46%

Would probably vote 424 226 198 262 84 78 148 239 37 90 134 107 93 232 193 43 91 17 6 57 40 171

13% 15% 12% 25% 7% 8% 12% 14% 15% 10% 16% 12% 15% 12% 15% 11% 12% 7% 12% 13% 10% 17%

Might/might not vote 114 47 67 61 25 28 33 79 1 18 29 31 32 72 42 21 13 8 4 3 10 54

4% 3% 4% 6% 2% 3% 3% 5% 0% 2% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 7% 1% 3% 6%

Would probably not vote 241 118 123 111 65 65 111 111 19 61 74 63 43 133 108 23 12 9 5 20 38 133

7% 8% 7% 11% 5% 7% 9% 6% 8% 7% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 6% 2% 4% 9% 5% 10% 14%

Would definitely not vote 189 84 105 44 71 74 32 124 33 12 58 71 48 103 86 10 9 - 11 10 8 141

6% 5% 6% 4% 6% 7% 3% 7% 14% 1% 7% 8% 8% 5% 7% 3% 1% - 21% 2% 2% 14%

Don’t know 33 15 18 5 17 11 8 25 - 12 - 18 3 23 10 - - - - - 5 28

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% - 2% 0% 1% 1% - - - - - 1% 3%

Mean 4.33 4.34 4.32 4.13 4.48 4.36 4.46 4.28 4.06 4.59 4.22 4.26 4.22 4.38 4.26 4.51 4.74 4.76 3.65 4.62 4.46 3.70


J3719


Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Would definitely vote 2,227 2,227 2,227 - - -

69% 84% 100% - - -

Would probably vote 424 424 - 424 - -

13% 16% - 100% - -

Might/might not vote 114 - - - 114 -

4% - - - 100% -

Would probably not vote 241 - - - - 241

7% - - - - 56%

Would definitely not vote 189 - - - - 189

6% - - - - 44%

Don’t know 33 - - - - -

1% - - - - -

Mean 4.33 4.84 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.56


J3719


Q12 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984


Fianna Fail 386 230 156 93 137 156 97 232 57 50 111 163 61 187 199 264 34 1 2 6 24 54

12% 15% 9% 9% 11% 16% 8% 13% 24% 6% 13% 18% 10% 10% 15% 67% 5% 1% 4% 1% 6% 5%

Fine Gael 988 487 502 221 412 355 422 460 106 251 212 314 211 546 443 36 554 41 - 76 85 197

31% 31% 30% 21% 35% 36% 34% 27% 44% 28% 26% 35% 34% 28% 34% 9% 76% 17% - 18% 22% 20%

Labour 414 185 229 99 176 139 212 202 - 202 79 115 15 320 94 11 37 147 11 60 18 130

13% 12% 14% 9% 15% 14% 17% 12% - 23% 10% 13% 2% 17% 7% 3% 5% 60% 20% 14% 5% 13%

Green Party 24 14 10 6 6 13 10 14 - 8 6 - 11 22 3 - 6 - 10 - 6 3

1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 2% 1% 0% - 1% - 18% - 2% 0%

Workers Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Sinn Fein 257 137 120 95 141 21 75 177 5 71 60 37 88 186 70 15 4 5 11 199 6 17

8% 9% 7% 9% 12% 2% 6% 10% 2% 8% 7% 4% 14% 10% 5% 4% 1% 2% 21% 46% 2% 2%

Independent/Other 293 149 145 68 117 108 137 135 21 102 91 63 37 182 111 11 13 13 - 24 141 91

9% 10% 9% 7% 10% 11% 11% 8% 9% 11% 11% 7% 6% 9% 9% 3% 2% 5% - 6% 36% 9%

Don’t know 423 116 307 161 123 138 137 247 39 110 103 116 94 230 192 40 45 16 4 28 44 246

13% 7% 18% 16% 10% 14% 11% 14% 16% 12% 12% 13% 15% 12% 15% 10% 6% 7% 7% 6% 11% 25%

Did not vote 443 234 208 295 83 64 168 261 14 104 165 77 97 266 177 18 39 21 16 39 63 247

14% 15% 12% 28% 7% 6% 13% 15% 6% 12% 20% 9% 16% 14% 14% 5% 5% 9% 30% 9% 16% 25%


J3719




Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430


Fianna Fail 386 341 293 48 16 26

12% 13% 13% 11% 14% 6%

Fine Gael 988 902 807 96 24 62

31% 34% 36% 23% 21% 14%

Labour 414 347 328 19 11 42

13% 13% 15% 5% 10% 10%

Green Party 24 24 22 3 - -

1% 1% 1% 1% - -

Workers Party - - - - - -

- - - - - -

Sinn Fein 257 232 192 40 3 22

8% 9% 9% 9% 2% 5%


9% 10% 11% 6% 7% 5%

Don’t know 423 361 251 110 24 31

13% 14% 11% 26% 21% 7%

Did not vote 443 181 96 85 29 226

14% 7% 4% 20% 25% 52%


J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll VotersExcluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted Total 2,362 1,201 1,161 581 989 792 954 1,220 189 684 560 693 423 1,443 919 337 647 207 34 365 280 491


Fianna Fail 386 230 156 93 137 156 97 232 57 50 111 163 61 187 199 264 34 1 2 6 24 54

16% 19% 13% 16% 14% 20% 10% 19% 30% 7% 20% 24% 15% 13% 22% 78% 5% 1% 7% 2% 9% 11%

Fine Gael 988 487 502 221 412 355 422 460 106 251 212 314 211 546 443 36 554 41 - 76 85 197

42% 41% 43% 38% 42% 45% 44% 38% 56% 37% 38% 45% 50% 38% 48% 11% 86% 20% - 21% 30% 40%

Labour 414 185 229 99 176 139 212 202 - 202 79 115 15 320 94 11 37 147 11 60 18 130

18% 15% 20% 17% 18% 18% 22% 17% - 30% 14% 17% 3% 22% 10% 3% 6% 71% 32% 16% 7% 26%

Green Party 24 14 10 6 6 13 10 14 - 8 6 - 11 22 3 - 6 - 10 - 6 3

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 3% 1% 0% - 1% - 29% - 2% 1%

Workers Party - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Sinn Fein 257 137 120 95 141 21 75 177 5 71 60 37 88 186 70 15 4 5 11 199 6 17

11% 11% 10% 16% 14% 3% 8% 15% 2% 10% 11% 5% 21% 13% 8% 5% 1% 2% 32% 54% 2% 3%

Independent/Other 293 149 145 68 117 108 137 135 21 102 91 63 37 182 111 11 13 13 - 24 141 91

12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 11% 11% 15% 16% 9% 9% 13% 12% 3% 2% 6% - 7% 50% 19%


J3719



Base : All Irish VotersAll VotersExcluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)

Total Likelihood

Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted Total 2,362 2,108 1,879 229 61 174


Fianna Fail 386 341 293 48 16 26

16% 16% 16% 21% 26% 15%

Fine Gael 988 902 807 96 24 62

42% 43% 43% 42% 39% 36%

Labour 414 347 328 19 11 42

18% 16% 17% 8% 18% 24%

Green Party 24 24 22 3 - -

1% 1% 1% 1% - -

Workers Party - - - - - -

- - - - - -

Sinn Fein 257 232 192 40 3 22

11% 11% 10% 17% 4% 13%


12% 12% 13% 10% 12% 13%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984

Unweighted 923 449 474 298 344 281 430 458 35 253 239 251 179 624 299 121 214 84 14 114 113 263

Gender

Male 1,552 1,552 - 520 574 457 616 821 115 401 415 451 282 910 641 228 392 142 19 218 185 368

48% 100% - 50% 48% 46% 49% 48% 48% 45% 50% 51% 46% 47% 50% 58% 54% 58% 35% 51% 48% 37%

Female 1,676 - 1,676 518 621 537 642 907 127 496 413 434 332 1,029 647 168 338 102 35 213 203 616

52% - 100% 50% 52% 54% 51% 52% 52% 55% 50% 49% 54% 53% 50% 42% 46% 42% 65% 49% 52% 63%

Age

18-34 1,038 520 518 1,038 - - 434 549 54 325 252 276 181 711 327 101 247 91 21 180 76 322

32% 34% 31% 100% - - 35% 32% 22% 36% 30% 31% 30% 37% 25% 25% 34% 37% 39% 42% 20% 33%

35-54 1,196 574 621 - 1,196 - 498 627 71 347 306 324 219 717 479 149 254 81 23 170 175 343

37% 37% 37% - 100% - 40% 36% 29% 39% 37% 37% 36% 37% 37% 38% 35% 33% 43% 39% 45% 35%

55+ 994 457 537 - - 994 326 551 117 226 270 285 213 512 482 147 228 73 10 81 136 319

31% 29% 32% - - 100% 26% 32% 48% 25% 33% 32% 35% 26% 37% 37% 31% 30% 18% 19% 35% 32%

Class

ABC1 1,258 616 642 434 498 326 1,258 - - 433 292 310 220 796 462 133 351 151 12 107 188 318

39% 40% 38% 42% 42% 33% 100% - - 48% 35% 35% 36% 41% 36% 34% 48% 62% 21% 25% 48% 32%

C2DE 1,728 821 907 549 627 551 - 1,728 - 464 472 459 333 1,125 603 227 288 93 42 319 179 581

54% 53% 54% 53% 52% 55% - 100% - 52% 57% 52% 54% 58% 47% 57% 39% 38% 79% 74% 46% 59%

F 242 115 127 54 71 117 - - 242 - 65 117 60 19 223 36 92 - - 6 21 86

7% 7% 8% 5% 6% 12% - - 100% - 8% 13% 10% 1% 17% 9% 13% - - 1% 5% 9%

Region

Dublin 897 401 496 325 347 226 433 464 - 897 - - - 897 - 62 167 122 13 147 144 243

28% 26% 30% 31% 29% 23% 35% 27% - 100% - - - 46% - 16% 23% 51% 23% 34% 37% 25%

Lein-ster 828 415 413 252 306 270 292 472 65 - 828 - - 400 428 85 177 45 4 103 122 292

26% 27% 25% 24% 26% 27% 23% 27% 27% - 100% - - 21% 33% 22% 24% 19% 7% 24% 32% 30%

Mun-ster 886 451 434 276 324 285 310 459 117 - - 886 - 395 491 169 222 59 13 91 88 244

27% 29% 26% 27% 27% 29% 25% 27% 48% - - 100% - 20% 38% 43% 30% 25% 24% 21% 23% 25%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984

Unweighted 923 449 474 298 344 281 430 458 35 253 239 251 179 624 299 121 214 84 14 114 113 263

Conn/Ulster 613 282 332 181 219 213 220 333 60 - - - 613 244 369 80 164 15 24 91 33 206

19% 18% 20% 17% 18% 21% 18% 19% 25% - - - 100% 13% 29% 20% 22% 6% 45% 21% 8% 21%

Area

Urban 1,939 910 1,029 711 717 512 796 1,125 19 897 400 395 244 1,939 - 214 397 187 46 296 236 563

60% 59% 61% 68% 60% 52% 63% 65% 8% 100% 48% 45% 40% 100% - 54% 54% 77% 86% 69% 61% 57%

Rural 1,288 641 647 327 479 482 462 603 223 - 428 491 369 - 1,288 181 333 57 7 136 152 422

40% 41% 39% 32% 40% 48% 37% 35% 92% - 52% 55% 60% - 100% 46% 46% 23% 14% 31% 39% 43%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 396 228 168 101 149 147 133 227 36 62 85 169 80 214 181 396 - - - - - -

12% 15% 10% 10% 12% 15% 11% 13% 15% 7% 10% 19% 13% 11% 14% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 730 392 338 247 254 228 351 288 92 167 177 222 164 397 333 - 730 - - - - -

23% 25% 20% 24% 21% 23% 28% 17% 38% 19% 21% 25% 27% 20% 26% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 244 142 102 91 81 73 151 93 - 122 45 59 15 187 57 - - 244 - - - -

8% 9% 6% 9% 7% 7% 12% 5% - 14% 5% 7% 2% 10% 4% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 54 19 35 21 23 10 12 42 - 13 4 13 24 46 7 - - - 54 - - -

2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% - 1% 0% 1% 4% 2% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 432 218 213 180 170 81 107 319 6 147 103 91 91 296 136 - - - - 432 - -

13% 14% 13% 17% 14% 8% 8% 18% 3% 16% 12% 10% 15% 15% 11% - - - - 100% - -

Independent/Others 387 185 203 76 175 136 188 179 21 144 122 88 33 236 152 - - - - - 387 -

12% 12% 12% 7% 15% 14% 15% 10% 9% 16% 15% 10% 5% 12% 12% - - - - - 100% -

Would not/Don't Know 984 368 616 322 343 319 318 581 86 243 292 244 206 563 422 - - - - - - 984

31% 24% 37% 31% 29% 32% 25% 34% 36% 27% 35% 28% 34% 29% 33% - - - - - - 100%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,651 1,288 1,363 816 1,018 817 1,074 1,388 189 794 667 703 488 1,609 1,042 341 697 227 34 398 326 628

83% 84% 82% 79% 86% 83% 86% 82% 78% 90% 80% 81% 80% 84% 82% 86% 95% 93% 63% 92% 85% 66%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,227 1,552 1,676 1,038 1,196 994 1,258 1,728 242 897 828 886 613 1,939 1,288 396 730 244 54 432 387 984

Unweighted 923 449 474 298 344 281 430 458 35 253 239 251 179 624 299 121 214 84 14 114 113 263

Might/might not 114 47 67 61 25 28 33 79 1 18 29 31 32 72 42 21 13 8 4 3 10 54

4% 3% 4% 6% 2% 3% 3% 5% 0% 2% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 5% 2% 3% 7% 1% 3% 6%

Would not Vote 430 202 228 155 136 139 143 236 52 73 132 133 91 236 194 33 21 9 16 30 47 275

13% 13% 14% 15% 12% 14% 11% 14% 21% 8% 16% 15% 15% 12% 15% 8% 3% 4% 29% 7% 12% 29%

Mean 4.33 4.34 4.32 4.13 4.48 4.36 4.46 4.28 4.06 4.59 4.22 4.26 4.22 4.38 4.26 4.51 4.74 4.76 3.65 4.62 4.46 3.70

Marital Status

Single 974 538 437 632 221 121 376 520 79 275 255 230 211 628 347 107 217 89 28 159 101 273

30% 35% 26% 61% 19% 12% 30% 30% 33% 31% 31% 26% 34% 32% 27% 27% 30% 36% 52% 37% 26% 28%

Married 1,605 791 814 216 772 617 654 829 122 387 426 533 259 874 731 248 410 98 10 157 242 439

50% 51% 49% 21% 65% 62% 52% 48% 50% 43% 51% 60% 42% 45% 57% 63% 56% 40% 19% 36% 62% 45%

Co-habiting 256 96 160 153 99 4 116 140 - 127 51 29 48 228 28 3 56 36 2 63 19 77

8% 6% 10% 15% 8% 0% 9% 8% - 14% 6% 3% 8% 12% 2% 1% 8% 15% 4% 15% 5% 8%

Widowed 210 42 168 3 19 189 59 109 42 46 52 43 69 87 123 20 34 2 3 21 7 123

7% 3% 10% 0% 2% 19% 5% 6% 17% 5% 6% 5% 11% 4% 10% 5% 5% 1% 5% 5% 2% 13%

Divorced/seperated 164 84 81 30 73 61 38 126 - 62 33 51 19 110 54 10 11 19 8 31 18 66

5% 5% 5% 3% 6% 6% 3% 7% - 7% 4% 6% 3% 6% 4% 3% 2% 8% 16% 7% 5% 7%

Refused 18 2 16 5 11 2 13 4 - - 11 - 7 13 5 6 2 - 3 - - 7

1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% - - 1% - 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% - 5% - - 1%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430

Unweighted 923 768 653 115 39 108

Gender

Male 1,552 1,288 1,062 226 47 202

48% 49% 48% 53% 41% 47%

Female 1,676 1,363 1,165 198 67 228

52% 51% 52% 47% 59% 53%

Age

18-34 1,038 816 554 262 61 155

32% 31% 25% 62% 53% 36%

35-54 1,196 1,018 934 84 25 136

37% 38% 42% 20% 22% 32%

55+ 994 817 738 78 28 139

31% 31% 33% 18% 24% 32%

Class

ABC1 1,258 1,074 926 148 33 143

39% 41% 42% 35% 29% 33%

C2DE 1,728 1,388 1,149 239 79 236

54% 52% 52% 56% 70% 55%

F 242 189 152 37 1 52

7% 7% 7% 9% 1% 12%

Region

Dublin 897 794 704 90 18 73

28% 30% 32% 21% 17% 17%

Lein-ster 828 667 533 134 29 132

26% 25% 24% 32% 26% 31%

Mun-ster 886 703 595 107 31 133

27% 27% 27% 25% 28% 31%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430

Unweighted 923 768 653 115 39 108

Conn/Ulster 613 488 394 93 32 91

19% 18% 18% 22% 29% 21%

Area

Urban 1,939 1,609 1,377 232 72 236

60% 61% 62% 55% 63% 55%

Rural 1,288 1,042 849 193 42 194

40% 39% 38% 45% 37% 45%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 396 341 298 43 21 33

12% 13% 13% 10% 19% 8%

Fine Gael 730 697 605 91 13 21

23% 26% 27% 22% 11% 5%

Labour 244 227 211 17 8 9

8% 9% 9% 4% 7% 2%

Green Party 54 34 28 6 4 16

2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4%

Sinn Fein 432 398 342 57 3 30

13% 15% 15% 13% 3% 7%

Independent/Others 387 326 285 40 10 47

12% 12% 13% 9% 9% 11%

Would not/Don't Know 984 628 457 171 54 275

31% 24% 21% 40% 48% 64%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,651 2,651 2,227 424 - -

83% 100% 100% 100% - -


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted 3,227 2,651 2,227 424 114 430

Unweighted 923 768 653 115 39 108

Might/might not 114 - - - 114 -

4% - - - 100% -

Would not Vote 430 - - - - 430

13% - - - - 100%

Mean 4.33 4.84 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.56

Marital Status

Single 974 787 569 218 47 135

30% 30% 26% 51% 42% 31%

Married 1,605 1,340 1,225 115 34 214

50% 51% 55% 27% 30% 50%

Co-habiting 256 216 198 18 13 27

8% 8% 9% 4% 11% 6%

Widowed 210 173 122 51 13 21

7% 7% 5% 12% 12% 5%

Divorced/seperated 164 117 95 23 6 33

5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 8%

Refused 18 18 18 - - -

1% 1% 1% - - -


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,163 1,262 996 1,375 1,793 253 988 869 944 618 2,092 1,329 409 739 246 69 440 404 1,114

Unweighted 979 482 497 338 359 282 462 480 37 276 253 268 181 670 309 126 217 85 20 117 119 295

Gender

Male 1,676 1,676 - 594 624 459 695 862 119 459 437 492 286 1,009 668 241 401 142 33 227 190 443

49% 100% - 51% 49% 46% 51% 48% 47% 46% 50% 52% 46% 48% 50% 59% 54% 58% 47% 52% 47% 40%

Female 1,745 - 1,745 569 638 537 680 931 134 529 432 452 332 1,084 661 168 338 104 37 213 215 670

51% - 100% 49% 51% 54% 49% 52% 53% 54% 50% 48% 54% 52% 50% 41% 46% 42% 53% 48% 53% 60%

Age

18-34 1,163 594 569 1,163 - - 498 599 65 371 280 327 182 800 363 109 251 92 33 184 86 408

34% 35% 33% 100% - - 36% 33% 26% 38% 32% 35% 30% 38% 27% 27% 34% 37% 47% 42% 21% 37%

35-54 1,262 624 638 - 1,262 - 551 640 71 391 319 330 222 780 482 153 260 81 27 174 182 385

37% 37% 37% - 100% - 40% 36% 28% 40% 37% 35% 36% 37% 36% 37% 35% 33% 39% 40% 45% 35%

55+ 996 459 537 - - 996 326 553 117 226 270 287 213 512 484 147 228 73 10 81 136 321

29% 27% 31% - - 100% 24% 31% 46% 23% 31% 30% 35% 24% 36% 36% 31% 30% 14% 19% 34% 29%

Class

ABC1 1,375 695 680 498 551 326 1,375 - - 510 303 335 223 904 471 138 360 153 18 113 194 399

40% 41% 39% 43% 44% 33% 100% - - 52% 35% 36% 36% 43% 35% 34% 49% 62% 26% 26% 48% 36%

C2DE 1,793 862 931 599 640 553 - 1,793 - 477 501 480 335 1,170 623 234 288 93 51 320 189 617

52% 51% 53% 52% 51% 56% - 100% - 48% 58% 51% 54% 56% 47% 57% 39% 38% 74% 73% 47% 55%

F 253 119 134 65 71 117 - - 253 - 65 128 60 19 235 36 92 - - 6 21 97

7% 7% 8% 6% 6% 12% - - 100% - 7% 14% 10% 1% 18% 9% 12% - - 1% 5% 9%

Region

Dublin 988 459 529 371 391 226 510 477 - 988 - - - 988 - 69 172 124 16 147 149 312

29% 27% 30% 32% 31% 23% 37% 27% - 100% - - - 47% - 17% 23% 51% 23% 33% 37% 28%

Lein-ster 869 437 432 280 319 270 303 501 65 - 869 - - 430 439 87 180 45 6 106 133 313

25% 26% 25% 24% 25% 27% 22% 28% 26% - 100% - - 21% 33% 21% 24% 19% 8% 24% 33% 28%

Mun-ster 944 492 452 327 330 287 335 480 128 - - 944 - 426 518 169 223 59 23 97 90 283

28% 29% 26% 28% 26% 29% 24% 27% 51% - - 100% - 20% 39% 41% 30% 24% 33% 22% 22% 25%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,163 1,262 996 1,375 1,793 253 988 869 944 618 2,092 1,329 409 739 246 69 440 404 1,114

Unweighted 979 482 497 338 359 282 462 480 37 276 253 268 181 670 309 126 217 85 20 117 119 295

Conn/Ulster 618 286 332 182 222 213 223 335 60 - - - 618 246 372 85 164 15 24 91 33 206

18% 17% 19% 16% 18% 21% 16% 19% 24% - - - 100% 12% 28% 21% 22% 6% 35% 21% 8% 19%

Area

Urban 2,092 1,009 1,084 800 780 512 904 1,170 19 988 430 426 246 2,092 - 225 406 188 54 304 253 662

61% 60% 62% 69% 62% 51% 66% 65% 7% 100% 50% 45% 40% 100% - 55% 55% 77% 78% 69% 62% 59%

Rural 1,329 668 661 363 482 484 471 623 235 - 439 518 372 - 1,329 184 333 57 15 136 152 452

39% 40% 38% 31% 38% 49% 34% 35% 93% - 50% 55% 60% - 100% 45% 45% 23% 22% 31% 38% 41%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 409 241 168 109 153 147 138 234 36 69 87 169 85 225 184 409 - - - - - -

12% 14% 10% 9% 12% 15% 10% 13% 14% 7% 10% 18% 14% 11% 14% 100% - - - - - -

Fine Gael 739 401 338 251 260 228 360 288 92 172 180 223 164 406 333 - 739 - - - - -

22% 24% 19% 22% 21% 23% 26% 16% 36% 17% 21% 24% 27% 19% 25% - 100% - - - - -

Labour 246 142 104 92 81 73 153 93 - 124 45 59 15 188 57 - - 246 - - - -

7% 8% 6% 8% 6% 7% 11% 5% - 13% 5% 6% 2% 9% 4% - - 100% - - - -

Green Party 69 33 37 33 27 10 18 51 - 16 6 23 24 54 15 - - - 69 - - -

2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 3% - 2% 1% 2% 4% 3% 1% - - - 100% - - -

Sinn Fein 440 227 213 184 174 81 113 320 6 147 106 97 91 304 136 - - - - 440 - -

13% 14% 12% 16% 14% 8% 8% 18% 3% 15% 12% 10% 15% 15% 10% - - - - 100% - -

Independent/Others 404 190 215 86 182 136 194 189 21 149 133 90 33 253 152 - - - - - 404 -

12% 11% 12% 7% 14% 14% 14% 11% 8% 15% 15% 10% 5% 12% 11% - - - - - 100% -

Would not/Don't Know 1,114 443 670 408 385 321 399 617 97 312 313 283 206 662 452 - - - - - - 1,114

33% 26% 38% 35% 30% 32% 29% 34% 38% 32% 36% 30% 33% 32% 34% - - - - - - 100%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,754 1,365 1,389 869 1,069 817 1,141 1,425 189 848 681 735 491 1,694 1,061 351 702 229 44 403 337 688

81% 83% 81% 76% 86% 83% 84% 81% 76% 87% 79% 80% 80% 82% 81% 86% 95% 93% 64% 92% 85% 64%


J3719


Analysis of Sample



Mun-ster

Conn/Ulster


Fine Gael

Lab-our

Green Party

Sinn Fein

Indep/Others

Wouldnot/DK

Weighted 3,421 1,676 1,745 1,163 1,262 996 1,375 1,793 253 988 869 944 618 2,092 1,329 409 739 246 69 440 404 1,114

Unweighted 979 482 497 338 359 282 462 480 37 276 253 268 181 670 309 126 217 85 20 117 119 295

Might/might not 122 55 67 66 28 28 34 87 1 19 37 31 32 78 44 23 13 8 5 3 10 60

4% 3% 4% 6% 2% 3% 3% 5% 0% 2% 4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 6% 2% 3% 7% 1% 3% 6%

Would not Vote 503 234 269 215 147 141 188 257 59 108 148 156 92 294 210 35 21 9 20 34 52 333

15% 14% 16% 19% 12% 14% 14% 15% 24% 11% 17% 17% 15% 14% 16% 9% 3% 4% 29% 8% 13% 31%

Mean 4.27 4.29 4.25 3.99 4.46 4.36 4.37 4.24 3.97 4.49 4.15 4.19 4.21 4.30 4.22 4.48 4.74 4.76 3.56 4.59 4.41 3.62

Marital Status

Single 1,087 616 471 715 251 121 443 555 90 331 277 263 213 713 374 118 220 89 40 161 106 353

32% 37% 27% 62% 20% 12% 32% 31% 36% 34% 32% 28% 34% 34% 28% 29% 30% 36% 57% 37% 26% 32%

Married 1,656 820 836 243 796 617 695 840 122 415 438 543 259 925 731 248 416 99 14 164 247 468

48% 49% 48% 21% 63% 62% 51% 47% 48% 42% 50% 58% 42% 44% 55% 61% 56% 40% 20% 37% 61% 42%

Co-habiting 279 108 171 165 109 4 124 155 - 131 58 42 48 242 37 3 56 36 2 63 25 93

8% 6% 10% 14% 9% 0% 9% 9% - 13% 7% 4% 8% 12% 3% 1% 8% 15% 3% 14% 6% 8%

Widowed 210 42 168 3 19 189 59 109 42 46 52 43 69 87 123 20 34 2 3 21 7 123

6% 3% 10% 0% 1% 19% 4% 6% 16% 5% 6% 5% 11% 4% 9% 5% 5% 1% 4% 5% 2% 11%

Divorced/seperated 171 88 82 32 76 63 41 130 - 64 33 52 21 112 58 13 11 19 8 31 18 69

5% 5% 5% 3% 6% 6% 3% 7% - 6% 4% 6% 3% 5% 4% 3% 2% 8% 12% 7% 5% 6%

Refused 18 2 16 5 11 2 13 4 - - 11 - 7 13 5 6 2 - 3 - - 7

1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% - - 1% - 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% - 4% - - 1%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted 3,421 2,754 2,278 476 122 503

Unweighted 979 792 661 131 43 133

Gender

Male 1,676 1,365 1,105 260 55 234

49% 50% 49% 55% 45% 47%

Female 1,745 1,389 1,173 216 67 269

51% 50% 51% 45% 55% 53%

Age

18-34 1,163 869 573 296 66 215

34% 32% 25% 62% 54% 43%

35-54 1,262 1,069 967 102 28 147

37% 39% 42% 21% 23% 29%

55+ 996 817 738 78 28 141

29% 30% 32% 16% 23% 28%

Class

ABC1 1,375 1,141 969 172 34 188

40% 41% 43% 36% 28% 37%

C2DE 1,793 1,425 1,157 267 87 257

52% 52% 51% 56% 71% 51%

F 253 189 152 37 1 59

7% 7% 7% 8% 1% 12%

Region

Dublin 988 848 743 106 19 108

29% 31% 33% 22% 16% 21%

Lein-ster 869 681 533 148 37 148

25% 25% 23% 31% 31% 29%

Mun-ster 944 735 608 126 31 156

28% 27% 27% 27% 26% 31%


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted 3,421 2,754 2,278 476 122 503

Unweighted 979 792 661 131 43 133

Conn/Ulster 618 491 394 96 32 92

18% 18% 17% 20% 27% 18%

Area

Urban 2,092 1,694 1,420 274 78 294

61% 61% 62% 58% 64% 58%

Rural 1,329 1,061 858 202 44 210

39% 39% 38% 42% 36% 42%

Party Support

Fianna Fail 409 351 301 50 23 35

12% 13% 13% 10% 19% 7%

Fine Gael 739 702 607 96 13 21

22% 26% 27% 20% 10% 4%

Labour 246 229 212 17 8 9

7% 8% 9% 3% 6% 2%

Green Party 69 44 28 16 5 20

2% 2% 1% 3% 4% 4%

Sinn Fein 440 403 342 61 3 34

13% 15% 15% 13% 3% 7%

Independent/Others 404 337 289 49 10 52

12% 12% 13% 10% 8% 10%

Would not/Don't Know 1,114 688 500 188 60 333

33% 25% 22% 39% 49% 66%

Likelihood

Would vote 2,754 2,754 2,278 476 - -

81% 100% 100% 100% - -


J3719


Analysis of Sample


Wouldvote


Wouldprobably vote

Might/might not

Wouldnot Vote

Weighted 3,421 2,754 2,278 476 122 503

Unweighted 979 792 661 131 43 133

Might/might not 122 - - - 122 -

4% - - - 100% -

Would not Vote 503 - - - - 503

15% - - - - 100%

Mean 4.27 4.83 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.53

Marital Status

Single 1,087 850 602 248 52 173

32% 31% 26% 52% 42% 34%

Married 1,656 1,357 1,231 126 38 243

48% 49% 54% 26% 31% 48%

Co-habiting 279 235 211 25 13 31

8% 9% 9% 5% 10% 6%

Widowed 210 173 122 51 13 21

6% 6% 5% 11% 11% 4%

Divorced/seperated 171 122 95 27 6 35

5% 4% 4% 6% 5% 7%

Refused 18 18 18 - - -

1% 1% 1% - - -

Questionnaire

BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES POLL QUESTIONNAIRE – Sept 2012

Good Morning/afternoon/evening my name is ………………… (Name) and I am calling from

Behaviour and Attitudes, the independent market research company based in Dublin.

We are currently conducting a study on a number of issues. The study will take less than 10

minutes to complete.

The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all

results will be shown in aggregate form and for quality control purposes this call may be

monitored by a supervisor.

ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+

Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the

Government is running the country?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job

as Taoiseach?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his

job as Tanaiste?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job

as leader of Fianna Fail?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

J.3985

Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job

as leader of Sinn Fein?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job

as leader of The Green Party?

Satisfied 1

Dissatisfied 2

No opinion 3

Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate

would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT. IF RESPONDENT

UNSURE PROBE: Please think about it for a minute.

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour Party 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Would not vote 10

Q.8 Would you or would you not support a change in the law to permit abortion in cases

where the life of the mother is at risk?

Would support change 1

Would not support change 2

Don’t know/no opinion 3

Q.9 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE TO APPROPRIATE CODE

Would definitely vote 1

Would probably vote 2

Might/might not vote 3

Would probably not vote 4

Would definitely not vote 5

Don’t know 6

Q.10 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last year’s General Election? DO NOT READ OUT

Q.11 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?

Yes, eligible 1

No – not eligible 2

Don’t know 3

Q.12 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?

Yes 1

No 2

Don’t know 3

Fianna Fail 1

Fine Gael 2

Labour 3

Green Party 4

Workers Party 5

Sinn Fein 6

Independent 7

Other specify _________________ 8

Don’t know 9

Did not vote 10

Thank You

sunday%20times%20september%202012%20%20poll

Documents

technical appendix

technical adjustment

rdd mobile telephone

rdd landline numbers

opinion poll

times behaviour attitudes

subsequent survey results

eligible irish voters