j 4974%20sunday%20times%20report%20%20sept%202013
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Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudes September, 2013 Opinion Poll 10th – 17th September, 2013
Prepared for
Prepared by Ian McShane
J.4769
2
Technical Appendix
3
Technical Appendix
● The results of this opinion poll are based upon a representative sample of 934 eligible Irish voters aged 18 years +.
● As such, the results can be deemed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
● Fieldwork was conducted over the period 10th – 17th September with interviewing carried out at the Behaviour & Attitudes Computer Aided Telephone Interviewing (CATI) Unit at Milltown House in Dublin.
● Interviewing was conducted across all 43 constituencies in the country with households selected for interview by way of Random Digit Dialling (RDD).
● The sample is split across RDD landline numbers and RDD mobile telephone numbers, so as to ensure that individuals living in landline only households, mobile only households, and households with both a landline and mobile telephone are represented in their correct proportions.
4
Technical Appendix
● The subsequent survey results are weighted to reflect the known demographic profile of Irish adults, utilising the most recently published census population estimates from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
● Party support levels are subsequently realigned in accordance with a technical adjustment factor, designed to smooth the effects of extreme highs and lows in support levels for individual parties as measured at a single point in time, and taking variable election day turnout levels into account.
● All aspects of the survey, including the Party Support adjustment factor, are implemented in accordance with the technical and ethical guidelines set down by the Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO) and the European Society of Opinion & Market Research (ESOMAR).
5
Charted Summary
6
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels
12th Feb
2011 (f/w: 31st Jan – 12th Feb,
2011)
24th Aug, 2011 (f/w : 16th – 24th Aug,
2011)
2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w : 20th
Sept – 2nd Oct,
2011)
18th Oct, 2011 (f/w : 16th – 18th Oct,
2011)
12th Dec. 2011 (f/w : 7th-12th Dec,
2011)
20th Feb
2012 (f/w : 15th – 20th Feb.
2012)
17th Apr, 2012 (f/w : 11th – 17th Apr.
2012)
23rd May 2012 (f/w: 18th – 23rd May,
2012)
9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th Sept
2012)
13th Nov 2012 (f/w: 1st- 13th Nov
2012)
21st Jan
2013 (f/w: 15th –
21st Jan.
2013)
26th Mar
2013 (f/w: 11th -26th Mar.
2013)
24th Jun 2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June
2013)
17th Sept 2013
(f/w 10th Sept –
17th Sept 2013)
The Government
5% 42% 34% 36% 26% 26% 29% 31% 24% 26% 22% 25% 24% 24%
Micheál Martin
43% 40% 31% 36% 40% 33% 34% 41% 34% 42% 48% 44% 43% 37%
Enda Kenny 40% 62% 51% 58% 44% 41% 47% 42% 38% 41% 39% 39% 37% 34%
Eamon Gilmore
55% 52% 43% 46% 35% 34% 37% 32% 34% 29% 26% 29% 26% 26%
Gerry Adams
40% 48% 50% 50% 48% 46% 43% 42% 39% 40% 43% 45% 43% 41%
Eamon Ryan - 34% 30% 30% 30% 25% 29% 29% 27% 27% 30% 29% 30% 30%
Q.2 Q.3
Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country? Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his job as (…….)?
7
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party Support Levels
12th Feb. 2011 (f/w: 31st
Jan – 12th Feb,
2011)
24th Aug, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 24th Aug,
2011)
2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w: 20th
Sept – 2nd Oct,
2011)
18th Oct, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 18th Oct,
2011)
12th Dec. 2011 (f/w :
7th-12th Dec,
2011)
20th Feb. 2012 (f/w: 15th – 20th Feb.
2012)
17th Apr, 2012 (f/w: 11th – 17th Apr.
2012)
23rd May 2012 (f/w: 18th – 23rd May,
2012)
9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th Sept
2012)
13th Nov 2012 (f/w: 1st- 13th Nov
2012)
21st Jan
2013 (f/w: 15th – 21st
Jan. 2013)
26th Mar
2013 (f/w: 11th -26th Mar.
2013)
24th Jun
2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June
2013)
17th Sept 2013 (f/w 10th
Sept – 17th Sept
2013)
Fianna Fáil 11% 12% 11% 11% 15% 11% 12% 12% 12% 16% 19% 19% 19% 15%
Fine Gael 26% 35% 26% 27% 22% 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% 17% 19% 19% 19%
Labour 17% 9% 10% 11% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 4% 5% 6%
Sinn Féin 10% 10% 12% 14% 15% 18% 14% 17% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 14%
Green Party
1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Independents/Others
10% 10% 10% 9% 12% 11% 12% 10% 12% 11% 9% 15% 12% 14%
Undecided 25% 22% 28% 27% 27% 30% 30% 28% 30% 29% 33% 27% 29% 30%
Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
8
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted)
12th Feb, 2011 (f/w: 31st
Jan – 12th Feb,
2011)
General
Election
Result 25th Feb
24th Aug, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 24th Aug,
2011)
2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w: 20th
Sept – 2nd Oct,
2011)
18th Oct, 2011 (f/w: 16th – 18th Oct,
2011)
12th Dec. 2011 (f/w: 7th-12th Dec,
2011)
20th Feb, 2012 (f/w: 15th – 20th Feb.
2012)
17th Apr, 2012 (f/w: 11th – 17th Apr.
2012)
23rd May 2012 (f/w: 18th – 23rd May,
2012)
9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th
Sept 2012)
13th Nov 2012 (f/w: 1st- 13th
Nov2012)
21st Jan
2013 (f/w: 15th – 21stJan.
2013)
26th Mar
2013 (f/w: 11th -26th Mar.
2013)
24th Jun
2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June
2013)
17th Sept 2013 (f/w 10th
Sept – 17th Sept
2013)
Fianna Fáil 15% 17% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% 17% 17% 18% 23% 28% 27% 27% 21%
Fine Gael 34% 36% 44% 36% 37% 30% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 26% 26% 26% 27%
Labour 23% 19% 12% 14% 15% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 10% 6% 7% 8%
Sinn Féin 14% 10% 13% 17% 19% 21% 25% 20% 23% 19% 17% 20% 17% 19% 20%
Green Party 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Independent/ Others
14% 16% 12% 13% 13% 15% 15% 17% 14% 17% 16% 14% 21% 17% 20%
Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
9
Party Support Adjustment Factor: Technical Note
● Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science. All the evidence shows that support for individual parties can swing dramatically in the period between elections- very often outside the bounds of historic election results.
● What to do in these circumstances? Most polling companies in Britain and Ireland publish their raw survey results as an index of fluctuations in the emotional mood of voters. They also build in an adjustment based on a number of factors. Where we have reports of how people voted in the last general election as well as how they intend to vote in the next one we can use these data to model the likely level of swing from the last election results.
● We then add back in the forecasts of voters who have not voted last time or do not answer that particular question.
● Finally we take into account each individuals stated likelihood of voting in a forthcoming General Election.
● This is the basis of the adjusted voting forecast in Behaviour & Attitudes polls.
10
Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)
● Adjusted figures based on:
All who state they would definitely vote
Weighting of those respondents who give a definite answer as to who they would vote for in a general election and who they voted for in the last election, in line with the result of the last election.
Making no adjustment to stated voting intention of those who do not indicate how they voted in last election.
2nd Oct, 2011 (f/w: 20th Sept – 2nd Oct,
2011)
18th Oct, 2011 (f/w: 16th
– 18th Oct,
2011)
12th Dec. 2011 (f/w: 7th-12th Dec,
2011)
20th Feb, 2012 (f/w: 15th
– 20th Feb.
2012)
17th Apr, 2012 (f/w: 11th
– 17th Apr.
2012)
23rd May 2012 (f/w: 18th
– 23rd May,
2012)
9th Sept. 2012 (f/w: 4th -9th Sept
2012)
13th Nov 2012 (f/w: 1st- 13th Nov
2012)
21st Jan
2013 (f/w: 15th
– 21stJan.
2013)
26th Mar
2013 (f/w: 11th -26th Mar.
2013)
24th Jun
2013 (f/w: 11th – 24th June
2013)
17th Sept 2013 (f/w 10th Sept
– 17th Sept
2013)
Fianna Fáil 16% 14% 18% 16% 15% 16% 16% 22% 24% 23% 24% 21%
Fine Gael 34% 35% 29% 33% 33% 33% 31% 30% 26% 27% 27% 25%
Labour 16% 16% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 11% 7% 7% 11%
Sinn Féin 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% 17% 18% 14% 19% 15% 16% 18%
Green Party 3% 1% 3% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Independents/Others
17% 16% 18% 16% 18% 18% 19% 19% 18% 25% 23% 23%
Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
11
Party Support Levels x Constituency Size (Excluding Undecided - Adjusted)
TOTAL
CONSTITUENCY SIZE
5 Seat Constituencies
4 Seat Constituencies
3 Seat Constituencies
Fianna Fáil 21% 19% 26% 16%
Fine Gael 25% 25% 22% 28%
Labour 11% 11% 9% 13%
Sinn Féin 18% 15% 19% 20%
Green Party 3% 2% 5% 2%
Independents/Others 23% 27% 20% 21%
Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
Fine Gael and Labour support peaks in three seat constituencies. Fianna Fáil does particularly well in the four seaters, while Sinn Féin support is highest amongst three
and four seat constituencies. Independents and smaller parties represent the strongest bloc in the five seaters, which augurs well for their electoral prospects.
12
Likely Voting Intentions and Level of Understanding – Seanad Referendum
Base: All Eligible Voters Voting intention
17th Sept 2013
(f/w 10th Sept – 17th Sept 2013)
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad
49%
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
33%
Don’t know 15%
Will not vote 3%
Excluding Don’t know & will not vote
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad 60%
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
40%
Base: All Eligible Voters Level of Understanding
17th Sept 2013 (f/w 10th Sept – 17th Sept 2013)
Understand it very well 16%
Understand it quite well 19%
Understand it to some extent 29%
Do not understand it particularly well 16%
Do not understand it at all 19%
Q.8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad. People will be asked to vote either in favour of or against abolishing the Seanad. Are you yourself likely to vote yes in favour of the abolition of the Seanad, or no against the abolition of the Seanad?
Q.9 And thinking of the forthcoming Seanad Eireann Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Seanad Eireann referendum is about?
13
Likely Voting Intention in Seanad Referendum x Demographics
Q.8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad. People will be asked to vote either in favour of or against abolishing the Seanad. Are you yourself likely to vote yes in favour of the abolition of the Seanad, or no against the abolition of the Seanad?
Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Gender Age Class Region Area
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins ter
Munster
Conn/ Ulster
Urban Rural
Base: 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad
49 55 44 40 55 52 52 47 53 46 45 52 56 48 51
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
33 31 34 35 26 38 33 32 32 33 37 29 32 32 33
Don’t know 15 11 19 23 15 8 14 18 6 19 16 15 10 17 13
Will not vote 3 3 2 2 4 1 2 3 9 2 2 5 1 3 3
Support for the abolition of the Seanad is strongest amongst males, and those aged 35 years plus.
14
Likely Voting Intention in Seanad Referendum x Party Support
Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Party Support
Fianna Fail Fine Gael Labour Green Party
Sinn Fein Indep endent/ Others
Would not/ DK
Base: 934 147 170 59 25 128 126 279
% % % % % % % %
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad
49 37 61 56 42 51 58 43
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
33 50 24 27 45 26 35 32
Don’t know 15 13 11 17 13 23 7 20
Will not vote 3 - 4 - - 1 - 6
Q.8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad. People will be asked to vote either in favour of or against abolishing the Seanad. Are you yourself likely to vote yes in favour of the abolition of the Seanad, or no against the abolition of the Seanad?
Opposition to the abolition of the Seanad is greatest amongst Fianna Fáil and Green Party supporters, with many Sinn Féin voters yet to decide.
15
How well do you understand the Seanad Referendum x Demographics
Q.9 And thinking of the forthcoming Seanad Eireann Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Seanad Eireann referendum is about?
Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Gender Age Class Region Area
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins ter
Munster
Conn/ Ulster
Urban Rural
Base: 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Understand it very well
16 22 12 6 16 28 21 15 7 20 17 13 16 19 13
Understand it quite well
19 24 15 14 23 20 23 16 24 18 20 23 14 17 22
Understand it to some extent
29 25 33 29 30 27 29 28 36 29 25 30 33 29 30
Do not understand it particularly well
16 14 18 22 15 10 16 15 22 12 17 14 22 15 17
Do not understand it at all
19 15 23 28 16 15 12 27 12 20 21 20 15 20 18
16
How well do you understand Seanad Referendum x Party Support
Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Party Support
Fianna Fail
Fine Gael Labour Green Party
Sinn Fein Indep endent/ Others
Would not/ DK
Base: 934 147 170 59 25 128 126 279
% % % % % % % %
Understand it very well
16 18 18 23 7 11 23 13
Understand it quite well
19 16 24 17 28 18 23 16
Understand it to some extent
29 36 32 27 24 26 30 26
Do not understand it particularly well
16 17 14 23 12 20 9 17
Do not understand it at all
19 13 12 9 28 25 15 28
Q.9 And thinking of the forthcoming Seanad Eireann Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Seanad Eireann referendum is about?
17
Likely Voting Intentions and Level of Understanding – Court of Appeal Referendum
Base: All Eligible Voters Voting intention
17th Sept 2013
(f/w 10th Sept – 17th Sept 2013)
Will vote yes to allow for these changes
59%
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
16%
Don’t know 22%
Will not vote 3%
Excluding Don’t know & will not vote
Will vote yes to allow for these changes 78%
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
22%
Base: All Eligible Voters Level of Understanding
17th Sept 2013 (f/w 10th Sept – 17th Sept 2013)
Understand it very well 6%
Understand it quite well 9%
Understand it to some extent 30%
Do not understand it particularly well 21%
Do not understand it at all 33%
Q.11 And still thinking of that Court of Appeal Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Court of Appeal Referendum is about?
Q.10 On October 4th next, a Court of Appeal Referendum will also be held in which people will be asked to vote on whether or not to allow for:
The establishment of a Court of Appeal, and A change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions in cases where it is asked to decide whether or not a law is constitutional – the ‘one judgement ‘ rule
People will be asked to vote yes or no to this entire proposal. Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions?
18
Likely Voting Intention in Court of Appeal Referendum x Demographics Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Gender Age Class Region Area
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins ter
Munster
Conn/ Ulster
Urban Rural
Base: 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Will vote yes to allow for these changes
59 65 54 67 55 57 59 60 55 63 60 57 57 60 57
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
16 16 17 16 15 18 13 20 10 14 15 18 18 16 17
Don’t know 22 16 27 15 26 22 26 17 28 21 23 20 23 21 23
Will not vote 3 3 2 2 4 2 2 3 7 1 2 5 2 2 3
Q.10 On October 4th next, a Court of Appeal Referendum will also be held in which people will be asked to vote on whether or not to allow for:
The establishment of a Court of Appeal, and A change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions in cases where it is asked to decide whether or not a law is constitutional – the ‘one judgement ‘ rule
People will be asked to vote yes or no to this entire proposal. Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions?
Support for the proposed changes in the Court of Appeal Referendum is high across all demographic groupings.
19
Likely Voting Intention in Court of Appeal Referendum x Party Support
Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Party Support
Fianna Fail
Fine Gael Labour Green Party
Sinn Fein Indep endent/ Others
Would not/ DK
Base: 934 147 170 59 25 128 126 279
% % % % % % % %
Will vote yes to allow for these changes
59 64 60 75 84 61 56 52
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
16 17 19 13 5 22 20 12
Don’t know 22 20 19 12 11 15 23 30
Will not vote 3 - 3 - - 2 1 6
Q.10 On October 4th next, a Court of Appeal Referendum will also be held in which people will be asked to vote on whether or not to allow for:
The establishment of a Court of Appeal, and A change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions in cases where it is asked to decide whether or not a law is constitutional – the ‘one judgement ‘ rule.
People will be asked to vote yes or no to this entire proposal. Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions?
20
How well do you understand the Court of Appeal Referendum x Demographics
Q.11 And still thinking of that Court of Appeal Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Court of Appeal Referendum is about?
Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Gender Age Class Region Area
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin Leins ter
Munster
Conn/ Ulster
Urban Rural
Base: 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Understand it very well
6 8 4 6 6 7 7 7 - 9 5 6 4 7 5
Understand it quite well
9 11 7 9 8 9 11 7 8 13 6 9 7 10 8
Understand it to some extent
30 32 29 31 28 33 26 33 33 33 30 29 30 33 27
Do not understand it particularly well
21 20 23 22 22 20 21 22 18 16 23 24 22 19 25
Do not understand it at all
33 29 36 31 36 31 35 31 40 29 35 32 36 32 35
21
How well do you understand Court of Appeal Referendum x Party Support
Base: All Eligible Voters
Total
Party Support
Fianna Fail
Fine Gael Labour Green Party
Sinn Fein Indep endent/ Others
Would not/ DK
Base: 934 147 170 59 25 128 126 279
% % % % % % % %
Understand it very well
6 5 6 14 3 6 7 5
Understand it quite well
9 12 10 16 12 10 5 6
Understand it to some extent
30 33 32 24 26 30 34 29
Do not understand it particularly well
21 21 23 34 43 22 13 20
Do not understand it at all
33 29 29 11 17 32 42 39
Q.11 And still thinking of that Court of Appeal Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Court of Appeal Referendum is about?
22
Commentary
23
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Background
Fieldwork for today’s poll was conducted over the period Tuesday, 10th September – Tuesday, 17th September. As such, it represents the traditional ‘back to school’ post summer recess poll, which traditionally registers lower than average ratings for the various party leaders as a result of their having fallen off the public radar during the summer months.
The socio-political context leading up to this month’s survey was, however, somewhat atypical for the time of year, for a number of reasons.
Firstly, the date of the announcement of the 2014 Budget has been brought forward this year from its traditional mid December slot to October 14th next. The effect of this scheduling has been a period of quite intense debate around the likely content of the budget over the last couple of months, with the electorate’s mind likely to have been more focused on financial and political matters to a greater extent than they ordinarily would have been during these traditionally fallow months.
At a macro level, it could be argued that the Government has managed to play to public sentiment by way of holding out the hope, or indeed expectation, that next year’s budget will not be as harsh as originally envisaged, with adjustments of between 2.5 and 2.8 billion euro being mooted, rather than the originally targeted 3.1 billion.
24
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Background
While the average voter will find it difficult to gauge the practical benefit of the potentially less austere budget on their own financial wellbeing, the underlying message emanating from Government quarters of late has been quite consistent; employment is slowly increasing, house prices are edging upwards again, consumer and business confidence is improving significantly, and we are about to exit the IMF/EU/ECB bailout in a couple of months time on the back of our last austerity budget of the programme.
This is not, of course, to say that voters feel the economy, and hence their household wellbeing, has improved dramatically of late, with the great majority of individuals remaining under severe financial and emotional pressure.
All eyes are on the likely nature and scale of cuts looming in next month’s Budget, with noticeable cracks appearing between Fine Gael and Labour cabinet colleagues as to precisely where the axe should fall.
25
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Background
The second great area of debate over the last couple of months has of course been around the forthcoming referendum concerning the potential abolition of the Seanad.
At the time of polling, the official Yes and No camp campaigns had just been launched, with many voters likely to decide how they will vote between now and the day of polling – Friday 4th October.
While Fine Gael in particular have downplayed the potential political fall-out from a defeat of the Referendum proposal, a No vote would undoubtedly damage the credibility of Enda Kenny, and bolster the standing of Fianna Fáil and Micheál Martin especially.
Today’s poll focuses on the current state of play in relation to both the Seanad and Appeals Court Referenda, and includes the crucial reading on the extent to which they are understood by the electorate at this stage of the campaign.
26
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels
The results of the last Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Poll in June registered little or no shifts in party support from the previous poll carried out three months prior to that.
At that stage, Fine Gael remained the most popular party in the country, albeit with just a three point lead over Fianna Fáil in second place. Sinn Féin and Independents support levels remained on 16% and 23% respectively, with Labour at an all time low of 7%.
Fast forward to this week’s poll, and we see that Fianna Fáil support has dropped three points since June to 21%, Fine Gael is down by an insignificant two percentage points to 25%, while Labour’s support has settled back to the 11% it registered in January of this year.
Sinn Féin, meanwhile has edged up by two points to 18%, with Independent and other candidates sitting on 23% - no change from June.
All in all, therefore, the combined Government coalition party vote now sits at 36% - a resilient performance in comparison with the 33% registered three months ago. Indeed, Government satisfaction, at 24%, is identical to that measured in June.
With regard to the main opposition parties, the combined Fianna Fáil/ Sinn Féin vote of 39% in this month’s Poll is practically identical, to the 40% garnered by the two parties in June. The race is still very much on between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin for the title of main opposition party, with both well positioned to make advances in next year’s European and Local Elections.
27
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels
For the first time, Behaviour & Attitudes has run a special analysis of its polling data, whereby party support levels are analysed by type of constituency, i.e. all three seater constituencies combined, compared with all four seater constituencies, and all five seater constituencies combined. The rationale for instigating this analysis relates to the fact that the fate of so many parties at the 2016 election is likely to be decided upon based on which candidate manages to clamber over the line during the last counts in five seater constituencies in particular.
The results of this analysis make interesting reading, and suggest that support for Fine Gael and Labour peaks in three seat constituencies, Fianna Fáil does particularly well in the four seaters, while Sinn Féin support is highest amongst three and four seat constituencies.
The greatest threat to the coalition partners within five seat constituencies is in fact from Independents and members of smaller parties, with over a quarter of the support across these largest constituencies currently going to such candidates.
With regard to party leader satisfaction levels, the last four Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Polls prior to today’s have positioned Micheál Martin as leader of Fianna Fáil and Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin as the most popular party leaders.
28
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Party Support and Leader Satisfaction Levels
Today’s poll consolidates this trend, with Gerry Adams (41%) and Micheál Martin (37%) the most popular party leaders. As is usually the case in post summer recess polls, the satisfaction levels for all party leaders, with in this instance the exception of Eamon Gilmore, are all down on the most recent poll.
29
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Seanad Eireann & Court of Appeal Referenda
Of the two Referenda being held on October 4th next, it is clear that the Court of Appeal Referendum has yet to register with a significant proportion of the population. Thus, with 25% undecided as to how they will vote in that Referendum, and 54% professing little or no understanding of its content, there is some way to go before a final call can be made on the precise outcome of that vote.
At a broad level, however, the fact that 59% suggest they are likely to vote yes, and just 16% No would suggest that this Referendum is likely to be passed with a comfortable majority.
With regard to the Seanad Eireann referendum, just 18% remain undecided, with 49% suggesting that they will vote Yes in favour of the abolition of the Seanad, and 33% No against its abolition.
Excluding the undecideds, the current state of play indicates that the electorate is veering towards voting to abolish the Seanad by a ratio of about 60/40.
Behaviour & Attitude’s analysis of levels of understanding of previous Referenda in its Opinion Polls suggests that in or around 30% of the electorate should understand the Treaty very/quite well, and no more than 15% to 20% should indicate that they do not understand it at all by voting day if it is to have a reasonable chance of being passed.
30
Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll Series
Seanad Eireann & Court of Appeal Referenda
Today’s Poll indicates that 35% understand the Seanad Referendum very/quite well, with 19% indicating they do not understand it at all.
This pattern of response would suggest that the most likely outcome will be that the Referendum will be passed, albeit with a majority of less than the current 20%.
Tabular Data
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 1Table 1
Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
Yes, eligible 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
95% 94% 96% 89% 96% 100% 94% 95% 98% 93% 96% 97% 93% 94% 96% 96% 98% 94% 92% 98% 97% 91% 97% 98% 96% 88% 84% 92% 96%
No – not eligible 143 99 44 94 49 - 70 69 4 55 31 21 36 101 42 17 16 11 - 7 13 80 65 48 16 22 49 67 76
4% 6% 3% 8% 4% - 5% 4% 2% 6% 3% 2% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 6% - 1% 3% 7% 2% 2% 3% 11% 13% 5% 3%
Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)
33 9 23 29 3 - 9 24 - 9 4 5 14 20 13 1 - - 8 3 - 21 12 8 5 2 12 29 4
1% 1% 1% 3% 0% - 1% 1% - 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% - - 8% 1% - 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 0%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 2Table 1
Q1 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
Yes, eligible 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
95% 95% 94% 95% 93% 96%
No – not eligible 143 68 75 45 66 32
4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 3%
Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)
33 18 15 8 17 8
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 3Table 2
Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Satisfied 771 492 279 213 258 300 322 353 95 173 203 247 148 435 336 85 385 72 13 31 56 128 704 585 119 44 23 184 586
24% 31% 17% 20% 21% 30% 25% 21% 38% 21% 23% 27% 23% 22% 26% 17% 61% 39% 16% 7% 12% 13% 26% 26% 26% 24% 7% 16% 28%
Dissatisfied 2,410 1,051 1,359 792 938 680 953 1,308 148 615 653 670 472 1,485 925 403 224 105 66 411 400 801 1,974 1,656 318 135 296 917 1,493
74% 67% 81% 76% 77% 68% 73% 76% 59% 76% 74% 73% 73% 75% 72% 82% 36% 58% 79% 90% 87% 83% 72% 73% 68% 74% 89% 80% 71%
No opinion 84 35 49 43 21 20 26 50 8 20 29 4 31 63 21 5 19 6 4 13 2 35 67 39 27 3 14 51 33
3% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 0% 5% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 5% 3% 0% 4% 2% 2% 6% 2% 4% 4% 2%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 4Table 2
Q2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Satisfied 771 362 408 267 229 274
24% 20% 27% 24% 20% 26%
Dissatisfied 2,410 1,357 1,052 785 878 747
74% 76% 71% 71% 78% 72%
No opinion 84 55 29 48 20 17
3% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 5Table 3
Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Satisfied 1,094 626 467 366 371 357 474 502 118 274 257 318 245 640 454 115 478 69 34 65 85 248 982 807 175 52 60 299 795
34% 40% 28% 35% 30% 36% 36% 29% 47% 34% 29% 34% 38% 32% 35% 23% 76% 38% 40% 14% 19% 26% 36% 35% 38% 29% 18% 26% 38%
Dissatisfied 2,032 904 1,128 598 812 622 782 1,120 130 482 580 574 396 1,222 810 370 129 107 46 375 351 653 1,668 1,418 250 113 247 750 1,282
62% 57% 67% 57% 67% 62% 60% 65% 52% 60% 65% 62% 61% 62% 63% 75% 21% 58% 55% 83% 77% 68% 61% 62% 54% 62% 74% 65% 61%
No opinion 139 46 93 84 34 20 45 89 4 52 48 30 9 122 17 8 22 7 4 14 22 62 95 55 40 16 28 103 36
4% 3% 5% 8% 3% 2% 3% 5% 2% 6% 5% 3% 1% 6% 1% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 3% 2% 9% 9% 8% 9% 2%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 6Table 3
Q3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job as Taoiseach?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Satisfied 1,094 564 530 372 381 341
34% 32% 36% 34% 34% 33%
Dissatisfied 2,032 1,101 931 688 694 650
62% 62% 62% 63% 62% 63%
No opinion 139 110 28 40 52 47
4% 6% 2% 4% 5% 5%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 7Table 4
Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Satisfied 849 418 431 272 272 305 328 449 72 202 203 292 152 472 377 90 364 77 17 62 63 176 762 609 153 45 42 299 549
26% 26% 26% 26% 22% 31% 25% 26% 28% 25% 23% 32% 23% 24% 29% 18% 58% 42% 20% 14% 14% 18% 28% 27% 33% 25% 13% 26% 26%
Dissatisfied 2,182 1,069 1,113 641 873 668 915 1,091 176 545 594 572 471 1,326 856 372 249 95 57 362 368 679 1,815 1,564 251 117 245 677 1,505
67% 68% 66% 61% 72% 67% 70% 64% 70% 67% 67% 62% 72% 67% 67% 75% 40% 52% 68% 80% 80% 70% 66% 69% 54% 65% 73% 59% 71%
No opinion 234 90 143 135 72 26 58 171 4 60 89 58 27 185 48 31 16 10 10 30 27 109 168 107 60 20 46 176 58
7% 6% 8% 13% 6% 3% 4% 10% 2% 7% 10% 6% 4% 9% 4% 6% 3% 6% 12% 7% 6% 11% 6% 5% 13% 11% 14% 15% 3%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 8Table 4
Q4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his job as Tanaiste?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Satisfied 849 425 424 263 284 302
26% 24% 28% 24% 25% 29%
Dissatisfied 2,182 1,166 1,016 750 761 671
67% 66% 68% 68% 68% 65%
No opinion 234 184 49 87 81 65
7% 10% 3% 8% 7% 6%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 9Table 5
Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Satisfied 1,206 676 530 290 469 447 458 663 84 279 327 351 248 729 477 351 256 48 22 145 169 215 1,079 916 164 54 72 368 838
37% 43% 31% 28% 39% 45% 35% 39% 33% 35% 37% 38% 38% 37% 37% 71% 41% 26% 27% 32% 37% 22% 39% 40% 35% 30% 22% 32% 40%
Dissatisfied 1,704 757 947 613 629 462 702 854 148 430 446 476 351 1,030 674 114 312 115 50 289 252 572 1,386 1,148 238 91 222 613 1,091
52% 48% 56% 59% 52% 46% 54% 50% 59% 53% 50% 52% 54% 52% 53% 23% 50% 63% 59% 64% 55% 59% 50% 50% 51% 50% 67% 53% 52%
No opinion 355 145 210 145 119 91 140 195 20 99 112 94 51 224 131 28 61 20 12 21 37 177 279 217 63 37 39 171 184
11% 9% 12% 14% 10% 9% 11% 11% 8% 12% 13% 10% 8% 11% 10% 6% 10% 11% 14% 5% 8% 18% 10% 10% 13% 20% 12% 15% 9%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 10Table 5
Q5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Satisfied 1,206 663 543 405 408 393
37% 37% 36% 37% 36% 38%
Dissatisfied 1,704 895 809 563 606 535
52% 50% 54% 51% 54% 52%
No opinion 355 217 138 133 112 110
11% 12% 9% 12% 10% 11%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 11Table 6
Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Satisfied 1,347 760 587 468 511 367 530 737 80 328 341 411 268 842 505 209 218 55 36 408 152 270 1,174 943 231 58 115 513 833
41% 48% 35% 45% 42% 37% 41% 43% 32% 41% 39% 45% 41% 42% 39% 42% 35% 30% 43% 90% 33% 28% 43% 41% 50% 32% 34% 45% 39%
Dissatisfied 1,483 658 826 439 528 516 604 744 135 346 425 405 307 809 674 249 351 90 35 35 245 478 1,226 1,058 168 92 161 409 1,074
45% 42% 49% 42% 43% 52% 46% 43% 54% 43% 48% 44% 47% 41% 53% 50% 56% 49% 42% 8% 53% 50% 45% 46% 36% 51% 48% 35% 51%
No opinion 434 159 275 141 178 116 167 231 37 134 119 106 75 332 103 35 60 38 13 12 61 215 344 279 65 31 58 230 204
13% 10% 16% 13% 15% 12% 13% 13% 15% 17% 13% 12% 12% 17% 8% 7% 10% 21% 15% 3% 13% 22% 13% 12% 14% 17% 18% 20% 10%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 12Table 6
Q6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Fein?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Satisfied 1,347 718 629 431 444 472
41% 40% 42% 39% 39% 45%
Dissatisfied 1,483 780 703 531 536 416
45% 44% 47% 48% 48% 40%
No opinion 434 276 158 138 147 150
13% 16% 11% 13% 13% 14%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 13Table 7
Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Satisfied 965 511 454 361 299 305 380 535 50 265 273 253 174 644 321 174 199 51 58 171 140 173 874 735 139 54 37 289 677
30% 32% 27% 34% 25% 31% 29% 31% 20% 33% 31% 27% 27% 32% 25% 35% 32% 28% 69% 38% 31% 18% 32% 32% 30% 30% 11% 25% 32%
Dissatisfied 1,497 660 837 474 598 425 631 737 129 318 409 475 295 833 665 217 261 75 18 200 206 521 1,185 1,005 180 99 209 528 970
46% 42% 50% 45% 49% 43% 48% 43% 51% 39% 46% 52% 45% 42% 52% 44% 41% 41% 22% 44% 45% 54% 43% 44% 39% 55% 63% 46% 46%
No opinion 802 406 396 213 320 269 290 439 72 224 204 193 181 506 296 102 169 57 8 84 112 270 686 540 146 29 87 336 466
25% 26% 23% 20% 26% 27% 22% 26% 29% 28% 23% 21% 28% 26% 23% 21% 27% 31% 10% 18% 24% 28% 25% 24% 31% 16% 26% 29% 22%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 14Table 7
Q7 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job as leader of The Green Party?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Satisfied 965 457 508 342 356 267
30% 26% 34% 31% 32% 26%
Dissatisfied 1,497 833 665 509 468 520
46% 47% 45% 46% 42% 50%
No opinion 802 485 317 250 302 250
25% 27% 21% 23% 27% 24%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
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Page 15Table 8
Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Fianna Fail 493 234 259 144 187 163 189 266 39 115 142 147 89 326 167 493 - - - - - - 444 405 38 21 28 148 345
15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 16% 14% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16% 14% 16% 13% 100% - - - - - - 16% 18% 8% 12% 8% 13% 16%
Fine Gael 629 360 269 143 255 231 251 286 93 134 124 224 147 287 342 - 629 - - - - - 604 475 129 19 7 163 466
19% 23% 16% 14% 21% 23% 19% 17% 37% 17% 14% 24% 23% 14% 27% - 100% - - - - - 22% 21% 28% 10% 2% 14% 22%
Labour 183 102 81 68 63 51 104 78 - 70 60 31 21 140 43 - - 183 - - - - 180 153 27 - 3 59 124
6% 6% 5% 7% 5% 5% 8% 5% - 9% 7% 3% 3% 7% 3% - - 100% - - - - 7% 7% 6% - 1% 5% 6%
Green Party 84 46 38 44 35 5 34 46 4 51 6 25 2 69 15 - - - 84 - - - 72 51 20 - 12 34 50
3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 0% 3% 3% 2% 6% 1% 3% 0% 3% 1% - - - 100% - - - 3% 2% 4% - 4% 3% 2%
Sinn Fein 455 262 193 207 139 109 178 270 6 140 106 109 100 332 123 - - - - 455 - - 418 349 69 7 29 204 251
14% 17% 11% 20% 11% 11% 14% 16% 2% 17% 12% 12% 15% 17% 10% - - - - 100% - - 15% 15% 15% 4% 9% 18% 12%
Independent/Other 458 226 232 104 145 208 187 228 43 105 144 95 113 259 199 - - - - - 458 - 404 381 23 27 26 110 348
14% 14% 14% 10% 12% 21% 14% 13% 17% 13% 16% 10% 17% 13% 16% - - - - - 100% - 15% 17% 5% 15% 8% 10% 16%
Don’t know 712 241 471 289 259 165 291 384 37 155 195 237 125 433 280 - - - - - - 712 587 439 148 66 59 305 407
22% 15% 28% 28% 21% 16% 22% 22% 15% 19% 22% 26% 19% 22% 22% - - - - - - 74% 21% 19% 32% 37% 18% 26% 19%
Would not vote 251 108 144 48 135 68 68 154 30 37 108 53 53 138 113 - - - - - - 251 37 26 11 41 170 129 122
8% 7% 9% 5% 11% 7% 5% 9% 12% 5% 12% 6% 8% 7% 9% - - - - - - 26% 1% 1% 2% 22% 51% 11% 6%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 16Table 8
Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Fianna Fail 493 247 246 171 206 117
15% 14% 17% 16% 18% 11%
Fine Gael 629 327 302 197 214 218
19% 18% 20% 18% 19% 21%
Labour 183 83 99 63 54 66
6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 6%
Green Party 84 50 34 25 35 24
3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Sinn Fein 455 246 209 123 168 164
14% 14% 14% 11% 15% 16%
Independent/Other 458 248 209 190 134 134
14% 14% 14% 17% 12% 13%
Don’t know 712 441 271 212 238 262
22% 25% 18% 19% 21% 25%
Would not vote 251 133 119 120 78 54
8% 7% 8% 11% 7% 5%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 17Table 9
Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
All Irish VotersAll voters excluding undecided
Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 2,301 1,229 1,073 711 823 767 943 1,174 185 615 582 632 472 1,412 889 493 629 183 84 455 458 2,121 1,816 306 75 105 718 1,583
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,301 1,229 1,073 711 823 767 943 1,174 185 615 582 632 472 1,412 889 493 629 183 84 455 458 2,121 1,816 306 75 105 718 1,583
UNWTD 655 350 305 185 246 224 313 306 36 196 163 177 119 456 199 147 170 59 25 128 126 607 535 72 17 31 186 469
Fianna Fail 493 234 259 144 187 163 189 266 39 115 142 147 89 326 167 493 - - - - - 444 405 38 21 28 148 345
21% 19% 24% 20% 23% 21% 20% 23% 21% 19% 24% 23% 19% 23% 19% 100% - - - - - 21% 22% 13% 28% 27% 21% 22%
Fine Gael 629 360 269 143 255 231 251 286 93 134 124 224 147 287 342 - 629 - - - - 604 475 129 19 7 163 466
27% 29% 25% 20% 31% 30% 27% 24% 50% 22% 21% 35% 31% 20% 38% - 100% - - - - 28% 26% 42% 25% 6% 23% 29%
Labour 183 102 81 68 63 51 104 78 - 70 60 31 21 140 43 - - 183 - - - 180 153 27 - 3 59 124
8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 7% 11% 7% - 11% 10% 5% 4% 10% 5% - - 100% - - - 8% 8% 9% - 3% 8% 8%
Green Party 84 46 38 44 35 5 34 46 4 51 6 25 2 69 15 - - - 84 - - 72 51 20 - 12 34 50
4% 4% 4% 6% 4% 1% 4% 4% 2% 8% 1% 4% 0% 5% 2% - - - 100% - - 3% 3% 7% - 12% 5% 3%
Sinn Fein 455 262 193 207 139 109 178 270 6 140 106 109 100 332 123 - - - - 455 - 418 349 69 7 29 204 251
20% 21% 18% 29% 17% 14% 19% 23% 3% 23% 18% 17% 21% 23% 14% - - - - 100% - 20% 19% 22% 10% 28% 28% 16%
Independent/Other 458 226 232 104 145 208 187 228 43 105 144 95 113 259 199 - - - - - 458 404 381 23 27 26 110 348
20% 18% 22% 15% 18% 27% 20% 19% 23% 17% 25% 15% 24% 18% 22% - - - - - 100% 19% 21% 8% 37% 25% 15% 22%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 18Table 9
Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
All Irish VotersAll voters excluding undecided
Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 2,301 1,201 1,100 769 810 722
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,301 1,201 1,100 769 810 722
UNWTD 655 336 319 218 235 202
Fianna Fail 493 247 246 171 206 117
21% 21% 22% 22% 25% 16%
Fine Gael 629 327 302 197 214 218
27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 30%
Labour 183 83 99 63 54 66
8% 7% 9% 8% 7% 9%
Green Party 84 50 34 25 35 24
4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3%
Sinn Fein 455 246 209 123 168 164
20% 20% 19% 16% 21% 23%
Independent/Other 458 248 209 190 134 134
20% 21% 19% 25% 17% 19%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 19Table 10
Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
All voters excluding undecidedWill definitely vote
Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 1,793 967 826 495 630 668 780 881 132 514 481 458 340 1,127 665 372 443 191 55 322 410 1,793 1,793 414 1,378 856 937
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 1,793 967 826 495 630 668 780 881 132 514 481 458 340 1,127 665 372 443 191 55 322 410 1,793 1,793 414 1,378 856 937
UNWTD 535 287 248 127 207 201 268 241 26 168 135 139 93 373 162 120 143 51 14 98 109 535 535 112 423 254 281
Fianna Fail 372 194 177 83 146 143 146 189 36 94 106 101 71 233 139 372 - - - - - 372 372 78 294 180 192
21% 20% 21% 17% 23% 21% 19% 21% 28% 18% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 100% - - - - - 21% 21% 19% 21% 21% 21%
Fine Gael 443 240 203 91 169 184 183 193 66 84 103 159 98 201 242 - 443 - - - - 443 443 89 354 223 221
25% 25% 25% 18% 27% 27% 24% 22% 50% 16% 21% 35% 29% 18% 36% - 100% - - - - 25% 25% 21% 26% 26% 24%
Labour 191 107 84 65 65 62 105 86 - 87 68 31 5 156 36 - - 191 - - - 191 191 48 144 79 113
11% 11% 10% 13% 10% 9% 13% 10% - 17% 14% 7% 1% 14% 5% - - 100% - - - 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 12%
Green Party 55 24 31 25 26 3 24 31 - 37 6 11 - 50 5 - - - 55 - - 55 55 8 47 24 31
3% 2% 4% 5% 4% 0% 3% 4% - 7% 1% 2% - 4% 1% - - - 100% - - 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3%
Sinn Fein 322 189 133 137 95 91 132 191 - 102 79 78 63 231 91 - - - - 322 - 322 322 108 214 148 175
18% 20% 16% 28% 15% 14% 17% 22% - 20% 16% 17% 19% 20% 14% - - - - 100% - 18% 18% 26% 16% 17% 19%
Independent/Other 410 213 197 94 129 186 190 191 29 109 119 78 104 256 153 - - - - - 410 410 410 84 325 203 206
23% 22% 24% 19% 21% 28% 24% 22% 22% 21% 25% 17% 31% 23% 23% - - - - - 100% 23% 23% 20% 24% 24% 22%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 20Table 10
Adjusted Party Support : Q8 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
All voters excluding undecidedWill definitely vote
Total Constituency
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 1,793 610 656 527
100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 1,793 610 656 527
UNWTD 535 179 197 159
Fianna Fail 372 118 169 85
21% 19% 26% 16%
Fine Gael 443 152 144 147
25% 25% 22% 28%
Labour 191 66 57 68
11% 11% 9% 13%
Green Party 55 15 30 10
3% 2% 5% 2%
Sinn Fein 322 93 124 106
18% 15% 19% 20%
Independent/Other 410 166 132 111
23% 27% 20% 21%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 21Table 11
Q8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad.
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad
1,613 863 749 420 670 523 673 806 134 375 397 475 365 955 658 184 383 102 36 231 266 411 1,403 1,207 196 63 147 417 1,196
49% 55% 44% 40% 55% 52% 52% 47% 53% 46% 45% 52% 56% 48% 51% 37% 61% 56% 42% 51% 58% 43% 51% 53% 42% 35% 44% 36% 57%
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
1,064 490 574 362 322 381 431 554 80 263 328 264 209 640 424 245 151 49 37 117 160 306 895 745 150 68 101 323 741
33% 31% 34% 35% 26% 38% 33% 32% 32% 33% 37% 29% 32% 32% 33% 50% 24% 27% 45% 26% 35% 32% 33% 33% 32% 37% 30% 28% 35%
Don’t know 500 175 325 241 176 82 177 308 16 153 141 138 68 335 165 64 70 32 11 104 32 188 405 311 94 44 51 361 140
15% 11% 19% 23% 15% 8% 14% 18% 6% 19% 16% 15% 10% 17% 13% 13% 11% 17% 13% 23% 7% 20% 15% 14% 20% 24% 15% 31% 7%
Will not vote 87 48 39 25 49 13 21 45 22 16 19 45 8 52 35 - 25 - - 3 - 59 42 18 24 7 35 52 36
3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 9% 2% 2% 5% 1% 3% 3% - 4% - - 1% - 6% 2% 1% 5% 4% 10% 4% 2%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 22Table 11
Q8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad.
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad
1,613 852 761 566 548 499
49% 48% 51% 51% 49% 48%
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
1,064 547 517 374 348 342
33% 31% 35% 34% 31% 33%
Don’t know 500 329 172 143 206 151
15% 19% 12% 13% 18% 15%
Will not vote 87 48 40 17 23 46
3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 4%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 23Table 12
Q8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad.
All Irish VotersExcluding DK &Will not vote
Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 2,677 1,353 1,323 782 991 904 1,104 1,359 214 639 725 739 574 1,595 1,082 429 534 151 73 348 426 716 2,298 1,952 346 131 248 740 1,937
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,677 1,353 1,323 782 991 904 1,104 1,359 214 639 725 739 574 1,595 1,082 429 534 151 73 348 426 716 2,298 1,952 346 131 248 740 1,937
UNWTD 778 393 385 199 306 273 368 366 44 214 206 214 144 525 253 127 151 50 21 102 117 210 675 585 90 32 71 189 589
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad
1,613 863 749 420 670 523 673 806 134 375 397 475 365 955 658 184 383 102 36 231 266 411 1,403 1,207 196 63 147 417 1,196
60% 64% 57% 54% 68% 58% 61% 59% 63% 59% 55% 64% 64% 60% 61% 43% 72% 68% 49% 66% 63% 57% 61% 62% 57% 48% 59% 56% 62%
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
1,064 490 574 362 322 381 431 554 80 263 328 264 209 640 424 245 151 49 37 117 160 306 895 745 150 68 101 323 741
40% 36% 43% 46% 32% 42% 39% 41% 37% 41% 45% 36% 36% 40% 39% 57% 28% 32% 51% 34% 37% 43% 39% 38% 43% 52% 41% 44% 38%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 24Table 12
Q8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad.
All Irish VotersExcluding DK &Will not vote
Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 2,677 1,398 1,279 940 896 840
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,677 1,398 1,279 940 896 840
UNWTD 778 399 379 263 276 239
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad
1,613 852 761 566 548 499
60% 61% 60% 60% 61% 59%
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad
1,064 547 517 374 348 342
40% 39% 40% 40% 39% 41%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 25Table 13
Q9 And thinking of the forthcoming Seanad Eireann Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Seanad Eireann referend
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
1. Do not understand it at all
634 239 395 296 190 147 150 454 30 160 187 189 99 403 231 64 73 17 24 115 70 271 416 249 167 61 153 634 -
19% 15% 23% 28% 16% 15% 12% 27% 12% 20% 21% 20% 15% 20% 18% 13% 12% 9% 28% 25% 15% 28% 15% 11% 36% 33% 46% 55% -
2. Do not understand it particularly well
518 223 296 232 184 102 204 259 55 101 151 126 141 297 221 85 90 42 10 89 39 162 411 300 111 57 51 518 -
16% 14% 18% 22% 15% 10% 16% 15% 22% 12% 17% 14% 22% 15% 17% 17% 14% 23% 12% 20% 9% 17% 15% 13% 24% 31% 15% 45% -
3. Understand it to some extent
948 399 549 305 369 274 378 480 90 238 221 273 217 568 379 176 203 50 20 118 135 246 844 712 132 38 66 - 948
29% 25% 33% 29% 30% 27% 29% 28% 36% 29% 25% 30% 33% 29% 30% 36% 32% 27% 24% 26% 30% 26% 31% 31% 28% 21% 20% - 45%
4. Understand it quitewell
628 376 252 150 283 195 299 270 59 147 179 213 90 347 281 80 148 32 24 80 106 158 578 540 38 19 30 - 628
19% 24% 15% 14% 23% 20% 23% 16% 24% 18% 20% 23% 14% 17% 22% 16% 24% 17% 28% 18% 23% 16% 21% 24% 8% 10% 9% - 30%
5. Understand it very well
537 340 196 65 191 281 271 249 17 163 149 121 104 367 170 89 114 42 6 52 107 126 496 479 17 7 33 - 537
16% 22% 12% 6% 16% 28% 21% 15% 7% 20% 17% 13% 16% 19% 13% 18% 18% 23% 7% 11% 23% 13% 18% 21% 4% 4% 10% - 25%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 26Table 13
Q9 And thinking of the forthcoming Seanad Eireann Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Seanad Eireann referend
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
1. Do not understand it at all
634 521 112 197 202 235
19% 29% 8% 18% 18% 23%
2. Do not understand it particularly well
518 368 151 195 180 144
16% 21% 10% 18% 16% 14%
3. Understand it to some extent
948 471 477 294 341 312
29% 27% 32% 27% 30% 30%
4. Understand it quitewell
628 225 403 173 235 219
19% 13% 27% 16% 21% 21%
5. Understand it very well
537 189 348 241 168 128
16% 11% 23% 22% 15% 12%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 27Table 14
Q10 Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Will vote yes, to allowfor these changes
1,935 1,029 906 699 665 571 766 1,030 139 512 530 524 369 1,199 736 313 377 138 70 277 257 502 1,681 1,417 264 86 168 593 1,342
59% 65% 54% 67% 55% 57% 59% 60% 55% 63% 60% 57% 57% 60% 57% 64% 60% 75% 84% 61% 56% 52% 61% 62% 57% 47% 50% 51% 64%
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
536 245 290 169 181 185 174 338 24 113 134 170 119 319 217 83 117 24 4 102 93 113 448 370 78 26 62 226 309
16% 16% 17% 16% 15% 18% 13% 20% 10% 14% 15% 18% 18% 16% 17% 17% 19% 13% 5% 22% 20% 12% 16% 16% 17% 14% 19% 20% 15%
Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)
705 248 457 161 322 222 337 297 71 172 202 183 149 417 289 97 117 21 9 68 105 288 574 471 103 64 68 286 419
22% 16% 27% 15% 26% 22% 26% 17% 28% 21% 23% 20% 23% 21% 23% 20% 19% 12% 11% 15% 23% 30% 21% 21% 22% 35% 20% 25% 20%
Will not vote (WILL NOT VOTE)
89 54 35 18 48 22 24 47 18 11 18 46 13 48 40 - 18 - - 8 3 60 42 23 20 6 36 47 42
3% 3% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 7% 1% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% - 3% - - 2% 1% 6% 2% 1% 4% 3% 11% 4% 2%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 28Table 14
Q10 Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Will vote yes, to allowfor these changes
1,935 724 1,211 630 728 576
59% 41% 81% 57% 65% 56%
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
536 332 204 208 150 178
16% 19% 14% 19% 13% 17%
Don’t know (DO NOT READ OUT)
705 659 46 242 225 238
22% 37% 3% 22% 20% 23%
Will not vote (WILL NOT VOTE)
89 60 29 20 23 45
3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 29Table 15
Q10 Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme
All Irish VotersExcluding DK &Will not vote
Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 2,471 1,274 1,196 868 847 756 940 1,368 163 625 664 693 488 1,518 953 396 495 161 74 379 349 615 2,129 1,787 342 112 230 819 1,652
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,471 1,274 1,196 868 847 756 940 1,368 163 625 664 693 488 1,518 953 396 495 161 74 379 349 615 2,129 1,787 342 112 230 819 1,652
UNWTD 698 360 338 216 260 222 307 354 37 196 185 194 123 477 221 117 135 52 20 104 95 175 606 517 89 27 65 211 487
Will vote yes, to allowfor these changes
1,935 1,029 906 699 665 571 766 1,030 139 512 530 524 369 1,199 736 313 377 138 70 277 257 502 1,681 1,417 264 86 168 593 1,342
78% 81% 76% 81% 79% 76% 82% 75% 85% 82% 80% 76% 76% 79% 77% 79% 76% 85% 94% 73% 73% 82% 79% 79% 77% 77% 73% 72% 81%
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
536 245 290 169 181 185 174 338 24 113 134 170 119 319 217 83 117 24 4 102 93 113 448 370 78 26 62 226 309
22% 19% 24% 19% 21% 24% 18% 25% 15% 18% 20% 24% 24% 21% 23% 21% 24% 15% 6% 27% 27% 18% 21% 21% 23% 23% 27% 28% 19%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 30Table 15
Q10 Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme
All Irish VotersExcluding DK &Will not vote
Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 2,471 1,056 1,415 838 878 754
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,471 1,056 1,415 838 878 754
UNWTD 698 286 412 230 258 210
Will vote yes, to allowfor these changes
1,935 724 1,211 630 728 576
78% 69% 86% 75% 83% 76%
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes
536 332 204 208 150 178
22% 31% 14% 25% 17% 24%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 31Table 16
Q11 And still thinking of that Court of Appeal Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Court of Appeal Referendum is about?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
1. Do not understand it at all
1,079 464 615 326 439 313 449 529 101 230 313 299 236 628 451 145 185 21 14 144 190 380 816 656 160 101 157 595 484
33% 29% 36% 31% 36% 31% 35% 31% 40% 29% 35% 32% 36% 32% 35% 29% 29% 11% 17% 32% 42% 39% 30% 29% 34% 56% 47% 52% 23%
2. Do not understand it particularly well
696 312 384 233 266 196 272 378 46 132 202 218 143 375 320 103 142 63 36 101 58 193 601 461 139 30 65 295 401
21% 20% 23% 22% 22% 20% 21% 22% 18% 16% 23% 24% 22% 19% 25% 21% 23% 34% 43% 22% 13% 20% 22% 20% 30% 17% 19% 26% 19%
3. Understand it to some extent
996 500 496 322 339 335 343 569 84 266 267 267 196 648 347 161 202 44 22 135 155 277 863 764 100 48 84 208 787
30% 32% 29% 31% 28% 33% 26% 33% 33% 33% 30% 29% 30% 33% 27% 33% 32% 24% 26% 30% 34% 29% 31% 33% 21% 26% 25% 18% 37%
4. Understand it quitewell
292 175 116 99 103 89 147 124 21 106 56 81 48 194 98 58 63 29 10 48 24 59 286 242 44 - 6 32 260
9% 11% 7% 9% 8% 9% 11% 7% 8% 13% 6% 9% 7% 10% 8% 12% 10% 16% 12% 10% 5% 6% 10% 11% 9% - 2% 3% 12%
5. Understand it very well
202 127 76 67 69 66 91 112 - 73 46 56 27 138 65 27 38 26 2 27 30 53 179 157 22 2 22 23 180
6% 8% 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% - 9% 5% 6% 4% 7% 5% 5% 6% 14% 3% 6% 7% 5% 7% 7% 5% 1% 6% 2% 9%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 32Table 16
Q11 And still thinking of that Court of Appeal Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you feel you understand what the Court of Appeal Referendum is about?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
1. Do not understand it at all
1,079 1,079 - 394 334 351
33% 61% - 36% 30% 34%
2. Do not understand it particularly well
696 696 - 216 235 245
21% 39% - 20% 21% 24%
3. Understand it to some extent
996 - 996 323 401 272
30% - 67% 29% 36% 26%
4. Understand it quitewell
292 - 292 99 79 114
9% - 20% 9% 7% 11%
5. Understand it very well
202 - 202 67 78 57
6% - 14% 6% 7% 5%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 33Table 17
Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Would definitely vote 2,280 1,098 1,182 620 838 822 988 1,125 167 592 613 630 445 1,394 886 405 475 153 51 349 381 465 2,280 2,280 - - - 549 1,732
70% 70% 70% 59% 69% 82% 76% 66% 66% 73% 69% 68% 68% 70% 69% 82% 76% 84% 61% 77% 83% 48% 83% 100% - - - 48% 82%
Would probably vote 464 254 210 224 188 53 164 256 44 124 85 157 99 293 172 38 129 27 20 69 23 159 464 - 464 - - 278 186
14% 16% 12% 21% 15% 5% 13% 15% 18% 15% 10% 17% 15% 15% 13% 8% 20% 15% 24% 15% 5% 16% 17% - 100% - - 24% 9%
Might/might not vote 182 79 103 83 60 39 49 129 4 19 94 42 27 92 90 21 19 - - 7 27 107 - - - 182 - 117 64
6% 5% 6% 8% 5% 4% 4% 8% 2% 2% 11% 5% 4% 5% 7% 4% 3% - - 2% 6% 11% - - - 100% - 10% 3%
Would probably not vote
183 76 107 73 71 40 52 113 18 55 40 39 49 127 56 16 7 3 7 29 10 112 - - - - 183 109 74
6% 5% 6% 7% 6% 4% 4% 7% 7% 7% 5% 4% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 2% 8% 6% 2% 12% - - - - 55% 10% 3%
Would definitely not vote
151 70 81 48 56 46 49 84 18 17 53 50 31 73 78 12 - - 6 - 16 117 - - - - 151 94 56
5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 7% 2% 6% 5% 5% 4% 6% 2% - - 7% - 4% 12% - - - - 45% 8% 3%
Don’t know 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - - - - - - - 4 - - - - - 4 -
0% - 0% - 0% - - 0% - - - 0% - 0% - - - - - - - 0% - - - - - 0% -
Mean 4.39 4.42 4.37 4.24 4.39 4.56 4.53 4.30 4.29 4.51 4.32 4.39 4.35 4.42 4.35 4.64 4.71 4.80 4.25 4.62 4.62 3.77 4.83 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.55 3.94 4.64
Minimum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Maximum 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 5.00
Standard deviation 1.11 1.08 1.15 1.14 1.11 1.06 1.01 1.16 1.24 0.98 1.19 1.11 1.15 1.08 1.17 0.90 0.57 0.51 1.21 0.81 0.95 1.45 0.37 - - - 0.50 1.30 0.91
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 34Table 17
Q11 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Would definitely vote 2,280 1,118 1,163 786 798 697
70% 63% 78% 71% 71% 67%
Would probably vote 464 299 165 124 137 204
14% 17% 11% 11% 12% 20%
Might/might not vote 182 132 50 76 66 40
6% 7% 3% 7% 6% 4%
Would probably not vote
183 112 71 50 65 68
6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 7%
Would definitely not vote
151 110 41 64 61 26
5% 6% 3% 6% 5% 3%
Don’t know 4 4 - - - 4
0% 0% - - - 0%
Mean 4.39 4.24 4.57 4.38 4.37 4.43
Minimum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Maximum 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Standard deviation 1.11 1.21 0.96 1.16 1.16 1.01
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 35Table 18
Q12 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Fianna Fail 469 199 270 104 186 178 195 225 49 96 139 127 107 251 218 262 22 2 13 43 77 50 397 366 31 48 24 140 328
14% 13% 16% 10% 15% 18% 15% 13% 19% 12% 16% 14% 16% 13% 17% 53% 3% 1% 16% 9% 17% 5% 14% 16% 7% 26% 7% 12% 16%
Fine Gael 965 509 456 203 423 339 412 412 141 172 217 338 237 472 492 58 510 13 13 83 89 198 872 743 128 25 68 232 733
30% 32% 27% 19% 35% 34% 32% 24% 56% 21% 25% 37% 36% 24% 38% 12% 81% 7% 15% 18% 19% 21% 32% 33% 28% 14% 20% 20% 35%
Labour 357 222 135 85 132 140 156 198 3 127 125 52 54 271 86 31 21 125 6 25 53 98 330 298 32 2 25 89 268
11% 14% 8% 8% 11% 14% 12% 12% 1% 16% 14% 6% 8% 14% 7% 6% 3% 68% 7% 5% 11% 10% 12% 13% 7% 1% 7% 8% 13%
Green Party 49 10 39 7 32 10 8 27 14 28 3 3 14 32 17 10 - 1 20 - - 17 34 30 4 - 15 19 30
1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 6% 3% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% - 1% 24% - - 2% 1% 1% 1% - 5% 2% 1%
Sinn Fein 246 126 120 103 90 53 79 167 - 79 42 75 50 174 71 6 1 16 - 176 34 12 222 188 34 10 14 119 127
8% 8% 7% 10% 7% 5% 6% 10% - 10% 5% 8% 8% 9% 6% 1% 0% 9% - 39% 7% 1% 8% 8% 7% 5% 4% 10% 6%
Independent/Other 304 164 140 90 136 78 154 132 18 63 103 76 62 168 136 38 11 14 - 48 122 71 290 256 34 9 1 89 216
9% 10% 8% 9% 11% 8% 12% 8% 7% 8% 12% 8% 10% 8% 11% 8% 2% 8% - 11% 27% 7% 11% 11% 7% 5% 0% 8% 10%
Don’t know 467 128 339 196 129 142 178 279 10 108 143 122 95 308 159 44 28 7 - 42 43 304 382 301 81 44 41 218 249
14% 8% 20% 19% 11% 14% 14% 16% 4% 13% 16% 13% 15% 16% 12% 9% 4% 4% - 9% 10% 32% 14% 13% 17% 24% 12% 19% 12%
Did not vote 407 218 189 260 87 60 119 272 17 134 113 129 31 305 102 45 36 4 31 38 39 214 219 98 121 43 146 246 161
12% 14% 11% 25% 7% 6% 9% 16% 7% 17% 13% 14% 5% 15% 8% 9% 6% 2% 37% 8% 9% 22% 8% 4% 26% 24% 44% 21% 8%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 36Table 18
Q12 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Fianna Fail 469 263 205 162 156 151
14% 15% 14% 15% 14% 15%
Fine Gael 965 523 442 298 321 346
30% 29% 30% 27% 28% 33%
Labour 357 169 188 122 146 89
11% 10% 13% 11% 13% 9%
Green Party 49 22 27 31 15 3
1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0%
Sinn Fein 246 129 117 93 92 61
8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 6%
Independent/Other 304 147 157 101 105 98
9% 8% 11% 9% 9% 9%
Don’t know 467 241 226 163 149 156
14% 14% 15% 15% 13% 15%
Did not vote 407 279 128 131 143 134
12% 16% 9% 12% 13% 13%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 37Table 19
Q13 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?
All Irish VotersAll Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)
Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 2,390 1,230 1,159 592 1,000 798 1,004 1,161 225 566 630 671 524 1,369 1,021 405 566 171 52 375 375 446 2,144 1,881 263 94 148 688 1,702
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,390 1,230 1,159 592 1,000 798 1,004 1,161 225 566 630 671 524 1,369 1,021 405 566 171 52 375 375 446 2,144 1,881 263 94 148 688 1,702
UNWTD 694 355 339 145 303 246 335 316 43 195 177 190 132 468 226 123 159 56 14 103 105 134 627 560 67 23 43 178 516
Fianna Fail 469 199 270 104 186 178 195 225 49 96 139 127 107 251 218 262 22 2 13 43 77 50 397 366 31 48 24 140 328
20% 16% 23% 18% 19% 22% 19% 19% 22% 17% 22% 19% 20% 18% 21% 65% 4% 1% 25% 11% 21% 11% 19% 19% 12% 51% 16% 20% 19%
Fine Gael 965 509 456 203 423 339 412 412 141 172 217 338 237 472 492 58 510 13 13 83 89 198 872 743 128 25 68 232 733
40% 41% 39% 34% 42% 43% 41% 35% 63% 30% 34% 50% 45% 35% 48% 14% 90% 8% 25% 22% 24% 44% 41% 40% 49% 27% 46% 34% 43%
Labour 357 222 135 85 132 140 156 198 3 127 125 52 54 271 86 31 21 125 6 25 53 98 330 298 32 2 25 89 268
15% 18% 12% 14% 13% 18% 16% 17% 1% 22% 20% 8% 10% 20% 8% 8% 4% 73% 12% 7% 14% 22% 15% 16% 12% 2% 17% 13% 16%
Green Party 49 10 39 7 32 10 8 27 14 28 3 3 14 32 17 10 - 1 20 - - 17 34 30 4 - 15 19 30
2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 6% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% - 1% 39% - - 4% 2% 2% 1% - 10% 3% 2%
Sinn Fein 246 126 120 103 90 53 79 167 - 79 42 75 50 174 71 6 1 16 - 176 34 12 222 188 34 10 14 119 127
10% 10% 10% 17% 9% 7% 8% 14% - 14% 7% 11% 10% 13% 7% 2% 0% 9% - 47% 9% 3% 10% 10% 13% 10% 10% 17% 7%
Independent/Other 304 164 140 90 136 78 154 132 18 63 103 76 62 168 136 38 11 14 - 48 122 71 290 256 34 9 1 89 216
13% 13% 12% 15% 14% 10% 15% 11% 8% 11% 16% 11% 12% 12% 13% 9% 2% 8% - 13% 33% 16% 14% 14% 13% 10% 1% 13% 13%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 38Table 19
Q13 And finally, to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in last February’s General Election?
All Irish VotersAll Voters Excluding did not vote (Last Gen Election)
Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 2,390 1,254 1,136 807 835 749
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 2,390 1,254 1,136 807 835 749
UNWTD 694 360 334 224 258 212
Fianna Fail 469 263 205 162 156 151
20% 21% 18% 20% 19% 20%
Fine Gael 965 523 442 298 321 346
40% 42% 39% 37% 38% 46%
Labour 357 169 188 122 146 89
15% 13% 17% 15% 17% 12%
Green Party 49 22 27 31 15 3
2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 0%
Sinn Fein 246 129 117 93 92 61
10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 8%
Independent/Other 304 147 157 101 105 98
13% 12% 14% 12% 13% 13%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 39Table 20
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Male 1,577 1,577 - 521 596 459 614 814 149 448 425 422 282 1,043 534 234 360 102 46 262 226 348 1,352 1,098 254 79 146 461 1,115
48% 100% - 50% 49% 46% 47% 48% 59% 55% 48% 46% 43% 53% 42% 48% 57% 56% 54% 58% 49% 36% 49% 48% 55% 43% 44% 40% 53%
Female 1,688 - 1,688 527 621 540 687 898 103 360 460 500 368 940 748 259 269 81 38 193 232 615 1,392 1,182 210 103 188 691 997
52% - 100% 50% 51% 54% 53% 52% 41% 45% 52% 54% 57% 47% 58% 52% 43% 44% 46% 42% 51% 64% 51% 52% 45% 57% 56% 60% 47%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 40Table 20
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Male 1,577 775 802 540 568 469
48% 44% 54% 49% 50% 45%
Female 1,688 1,000 688 560 558 569
52% 56% 46% 51% 50% 55%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 41Table 21
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
18-34 1,048 521 527 1,048 - - 498 503 47 305 280 313 150 782 266 144 143 68 44 207 104 337 844 620 224 83 121 528 520
32% 33% 31% 100% - - 38% 29% 19% 38% 32% 34% 23% 39% 21% 29% 23% 37% 53% 46% 23% 35% 31% 27% 48% 46% 36% 46% 25%
35-54 1,217 596 621 - 1,217 - 505 575 137 270 316 362 269 646 571 187 255 63 35 139 145 394 1,026 838 188 60 127 374 843
37% 38% 37% - 100% - 39% 34% 55% 33% 36% 39% 41% 33% 45% 38% 41% 35% 42% 30% 32% 41% 37% 37% 40% 33% 38% 32% 40%
55+ 999 459 540 - - 999 298 634 67 232 289 247 231 554 445 163 231 51 5 109 208 233 874 822 53 39 86 250 750
31% 29% 32% - - 100% 23% 37% 27% 29% 33% 27% 36% 28% 35% 33% 37% 28% 6% 24% 45% 24% 32% 36% 11% 21% 26% 22% 35%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 42Table 21
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
18-34 1,048 560 488 303 369 376
32% 32% 33% 28% 33% 36%
35-54 1,217 706 511 394 439 384
37% 40% 34% 36% 39% 37%
55+ 999 509 490 403 319 278
31% 29% 33% 37% 28% 27%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 43Table 22
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
ABC1 1,301 614 687 498 505 298 1,301 - - 394 345 321 241 862 439 189 251 104 34 178 187 358 1,152 988 164 49 101 354 947
40% 39% 41% 47% 41% 30% 100% - - 49% 39% 35% 37% 43% 34% 38% 40% 57% 40% 39% 41% 37% 42% 43% 35% 27% 30% 31% 45%
C2DE 1,712 814 898 503 575 634 - 1,712 - 410 509 482 311 1,098 614 266 286 78 46 270 228 538 1,382 1,125 256 129 197 713 999
52% 52% 53% 48% 47% 63% - 100% - 51% 57% 52% 48% 55% 48% 54% 45% 43% 55% 59% 50% 56% 50% 49% 55% 71% 59% 62% 47%
F 252 149 103 47 137 67 - - 252 4 31 119 98 23 229 39 93 - 4 6 43 67 212 167 44 4 36 85 167
8% 9% 6% 5% 11% 7% - - 100% 1% 3% 13% 15% 1% 18% 8% 15% - 5% 1% 9% 7% 8% 7% 10% 2% 11% 7% 8%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 44Table 22
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
ABC1 1,301 721 580 418 468 415
40% 41% 39% 38% 42% 40%
C2DE 1,712 907 805 611 597 504
52% 51% 54% 56% 53% 49%
F 252 147 105 72 61 119
8% 8% 7% 7% 5% 11%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 45Table 23
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Dublin 808 448 360 305 270 232 394 410 4 808 - - - 808 - 115 134 70 51 140 105 193 716 592 124 19 73 261 547
25% 28% 21% 29% 22% 23% 30% 24% 2% 100% - - - 41% - 23% 21% 38% 61% 31% 23% 20% 26% 26% 27% 10% 22% 23% 26%
Lein-ster 885 425 460 280 316 289 345 509 31 - 885 - - 484 401 142 124 60 6 106 144 303 698 613 85 94 93 337 548
27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 29% 27% 30% 12% - 100% - - 24% 31% 29% 20% 33% 7% 23% 31% 31% 25% 27% 18% 52% 28% 29% 26%
Mun-ster 922 422 500 313 362 247 321 482 119 - - 922 - 503 418 147 224 31 25 109 95 290 787 630 157 42 88 315 607
28% 27% 30% 30% 30% 25% 25% 28% 47% - - 100% - 25% 33% 30% 36% 17% 29% 24% 21% 30% 29% 28% 34% 23% 26% 27% 29%
Conn/Ulster 650 282 368 150 269 231 241 311 98 - - - 650 187 463 89 147 21 2 100 113 178 544 445 99 27 79 240 410
20% 18% 22% 14% 22% 23% 19% 18% 39% - - - 100% 9% 36% 18% 23% 12% 3% 22% 25% 18% 20% 20% 21% 15% 24% 21% 19%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 46Table 23
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Dublin 808 363 445 182 447 179
25% 20% 30% 17% 40% 17%
Lein-ster 885 516 369 533 156 197
27% 29% 25% 48% 14% 19%
Mun-ster 922 517 404 101 398 423
28% 29% 27% 9% 35% 41%
Conn/Ulster 650 379 271 284 126 240
20% 21% 18% 26% 11% 23%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 47Table 24
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Urban 1,983 1,043 940 782 646 554 862 1,098 23 808 484 503 187 1,983 - 326 287 140 69 332 259 571 1,687 1,394 293 92 200 700 1,282
61% 66% 56% 75% 53% 55% 66% 64% 9% 100% 55% 55% 29% 100% - 66% 46% 77% 82% 73% 57% 59% 61% 61% 63% 51% 60% 61% 61%
Rural 1,282 534 748 266 571 445 439 614 229 - 401 418 463 - 1,282 167 342 43 15 123 199 393 1,058 886 172 90 134 452 830
39% 34% 44% 25% 47% 45% 34% 36% 91% - 45% 45% 71% - 100% 34% 54% 23% 18% 27% 43% 41% 39% 39% 37% 49% 40% 39% 39%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 48Table 24
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Urban 1,983 1,003 979 589 836 557
61% 57% 66% 54% 74% 54%
Rural 1,282 771 510 511 290 481
39% 43% 34% 46% 26% 46%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 49Table 25
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Fianna Fail 493 234 259 144 187 163 189 266 39 115 142 147 89 326 167 493 - - - - - - 444 405 38 21 28 148 345
15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 16% 14% 16% 15% 14% 16% 16% 14% 16% 13% 100% - - - - - - 16% 18% 8% 12% 8% 13% 16%
Fine Gael 629 360 269 143 255 231 251 286 93 134 124 224 147 287 342 - 629 - - - - - 604 475 129 19 7 163 466
19% 23% 16% 14% 21% 23% 19% 17% 37% 17% 14% 24% 23% 14% 27% - 100% - - - - - 22% 21% 28% 10% 2% 14% 22%
Labour 183 102 81 68 63 51 104 78 - 70 60 31 21 140 43 - - 183 - - - - 180 153 27 - 3 59 124
6% 6% 5% 7% 5% 5% 8% 5% - 9% 7% 3% 3% 7% 3% - - 100% - - - - 7% 7% 6% - 1% 5% 6%
Green Party 84 46 38 44 35 5 34 46 4 51 6 25 2 69 15 - - - 84 - - - 72 51 20 - 12 34 50
3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 0% 3% 3% 2% 6% 1% 3% 0% 3% 1% - - - 100% - - - 3% 2% 4% - 4% 3% 2%
Sinn Fein 455 262 193 207 139 109 178 270 6 140 106 109 100 332 123 - - - - 455 - - 418 349 69 7 29 204 251
14% 17% 11% 20% 11% 11% 14% 16% 2% 17% 12% 12% 15% 17% 10% - - - - 100% - - 15% 15% 15% 4% 9% 18% 12%
Independent/Others 458 226 232 104 145 208 187 228 43 105 144 95 113 259 199 - - - - - 458 - 404 381 23 27 26 110 348
14% 14% 14% 10% 12% 21% 14% 13% 17% 13% 16% 10% 17% 13% 16% - - - - - 100% - 15% 17% 5% 15% 8% 10% 16%
Would not/Don't Know
963 348 615 337 394 233 358 538 67 193 303 290 178 571 393 - - - - - - 963 624 465 159 107 229 434 529
30% 22% 36% 32% 32% 23% 28% 31% 27% 24% 34% 31% 27% 29% 31% - - - - - - 100% 23% 20% 34% 59% 69% 38% 25%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 50Table 25
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Fianna Fail 493 247 246 171 206 117
15% 14% 17% 16% 18% 11%
Fine Gael 629 327 302 197 214 218
19% 18% 20% 18% 19% 21%
Labour 183 83 99 63 54 66
6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 6%
Green Party 84 50 34 25 35 24
3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2%
Sinn Fein 455 246 209 123 168 164
14% 14% 14% 11% 15% 16%
Independent/Others 458 248 209 190 134 134
14% 14% 14% 17% 12% 13%
Would not/Don't Know
963 573 390 332 316 316
30% 32% 26% 30% 28% 30%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 51Table 26
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Would vote 2,745 1,352 1,392 844 1,026 874 1,152 1,382 212 716 698 787 544 1,687 1,058 444 604 180 72 418 404 624 2,745 2,280 464 - - 827 1,918
84% 86% 83% 81% 85% 87% 89% 81% 84% 89% 79% 86% 84% 85% 83% 90% 96% 98% 85% 92% 88% 65% 100% 100% 100% - - 72% 91%
Might/might not 182 79 103 83 60 39 49 129 4 19 94 42 27 92 90 21 19 - - 7 27 107 - - - 182 - 117 64
6% 5% 6% 8% 5% 4% 4% 8% 2% 2% 11% 5% 4% 5% 7% 4% 3% - - 2% 6% 11% - - - 100% - 10% 3%
Would not Vote 334 146 188 121 127 86 101 197 36 73 93 88 79 200 134 28 7 3 12 29 26 229 - - - - 334 204 130
10% 9% 11% 12% 10% 9% 8% 12% 14% 9% 11% 10% 12% 10% 10% 6% 1% 2% 15% 6% 6% 24% - - - - 100% 18% 6%
Mean 4.39 4.42 4.37 4.24 4.39 4.56 4.53 4.30 4.29 4.51 4.32 4.39 4.35 4.42 4.35 4.64 4.71 4.80 4.25 4.62 4.62 3.77 4.83 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.55 3.94 4.64
Minimum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Maximum 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 5.00
Standard deviation 1.11 1.08 1.15 1.14 1.11 1.06 1.01 1.16 1.24 0.98 1.19 1.11 1.15 1.08 1.17 0.90 0.57 0.51 1.21 0.81 0.95 1.45 0.37 - - - 0.50 1.30 0.91
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 52Table 26
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Would vote 2,745 1,417 1,328 909 935 900
84% 80% 89% 83% 83% 87%
Might/might not 182 132 50 76 66 40
6% 7% 3% 7% 6% 4%
Would not Vote 334 222 111 114 126 94
10% 13% 7% 10% 11% 9%
Mean 4.39 4.24 4.57 4.38 4.37 4.43
Minimum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Maximum 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Standard deviation 1.11 1.21 0.96 1.16 1.16 1.01
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 53Table 27
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,577 1,688 1,048 1,217 999 1,301 1,712 252 808 885 922 650 1,983 1,282 493 629 183 84 455 458 963 2,745 2,280 464 182 334 1,152 2,112
UNWTD 934 451 483 267 366 301 432 452 50 261 249 260 164 640 294 147 170 59 25 128 126 279 793 674 119 46 94 297 637
Single 980 521 459 636 234 109 372 516 92 263 225 314 177 696 284 177 162 73 40 160 112 255 805 599 207 60 114 404 576
30% 33% 27% 61% 19% 11% 29% 30% 36% 33% 25% 34% 27% 35% 22% 36% 26% 40% 48% 35% 25% 26% 29% 26% 44% 33% 34% 35% 27%
Married 1,655 766 889 194 779 683 726 787 142 362 468 423 402 910 745 238 375 73 29 168 265 507 1,435 1,267 168 81 135 486 1,169
51% 49% 53% 18% 64% 68% 56% 46% 56% 45% 53% 46% 62% 46% 58% 48% 60% 40% 35% 37% 58% 53% 52% 56% 36% 44% 40% 42% 55%
Co-habiting 295 167 128 195 94 6 110 166 18 106 78 95 16 194 101 13 49 15 14 76 22 104 242 181 61 11 42 162 133
9% 11% 8% 19% 8% 1% 8% 10% 7% 13% 9% 10% 2% 10% 8% 3% 8% 8% 17% 17% 5% 11% 9% 8% 13% 6% 12% 14% 6%
Widowed 142 23 119 - 18 124 12 130 - 25 60 40 17 62 80 31 26 5 - 23 29 28 111 105 6 19 12 54 88
4% 1% 7% - 1% 12% 1% 8% - 3% 7% 4% 3% 3% 6% 6% 4% 3% - 5% 6% 3% 4% 5% 1% 10% 4% 5% 4%
Divorced/seperated 175 83 93 16 86 73 71 105 - 49 53 39 35 104 71 34 12 16 - 28 31 55 137 114 23 10 28 47 128
5% 5% 5% 2% 7% 7% 5% 6% - 6% 6% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 2% 9% - 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 8% 4% 6%
Refused 17 17 - 8 6 4 9 8 - 4 - 10 3 17 - - 4 - - - - 14 14 14 - - 3 - 17
1% 1% - 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% - 0% - 1% 1% 1% - - 1% - - - - 1% 1% 1% - - 1% - 1%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 54Table 27
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Voters Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,264 1,775 1,490 1,100 1,126 1,038
UNWTD 934 502 432 308 342 284
Single 980 462 518 296 324 359
30% 26% 35% 27% 29% 35%
Married 1,655 927 728 617 560 478
51% 52% 49% 56% 50% 46%
Co-habiting 295 179 116 49 134 112
9% 10% 8% 4% 12% 11%
Widowed 142 99 43 69 39 34
4% 6% 3% 6% 3% 3%
Divorced/seperated 175 96 80 69 55 51
5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Refused 17 12 5 - 14 3
1% 1% 0% - 1% 0%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 55Table 28
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
Male 1,685 1,685 - 598 628 459 672 864 149 494 447 439 306 1,117 569 253 370 111 46 265 234 406 1,403 1,132 271 103 178 504 1,181
49% 100% - 51% 49% 46% 49% 48% 58% 57% 49% 46% 44% 53% 43% 49% 57% 57% 50% 57% 50% 38% 50% 48% 56% 50% 45% 40% 54%
Female 1,755 - 1,755 573 642 540 707 941 107 378 473 509 394 987 768 259 274 83 46 199 236 657 1,418 1,204 214 103 217 744 1,011
51% - 100% 49% 51% 54% 51% 52% 42% 43% 51% 54% 56% 47% 57% 51% 43% 43% 50% 43% 50% 62% 50% 52% 44% 50% 55% 60% 46%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 56Table 28
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
Male 1,685 819 866 563 626 496
49% 44% 55% 49% 52% 46%
Female 1,755 1,041 714 590 583 582
51% 56% 45% 51% 48% 54%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 57Table 29
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
18-34 1,171 598 573 1,171 - - 544 580 47 354 311 323 184 873 298 160 158 68 52 214 111 408 892 652 240 99 173 607 565
34% 36% 33% 100% - - 39% 32% 19% 41% 34% 34% 26% 42% 22% 31% 25% 35% 57% 46% 24% 38% 32% 28% 49% 48% 44% 49% 26%
35-54 1,269 628 642 - 1,269 - 537 591 141 286 320 378 285 677 593 189 255 74 35 141 151 423 1,055 862 193 69 136 392 878
37% 37% 37% - 100% - 39% 33% 55% 33% 35% 40% 41% 32% 44% 37% 40% 38% 38% 30% 32% 40% 37% 37% 40% 33% 34% 31% 40%
55+ 999 459 540 - - 999 298 634 67 232 289 247 231 554 445 163 231 51 5 109 208 233 874 822 53 39 86 250 750
29% 27% 31% - - 100% 22% 35% 26% 27% 31% 26% 33% 26% 33% 32% 36% 26% 5% 23% 44% 22% 31% 35% 11% 19% 22% 20% 34%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 58Table 29
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
18-34 1,171 628 543 352 422 398
34% 34% 34% 31% 35% 37%
35-54 1,269 723 546 398 469 402
37% 39% 35% 35% 39% 37%
55+ 999 509 490 403 319 278
29% 27% 31% 35% 26% 26%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 59Table 30
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
ABC1 1,380 672 707 544 537 298 1,380 - - 423 356 331 270 917 463 197 261 110 41 185 191 394 1,194 1,018 176 66 118 385 994
40% 40% 40% 46% 42% 30% 100% - - 48% 39% 35% 39% 44% 35% 39% 41% 57% 45% 40% 41% 37% 42% 44% 36% 32% 30% 31% 45%
C2DE 1,805 864 941 580 591 634 - 1,805 - 445 533 494 332 1,164 641 276 291 84 46 273 236 599 1,412 1,147 265 136 241 778 1,027
52% 51% 54% 49% 47% 63% - 100% - 51% 58% 52% 48% 55% 48% 54% 45% 43% 50% 59% 50% 56% 50% 49% 55% 66% 61% 62% 47%
F 256 149 107 47 141 67 - - 256 4 31 123 98 23 233 39 93 - 4 6 43 71 215 171 44 4 36 85 171
7% 9% 6% 4% 11% 7% - - 100% 0% 3% 13% 14% 1% 17% 8% 14% - 5% 1% 9% 7% 8% 7% 9% 2% 9% 7% 8%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 60Table 30
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
ABC1 1,380 746 634 443 515 422
40% 40% 40% 38% 43% 39%
C2DE 1,805 968 837 638 633 533
52% 52% 53% 55% 52% 49%
F 256 147 109 72 61 123
7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 11%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 61Table 31
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
Dublin 872 494 378 354 286 232 423 445 4 872 - - - 872 - 125 142 77 51 143 111 223 757 617 139 27 88 293 579
25% 29% 22% 30% 23% 23% 31% 25% 2% 100% - - - 41% - 24% 22% 40% 56% 31% 24% 21% 27% 26% 29% 13% 22% 23% 26%
Lein-ster 920 447 473 311 320 289 356 533 31 - 920 - - 504 416 145 127 60 6 113 146 323 710 620 90 94 114 362 558
27% 27% 27% 27% 25% 29% 26% 30% 12% - 100% - - 24% 31% 28% 20% 31% 7% 24% 31% 30% 25% 27% 19% 46% 29% 29% 25%
Mun-ster 948 439 509 323 378 247 331 494 123 - - 948 - 515 433 147 224 31 25 109 97 314 793 635 157 50 96 325 623
28% 26% 29% 28% 30% 25% 24% 27% 48% - - 100% - 24% 32% 29% 35% 16% 27% 23% 21% 30% 28% 27% 32% 24% 24% 26% 28%
Conn/Ulster 700 306 394 184 285 231 270 332 98 - - - 700 212 488 94 152 25 10 100 116 204 562 463 99 35 96 269 431
20% 18% 22% 16% 22% 23% 20% 18% 38% - - - 100% 10% 37% 18% 24% 13% 11% 22% 25% 19% 20% 20% 20% 17% 24% 22% 20%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 62Table 31
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
Dublin 872 398 474 199 494 179
25% 21% 30% 17% 41% 17%
Lein-ster 920 535 385 551 161 208
27% 29% 24% 48% 13% 19%
Mun-ster 948 530 418 101 408 439
28% 29% 26% 9% 34% 41%
Conn/Ulster 700 396 303 302 147 251
20% 21% 19% 26% 12% 23%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 63Table 32
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
Urban 2,104 1,117 987 873 677 554 917 1,164 23 872 504 515 212 2,104 - 339 303 151 69 338 269 636 1,743 1,433 310 109 240 760 1,344
61% 66% 56% 75% 53% 55% 66% 65% 9% 100% 55% 54% 30% 100% - 66% 47% 78% 76% 73% 57% 60% 62% 61% 64% 53% 61% 61% 61%
Rural 1,336 569 768 298 593 445 463 641 233 - 416 433 488 - 1,336 172 342 43 22 127 202 428 1,079 903 175 97 155 488 849
39% 34% 44% 25% 47% 45% 34% 35% 91% - 45% 46% 70% - 100% 34% 53% 22% 24% 27% 43% 40% 38% 39% 36% 47% 39% 39% 39%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 64Table 32
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
Urban 2,104 1,070 1,034 628 910 566
61% 57% 65% 54% 75% 53%
Rural 1,336 791 545 525 299 512
39% 43% 35% 46% 25% 47%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 65Table 33
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
Fianna Fail 511 253 259 160 189 163 197 276 39 125 145 147 94 339 172 511 - - - - - - 452 412 40 31 28 158 353
15% 15% 15% 14% 15% 16% 14% 15% 15% 14% 16% 16% 13% 16% 13% 100% - - - - - - 16% 18% 8% 15% 7% 13% 16%
Fine Gael 645 370 274 158 255 231 261 291 93 142 127 224 152 303 342 - 645 - - - - - 620 483 136 19 7 166 479
19% 22% 16% 14% 20% 23% 19% 16% 36% 16% 14% 24% 22% 14% 26% - 100% - - - - - 22% 21% 28% 9% 2% 13% 22%
Labour 194 111 83 68 74 51 110 84 - 77 60 31 25 151 43 - - 194 - - - - 187 159 29 4 3 61 133
6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% 8% 5% - 9% 7% 3% 4% 7% 3% - - 100% - - - - 7% 7% 6% 2% 1% 5% 6%
Green Party 91 46 46 52 35 5 41 46 4 51 6 25 10 69 22 - - - 91 - - - 79 59 20 - 12 41 50
3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 0% 3% 3% 2% 6% 1% 3% 1% 3% 2% - - - 100% - - - 3% 3% 4% - 3% 3% 2%
Sinn Fein 465 265 199 214 141 109 185 273 6 143 113 109 100 338 127 - - - - 465 - - 425 352 72 7 33 214 251
14% 16% 11% 18% 11% 11% 13% 15% 2% 16% 12% 11% 14% 16% 9% - - - - 100% - - 15% 15% 15% 4% 8% 17% 11%
Independent/Others 470 234 236 111 151 208 191 236 43 111 146 97 116 269 202 - - - - - 470 - 417 394 23 27 26 113 357
14% 14% 13% 9% 12% 21% 14% 13% 17% 13% 16% 10% 17% 13% 15% - - - - - 100% - 15% 17% 5% 13% 7% 9% 16%
Would not/Don't Know
1,064 406 657 408 423 233 394 599 71 223 323 314 204 636 428 - - - - - - 1,064 642 477 165 118 287 494 570
31% 24% 37% 35% 33% 23% 29% 33% 28% 26% 35% 33% 29% 30% 32% - - - - - - 100% 23% 20% 34% 57% 73% 40% 26%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 66Table 33
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
Fianna Fail 511 262 249 173 217 122
15% 14% 16% 15% 18% 11%
Fine Gael 645 330 315 203 224 218
19% 18% 20% 18% 19% 20%
Labour 194 91 103 63 61 70
6% 5% 7% 5% 5% 6%
Green Party 91 50 41 32 35 24
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Sinn Fein 465 253 212 126 171 167
14% 14% 13% 11% 14% 15%
Independent/Others 470 257 214 198 136 136
14% 14% 14% 17% 11% 13%
Would not/Don't Know
1,064 618 445 358 364 342
31% 33% 28% 31% 30% 32%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 67Table 34
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
Would vote 2,821 1,403 1,418 892 1,055 874 1,194 1,412 215 757 710 793 562 1,743 1,079 452 620 187 79 425 417 642 2,821 2,336 485 - - 856 1,965
82% 83% 82% 77% 84% 87% 87% 79% 84% 87% 77% 84% 81% 83% 81% 88% 96% 97% 87% 91% 89% 61% 100% 100% 100% - - 70% 90%
Might/might not 206 103 103 99 69 39 66 136 4 27 94 50 35 109 97 31 19 4 - 7 27 118 - - - 206 - 133 73
6% 6% 6% 8% 5% 4% 5% 8% 2% 3% 10% 5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 3% 2% - 2% 6% 11% - - - 100% - 11% 3%
Would not Vote 395 178 217 173 136 86 118 241 36 88 114 96 96 240 155 28 7 3 12 33 26 287 - - - - 395 241 154
12% 11% 12% 15% 11% 9% 9% 13% 14% 10% 12% 10% 14% 11% 12% 6% 1% 2% 13% 7% 5% 27% - - - - 100% 20% 7%
Mean 4.34 4.35 4.33 4.12 4.36 4.56 4.47 4.24 4.30 4.45 4.26 4.36 4.28 4.36 4.31 4.61 4.70 4.77 4.31 4.60 4.63 3.66 4.83 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.56 3.87 4.60
Minimum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Maximum 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 5.00 5.00
Standard deviation 1.16 1.14 1.18 1.23 1.14 1.06 1.06 1.21 1.23 1.03 1.23 1.14 1.23 1.13 1.20 0.91 0.57 0.55 1.18 0.83 0.94 1.49 0.38 -1.#IND
- - 0.50 1.33 0.96
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 68Table 34
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
Would vote 2,821 1,444 1,377 941 971 909
82% 78% 87% 82% 81% 85%
Might/might not 206 144 62 76 79 51
6% 8% 4% 7% 7% 5%
Would not Vote 395 255 140 134 153 108
12% 14% 9% 12% 13% 10%
Mean 4.34 4.20 4.51 4.34 4.29 4.39
Minimum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Maximum 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Standard deviation 1.16 1.24 1.03 1.19 1.22 1.04
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 69Table 35
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Gender Age Class Region Area Party Support Likelihood Seanad Referendum Understandi
ng
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin
Lein-ster
Mun-ster
Conn/
Ulster
Urban
Rural Fianna Fail
Fine Gael
Lab-our
Green
Party
Sinn Fein
Indep/
Others
Would not/DK
Would vote
Would
definitely vote
Would
probably vote
Might/
mightnot
Would not Vote
Do Not Understand
Understand
Total 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,685 1,755 1,171 1,269 999 1,380 1,805 256 872 920 948 700 2,104 1,336 511 645 194 91 465 470 1,064 2,821 2,336 485 206 395 1,248 2,192
UNWTD 978 477 501 296 381 301 453 474 51 277 260 267 174 672 306 152 174 62 26 131 130 303 814 688 126 52 108 321 657
Single 1,080 581 500 728 243 109 411 578 92 300 245 324 211 759 322 193 175 73 48 170 119 303 845 626 220 76 147 477 604
31% 34% 28% 62% 19% 11% 30% 32% 36% 34% 27% 34% 30% 36% 24% 38% 27% 38% 53% 37% 25% 28% 30% 27% 45% 37% 37% 38% 28%
Married 1,694 790 905 208 803 683 753 796 146 372 477 434 411 940 754 240 375 77 29 168 271 534 1,459 1,287 171 85 146 494 1,200
49% 47% 52% 18% 63% 68% 55% 44% 57% 43% 52% 46% 59% 45% 56% 47% 58% 40% 32% 36% 58% 50% 52% 55% 35% 41% 37% 40% 55%
Co-habiting 321 183 139 208 108 6 124 179 18 114 85 100 22 213 108 13 53 17 14 76 22 126 247 184 63 16 58 173 149
9% 11% 8% 18% 8% 1% 9% 10% 7% 13% 9% 11% 3% 10% 8% 3% 8% 9% 15% 16% 5% 12% 9% 8% 13% 8% 15% 14% 7%
Widowed 142 23 119 - 18 124 12 130 - 25 60 40 17 62 80 31 26 5 - 23 29 28 111 105 6 19 12 54 88
4% 1% 7% - 1% 12% 1% 7% - 3% 7% 4% 2% 3% 6% 6% 4% 3% - 5% 6% 3% 4% 4% 1% 9% 3% 4% 4%
Divorced/seperated 184 92 93 19 92 73 71 113 - 58 53 39 35 113 71 34 12 22 - 28 31 58 146 120 26 10 28 50 134
5% 5% 5% 2% 7% 7% 5% 6% - 7% 6% 4% 5% 5% 5% 7% 2% 11% - 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 7% 4% 6%
Refused 17 17 - 8 6 4 9 8 - 4 - 10 3 17 - - 4 - - - - 14 14 14 - - 3 - 17
1% 1% - 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% - 0% - 1% 0% 1% - - 1% - - - - 1% 0% 1% - - 1% - 1%
August TeleBar 2012 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Opinion Poll
J4974
Page 70Table 35
Analysis of Sample
All Irish Adults 18+ Total Court of Appeal
Referendum Understandi
ng
Constituency
Do Not Understand
Understand
5 Seats
4 Seats
3 Seats
Total 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
WTD Base: 3,440 1,860 1,580 1,153 1,209 1,078
UNWTD 978 523 455 322 362 294
Single 1,080 517 564 332 362 387
31% 28% 36% 29% 30% 36%
Married 1,694 941 753 631 573 490
49% 51% 48% 55% 47% 45%
Co-habiting 321 190 131 52 157 112
9% 10% 8% 5% 13% 10%
Widowed 142 99 43 69 39 34
4% 5% 3% 6% 3% 3%
Divorced/seperated 184 101 83 69 64 51
5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Refused 17 12 5 - 14 3
1% 1% 0% - 1% 0%
1
The Questionnaire
BEHAVIOUR & ATTITUDES POLL QUESTIONNAIRE – SEPTEMBER 2013
Good Morning/afternoon/evening my name is ………………… (Name) and I am calling from
Behaviour and Attitudes, the independent market research company based in Dublin.
We are currently conducting a study on a number of issues. The study will take less than 10
minutes to complete.
The interview will be conducted in accordance with Market Research Society guidelines - all
results will be shown in aggregate form and for quality control purposes this call may be
monitored by a supervisor.
ASK ALL ADULTS 18YRS+
Q.1 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the
Government is running the country?
Satisfied 1
Dissatisfied 2
No opinion 3
Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Kenny is doing his job
as Taoiseach?
Satisfied 1
Dissatisfied 2
No opinion 3
Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Gilmore is doing his
job as Tanaiste?
Satisfied 1
Dissatisfied 2
No opinion 3
Q.4 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Martin is doing his job
as leader of Fianna Fail?
Satisfied 1
Dissatisfied 2
No opinion 3
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Q.5 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Adams is doing his job
as leader of Sinn Fein?
Satisfied 1
Dissatisfied 2
No opinion 3
Q.6 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr. Ryan is doing his job
as leader of The Green Party?
Satisfied 1
Dissatisfied 2
No opinion 3
Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate
would you give your first preference vote? DO NOT READ OUT
Fianna Fail 1
Fine Gael 2
Labour Party 3
Green Party 4
Workers Party 5
Sinn Fein 6
Independent 7
Other specify _________________ 8
Don’t know 9
Would not vote 10
Q.8 As you are probably aware, on October 4th next a referendum will be held in relation
to the abolition of Seanad Eireann – otherwise known as the Seanad. People will be
asked to vote either in favour of or against abolishing the Seanad. Are you yourself
likely to vote yes in favour of the abolition of the Seanad, or no against the abolition
of the Seanad?
Will vote yes in favour of abolishing the Seanad 1
Will vote no against abolishing the Seanad 2
Don’t know 3
Will not vote 4
Q.9 And thinking of the forthcoming Seanad Eireann Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5
where 5 is you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how
well do you feel you understand what the Seanad Eireann referendum is about? PROBE
TO APPROPRIATE CODE
Understand it
very well
Understand it
quite well
Understand it to
some extent
Do not
understand it
particularly well
Do not
understand it at
all
5 4 3 2 1
Q.10 On October 4th next, a Court of Appeal Referendum will also be held in which people
will be asked to vote on whether or not to allow for:
o The establishment of a Court of Appeal, and o A change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions in cases where it is asked
to decide whether or not a law is constitutional – the ‘one judgement ‘ rule.
People will be asked to vote yes or no to this entire proposal. Are you likely to vote yes, to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions, or no, not to allow for the establishment of a Court of Appeal and a change in how the Supreme Court issues decisions?
Q.11 And still thinking of that Court of Appeal Referendum. On a scale of 1 to 5 where 5 is
you understand it very well and 1 is you do not understand it at all, how well do you
feel you understand what the Court of Appeal Referendum is about? PROBE TO
APPROPRIATE CODE
Understand it
very well
Understand it
quite well
Understand it to
some extent
Do not
understand it
particularly well
Do not
understand it at
all
5 4 3 2 1
Will vote yes, to allow for these changes 1
Will vote no, not to allow for these changes 2
Don’t know 3
Will not vote 4
Q.12 How likely would you be to vote if there was a General Election tomorrow? PROBE TO APPROPRIATE CODE
Would definitely vote 1
Would probably vote 2
Might/might not vote 3
Would probably not vote 4
Would definitely not vote 5
Don’t know 6
Q.13 And to which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in
the last General Election? DO NOT READ OUT
Q.14 Are you eligible to vote in Irish General Elections, or not?
Yes, eligible 1
No – not eligible 2
Don’t know 3
Q.15 And are you an Irish citizen, or not?
Yes 1
No 2
Don’t know 3
Fianna Fail 1
Fine Gael 2
Labour 3
Green Party 4
Workers Party 5
Sinn Fein 6
Independent 7
Other specify _________________ 8
Don’t know 9
Did not vote 10