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WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION

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STATISTICS ON GLOBALIZATION

2001

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Statistics on Globalisation

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

1. Economic Growtha. Worldb. Developed economiesc. Developing economies

2. Tradea. Generalb. Trade developments in 2001c. Highlights of trade developments in 2000d. Long-term trends in international tradee. Trade and developing countriesf. Estimated benefits of a new round

3. Foreign Direct Investmenta. Generalb. Developed economiesc. Developing economiesd. Economies in transition

4. Capital Flowsa. Developing economies – World Bankb. Emerging markets – IMF

5. Labour Markets

II. SOCIAL INDICATORS

A. Population

1. General2. Gender disparities3. Children

a. Child mortalityb. Children malnutrition

4. Migration5. Urbanisation

B. Human development

1. General2. Education3. Medical, Health and Sanitation

a. Life expectancyb. Healthc. HIV/AIDSd. Sanitatione. Access to food and fresh water

C. Poverty and IncomeD. Labour and Employment

References

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I. ECONOMIC INDICATORS

1. Economic Growth

a. World

World output growth (with PPP-based weights) increased from 3.6% in 1999 to 4.7% in 2000. weo2

The number of countries with rising per capita output increased in 1999 from 102 out of the sample of 145 to 123 in 2000. wess

The number of countries with rising per capita output was at 74 in 1992, and came up to a maximum of 122 in 1996 and 1997, out of a total of 145 countries. wess

Whereas GDP per person rose by 1.4% in the 1990s in non-globalizing developing countries, it rose by 5.1% a year in globalizing ones. (Source: World Bank study by David Dollar and Aart Kray, pg 2)

Forecasts

IMF projects that world output will grow by 2.6% in 2001, and up to 3.5% in 2002. weo2

The World Bank projects that global GDP growth will be 1.3% in 2001, 1.6% in 2002 and 3.9% in 2003. gep2

The expansion of world trade is also expected to decelerate. The WTO predicts a deceleration of world merchandise trade growth from 12% in 2000 to 2% in 2001. wto2

The World Bank predicts a deceleration of world trade from 13.3% in 2000 to 1% in 2001. A recovery is foreseen to 4% in 2002 and to 10.2% in 2003. gep2

b. Developed Economies

From 3.4% in 2000, world output for the high-income economies is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2001. GDP growth is projected to increase by 1.1% in 2002 and 3.5% in 2003. gep2

US

The US GDP growth was 4.1% in 2000 and is expected to slowdown to 1.1% in 2001. gep2

It is projected that the GDP growth will be 1% in 2002, but recover in 2003 to 3.9%. gep2

Japan

Economic growth in Japan was 1.5% in 2000. In 2001, the economy is expected to contract slightly (-0.8%). gep2

It is forecasted that Japan's economy will stagnate in 2002 but expand by 2.4% in 2003. gep2

Europe

The EU recorded an output growth of 2.7% in 1999 and 3.4% in 2000. weo2

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It is projected that the EU will have an output expansion of 1.8% in 2001 and 2.2% in 2002. weo2

GDP growth in the Euro Area was 3.5% in 2000 and is expected to slowdown to 1.5% in 2001. gep2

Projected GDP growth in the Euro Area for 2002 and 2003 is 1.3% and 3.6%, respectively. gep2

c. Developing Economies

The economies of many developing countries performed particularly well in 2000: 73 of 95 developing countries regularly monitored by the UN secretariat recorded rises in per capita GDP, compared with 58 in 1999, and there were dramatic improvements in Latin America and Western Asia. wess-pr

In 2001, 31 developing countries, as compared with 23 in 1999, achieved at least 3% growth in per capita GDP. Some sub-Saharan least developed did even better. pr

GDP growth in the developing countries in excess of 5% in 2000 was the strongest in a decade. wto2

For the 1990-2000 period, economic growth in the developing country aggregate was on average 4.5%. For the world as a whole, growth was 2.8% in the 1990s. gep2

Sub-Saharan Africa's estimated GDP growth was 3% in 2000 and is expected to decelerate slightly to 2.7% in 2001. gep2

The Middle East and North Africa region recorded a 3.9% GDP growth in 2000. In 2001, growth is expected to be 3.4%. gep2

GDP growth in Latin America (incl. the Caribbean) was 3.8% in 2000 and will be, with 0.9%, sharply lower in 2001. gep2

East Asia and the Pacific recorded, with 7.5%, the highest GDP growth of all regions in 2000. its economic growth is expected to be about 4.6% in 2001. gep2

South Asia's GDP growth was 4.9% in 2000 and is expected to be only slightly lower in 2001 (4.5%). gep2

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2. Trade

a. General

World merchandise trade is expected to grow in volume terms by only 2% in 2001 – compared with 12% in 2000 – and even this growth is not assured given the present great uncertainties about economic and trade developments. wto2

Global trade and output growth in 2000 were the strongest in more than a decade, with all regions benefitting from the stronger world economy. wto2

While all regions reported faster nominal trade growth, exports and imports of developing countries expanded by more than 20% lifting their share in world merchandise trade to the highest level in the last 50 years. Various factors contributed to this outcome, including the economic recovery in Latin America and East Asia, the sharp rise of oil prices and stronger demand in developed countries. wto-pr

The year 2000 witnessed not only outstandingly high global trade and output growth of 12% and 4% respectively, but also an exceptionally large excess of trade growth over output growth. wto-pr.

b. Trade developments in 2001

For the world as a whole, the value of merchandise trade was up only 1% in the first half, compared with a 12.5% gain for 2000 as a whole. wto2

Growth in the value of North America's trade decelerated throughout the first six months of 2001, and in the second quarter both exports and imports were below their year-earlier levels.

Western Europe's merchandise exports and imports values are estimated to have increased by only 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively (measured in euros, the increases are 9.5% and 8.5%, respectively). wto2

Asia's merchandise exports decreased by nearly 4% in the first half. Exports from Japan decreased by 11%. Exports from China and India increased by 9.2% and 7.7%, respectively. wto2

Merchandise imports of Asia stagnated in the first half in value terms. wto2

c. Highlights of trade developments in 2000

The value of world merchandise exports was up 12.5% in 2000, triple the 1999 growth rate, to $6.2 trillion. World exports of commercial services rose 6% in 2000 reaching $1.4 trillion, with transportation services showing the strongest growth.

The product categories in merchandise trade with the highest growth were fuels (up 50% to $630 billion) and office and telecom equipment (up 20% to $940 billion). Exports of agricultural products recorded the weakest growth of all major product categories (up 2% to $560 billion).

High growth in the information technology sector was particularly beneficial for North America and Asia, while the rise in world energy demand and the recovery of oil prices boosted the economies of the oil exporting countries.

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The value of North American merchandise exports rose by 12.5%, more than twice as fast as in the preceeding year and faster than the 10% increase in exports of commercial services from the region.

Western Europe recorded its fastest trade and output growth – on a volume basis – in the past decade, as merchandise exports and imports rose by about 10%, twice as fast as in the preceding year.

Latin America's sharp rise in output in 2000 was mainly due to the recovery in Brazil and strong GDP growth in Mexico. The latter's real trade growth was three to four times higher than that of the rest of Latin America last year.

Asia and the transition economies recorded both the highest export growth among the major regions and the largest increase in imports, highlighting once again that dynamic exporters are dynamic importers. Despite the moderate acceleration of Asia's economic growth in 2000, its trade volume surged by more than 15%, about twice the average growth rate for the 1990s.

The dollar value of Africa's merchandise exports rose by more than one-quarter last year, lifting Africa's share to 2.3% of world merchandise exports.

The 49 least-developed countries (LDCs) as a group shared in the dynamic global output and trade expansion, as their GDP and trade growth exceeded the global average. The US dollar value of their merchandise exports rose by 28% although with highly divergent developments by country.

These differences in the export performance among the LDCs can be largely attributed to their product structure. Oil-exporting LDCs boosted their export values between 60 and 120% and the seven LDCs exporting primarily manufactured goods recorded a rise of 23%. However, exporters of non-fuel primary products - the majority of LDCs - as well as countries with civil strife, recorded a decline in their export earnings in 2000.

Trade developments of Regional Trade Agreements showed a great variation in 2000. Intra-trade of MERCOSUR and ASEAN expanded faster than total merchandise trade while for the EU and CEFTA intra-regional trade rose less rapidly than extra-regional trade. Intra-trade of NAFTA expanded faster than its exports to other regions. However, NAFTA imports from other regions rose as fast as its intra-trade.

Intra-regional trade accounts for a smaller share of total trade in commercial services than for merchandise trade in both the EU and NAFTA. For the EU the share of intra-trade in commercial services was 55% in 2000, roughly unchanged from the early 1990s. For NAFTA, the share in 2000 was, at less than one quarter of total services trade, about half the rate recorded for merchandise trade. wto

Over the past decade, developing countries have consistently outperformed industrialized countries in terms of export growth – an average increase of almost 10 per cent a year, compared to 5 per cent for the industrialized countries. And trade among developing countries is growing more quickly than trade with the industrialized North. (WTO 2)

Last year alone, developing-country exports rose by 15 per cent – three times their GDP growth – the best rate of growth in five decades. Even with the current global economic slowdown, developing countries are expected to show much stronger trade growth this year than the industrialized economies. (WTO 2)

d. Long-term trends in international trade

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The value of world merchandise exports reached $6.19 trillion in 2000, more than hundred times the value of $58 million in 1948.

World merchandise exports per capita amounted to 23 dollars in 1948 and rose to $1094 in 2000 (measured at current prices).

The average annual real merchandise trade expansion was 6.1% for the 1948-2000 period.

Merchandise output grew at 3.9% annually during the 1948-2000 period.

Real merchandise trade expanded by a factor of 20 and output by a factor of 7 between 1948 and 2000.

World exports of manufactures expanded on average by 8 per cent annually between 1948 and 2000.

In 2000 the value of world exports of manufactures was more than 50 times larger than in 1948 (measured at constant prices).

The share of manufactures in world merchandise trade rose from 38% in 1948 to 75% in 2000.

The ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP stood at 8% in 1948 and increased to 29.5% in 2000 (measured at constant 1987 prices). wto

e. Trade and developing countries

Each year, developing countries claim a larger and larger share of the industrialized world's imports – from 15 per cent in 1990 to almost 25 per cent in 2000. Over half of Japan's manufactured imports now come from developing countries. For the United States, the share is 45 per cent and rising. (WTO)

Developing countries already account for a third of world trade, up from a fifth in the 1970s. (WTO)

Developing countries have gained significantly from trade liberalization under the Uruguay Round and, according to one study, would realize some US$200 billion if remaining trade barriers were halved in a new Round. That is three times what the developing world receives in overseas aid. Eight times what poor countries have so far been granted in debt relief. (Tinbergen Institute)

Total merchandise exports - industrial, agricultural and mining products - from developing countries to other developing countries in the 1990s grew much faster (at a 10 per cent rate) than exports from developing to developed countries, which grew at a 6.4 per cent annual average. Merchandise exports from developing countries to other developing countries as a percentage of total developing country exports increased from 28 per cent in 1990 to about 38 per cent in 2000. (WTO)

Estimated benefits of a new round

It is estimated that cutting barriers to trade in agriculture, manufacturing and services by a third would boost the world economy by 613 billion dollars – the equivalent of adding an economy the size of Canada to the world economy. Doing away with all trade barriers would boost the world economy by nearly 1.9 trillion dollars; the equivalent of adding two more Chinas to the world economy. And most of the benefits of economic growth would accrue to developing countries. (Source: Study by Robert Stern of Michigan University)

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It is estimated that barriers to manufacturing exports account for around 70% of the total export barriers faced by developing countries and that three-quarters of the gains from further manufacturing liberalisation would go to developing countries. (Source: Study by Thomas Hertel and Will Martin of the World Bank)

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3.. Foreign Direct Investment

a. General

Between 1982 and 2000, world FDI inflows grew 22 fold from US$57 billion to US$1271 billion. wir

During the last decade, FDI grew much faster than trade. Between 1991 and 1995, the average annual growth rate of FDI was 21 percent compared to 9 percent for exports of goods and non-factor services. Between 1996 and 1999, the difference increased with FDI growing at an average rate of 41 percent and exports growing at 2 percent. wir

Total FDI inflows reached a record US$1.3 trillion in 2000. The growth of FDI inflows however slowed down from 55 percent in 1999 to 18 percent in 2000 and FDI flows are expected to decline in 2001. wir

With US$16 trillion, total sales of foreign affiliates were larger in 2000 than world exports of goods and non-factor services which amounted to US$7 trillion. wir

In 2000, one quarter of total foreign affiliates sales was exported. wir

A comparison between 1985 and 2000 suggests that FDI reaches many more countries in a substantial manner now than in the past. However, FDI is still unevenly distributed. wir

Global FDI inward stock rose 10 fold since 1980 or 12% annually. Global FDI inward stock stood at US$6,310 billion in 2000. wir

The ratio of world FDI inward stock to GDP nearly tripled between 1980 and 1999, from 6.0% to 17.3%. wir

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions topped US$1,144 billion in 2000, nearly 8 times their level in 1990. wir

b. Developed Economies

Developed countries account for most FDI outflows and inflows. In 2000, they accounted for 80 percent of world FDI inflows and 91 percent of world FDI outflows. wir

The EU, the U.S. and Japan together accounted for 71 percent of total FDI inflows and 82 percent of total FDI outflows in 2000. wir

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) account for most of the growth in FDI between OECD countries. wir

c. Developing Economies

FDI inflows into developing countries rose to US$240 billion in 2000. The share of developing countries in world FDI flows however declined for the second year in a row, to 19 percent, compared to the peak of 41 percent in 1994. wir

FDI inflows into Latin America and the Caribbean fell in 2000 but this was more a correction than a shift in the underlying trend. Inflows into developing Asia reached a record level of US$143 billion in 2000. Hong-Kong in particular experienced an unprecedented FDI boom. China's accession to the WTO may have contributed to this boom. wir

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FDI flows to China accounted for 17 percent of FDI inflows into developing countries in 2000. wir

The ratio of FDI inward stock to GDP for developing countries nearly tripled between 1980 and 1999, from 10.2% to 28.0%. wir

d. Economies in Transition

In 2000, countries in Central and Eastern Europe maintained their share of 2 percent of total FDI inflows. wir

e. LDCs

FDI inflows into LDCs reached US$4.4 billion in 2000, four times their average level in 1989-1994. wir

In 2000, total FDI inflows into LDCs were about the size of total FDI inflows into Portugal. wir

In 2000, FDI inflows into Africa declined for the first time since the mid-1990s. However, inflows in 2000 were about two times larger than in the early 1990s. Africa accounted for less than 1 percent of total FDI inflows. wir

The ratio of FDI inward stock to GDP for Least Developed Countries rose five fold from 2.8% in 1980 to 14.2% in 1999. wir

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4. Capital Flows

a. Developing Economies -- World Bank

During the last decade, external resources to developing countries more than doubled from US$143 billion in 1991 to US$299 billion in 2000. gdf

The developing countries' share of total private capital flows steadily increased from 11.8 percent in 1991 to 14.4 percent in 1997. Since then, however this share has fallen sharply to 7.6 percent in 2000. gdf

Net long-term external resource inflows into developing countries fell from their peak of US$342 billion in 1997 to US$265 billion in 1999 but rebounded to US$296 billion in 2000. gdf

Net short-term financial flows to developing countries, which had reached a peak of US$43.2 billion in 1996, recorded net outflows in 1998 and 1999, and a small net inflow of about US$3.5 billion in 2000. gdf

Between 1991 and 2000, net long-term private resource flows to developing countries increased from US$62 billion to US$257 billion while net long term official resource flows declined from US$61 billion to US$39 billion. gdf

Official development finance – concessional and nonconcessional – to developing countries fell to US$38.6 billion in 2000, from US$55.2 billion in 1990. gdf

Cross-country growth regressions suggest that private capital flows are associated with faster productivity growth: an increase in capital inflows equal to 1 percent of GDP is associated with an increase of about 0.25 percent in GDP growth. This influence may have become more pronounced over time. gdf

Cross-country growth regressions also reveal a negative relationship between capital flow volatility and growth rates. gdf

Despite the high visibility of recent crises, the volatility of capital flows does not appear to have increased substantially for developing countries as a group. gdf

Although exposing domestic financial markets to foreign capital tends to increase instability in the first year, in the medium term foreign inflows are associated with greater stability, not less. gdf

In 1999, official development assistance, measured from the donor side, rose for the second consecutive year, to US$56 billion, that is 0.24 percent of the combined GNP of the principal donors. gdf

By the end of 2000, total committed debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative stood at US$20.3 billion in net present value terms, and US$33.6 billion in nominal terms. Under the HIPC Initiative, debt relief was granted to 22 countries. gdf

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b. Emerging Markets -- IMF

Net private capital flows to emerging markets steadily increased from US$116 billion in 1992 to US$224 billion in 1996. Since then, however they have fallen to US$32.2 billion in 2000. icm

Net FDI flows to emerging markets increased steadily from US$36 billion in 1992 to US$153 billion in 1999 before declining slightly to US$146 billion in 2000. icm

Net portfolio investment flows to emerging markets fluctuated over the last decade, reaching a peak at US$110 billion in 1994 before dropping to US$24 billion in 1998. Overall, their level in 2000 at US$58 billion is only slightly higher than their level in 1991. icm

Emerging markets' reserves have continued to grow in 2000. For the first time since 1997, all regions registered a positive change in reserve assets in 2000. icm

Overall, net private capital flows to emerging markets were equivalent in 1999 to about 1.1% of aggregate emerging market GDP, down from about 3% of the middle of the 1990s.

After having risen from US$1 billion in 1992 to a peak of US$17 billion in 1997, total net private capital flows to emerging African markets declined slightly from US$12.7 billion in 1999 to US$8.6 billion in 2000. icm

Emerging Asian countries registered a net private capital outflow of US$55 billion in 1998 followed by a small inflow in 1999 and a small outflow in 2000. icm

Asia experienced a net private capital inflow of $-27 billion in 1999 from $-42.6 in 1998. In previous years it had increased from $20.8 billion in 1992 to $105 billion in 1995 and 1996. icm

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5. Labour Markets

US

The global slowdown has had a mixed effect on labour markets. For 20001, unemployment is expected to rise in the US (to 5%) and in Australia and Canada.

Europe

In the EU, on the other hand, unemployment fell to below 9% in 2000 and is expected to decline further, albeit more slowly, in 2001.

Japan

The short-term outlook for employment in Japan remains gloomy.

Developing Economies

Unemployment remains high in Latin America.

Unemployment is falling in Asia.

Africa is worst affected: urban unemployment rates are in the range of 15-20%. wto2

Economies in Transition

The situation in the economies in transition and developing countries varies considerably, with unemployment remaining persistently high in the Russian Federation, Central and Eastern Europe.

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II. SOCIAL INDICATORS

A. Population

1. General

World Population

The world's population is projected to cross the 7 billion mark in 2013; the 8 billion mark in 2028; the 9 billion mark in 2054. World population growth is projected to nearly stabilise at just above 10 billion after 2200.

It has taken just 12 years for the world to add the most recent billion people. This is the shortest period of time in world history for a billion people to be added.

World population did not reached one billion in 1804. It took 123 years to reach 2 billion in 1927, 33 years to reach 3 billion in 1960, 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974 and 13 years to reach 5 billion in 1987.

The largest annual increase in the world population (86 million) took place in the late 1980s; the current annual increase is 78 million. unpop

The global population has quadruped in 100 years, the fastest growth rate in history.

Less Developed Regions

Of the 78 million people currently born into the world each year, 95 per cent live in the less developed regions.

80% of the world's population currently resides in less developed regions. At the beginning of the century, 70 per cent did so.

By 2050, the share of the world's population living in less developed regions will have risen to 90%. unpop

India and China

Only China and India have populations of over 1 billion people. According to the United Nations, this is likely to remain the case.

India, with an annual population growth rate of 1.65 per cent, is the largest contributor to world population growth, accounting for 21 per cent of the 78 million annual increment. China contributes about 15 per cent to annual world population growth.

India's population was 345 million people (within the present territory) in 1947. India's population had grown to 1 billion people by 1999.

In the 52 years, between 1947-99, India grew from 345 million to 1 billion people. The population of the world grew that same amount in 454 years, from 345 million around the year 1350 and to 1 billion in around 1804. unpop

China's population passed the 1 billion mark in 1980.

China remains the most populous country in the world, with a total population of 1.27 billion in mid-1999, followed by India with 1 billion. The USA has the third largest population in the world with 276 million people.

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Projections

It is projected that India will have a larger population than China by the year 2045, when United Nations projections estimate a total population of India slightly above and that of China slightly below 1.5 billion (1.501 and 1.496 billion respectively).

By 2016, the population of India (1.22 billion) is expected to be larger than the population of all the more developed countries combined (i.e. all the countries of Europe (including Russia), Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Canada and the United States). unpop

Sixty percent of the world's population growth comes from just twelve countries. India, Pakistan and China are at the top of the list, respectively adding 563, 202, and 187 million more people in the next fifty years. In the 100 years from 1950 China's population with have increased 160 per cent, Indias will have quadrupled, and the populations of Pakistan and Nigeria will have increased nine-fold. (UNDP, 2001– in Lom)

The industrialized nation's share of the world population will continue to fall. Having increased throughout the past centuries, their share of the total has fallen from 32 per cent in 1950 to 20 per cent today, and will fall still further to just 13 per cent in 2050. (UNDP, 2001– in Lom)

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2. Gender Disparities

Gender equality

Closing the gender gap in education adds 0.5% to annual growth in GNP per capita.

The enrolment gap between boys and girls in primary and secondary education narrowed in all regions of the world between 1990 and 1998. The enrolment of girls has increased faster than boys' in some parts of the world.

Enrolment gap between girls and boys is defined as the ratio of girls to boys enrolled in primary and secondary school

By Regions

Africa from 80 to 83% (+3%) South Asia from 65 to 77% (+12%) Middle East and North Africa from 79 to 90% (+11%) East Asia and Pacific from 85 to 93% (+8%) Europe and Central Asia from 94 to 96% (+2%) Latin America from 99 to 102% (+3)

Primary and secondary school enrolment in 1998:

There were markedly fewer girls than boys in primary and secondary schools in 1998.

Gender ratios of primary and secondary school enrolment in 1998 – selected regions and income groups:

- Sub-Saharan Africa - 52 million boys, 44 million girls. - South Asia - 148 million boys, 114 million girls. - East Asia and Pacific - 156 million boys, 146 girls. - High-income countries - 73 million boys, 71 million girls. - Latin America and Caribbean - 57 million girls, 56 million boys. abwa

Gender gaps greater for the poor in 1998

For wealthy families the proportion of girls in school is roughly the same as that of boys.

For poor families fewer of their children go to school, and far fewer girls than boys.

For many poor families the value of girl's labour exceeds the returns they expect from educating their daughters, so they do not go to school. abwa

Example: Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most populous LDCs. In 1978 it had only 4 garment factories. By 1995 Bangladesh had 2,400 employing 1.2 million workers, 90% of them women. Between 1990 – 1997 women's economic activity rate rose from 34% to nearly 40%. Women's participation in the formal labour market is rising. ukwp

Gender and Labour

The proportion of female employment represented by unpaid family work has been falling. This was the case in 11 out of 13 countries with the relevant time-series between 1990-97. In the

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median case, Australia, unpaid family work represented only 1.3% of female employment at the end of the period. The highest figure among the sample was Greece wit 24% and the lowest was the US, with 0.2%.

The female share of part-time employment has also tended to fall, though slightly: from 81-79% in the EU between 1990-97, and from 73-72% in all OECD member countries.

In all 11 countries with gender-specific date, differentials between men's and women's industrial wages narrowed between 1990-97. Employment ratios have been rising for women and falling for men, as have labour force participation rates, while the difference between male and female unemployment rates has narrowed. emp

Maternal Mortality

International Development Goal

To reduce maternal mortality ratios by three-quarters by the year 2015. abwa Global Situation

More than 500,000 women died during pregnancy and childbirth in 1995. It is estimated that necessary services; family planning, basic maternal care, skilled birth attendants, etc. would cost around $3 a person in a year in low-income countries. abwa

By Regions

In Sub-Saharan Africa there were 265 maternal deaths per 1,000 in 1995. In South Asia there were 155 in 1,000 maternal deaths in 1995. In East Asia & Pacific there were 48 in 1,000 maternal deaths in 1995. In Latin-America & Caribbean there were 22 in 1,000 maternal deaths in 1995. In High-income countries there was 1 in 1,000 maternal deaths in 1995. abwa

Global Situation of skilled care at birth:

The proportion of birth attended by skilled health personnel is increasing in most parts of the world, except in Africa. abwa

By Regions

Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region where the proportion of birth attended by skilled personnel went down from 50 to 46% between 1988-98.

In Asia, excluding China and India there was an increase of births attended by skilled health personnel from 29 – 32% between 1988-98.

In Latin-America and the Caribbean there was an increase of births attended by skilled health personnel from 70 – 77% between 1988-98.

In the Middle East and North Africa there was an increase in births attended by skilled health personnel from 48-61 % between 1988-98.

Despite their low incomes, China, Cuba and Sri Lanka have reduced maternal deaths through efforts to improve access to primary health care, strengthen health systems and improve the quality of health care. abwa

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3. Children

Births

Couples in developing countries today have on average 3 children each; thirty years ago they had six. More than half of all couples in developing countries now use contraception. unpop

a. Child Mortality

Global Situation 11 million children under the age of 5 died in 1998, most from preventable causes.

In rich countries fewer than 1 child in 100 does not reach its fifth birthday. While in the poorest countries as many as a fifth of children do not, i.e. 20 children in 100. abwa

Trends

The outlook for children is improving, but very slowly. The under-5 mortality rates (death per 1,000 live births) has gone down in most regions from 1990 to 1998 but the numbers are still high. abwa

Between 1980–1999 world-wide child mortality declined by more than 40% – from 168 in 1000 to 93 in 1000 live births.

Child death rates have fallen by half since 1965, and a child born today can expect to live 10 years longer than a child born then.

The infant mortality rate declined by more than 40% from 1974 – 1998.

Infant mortality rate

The Infant mortality rate (the number of infants dying before reaching the age of one year, per 1,000 live births) word-wide fell from 80 to 54 between 1980-99.

Reductions in infant deaths between 1980 and 1999 (per 1000 live births): 112-77 in low income countries, 54 to 31 in middle income countries and 12 to 6 in high income countries. wdi

Decreases in infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) between 1970-99

In Developing Countries - 109 to 61. In LDCs - 149 to 100. In East Asia and the Pacific - 87 to 34. In Sub-Saharan Africa - 138 to 107. In Eastern Europe and the CIS - 37 to 25. In OECD countries -40 to 13. In high-income OECD countries - 20 to 6. hdr In low human development countries - 142 to 99. In medium human development countries - 99 to 46. In high human development countries - 25 to 7. hdr

In low income countries - 126 to 80 In middle income countries - 85 to 32. In high income countries - 21 to 6. hdr

Under-five mortality rate from 1970-99

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The under-five mortality rate is the probability that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five per 1,000.

In developing countries the under-five mortality rate decreased from 167 to 89. In the LDCs it went down from 243 to 159. In East Asia and the Pacific it decreased from 126 to 44. In South Asia it decreased from 203 to 97. In Sub-Saharan Africa it decreased from 226 to 172. In OECD countries it decreased from 52 to 15. In high-income OECD countries it decreased from 26 to 6. hdr

In low human development countries the under-five mortality rate decreased from 231 to 156 between 1970-99.

In medium development countries it went down from 149 to 62. In high development countries it went down from 32 to 8. hdr

In low income countries the under-five mortality rate decreased from 202 to 120 between 1970-99.

In middle income countries it decreased from 121 to 39. In high income countries it decreased from 26 to 6. hdr

Under-five mortality from 1980-99

World-wide the under-five mortality rate went down from 123-78 between 1980-99. In Low income countries it decreased from 177-116 between 1980-99. In Low and Middle income countries it went from 135-85 in 19080-99.

Under-five mortality rates from 1980-98 per Regions

In Sub-Saharan Africa it remains high at 151 down from 155 The largest drop was in South Asia, from 121 to 89 In the Middle East from 71 to 55 In Europe and Central Asia from 34 to 26 In East Asia it went from 55 to 43 deaths In Latin America down from 49 to 37 In High-Income Countries it went down from 9 to 6 death per 1,000 live births. abwa

Sub-Saharan Africa

From 1990–98 the under-5 mortality rates it went down from 155 to 151

In High-Income Countries it went from 9 to 6 between 1990-98.

In Middle East and North-Africa from 34 to 26. abwa

Deaths at a young age

In the developing regions of the world, there were more than 2 million infant deaths in 1998, whereas there were 100,000 in high-income countries. abwa

In South-Asia the infant death-rate stood at 2.7 million death of infants in 1998. abwa

By Regions

In Sub-Saharan Africa there were 2.3 million infant deaths in 1998.

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In South-Asia there were 2.7 million infant deaths in 1998. In East Asia and Pacific there were 1.2 million infant deaths in 1998. In Latin America and Caribbean there were 0.4 million infant deaths. In Middle East and North Africa there were 0.3 million infant deaths. In Europe and Central Asia there were 0.1 million infant deaths. abwa

International Development Target

Reduce infant and child mortality rates by 2/3 by 2015. abwa

b. Children Malnutrition

Global Situation

In 2000 there were 150 million underweight children in the developing world.

The proportion of malnourished children decreased everywhere, except in Africa during 1990-2000. abwa

The percentage of malnourished children in developing countries decreased from 33-29% between 1985-95. undp

Africa

The proportion of underweight children under 5 increased in 1999 from 28% to 29% in 2000. abwa

33% of children under the age of 5 suffered from malnutrition between 1992 and 1998. wdr

The prevalence of stunting (i.e. low height-for-age) fell in developing countries from 47% in 1980 to 33% in 2000. bwho

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4. Migration

The number of people migrating has risen from 75 million in 1965 to over 125 million migrants today. unpop

In Germany alone the average annual net number of migrants required to maintain the size of the working population between 2000-05 is estimated at about 6 for 1000 inhabitants. emp

5. Urbanisation

The world has become increasingly urban. Currently, around 46 per cent of the world population lives in urban areas; the majority of the world's population will be urban by 2006. unpop

The urban population of the world increased from 1,7 billion to 2,8 billion between 1980-99.

In Low income countries it went from 390 to 760 million between 1980-99.

In Middle income countries the urban population increased from 775 million to 1,3 billion.

In Low and middle income countries urbanisation increased from 1,2 billion to 2,1 billion between 1980-99.

In High income countries it went slightly up from 580 million to 690 million.

The percentage of the urban population increased world-wide from 39 to 46% between 1980-1999. That means that at the end of the millennium almost every second person lived in an urban area.

In Low income countries there was an increase by 7% from 24 to 31% of the population living in urban areas.

In Middle income countries almost 50% of the total population lived in urban areas in 1999, a rise from 38% in 1980. wdi

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B. Human Development

1. General

Progress

The progress of human development in the past 30 years has been impressive. People are living longer, healthier lives, are more literate and better educated and have higher incomes. There has been progress towards gender equality, environmental sustainability and democracy.

The share of people enjoying medium human development, measured by a broad set of indicators (longevity, knowledge, decent standard of living, life expectancy, educational attainment - adult literacy and combined primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment - and adjusted income per capita in purchasing power parity US$) rose: from 48% in 1975 to 71% in 1999.

Globally in the past 30 years

life expectancy went up from 60 years to 67 years of age; infant mortality went down from 100 to lower than 60 deaths per 1,000 live births; under-5 mortality went down from around 150 to 90 per 1,000 live births; the number of undernourished people decreased from more than 900 million to less than 820

million people; adult literacy improved from less than 65% to close to 80%; the secondary enrolment ratio increased from around 20 to 60% and the number of children out of

school decreased from more than 380 million to less than 325 million; income in developing countries increased from around 1,300$ to about 2,500$ GDO per capita,

1985 PPP in US$); income poverty was reduced from 29% to 24%; female enrolment ratio increased from less than 60% of male ratio to more about 90%; Between 1980 and 1999, carbon dioxide emissions decreased from more than 1.2 tonnes to less

than 1.15 tonnes of carbon per capita;

State of Progress towards International Development Goals

66 countries are on track to reduce under-five mortality rates by two-thirds.

50 countries are on track to achieve the safe water goal.

More than 40% of the world's people are living in countries on track to halve income poverty by 2015. (Yet they live in just 11 countries, including China and India which together have 38% of the world's people).

83 countries with 70% of the world's people are now on track to achieve the safe water goal.

70 countries are far from being on target to halve income poverty by 2015. Without China and India, only 9 countries with 5% of the world's people are on track to halve income poverty by 2015. hdr

In the late 1930s mortality rates began to decline rapidly in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and by the 1970s life expectancy at birth had increased to more than 60 years. In Europe that same gain took more than a century and a half starting in the early 1800s. The rapid gains of the 20 th

century were propelled by medical advances – antibiotics and vaccines – while progress in the 19th century depended on slower social and economic changes, such as better sanitation and diets.

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The reduction in undernutrition in South Asia from around 40% in the 1970s to 23% in 1997 – and the end of chronic famine – was made possible by technological breakthroughs in plant breeding, fertilizers and pesticides in the 1960s that doubled world cereal yields in just 40 years. This is an astonishingly short period when compared to the 1,000 years it took for English wheat yields to quadruple from 0.5 to 2.0 tonnes per hectare.

In 1998 OECD countries spent $520 billion on R&D, more than the combined economic output of the world's 30 poorest countries.

OECD countries, with 19% of the world's people, also accounted for 91% of the 347,000 new patents issues in 1998. And in these countries more than 60% of R&D is carried out by the private sector, with a correspondingly smaller role for the public sector research. hdr

2. Education

Global Situation

In developing countries 1 child in 3 does not complete 5 years of primary education. abwa

Adult Illiteracy Rates

Adult illiteracy rates in Low Income countries decreased from 35-29% for males aged 15 and over between 1990-99. For females aged 15 and over it decreased from 56-48%.

Adult illiteracy rates in Low and middle Income countries fell from 22-18% for males in 1990-99.

Adult illiteracy rates in Sub-Saharan Africa fell by 9% from 40-31% between 1990-99. For women it fell by 13% from 60-47% in the same time-period.

For men dult illiteracy rates fell by 12% and more for women in South-Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East and North-Africa. wdi

Youth Illiteracy Rates

Youth illiteracy rates in Low Income countries fell from 24-19% for males aged 15 and over between 1990-99 and 41-31% for females aged 15.

Youth illiteracy rates for women fell considerably from 9 to 13% in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North-Africa between 1990-99. wdi

Public Expenditure on Education

In Middle Income countries public expenditure on education was 4.6% of GNI between 1994-97 and it accounted for 23.3% of GNI per student per capita between 1994-97.

In Low income Countries public expenditure on education was 3.2 % of GNI and 16.3% of GNI per student per capita.

In Low and Middle income countries public expenditure on education was 4% of GNI and 20.5% per student per capita between 1994-97.

In High income countries public expenditure on health was 5.4% of GNI and 26.4% of GNI per student per capita. wdi

Primary Teachers with required academic qualifications

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89% of primary teachers world-wide had required academic qualifications in 1998.

In Low Income countries it was 88%, in Middle Income countries 91%. wdi

Primary pupil-teacher ratio

There were 34 pupils per teacher world-wide in 1997.

In Low Income countries there were 50 pupils, in Middle Income countries 25 and in High Income countries 17 pupils per teacher. wdi

Trends

Because of declining birth rates, the world's school-age population will increase by only 9 million in the next 15 years.

As a result of reduced fertility rates in East Asia, the school-age population there will decline by 24 million.

In Sub-Saharan Africa the school-age population will rise by 33 million people in the next 15 years, added to the 46 million not in school in 1998, that means there will be 79 million children out of school by 2015. abwa

UNESCO estimates that 113 million children were out of school in 1998. wdi

About 97% of children out of school lived in developing countries in 1998.

Nearly 60% of children out of school were girls in 1998.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest proportion of children out of school with 40%. abwa

Net primary enrolment rate from 1990-98 (percent) in selected regions, countries and income groups

By Regions

In Sub-Saharan Africa - 54 to 60% In South-Africa - 66 to 73% In the Middle East and North Africa - 82 to 86% In East and Central Asia - 86 to 93%. In Latin America and the Caribbean - 84 to 94% In East Asia and the Pacific - 96-97% In High-income countries - 97-98% wdi

Sub-Saharan Africa

50 million of primary school age children were out of school in 1998. ukwp

Net primary enrolment between 1990-98 rose from 54% to 60% (6%). abwa

The primary enrolment of girls has increased in Sub-Saharan Africa from 80 to 83% (3%). abwa

The enrolment gap between boys and girls in primary and secondary education narrowed in all regions of the world between 1990 and 1998. abwa

Adult illiteracy rate (percentage of people aged 15 and older) decreased between 1990-97 by 8% from 50-42%. wdi

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Public expenditure on education went up from 3.9 - 4.8% of GNP between 1980-97. wdr

International Development Target

Universal primary education in all countries by 2015. abwa

Net enrolment rates at 99% by the year 2015. The percentage of children of primary school age enrolled in primary education, measures by access.

Completion rates at 99% by the year 2015. The progression of children into the fifth grade level of schooling, i.e. the proportion of pupils enrolled in grade 1 who complete four years of primary education. dfid

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3. Medical, Health and Sanitation

a. Life expectancy

Life expectancy at Birth between 1980-99

Life expectancy world-wide increased by 3 years, from 63 to 66 years between 1980-99.

In Low income countries it increased by 6 years to 59 years between 1980-99.

In Middle income countries it increased by 3 years to 69 years between 1980-99.

In High income countries increased from 74 to 78 years between 1980-99. wdi

Life expectancy at Birth between the periods of 1970-75 and 1995-2000

Life expectancy at birth in developing countries increased by 9 years from 55 to 64 between the periods 1970-75 and 1995-2000.

In the LDCs life expectancy at birth increased by 7 years from 44 to 51 years. In Sub-Saharan Africa life expectancy at birth increased by 4 years from 45 to 49 years. In East Asia and the Pacific it increased by 9 years from 60 to 69 years. In Latin America and the Caribbean it increased by 8 years from 61 to 69 years. In South Asia life expectancy at birth increased by 12 years from 50 to 62 years. In Eastern Europe and the CIS life expectancy at birth decreased by 1 years from 69 to 68 years. In OECD countries life expectancy increased by 6 years from 70 to 76 years. In the low human development countries life expectancy increased by 7 years from 45 to 52 years

between the periods 1970-75 and 1995-2000. In the medium human development countries life expectancy increased by 9 years from 58 to 67

years. In the high human development countries life expectancy increased from by 6 years from 71 to 77

years. In Low income countries life expectancy increased from 50 to 59 years between the periods 1970-

75 and 1995-2000. In Medium income countries life expectancy increased from 63 to 69 year. In High income countries life expectancy increased from 72 to 78 years. hdr

Ageing

The world population is ageing. The median age increased from 23.5 years in 1950 to 26.4 years in 1999.

By 2050, the median age is projected to reach 37.8 years.

The number of people in the world aged 60 or older will also rise from the current 1-10 persons to be 2-9 by 2050.

Currently around 1 in 5 people in the developed countries are aged 60 or older; in 2050 nearly 1 in every 3 people will be aged 60 or older. unpop

The proportion of the population over the age of 65 in more developed regions, as fertility falls, will reach almost 16% by the end of the decade in 2010.

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The ratio of those over 65 to those in the declining 15-64 age group (the "old-age dependency ratio") in the more developed regions is set to rise even higher, to 23% in 2010, 37% in 2030, and 44% in 2050.

In LDCs the ratio of the population over 65 remained the same at 3% from 1980-2000, and is projected to rise only slightly to 4.5% in 2030 and to 8% in 2050. emp

Adult mortality

The world-wide adult mortality rate (the probability of dying between the ages 15-60 per 1,000) was 221 for males and 170 for females in 1999.

In Low income countries it was 288 for males and 258 for females in 1999.

In Low and Middle income countries it was 239 for males and 190 for females in 1999.

In Middle income countries it was 199 for males and 135 for females in 1999.

In Sub-Saharan countries the adult mortality rate was 499 for males and 453 for females. wdi

b. Health

Public Expenditure on Health

In Low Income Countries public expenditure on health was 1.2 % of GDP and $20 per capita.

In Low and Middle Income countries public expenditure on health was 2% of GDP and $87 per capita.

In High Income countries public expenditure on health was 6.1% of GDP and $1,582 per capita. wdi

Global Situation

1 person in 7 suffers chronic hunger. abwa

10% of international research on health focuses on diseases affecting 90% of the world's population. dfid

The leading causes of deaths globally in 1999 were: 1. Heart Attack, 2. Strokes, 3. Pneumonia, 4. Aids, 5. Asthma. whr

AIDS killed 3 million people in 2000, and 2.6 million in 1999. aids

Tuberculoses kills more than 2 million people each year.

Malaria kills more than 1 million people each year. ukwp

Sub-Saharan Africa:

Malaria, Measles, Diarrhea and Birth-related causes are among the top 6 causes for death. whr

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Controlling Malaria in parts of Africa would raise Africa's GDP by 20% over a 15 year period. ukwp

90% of maternal deaths occur in developing countries, most of them preventable.

The proportion of birth attended by skilled health personnel dropped from 50-46% between 1988-98. In Middle East and North-Africa it went up from 48-61%.

c. HIV/AIDS

Global Situation

AIDS is globally the 4. highest ranking cause of death. whr

It is estimated 3 million adult and child deaths due to HIV/AIDS during 2000. aids2

36 million people lived with HIV/AIDS in 2000. ukwp

There were 5.3 million new HIV infections in 2000. aids2

There are 15,000 new HIV infections world-wide every day. dfid

Situation in 2000

AIDS is already the world-wide leading cause of death in adults – in the 15-49 age bracket.

The total number of newly infected people world-wide with HIV in 2000 was 5.3 million, Adults 4.7 million (Women 2.2 million) and children 600,000.

The number of people living with HIV/AIDS was a total of 36.1 millionAdults 34.7 million (Women 16.4 million) and Children 1.4 million

The number of AIDS death in 2000 was a total of 3 millionAdults 2.5 million (Women 1.3 million) and Children 500,000

The total number of AIDS death since the beginning of the epidemic in 2000 was 21.8 million

In 2000 around 22 million have died of AIDS.

Situation in 1999

There were 16,000 new HIV infections every day.

More than 86% of the infections were in the developing world.

The total number of AIDS deaths since the beginning of the epidemic was 16.3 million in 1999.Adults 12.7 million (Women 6.2 million) and Children 3.6 million

By Regions

Sub-Saharan Africa

AIDS was in 1999 the leading cause of death. 1. AIDS, 2. Pneumonia, 3. Malaria, … 7. TB. whr

25.3 million adults and children lived with HIV/AIDS in 2000.

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72% of new HIV infections were in Sub-Sahara Africa in 2000. aids2

Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 80% of the world's AIDS deaths. aids2

80% of the children living with HIV in the world are in Africa.

72% of the adults living with HIV in the world are in Africa. aids2

8.8% of African adults live with HIV/AIDS. aids2

AIDS will claim lives of around a third of today's 15-year-olds in 8 African countries where at least 15% of today's adults are infected. aids2

47% of HIV positive adults are women. aids2

Three-quarters of the 20 million people who died since the epidemic began were buried in Africa. aids2

Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa

AIDS deaths in 2000 totalled 2.4 million, compared with 2.2 million in 1999. aids2

The number of newly infected people decreased between 1999-2000 by 5%. aids2

Predicted Loss in Life Expectancy due to HIV/AIDS at birth in Sub-Saharan Africa

In some Sub-Saharan states life expectancy went down by 5 years (in Haiti, Cambodia) to 32 years (in Botswana, Zimbabwe). aids2

Botswana: Life expectancy of a child born in 2000 has dropped to 40 from 71.

Zimbabwe: Life expectancy of a child born in 2000 has dropped to 38 from 70. whr

Cost of HIV to Business

Over 1/3 of employees of all miners in Southern Africa in their late20s and 30s were infected with HIV.

9/10 of those HIV-positive men were married, and had an average of 6-7 dependants.

HIV-positive workers take an average of 17 days off work to visit clinics etc, in the two years prior to retiring.

Lost production (absenteeism, clinic, hospital, and training and pay for new workers) cost over $1000 per sick worker.

With lower production and higher costs, some companies choose to expand in countries less effected by the epidemic.

Asia

Low infection rates but rapid spread.

In 1999 6.4 million people lived with HIV in Asia, just over 1 in 5 of the world's total. By the end of the year 2000, that proportion was expected to grow to 1 in 4.

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About 94,000 children lived with HIV in 1999. aids

The countries of South East Asia, with the exception of Indonesia, the Philippines and Laos are comparatively hard hit, as is India.

In India over 3 million people have AIDS.

In Cambodia, Thailand and Burma over 2% of the adult population is infected. ukwp

While the prevalence remains low in China, they are beginning to record increasing numbers of cases. Only a few countries in the region have developed sophisticated systems for monitoring the spread of the virus, so HIV estimates in Asia often have been made on the basis of less information than in other regions. aids

Latin-America

Most infections were in marginalized groups.

Men having unprotected sex with men, as well as drug injectors who share needles, are the focal points of HIV infection in many countries in the region.

Rising rates in women show that heterosexual transmission is becoming more prominent with the proportion being around one fifth. aids2

Eastern Europe

In the 1990s, the former socialist economies of Easter Europe and Central Asia have seen infections increase around six-fold.

Until 1994, mass screening of blood samples from people whose behaviour put them at risk for HIV showed extremely low levels of infection. aids2

By the end of 1997, 190,000 adults were infected. The most common form of spread is through unsafe drug injecting, and to a lesser extent through sex workers.

The rise in new cases of STDs may reflect dramatic increase in unprotected sex, which indicates that the risk of HIV infection is spreading rapidly throughout the general population of Eastern Europe. aids2

Industrialised World

Aids is falling

In Western Europe, HIV infection rates appear to be dropping, with new infections concentrated among drug injectors in the southern countries, particularly Greece and Portugal.

About 30,000 new cases were reported in 1997. Antiretroviral drugs have accounted for low mother to baby transmission.

In North America 42,000 new HIV infections were reported with half that number being among injecting drug users.

In the USA, in some disadvantaged sections of society, AIDS continues to rise.

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As in Western Europe, mother to baby transmission is rare. Although cases of HIV infections continue to rise in the industrialized world, the cases of AIDS are falling.

North Africa and the Middle East

There is less known about HIV infection in this region than in other parts of the world.

Just over 200,000 people are estimated to be living with HIV in these countries, under 1% of the world total. aids

d. Sanitation

Access to improved sanitation facilities (the percentage of the urban or rural population with access to at least adequate excreta disposal facilities) increased world-wide from 78 to 84% for the urban population and it increased from 29-36% for the rural population.

Between 1990-2000 in Low income countries access to improved sanitation facilities improved from 68 to 79% of the urban population and from 25 to 31% of the rural population.

In Middle income countries the access to improved sanitation facilities improved from 29-39% of the rural population and from 75-82% of the urban population. aids

e. Access to Food and Fresh Water

Basically we now have far more food per person that we used to, even though the population has doubled since 1961. The Green Revolution has been victorious. Production in the developing countries has tripled. Food security is today better because of enlarged international trade. (FAO, 1996-2001– in Lom)

Globally the proportion of people starving in the developing world has fallen from 45 per cent in 1949, to 35 per cent in 1970, to 18 per cent in 1997 - and the UN expects that the figure will have fallen to 12 per cent by 2010. It is not just the proportion of people starving which has fallen, but the absolute number as well. While in 1971 almost 920 million people were starving, the total fell to below 792 in 1997 (i.e., 237 million fewer people are starving). In 2010 it is expected to fall to 680 million. (WFS, 1996– in Lom)

The proportion of children in the developing world considered to be undernourished has fallen from 40 per cent to 30 per cent over the past 15 years, and it is expected to fall further to 24 per cent in 2020. (FAO, 1996-2001– in Lom)

On average the developing countries have increased their food intake from 2,463 to 2,663 calories per person per day over the last decade, an increase of 8 per cent. (FAO, 2000– in Lom)

The FAO predicts that there will be more food, for more people, both in 2010, 2015 and 2030. It is expected that there will be fewer malnourished people, and that all regions will experience increasing available calories per capita. The same general conclusion is reached by IFPRI, USDA, and the World Bank – and all three at lower prices. (IFPRI, 1997; ERS, 1997; USDA, 2000; FOA, 1995– in Lom).

More than 96 percent of all nations have at present sufficient water resources. On all continents, water accessibility has increased per person. (UN, 1997– in Lom)

The problem is water misallocation and wastage – and this occurs largely because water in many places is not well priced. Our water consumption has almost quadrupled since 1940. This is particularly a problem for poorer countries. The poorest countries use 90 per cent of their water for irrigation compared to just 37 percent for rich countries. Despite these problems, the situation

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is improving. The share of people in developing countries with access to water has increased from 30 per cent in 1970 to 80 per cent in 2000. (World Bank, 1992– in Lom)

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C. Poverty and Income

Global Poverty

1 person in 5 lived on less than $1 per day in 1998. abwa

1.2 billion people lived on less than $1 a day in 1998. abwa

1.6 billion people lived between $1-2 a day in 1998. gep

Of the world's 6 billion people, 2.8 billion --almost half--were living on less than $2 a day in 1998. wdr

Trends in Global Poverty

The number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide increased between 1987–1990 from 1.2 to 1.3 billion and decreased again to1.2 billion in 1998. gep

The number of people living under 2$ a day increased between 1987–1990 from 2.5 to 2.7 billion, and increased to reach 2.8 billion in 1998. gep

The proportion of people worldwide living in extreme poverty decreased by around 5 percentage points between 1990-1998, from 25% to 20%. abwa

Between 1987 and 1998 the share of the population in developing and transition economies living on less than a $ 1 a day fell from 28 % to 24 %. wdr

The international development target is to halve the proportion of people living in extreme poverty and bring it down to around 12% by 2015. abwa

According to the UN, we have reduced poverty more in the last 50 years than in the last 500, and it has been reduced in practically every country. (UNDP, 1997 – in Lom)

Fantastic progress has been made in reducing poverty in developing countries. During the last four decades, the social indicators have improved in all regions. In the past two decades, poverty has been drastically reduced in East Asia: from six out of ten living on under $1 dollar a day in the mid-1970s, to two our of the ten in the mid-1990s. There has also been a reduction in poverty during the last few years throughout most of southern Asia and parts of the Middle East, North Africa, and Latin America. (World Bank, 1998 – in Lom)

However, both the UN and the World Bank emphasise that there is a long way to go. In 1987, 1.8 billion people lived on less that one 1985-dollar a day, which is the World Bank's poverty line. This number increased in the early 1990s to 1.3 billion, only to decline again towards the end of the decade – in 1998 the number of poor people was again down to 1.2 billion. Because of the concurrent population increase, the percentage of poor in the developing world has declined from 28.3 percent in 1987 to 24 percent in 1998. Indeed, although the total number of poor has remained about the same (1.2 billion), the proportion of poor people has been more than halved from around 50 percent in 1950. Thus, over the past 50 years, some 3.4 billion more people have risen out of poverty. (World Bank, 2001; Barry et al., 1991– in Lom)

Extreme Poverty (less than 1$ a day) in Sub-Saharan Africa

The number of people living in extreme poverty was 302 million in 1998. gep

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The share of the population living in extreme poverty was 48% in 1998. gep

24% of the developing world population living in extreme poverty is living in Sub-Saharan Africa. wdr

Poverty (less than 2$ a day) in Sub-Saharan Africa

The number of people living on less than 2$ a day was 489 million in 1998. gep

The share of the population living on less than 2$ a day was 78% in 1998. gep

Recent Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa

The number of people living in extreme poverty increased 1987–1998 by 39%. gep

The proportion of people living in extreme poverty increased 1987-93 from 47% to 50% and fell to 48% in 1998. gep-wdr

Sub-Saharan's share of the population living in extreme poverty in the developing world increased from 18 - 24% between 1987 - 1998. wdr

The number of people living on less than 2$ a day increased by 37% between 1987–1998. gepRegional Inequality

The ratio of East Asian income to that of high-income OECD countries increased from 1/10 to nearly 1/5 over 1960-1998. In Latin America and the Caribbean this ratio remained roughly stable at 1/5. Income in South Asia--after worsening in the 1960s and 1970s, then improving significantly in the 1980s and 1990s--remains about 1/10 of that in OECD countries. In Sub-Saharan African, per capita income was around 1/9 of that in OECD countries in 1960 and deteriorated to around 1/18 in 1998. hdr

Despite a reduction in the relative differences between many countries, absolute gaps in per capita income have increased. For East Asia and the Pacific, the fastest growing region, the absolute difference in income with high-income OECD countries widened from about $6,000 in 1960 to more than $13,000 in 1998 (1985 PPP US$). hdr

Global Inequality

World inequality is very high, in 1993 the poorest 10% of the world's people had only 1.6% of the income of the richest 10%. hdr

The richest 1% of the world's people received as much income as the poorest 57% in 1993. hdr

In 1993 the richest 10% of the US population (around 25 million people) had a combined income greater than that of the poorest 43% of the world's people (around 2 billion). hdr

In 1993 around 25% of the world's people received 75% of the world's income (in PPP US$). hdr

Measured by the Gini index, world inequality increased from an already high 63 in 1988 to 66 in 1993. This is a faster rate of increase of inequality than that experienced within the US and Britain during the 1980s. mila

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Between 1988 and 1993, the poorest five percent of the world population have lost almost 1/4 of their real income, while the top quintile has gained 12 percent. mila

The average income GDP per capita at PPP in the richest 20 countries is 37times the average in the poorest 20 – a gap that has doubled in the past 40 years. wdr

Income and Mobility

In South Africa 63% of households in poverty in 1993 were still there in 1998, while 60% of households in the highest income category in 1993 were still there in 1998, indicating limited income mobility.

In Russia downward mobility was extreme in the late 1990s. Among households in the top income quintile in 1995, nearly 60% slid to lower quintiles by 1998; and 7% fell to the bottom quintile.

In Peru there has been a great deal of movement up and down the income ladder. Opportunities are increasing with market reforms, but so are insecurities. Between 1985 and 1991, 61% of households had income increases of 30% or more and 14% had income drops of 30% or more. Overall, downward mobility dominated in 1985-91, and upward mobility in 1991-97. hdr

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D. Labour and Employment

Global Situation

The ILO estimated open unemployment at the end of 2000 at approximately 160 million, 20 million higher than before the East Asian crisis in 1998. emp

People living in extreme poverty in the developing world, about 1.2 billion, are almost entirely supported by the earnings of the 500 million workers among them--the "working poor". emp

One-third of the world labour force of about 3 billion people are either unemployed, underemployed or earn less than is needed to keep their families out of poverty. emp

Over the next ten years there will be some 460 million new, young job-seekers. Only 3% of them will be in Europe and North-America. Two-thirds will be in Asia. Fewer than earlier predicted will be in Africa because the HIV/AIDS epidemic is having a disastrous impact on the economy and the labour market. emp

Unemployment Rates 1990-2000

In developed countries the unemployment rate had increased between 1990-1995 from 6.1 to 7.4 per cent and then fell to 6.2 per cent in 2000.

European unemployment increased from 7.7 per cent to 11 per cent between 1990-1995 and then fell to 9.0 per cent in 1999. Japanese unemployment steadily increased from 2.1 per cent in 1990 to 4.7 per cent in September 2000. U.S. unemployment remained fairly stable in the first half of the nineties at a level of 5.6 per cent and subsequently fell to 3.9 per cent in September 2000.

Unemployment rates increased in Latin America and the Caribbean in the 1990s from 5.7 per cent in 1990 to 8.9 per cent in 2000.

In Asia and the Pacific unemployment remained relatively stable at 4% in 1990 with a slight increase to 4.6% in 2000.

In the Middle East and North Africa unemployment rates increased from 7.1 per cent in 1990 to 10.9 per cent in 1995.

Unemployment was at 8.3 per cent in transition economies in 1995 and increased to 10.9 per cent in 2000.

In 1998 the unemployment rate was estimated at over 14 per cent in the Central Eastern European countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States as a whole. emp

Youth Unemployment

In the OECD countries, the overall unemployment rate for 15-24 years old rose from 11.6% to 13.9% in 1990-96, then fell to 11.8% in 1999.

Youth unemployment reached a level of almost 30% in transition economies in 1998, compared with the EU's 21%.

In Latin America youth unemployment reached 18.9 per cent in the first three quarters of 2000. emp

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Long-term Unemployment

30.9% of the OECD unemployed had been out of work for more than a year in 1990; by 1997 it was 34.9%, but in 1999 it was down to 31.2%. emp

Children in the Labour Force

The share of children, aged 10-14, in the labour force fell from 20 to 12% world-wide from 1980-99.

The fall in the share of children, aged 10-14, in the labour force was strongest in East Asia & Pacific, where it fell from 26% to 9% between 1980-1999.

In low and middle income regions of the world the share of children, aged 10-14, in the labour force went down from 23 to 13% between 1980-99.

The share of children, aged 10-14, in the labour force was highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, where it fell from 35% to 29% between 1980-1999. wdi

Gender Analysis

In general, towards the end of the 1990s, whereas non-salaried male workers tended to be self-employed, non-salaried women tended to be unpaid family workers. The incidence of part-time work was higher for women, women still received lower wages, on average, than men and women tended to have higher unemployment and inactivity rates.

In OECD countries the female share of part-time employment fell from 73 to 72 percent between 1990-1999. In all 11 OECD countries with gender specific data the differentials between men's and women's industrial wages narrowed between 1990 and 1997. In OECD countries unemployment rates stood at 5.4% for men and at 6.9% for women in 1990. In 1999 the corresponding percentages were 6.0% and 6.9%. emp

Retirement

The proportion of men in the 60-64 age group who are still in the labour force is only half in the US, just over one-third in Germany and less than one-fifth in France and the Netherlands. "Retirement, a concept that barely existed a century ago, now begins so early that men spend only half their lives in work." emp

Self-Employment

In contrast to the 1970s and 1980s, non-agricultural self-employment has been growing faster than civilian employment as a whole in most OECD countries during the 1990s. emp

In 1998 the share of non-agricultural self-employed was an unweighted average of below 12 per cent of total employment in OECD countries. emp

Part-time

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Part-time work has tended to increase as a proportion of total employment. Between 1990-99 it increased from 13 to 16% in the EU, from 13 to 15 % in Europe as a whole and from 14-16% in OECD countries. emp

Temporary Work

In twelve European Union countries for which data are available the proportion of wage employment regarded as temporary increased from 10 to 12 per cent between 1990-1997.

In six other countries for which comparable data are available the proportion of wage employment regarded as temporary rose --in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Colombia and Japan -- and fell only in the Republic of Korea. emp

The Spatial Distribution of Employment

One-fourth of the workforce in the UK now carries out at least some of its work at home. emp

By 2003 there will be an estimated 1.3 million employed in call centres in the European Union, up from an estimated 670,000 in 2001. emp

One estimate suggests that up to 5 per cent of all service-sector jobs in industrialised countries could be "contestable" by developing countries. This would amount to about 12 million jobs in which relocation to developing countries could occur. emp

International Labour Migration - general

The share of foreigners or non-citizens in the labour force in the OECD countries increased between 1990-97 in 10 out of the 15 countries for which data are available for both years. emp

In 10 out of 15 OECD countries for which comparable data are available, non-citizens or foreigners represented more than 5 % of the labour force in 1997. emp

Among OECD countries the highest shares of foreigners or non-citizens in the labour force are found in Luxembourg (55 % in 1997), Australia (25 % in 1996), Canada (19% in 1996) and Switzerland (18% in 1997). The low ranks are occupied by Japan ( 1% in 1997), Spain (1% in 1997) and Italy (2% in 1997). emp

In Australia foreign workers accounted for 25% of the work force in 1999. In Canada about 20%, in Switzerland 17%, and 11% in USA. The share of foreign workers in the employed work force was in Austria 10%, in Germany and Belgium 9%, in France 6%, in Sweden 5% and the UK 4%. ft

The pressure within the global labour market are most dramatically illustrated by the growth of illegal international migration. In June 2000 the discovery of the bodies of 54 Chinese men and women, along with two surviving men, in the back of a container lorry in Dover, Britain's main channel port, drew attention to the inhumanity of this trade.

It is estimated that 400,000 to 500,000 migrants are smuggled into the EU, and 300,000 unauthorised foreigners cross US borders each year, suggesting that the figures of foreign-born labour force in the OECD countries are indeed higher that estimated. emp

International Labour Migration - for the high skilled

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At higher skill levels movement of persons is becoming freer in the global labour market. emp

In Canada in the 1990s immigrants accounted for about a third of the increase in employment among computer engineers, systems analysts and computer programmers.

Around a quarter of the heads of Silicon Valley companies were born outside of the US. emp

New regulations in Germany effective from August 2000 allow the entry 20,000 computing specialists over a period of 3 years. emp

India, Eastern Europe and North-Africa are likely to be among the main sources of employment supply. emp

Regional Employment Trends

USA

Hourly labour productivity in 1995-99 grew at 2.7% per year, compared with just over 1% in the previous 13 years. emp

In the US the Gini ratio for 1998 was at 0.46%, and only slightly higher than the 0.45% recorded 3 years earlier. Family incomes in the lowest quintile rose at an annual rate of 2.7%, compared with 2.4% for the top quintile between 1993-98, in contrast with patterns of change in the previous 20 years. Inequality in the distribution of wages has begun to decline since 1994. emp

Europe

Austria, Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands have in their different ways reduced unemployment rates or maintained them at low levels, lowered the incidence of youth and long-term unemployment, increased employment rates, and reduced gender gaps.

In mid-2000 the unemployment rate in the UK was at its lowest level for 20 years.

In France and Germany, there have been recent signs of improvement, with unemployment rates dropping below 10% for the first time in many years. emp

Nevertheless, high rates of unemployment in many Western European countries continues to be a fundamental economic and social problem and is still the source of poverty. Long-term unemployment remains stubbornly high, leaving a significant number of individuals effectively excluded from the labour market. emp

Transitional Economies

Regional disparities in unemployment rates remain high and are still growing in all the transition countries. The differences often exceed 20%. Members of some ethnic minorities suffer disproportionately from unemployment.

Long-term unemployment is a serious problem, with an incidence ranging from 16% of total unemployment in the Czech Republic to 68% in Georgia.

The only transition economy with real wages higher in 1998 than 1989 was the Czech Republic. The unweighted average decline of real wages for 15 transitional economies was 39% between 1989 and 1998.

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A new type of poverty has emerged in transition economies. It affects the younger working-age population, including low wage earners, the unemployed and underemployed, and workers whose wages are not paid.

The minimum wage has fallen below the minimum subsistence level in most of these countries. emp

Latin America and the Caribbean countries

The urban unemployment rate increased in eight out of ten selected Latin American countries between 1990 and the first three quarters of 2000. The strongest increases were in Argentina (7.5% to 15.4%) and Colombia (10.5% to 20.4%). Urban unemployment fell only in Mexico (2.8% to 2.3%) and Panama (20.0% to 13.3%).

In six out of eight selected Latin American countries the annual rate of growth of real industrial wages was positive over the period 1990-1998, with Brazil (4.2%) and Chile (4.4%) showing the highest increases. Real industrial wages remained unchanged in Argentina over the same period and declined in Mexico (-1.4%).

Caribbean countries are characterised by double-digit unemployment rates. Unemployment fell in Barbados (from 15.0% to 10.4%) and Puerto Rico (from 14.1% to 11.8%) between 1990-1999 and in Trinidad and Tobago (from 20.0% to 14.2%) between 1990-1998. Unemployment increased in Jamaica from 15.7% to 16.0% between 1990-1996 and in Belize from 12.5% to 12.8% between 1995-1999. emp

Asia and the Pacific Region

1999 and 2000 were years of recovery for the region from the crisis in 1997-98. emp

Unemployment rates were higher in 1999 than in 1990 in nine out of eleven selected Asian and Pacific countries. The increase was highest in Hong Kong, China (1.3% to 4.7% in 1998), the Republic of Korea (2.5% to 6.3%) and Singapore (1.7% to 4.6%). Unemployment increased from 2.5% to 3.1% in China over the same period. In Malaysia (5.1% to 3.4%) and Sri Lanka (14.4% to 10.6% in 1998) unemployment decreased. emp

Sri Lanka (3.8%), Malaysia (3.7%) and Pakistan (3.7%) were the countries with the highest annual growth rates of employment in the late 1990s. Employment growth rates were negative for the Republic of Korea (-0.2%) and Thailand (-0.3%) over the same period. emp

Middle East and North Africa

Unemployment rates increased in Algeria (from 19.8% to 28.7% between 1990-1997) and Morocco (from 15.8% to 22.0% between 1990-1999) over the 1990s. It decreased slightly in Egypt from 8.6% in 1990 to 8.2% in 1998.

In Morocco the annual labour force growth was 11.7% between 1990-1999, whereas it was 1.5% in Egypt between 1990-1998. emp

Sub-Saharan Africa

In 1999 unemployment rates were 25.3% in South Africa, 15.0% in Zambia and 6.0% in Zimbabwe. Unemployment stood at 40.5% in Lesotho and at 19.5% in Namibia in 1997, at 21.5% in Botswana in 1996 and at 9.8% in Mauritius in 1995.

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[unaids] UNAIDS. AIDS epidemic update: December 2000.

[ukwp] United Kingdom. White Paper on International Development. "Eliminating World Poverty: Making Globalisation Work for the Poor". Norwich. The Stationary Office. Dec. 2000.

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[undp] UNDP Poverty Report 2000. Overcoming Human Poverty. New York. 2000

[unpop] UN Population Information Network. UN Website. NY. 2001.

[wade] Wade, Robert. "Winners and Losers". The Economist 28.4.01. p.79-82

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[weo] World Economic Outlook. Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability. May 2001. IMF

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