summary of accomplishments for fema region ix ccamp open ... · marin san francisco san mateo santa...
TRANSCRIPT
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Summary of Accomplishments for FEMA Region IX CCAMP Open Pacific Coast
F7: Coastal Mapping- Future Conditions & Sea Level Rise
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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2
Welcome and Introductions
FEMA Region IX Ed Curtis – Regional Engineer
Production and Technical Services (PTS) contractor: BakerAECOMDarryl Hatheway – Technical Lead
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3
Presentation Goals
• Summary of Accomplishment for CA Coastal Analysis and
Mapping Project Open Pacific Coast (CCAMP OPC)
• CCAMP OPC – Overview
• What’s new
• New Data Acquisition
• New Detailed Analyses & Pilot Studies
• Mapping Production
• Challenges
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Re-study flood risk
along the open coast
and inland bays of all
California coastal
counties
Re-map the elevation
and inland extent of
wave-induced coastal
flooding
www.r9coastal.org
CCAMP OPC - Overview
Two Companion Large-Scale Efforts:
• San Francisco Bay Area Coastal Study
• Open Pacific Coast Study
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CCAMP OPC – Phases 1 & 2Del Norte
Humboldt
Mendocino
Sonoma
Marin
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Cruz
Monterey
San Luis Obispo
Santa Barbara
Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange
San Diego
Phase 1 (2010)
Ten Counties
Northern and Central
California Coast
Phase 2 (2012)
Five Counties
Southern
California Coast
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Study Miles & Panels: Phase 1 No. CA(approx. 800 miles of coast)
6
Phase 1 County
Open Pacific
Coast
(study miles)
FIS
Effective
Date for
Coastal
Study
Pacific Coast
Map Panels
w/ Coastal
Influence
Coastal-
Riverine
Flood Profile
Confluence
Coastal SFHA
(Sq. Miles)
Del Norte 50 09/26/08 15 1 20
Humboldt 160 02/08/99 38 5 81
Mendocino 110 06/16/92 14 1 2
Sonoma 60 09/06/06 5 1 0
Marin 100 05/05/97 28 5 27
San Francisco 15 n/a 2 0 2
San Mateo 60 08/05/86 13 5 9
Santa Cruz 40 03/02/06 27 10 2
Monterey 105 09/27/91 25 5 2
San Luis Obispo 100 02/04/04 32 9 3
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Study Miles & Panels: Phase 2 So. CA(approx. 535 miles of coast)
7
Phase 2 County
Open Pacific
Coast
(study miles)
FIS Effective
Date for
Coastal
Study
Pacific Coast
Map Panels
w/ Coastal
Influence
Coastal-
Riverine
Flood Profile
Confluence
Coastal SFHA
(Sq. Miles)
Santa Barbara 120 09/30/05 35 7 3
Ventura 50 09/03/97 18 2 2
Los Angeles 155 07/06/98 48 7 6
Orange 50 02/18/04 32 9 5
San Diego 160 09/29/06 50 13 4
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What is Different – New Processes
Discovery Meeting
County Study Kick-
off
Issue Letter of Final Determination (LFD)
Proposed Flood Hazard
Determinations | Appeal Period
Flood Risk Review Meeting
Discuss coastal analysis
and review draft work maps
Preliminary FIRM/
CCO Meeting
Resilience Workshop
Implement actions to
mitigate or reduce
coastal flood risks
Data
Acquisition
Coastal
Analysis
Floodplain
Mapping
Prelim. Map
Production
Post Prelim
Process
Implement
Outreach Plan
Work Map
Comment Tool
Provide
Study Data
Develop Community
Outreach Plan
Outreach Timeline | Open Pacific Coast Study
Map Production Timeline | Typical Coastal Flood Study
Effective Maps
Physical Map Revision (PMR)
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8
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Apply “Final Draft Guidelines
for Coastal Flood hazard
Analysis and Mapping for the
Pacific Coast of the United
States”(dated Jan. 2005)
• Developed by FEMA with help
from 50 Coastal Experts
• First Wide-Scale Implementation
in CCAMP OPC
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,355 miles of new LIDAR
from CA OPC
10,000 oblique images
(CA Records Project)
Offshore Wave 50-yr Hindcast
from OWI (1960-2010)
Nearshore Waves 50-yr
Hindcast from Scripps (CDIP)
Tide Frequency Analysis
from NOAA Gage Data
CDIP Wave Transformation to
MOP for hourly tide/wave data
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Coastal Data:LIDAR (CA OPC)
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Coastal Data:LIDAR (CA OPC)
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,355 miles of new LIDAR
from CA OPC
10,000 oblique images
(CA Records Project)
Offshore Wave 50-yr Hindcast
from OWI (1960-2010)
Nearshore Waves 50-yr
Hindcast from Scripps (CDIP)
Tide Frequency Analysis
from NOAA Gage Data
CDIP Wave Transformation to
MOP for hourly tide/wave data
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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CA Coastal Records Project
http://www.californiacoastline.org/
Photography and website Copyright ©
2002-2010 Kenneth & Gabrielle
Adelman
Coastal Data:10,000 Oblique Photos
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,355 miles of new LIDAR
from CA OPC
10,000 oblique images
(CA Records Project)
Offshore Wave 50-yr Hindcast
from OWI (1960-2010)
Nearshore Waves 50-yr
Hindcast from Scripps (CDIP)
Tide Frequency Analysis
from NOAA Gage Data
CDIP Wave Transformation to
MOP for hourly tide/wave data
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Deepwater Waves (OWI)
16ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,355 miles of new LIDAR
from CA OPC
10,000 oblique images
(CA Records Project)
Offshore Wave 50-yr Hindcast
from OWI (1960-2010)
Nearshore Waves 50-yr
Hindcast from Scripps (CDIP)
Tide Frequency Analysis
from NOAA Gage Data
CDIP Wave Transformation to
MOP for hourly tide/wave data
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Nearshore Waves(Scripps)
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Nearshore Waves(Scripps)
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,355 miles of new LIDAR
from CA OPC
10,000 oblique images
(CA Records Project)
Offshore Wave 50-yr Hindcast
from OWI (1960-2010)
Nearshore Waves 50-yr
Hindcast from Scripps (CDIP)
Tide Frequency Analysis
from NOAA Gage Data
CDIP Wave Transformation to
MOP for hourly tide/wave data
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Coastal Data:Tides (NOAA CO-Ops)
21ASFPM June 20, 2018
18 NOAA gages w/
> 13 yr of record
from Mexico to
Oregon
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1,355 miles of new LIDAR
from CA OPC
10,000 oblique images
(CA Records Project)
Offshore Wave 50-yr Hindcast
from OWI (1960-2010)
Nearshore Waves 50-yr
Hindcast from Scripps (CDIP)
Tide Frequency Analysis
from NOAA Gage Data
CDIP Wave Transformation to
MOP for hourly tide/wave data
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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:
MOP Nearshore
Wave Prediction Sites (Scripps)
ASFPM June 20, 2018
438,000 hourly tide +
wave combinations used
at each MOP data point
(transect) from 1960 to
2010 used for TWL
analysis. CA coast has
over 500 million data
points.
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1,139 Transects Used
in 1-D Detailed Analysis
Analysis of Key
Coastal Processes
12 Harbor Breakwater
Overtopping Assessments
Pilot Study Probabilistic
Tsunami Hazards
Pilot Study of Sea Level Rise
at San Francisco
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pilot Study: Wave Runup
Depth-Velocity Grids
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1-D Coastal Analysisfor 1,139 transects
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• Wave Setup
• Wave Runup
• Wave Overtopping
• Overland Waves
• Dune & Bluff Erosion
ASFPM June 20, 2018
For 15 Phase 1 & 2
counties, there are 1,139
transects used for wave
analyses and erosion
assessments.
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1,139 Transects Used
in 1-D Detailed Analysis
Analysis of Key
Coastal Processes
12 Harbor Breakwater
Overtopping Assessments
Pilot Study Probabilistic
Tsunami Hazards
Pilot Study of Sea Level Rise
at San Francisco
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pilot Study: Wave Runup
Depth-Velocity Grids
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Detailed Analysis: Total Water Levels
Components of the total water level (TWL)
Astronomical tide (predicted tide): 5-7 ft
Surge components: atmospheric pressure, wind
setup, El Niño sea level effects: 1-4 ft
Wave components: wave setup + runup: 10-40 ft
Wave RunupDynamic Water
Level (DWL)
Overtopping
Wave Setup
Surge
Stillwater Level
(SWL)
Total Water
Level (TWL)SWL = Tide + surge (no wave effects)
TWL = SWL + setup + runup
Tide Level
Datum
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,139 Transects Used
in 1-D Detailed Analysis
Analysis of Key
Coastal Processes
12 Harbor Breakwater
Overtopping Assessments
Pilot Study Probabilistic
Tsunami Hazards
Pilot Study of Sea Level Rise
at San Francisco
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pilot Study: Wave Runup
Depth-Velocity Grids
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Coastal Analysis Results
1% SWEL = 8.0 ft NAVD
0.2% SWEL = 8.4 ft NAVD
1% Runup (TWL) = 23.4 (intact only) ft NAVD
0.2% Runup (TWL ) = 26.4 (intact only) ft NAVD
Overtopping distance from crest = 44.7 ft (intact only)
King Harbor Yacht Club
VE (EL 23)
79
Detailed Analysis: Harbor Breakwaters
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,139 Transects Used
in 1-D Detailed Analysis
Analysis of Key
Coastal Processes
12 Harbor Breakwater
Overtopping Assessments
Pilot Study of Wave Runup
Depth-Velocity Grid
Pilot Study Probabilistic
Tsunami Hazards
Pilot Study of Sea Level Rise
at San Francisco
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Special Projects: Wave RunupDepth & Velocity Grid
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Water Level Physical Components
SWL Astronomical Tides, Storm Surge, El Niño Processes
StWL SWL + ζ
DWLStWL + ξ
(SWL + ζ + ξ)
TWLDWL +R
(SWL + ζ + ξ + R)
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Hydrodynamic forces can overturn walls, damage structural components,
and scour foundations
The forces are a function of both Depth (d) and Velocity (V)
The forces can be approximated by Depth x Velocity (dV) and Depth x
Velocity Squared (dV2)
Depth (d)Force
(dV or dV2)
Velocity (V)
Special Projects: Wave RunupDepth & Velocity Grid
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FEMA developed Flood Severity Categories for flood depth
and velocity data
Allow communities to readily identify areas that are most at
risk
Flood Severity Category Depth Range (ft)Depth x Velocity Range
(ft2/sec)
Low < 0.5 < 2.2
Medium 0.5 – 1.0 2.2 – 5.4
High 1.0 – 2.0 5.4 – 16.1
Very High 2.0 – 2.8 16.1 – 26.9
Extreme > 2.8 > 26.9
Special Projects: Wave RunupDepth & Velocity Grid
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One potential method is to calculate depths and velocities using this
constant TWL elevation
Although TWL is constant, depths and velocities vary across the beach
Wave RunupDynamic Water
Level (DWL)
Wave Setup
Surge
Stillwater Level
(SWL)
Total Water Level = constant TWL mapped on
FIRM
Tide Level
Datum
Special Projects: Wave RunupDepth & Velocity Grid
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In reality, TWL varies across the beach and backshore
Another method is to use FEMA Guidelines equations to calculate the TWL up
the beach and then calculate depths and velocities
The method accurately captures TWL variation across beach
Does not overestimate depths and velocities across beach
BakerAECOM developed new analysis approach
Wave RunupDynamic Water
Level (DWL)
Wave Setup
Surge
Stillwater Level
(SWL)
Total Water Level = constant TWL mapped on
FIRM
Tide Level
Datum
Special Projects: Wave RunupDepth & Velocity Grid
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Depth x Velocity
Constant TWL
Depth x Velocity
Varying TWL
Special Projects: Wave RunupDepth & Velocity Grid
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1,139 Transects Used
in 1-D Detailed Analysis
Analysis of Key
Coastal Processes
12 Harbor Breakwater
Overtopping Assessments
Pilot Study: Wave Runup
Depth-Velocity Grids
Pilot Study Probabilistic
Tsunami Hazards
Pilot Study of Sea Level Rise
at San Francisco
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Special Projects: PTHA w/ UW in Crescent City (Del Norte Co)
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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1,139 Transects Used
in 1-D Detailed Analysis
Analysis of Key
Coastal Processes
12 Harbor Breakwater
Overtopping Assessments
Pilot Study Probabilistic
Tsunami Hazards
Pilot Study of Sea Level Rise
at San Francisco
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pilot Study: Wave Runup
Depth-Velocity Grids
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Pilot Study: San Francisco & SLR
Offshore Waves
Water Levels
Wave Transformations
Wave Setup
Wave Runup
Overtopping
Nearshore Waves
Erosion
Coastal
Structures
TWL
Offshore Zone
Shoaling Zone
Surf Zone
and BackshoreOverland Wave Propagation
(if necessary)
Offshore Waves
Water Levels
Wave Transformations
Wave Setup
Wave Runup
Overtopping
Nearshore Waves
Erosion
Coastal
Structures
TWL
Overland Wave Propagation(if necessary)
Flood Hazard Mapping
Linear Superposition
+
SLR
+
SLR
Direct Analysis
Flood Hazard Mapping
Assume
negligible
SLR effect
TWLSLR = TWL + SLR TWLSLR > TWL + SLR
Shoreline
Change &
Profile
Adjustment
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Trial Run Methods and ResultsSloat Blvd – Armored Low Bluff
Coastal Analysis Results
(Existing Conditions)
1% SWEL = 9.0 ft NAVD
0.2% SWEL = 9.7 ft NAVD
1% Runup (TWL) = 26 ft NAVD
0.2% Runup (TWL ) = 27 ft NAVD
No overtopping under existing conditions
Crest at 30-31 ft NAVD
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pilot Study: San Francisco & SLR
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TWL response to SLR
(ex. cond./24”/66”)
Existing conditions:
peak TWL is ~5 ft below
crest
24” SLR: peak TWL is
~1-2 ft below crest
66” SLR: many TWL
events exceed crest
TWL results exhibit
non-linear response to
SLR
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pilot Study: San Francisco & SLRTrial Run Methods and ResultsSloat Blvd – Armored Low Bluff
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BFE increase greatly exceeds the linear superposition rate (by a factor of ~2)
Wave runup feedback important at this transect
Overtopping occurs at much lower SLR under direct analysis vs. linear superposition method
Linear Superposition vs. Direct AnalysisSloat Blvd – Armored Low Bluff
SLR (ft) ΔBFE (ft) BFE (ft)
0 - 25.6
1.0 2.2 27.8
2.0 4.3 29.9
3.0 6.3 31.9
4.0 9.6 35.2
5.5 12.9 38.5
1% TWL Current +24 in +66 in
Linear 25.6 ft 27.6 ft 31.1 ft
Direct 25.6 ft 29.9 ft 38.5 ft
Linear SuperpositionDirect Analysis
Pilot Study: San Francisco & SLR
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Key Concepts – Direct Analysis Response
Static profile (no shoreline retreat) exhibits direct analysis behavior
Shoreline retreatmitigates impact of SLR as shoreline adjusts to new equilibrium position
Profile erodibility/armoring dictates TWL behavior: direct analysis vs. linear superposition
Bluffs, sandy beaches, and structures will exhibit different responses
Low erodibility
High erodibility
Sea level rise
Ch
an
ge
in
BF
E
Moderate erodibility
Non-erodible bluffs
Structures
Sandy beaches
Erodible bluffs
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pilot Study: San Francisco & SLR
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Wave Overtopping AO Zones
Challenges
Number of Communities
Impacted by SFHA
ASFPM June 20, 2018
San Diego Bay 2-D Surge/Wave
Modeling for 50-yr Hindcast
Primary Frontal Dune
VE Zone Mapping
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Special Projects: 2-D Modeling of San Diego Bay w/ DHI
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Wave Overtopping AO Zones
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Primary Frontal Dune
VE Zone Mapping
San Diego Bay 2-D Surge/Wave
Modeling for 50-yr Hindcast
Number of Communities
Impacted by SFHA
Challenges
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Primary Frontal Dune VE Zones
100-year SWEL
Mean sea level
540 ft2
eroded
VE ZoneX Zone
Landward
toe of dune
REGULATED SINCE 1988
Landward limit of storm-
induced erosion
Wave Crest Profile
PFD Area VE Zone Erosion VE Zone
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Pajaro Dunes,
Santa Cruz Co
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Wave Overtopping AO Zones
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Primary Frontal Dune
VE Zone Mapping
San Diego Bay 2-D Surge/Wave
Modeling for 50-yr Hindcast
Number of Communities
Impacted by SFHA
Challenges
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Coastal Analysis Results
1% SWEL = 8.0 ft NAVD
0.2% SWEL = 8.4 ft NAVD
1% Runup (TWL) = 31 ft (failed) or 21 (intact) ft NAVD
0.2% Runup (TWL ) = 37 ft (failed) or 25 (intact) ft
NAVD
Overtopping distance from crest = 34 ft (intact) or 26
ft (failed)
Broad Beach
Increase
11
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Malibu, Los Angeles Co
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Wave Overtopping AO Zones
Number of Communities
Impacted by Map Revisions
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Primary Frontal Dune
VE Zone Mapping
San Diego Bay 2-D Surge/Wave
Modeling for 50-yr Hindcast
Challenges
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Geographic Coverage and Impacts
The coastal study and hazard mapping included 15 coastal counties
Phase 1:
for the 10 counties (in Northern and Central CA) CCAMP OPC
covered 958 miles of detailed analyses,
impacting 220 FIRM panel revisions
in 31 communities.
Phase 2:
for the 5 counties (in Southern CA) CCAMP OPC covered 529 miles
of detailed analyses,
impacting 180 FIRM panel revisions
in 47 communities.
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Achievements in Map Production
The CCAMP OPC and CCAMP BAC (in
San Francisco Bay Area) studies are
being used to create the first ever San
Francisco City/County FIRM and FIS;
Study is still preliminary but soon to
be adopted and effective.
ASFPM June 20, 2018
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Wave Overtopping AO Zones
Number of Communities
Impacted by Map Revisions
ASFPM June 20, 2018
Primary Frontal Dune
VE Zone Mapping
San Diego Bay 2-D Surge/Wave
Modeling for 50-yr Hindcast
Challenges
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Challenges/Lessons Learned
55FMA September 7, 2011
• Access
• Safety
• Local knowledgeWANTED
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Questions?