Subtask C: Collaboration with IEA HQ Analytics

Kari Aamodt EspegrenInstitute for Energy Technology (IFE), Kjeller, Norway

Meeting in HIA Annex 30 Global Energy Systems Analysis Jülich, 16-17 September 2010

Sept. 2010 2

Collaboration with IEA HQ Analytics

1. Comparison of input data to energy modelling

2. Subtask C: Collaboration with IEA HQ Analytics• Overview – objectives and proposed approach• Input data required• Cross-border collaborations• Group discussion• Planning session – tasking, timing, deliverables• Next steps

Sept. 2010 3

Comparison of input data for energy system modelling

Sept. 2010 4

Relative investment cost compared to gasoline ICE in 2030

0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,0

El. battery

Plug in hybrid -gasoline

Plug in hybrid - H2

Diesel

Diesel - hybrid

E85

Gasoline

Gasoline - hybrid

Hydrogen ICE

Hydrogen ICE - hybrid

Hydrogen FCV

Hydrogen FCV -hybrid

CNG

CNG - hybrid

IEA (2009)

US EPA (2007)

Klimakur(2010)

Tseng (2005)

Krzyzanowski(2008)

Endo (2007)

IER (2009)

IFE (2008)

Sept. 2010 5

Example of relative investment cost for H2 vehicles compared to gasoline ICE in 2030

1,00

1,05

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

1,40

1,45

Hydrogen ICE Hydrogen FCV Hydrogen FCV -hybrid

IFE (2008)

IER (2009)

Endo (2007)

Krzyzanowski(2008)Tseng (2005)

Klimakur (2010)

US EPA (2007)

IEA (2009)

Sept. 2010 6

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

El. ba

ttery

Plug

in h

ybrid

- ga

solin

e

Plug

in h

ybrid

- H2

Biodie

sel

Biodie

sel -

hyb

rid

Diese

l

Diese

l - h

ybrid E85

E85 -

hybrid

Gas

oline

Gas

oline

- hy

brid

Hydro

gen IC

E

Hydro

gen IC

E - hy

brid

Hydro

gen F

CV

Hydro

gen F

CV - hy

brid

CNG

CNG - h

ybrid

IFE

IER

Endo

Krzyzanow ski

Tseng

Comparison of efficiency ratio

Sept. 2010 7

Sept. 2010 8

Collaboration with IEA HQ Analytics

• Overview – objectives and proposed approach• Input data required• Cross-border collaborations• Group discussion• Planning session – tasking, timing, deliverables• Next steps

Sept. 2010 9

Objective of Subtask C

• Cooperate with IEA HQ to be able to establish a common platform/interface with reliable data

Cooperation will be based on:• Knowledge• References, sources of information • Dialog • Open – transparent

Sept. 2010 10

IEA analytic reports

• World Energy Outlook, which goes to 2030

• Energy Technology Perspectives, builds on the WEO and goes to 2050.  

Sept. 2010 11

Description of the work in 7 steps

1. Subtask C leader + selected team of experts will meet the HQ experts• Understand the working process of producing WEO and

ETP• Clarify how decisions are made on technologies to be

included in reports, how technologies are introduced and how data is managed.

2. Subtask C leader and experts will discuss with subtask B leader• Data format and updates

Sept. 2010 12

Description of the work in 7 steps

3. Gap analysis and data evaluation• Compare data from HQ experts and Subtask B to find H2

resources and H2 technologies that match each other and where differences exist

• Data evaluation (same or different data source?)• Specify which data from subtask B need to be adapted

4. Subtask C leader and experts will draft two proposals:• Collaboration process proposal (Describes how HIA and

HQ experts could cooperate)• Data management proposal

Sept. 2010 13

Description of the work in 7 steps

5. Separate meetings with representatives from HIA ExCo, subtask B leader and HQ experts• Review the collaboration process proposal and the data

management proposal

6. Subtask C team of experts will revise the collaboration process and the data management proposal• Consider all criticism

• Describe a unified picture

7. A common meeting with HIA ExCo, the leaders of subtask A, B and C and the HQ experts will review the revision and decide on final version. Differences will be clarified.

Sept. 2010 14

Contact with IEA

WEO• Contact: Ms. Maria Argiri (presented at the Analysis

Definition Meeting last November in Seville)

• Meeting between November and April-May. We would propose a meeting in November/December this year.

Sept. 2010 15

Contact with IEA, cont.ETP• Contacts: Dr. Uwe Remme, Dr. Lew Fulton and Mr.

David Elzinga

• Dr. Fulton: Transport, Energy and CO2  report.• An updated version of the database originally used to produce

Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells.

• Division Head Mr. Taylor expects to hire a new lead modeler (replace Dolf Gielen) - expected to start work early in 2011. Subtask C will meet with the new modeler. 

Sept. 2010 16

The expected outcome of Task 30

• Work products will include authoritative, refereed journal articles

• Traditional IEA subtask and task reports • Update IEA “Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells,”

report (with input from other Annexes or Tasks) • Collaboration with IEA products: World Energy

Outlook (WEO) & Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP)

• Private and public Task websites

Sept. 2010 17

Draft schedule

Sept. 2010 18

Group discussion• We need a group of experts

• Who will contribute?

• Where do we start? What are most important?• Resource availability?• Technology development?• Transportation or stationary applications?

• Milestones and deliverables• Meetings with IEA HQ• Subtask C meetings• Meeting with Subtask B leader