Sub-Saharan AfricaClass 1

Approximately 600 million people

IndicatorEast Asia &

PacificLatin

America &Caribbean

Middle East& NorthAfrica

South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

Total Population, 1996(millions)

1,732 486 276 1,266 596

Per capita GNP, 1996 (PPP) $3,370 $6,530 $4,530 $1,520 $1,450Per Capita GNP Growth,

1965-96 (annual averagepercent)

5.5 1.1 -1.8 2.2 -0.2

Life expectancy at birth, men,1996

67 66 66 61 51

Life expectancy at birth,women, 1996

70 73 68 63 54

Infant mortality per 1,000 livebirths, 1996

39 33 50 73 91

Infant mortality per 1,000 livebirths, 1970

79 84 134 139 137

Under 5 mortality per 1,000,1996

47 41 63 93 147

Under 5 mortality per 1,000,1980

75 82 141 174 193

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Angola

Burkina Faso

Central African Rep

Congo

Gambia, The

Guinea-Bissau

Madagascar

Mozambique

Nigeria

Sierra Leone

Uganda

1996 per capita GNP (PPP)

South Africa

Namibia

Gabon

Botswana

annual p

er

capita

incom

e c

hange 1

965-9

6

-4.0 - -3.0

-3.0 - -2.0

-2.0 - -1.0

-1.0 - 0.0

0.0 - 1.0

1.0 - 2.0

2.0 - 3.0

3.0 - 4.0

4.0 - 5.0

5.0 - 6.0

6.0 - 7.0

7.0 - 8.0

8.0 - 9.0

9.0 - 10.0

121086420

Std. Dev = 2.23

Mean = .2

N = 29.00

Annual per capita GNP Growth rates, 1965-96

Botswana

Lesotho

ECONOMIC GROWTH BY MAJOR DEVELOPING REGION, 1965-89.

GROWTH OF REAL PER CAPITA GDP1965-73 1973-80 1980-89

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 3.2 0.1 -2.2EAST ASIA 5.1 4.7 6.7SOUTH ASIA 1.2 1.7 3.2EASTERN EUROPE 4.8 5.3 6.8MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA 5.5 2.1 0.8LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN 3.7 2.6 -0.6Auty 1995:31.

Per capita GNP--average annual growth 1985-94.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA -1.2EAST ASIA 6.9SOUTH ASIA 2.7EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA -3.2MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA -0.4LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN 0.6

-2

0

2

4

6

1820-70

1913-50

1970-92

1820-70 1870-1913 1913-50 1950-70 1970-92

Economic Growth by Major Region, 1820-1992 (percent per year)

0 10 20 30 40 50

Angola

Burkina Faso

Central Afr. Rep.

Gambia, The

Kenya

Mozambique

Rwanda

Tanzania

Zambia

1990-96

Percent children (under 5) malnourished, 1990-96

Agricultural decline

Food security problem Drought conditions of early 1970s

within Sahel demonstrated:– no reserve productive capacity– no financial capacity to import

significant food Food security problem actually

began in 1960s

Decline of export-oriented agriculture

Significance– demonstrates declines in per

capita food production are not just due to substitution of export-oriented crops

– most countries are seriously dependent on these commodities for export earnings

Marginalization in world trade

1950---3.1% of global exports 1990---1.2% of global exports (implied annual trade loss of

$65 billion in 1990)

Ng and Yeats. 1997. Open economies work

better... Close look at export trends

between 1962-64 and 1991-93 to OECD countries (3 year averages)

to overcome trade data problems for African countries

OECD countries account for approx. 82% of all African exports

Central questions

What happened to demand for the traditional exports of the region over time?

What happened to the competitive position of the region as exporters of these products over time?

How well was the region able to diversify its exports over time?

Factor influence on current exports(% change)Country group

Demand CompetitionAll Sub-Saharan Africa 572.1 -41.7Low income Asia 778.6 383.4Middle income Asia 740.1 724.9Latin America/Carib 658.5 77.7North Africa 1058.4 -19.1Middle East 1020.8 36.7Other Europe and Asia 1386.4 30.7

Impact of demand and competition on Sub-Saharan African and other regions’

exports, 1962-64 to 1991-93

Percent share of 3 largest products in totalexports

Country Group

1962-64 1991-93All Sub-Saharan Africa 36.5 62.3Low income Asia 30.4 34.5Middle income Asia 38.5 30.8North Africa 63.0 68.7Latin America/Carib 38.9 23.8Middle East 92.0 91.0Other Europe and Asia 26.1 25.6

Export diversification by region, 1962-64 and 1991-93

Alternative Perspectives on Poor Economic

PerformanceDemographic factorsEnvironmental factorsExternal factors--

relationships with developed economies

internal policy factors

1. Demographic Factors

Rapid population growth–2.6 percent per year--1950-1995–doubling time of 27 years

attributable to declining mortality and continued high fertility (delayed demographic transition)– TFRs from 4.1 to 7.4 well above

replacement levels

Reasons for high fertility

Low level of contraceptive use

high level of “wanted” fertility rates

Factors underlying high “wanted” fertility rates

Source of old age insurance important source of labor in rural settings various social structures promote high fertility

– children are often raised in other households which reduces costs of raising

– communal-based land tenure systems with land distributed according to family “need”

– polygyny with each wife and her children forming a discrete economic unit

Economic consequences of rapid

population growth Age structure skewed toward young ages

– working age population is only half of total population compared to 60-70% elsewhere

reduces labor force participation, productivity and savings

high burden of providing basic education– data suggest primary school enrollment rates

fell from 1980 to 1993

Excessive pressure on agricultural resource base leading to degradation of the resource base

2. Environmental Factors

Good source:–Bloom and Sachs. 1998.

Geography, demography and economic growth in Africa, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2:207-295.

1. Tropical environment and agricultural productivity

Unfavorable soil-water balance (precipitation - potential evapotranspiration) creates problems of aridity and drought in various regions

lack of variation in day-length and lack of dry season create induction of flowering problem for many temperate-zone species in humid tropics

Basic biological factors limit agricultural yields of other species– concept of net photosynthesis

(energy net of the energy plant uses to stay alive)

–where temperatures remain very high at night losses of net photosynthetic potential are especially high

Problem of tropical soils– High precipitation leaches nutrients– makes permanent agriculture

difficult

veterinary disease vectors– lack of cold weather barriers to

vector reproduction and survival

plant pests--e.g. locustscrop damage due to massive

rodent populations

2. Tropical environment and infectious disease

Very high burdens of infectious and parasitic diseases– account for 42.5% of lost Disability-

Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)– Compare

India--28.9% Western Europe--2.8%

Traditional problem--Malaria

Caused by the protozoan plasmodium transmitted by anopheles mosquito

disease ecology depends on– density of mosquitoes relative to humans– mosquito longevity relative to life cycle of

plasmodium key variable: latency period of

plasmodium in mosquito relative to life span of mosquito

Economic costs of malaria

Medical care costs for the individual--medicines, treatment fees, transportation, bednets, insecticides etc.

public health expenditures loss of productivity due to illness and care of the sick impacts on long-term cognitive performance constraints on technical diffusion, foreign investment

and population exchange (including tourism) in endemic malarial regions

Strategy to avoid malaria?

Settlement and development in tropical highland areas

Problem--generally distant from coastline– result is high transportation

costs poor transport systems

Contemporary late 20th C problem--HIV/AIDS