study project med-csp concentrating solar power for the mediterranean region
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NREA. Study Project MED-CSP Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). Bringing Renewable Energies to Work - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Study Project MED-CSP
Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region
Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)
IFEED
NREA
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Bringing Renewable Energies to Work
Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
Power Demand Assessment
Sustainable National Energy Scenarios
National Guidelines to Initiate and Follow that Path
Data Base for Decision Making
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Countries analysed within the MED-CSP Study and total EU-MENA Region
Southern Europe
Western Asia
Arabian Peninsula
North Africa
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Sustainability Dynamic Stability
“development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” /Brundtland 1987/
What we need: What we have:
Environmental Sustainability Environmental Damages
Economical Sustainability Increasing Subsidies
Social Sustainability Increasing Conflicts
Institutional Sustainability Insufficient Policies
MED-CSPMED-CSP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
World Spain Portugal Morocco Spain, Portugal+ Morocco
EU15
t CO
2/ca
pita
19902002Obligation 2008-2012 (EU)Obligation Industrialized Countries 2020 (Proposal WBGU, 2003)
World wide obligationin 2050 (proposed byWBGU, 2003)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
World Spain Portugal Morocco Spain, Portugal+ Morocco
EU15
t CO
2/ca
pita
19902002Obligation 2008-2012 (EU)Obligation Industrialized Countries 2020 (Proposal WBGU, 2003)
World wide obligationin 2050 (proposed byWBGU, 2003)
Environmental Sustainability Challenge: Climate Change
MED-CSPMED-CSP
2002
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
Year
1990
GH
G E
mis
sion
s = 1
00
Business asusual
with existingpolicies
with additionalpolicies
Kyoto targetpath
Institutional Sustainability Challenge: Greenhouse gas emissions until 2002 and projections until 2010 indicate Insufficient Policies even in the EU 15
MED-CSPMED-CSPSocial Sustainability Challenge: Growing Electricity Demand in MENA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Gro
ss E
lect
ricity
Con
sum
ptio
n TW
h/a
TurkeySpainPortugalMaltaItalyGreeceTunisiaMoroccoLibyaEgyptAlgeriaYemenUAESyriaSaudi ArabiaQatarOmanLebanonKuwaitJordanIsraelIraqIranCyprusBahrain
Scenario Closing the Gap / High Efficiency
Historical Data
First Slowdown: Efficiency Gains & Liberalisation
Second Slowdown: Demand Stabilisation
MED-CSPMED-CSPDriving Force Population Growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
[mill
ion]
North AfricaWestern AsiaArabian PeninsulaSouthern Europe
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Year
Popu
latio
n [m
illio
ns]
UrbanRural
Source: United Nations Intermediate Growth Scenario /FAO 2004/
MED-CSPMED-CSPDriving Forces: Growth of Economy. Closing the Gap of per Capita GDP with USA by 2050 by 50%
Southern Europe (CG/HE)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Malta
Greece
Cyprus
Average GDP Growth Rates 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
Arabian Peninsula (CG/HE)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Oman
Kuwait
Qatar
Saudi-Arabia
UAE
Yemen
Bahrain
Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
Western Asia (CG/HE)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Israel
Jordan
Lebanon
Syria
Turkey
Iraq
Iran
Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
North Africa (CG/HE)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Morocco
Algeria
Tunesia
Libya
Egypt
Average GDP Growth Rate 2003 - 2050 [%/cap/y]
MED-CSPMED-CSP Driving Force Economic Growth:Correlation and Extrapolation of Total Final Electricity Consumption per capita and GDP per capita for a Sample of 25 (150) Countries
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1 10 100
1960
19802000
20202040
Ele
ctric
ity/C
apita
[kW
h/ca
p]
GDP/Capita [1000 US$ 1996 PPP]
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Per Capita Power Consumption in EU-MENA in the MED-CSP Scenario
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Year
Elec
tric
ity D
eman
d [k
Wh/
capi
ta/y
]
North Africa
Western Asia
Arabian Peninsula
Southern EuropeanCountries
MED-CSPMED-CSP
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Fres
hwat
er D
eman
d [B
m³/y
]
IranIraqSyriaTurkeyLebanonJordanIsraelKuwaitYemenUAEBahrainSaudi ArabiaQatarOmanMoroccoLibyaTunisiaEgypt Algeria
Social Sustainability Challenge: Growing Freshwater Demand in the MENA countries
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Social Sustainability Challenge:Agriculture vs. Industrial Development in MENA
Water Demand in MENA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Year
Fres
hwat
er D
eman
d [b
illio
n m
³/y]
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Agricultural Domestic Industrial Sustainable Water
grows with population
growths with GDP
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Population in Egypt
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Popu
latio
n [m
illio
ns]
UrbanRural
Water Demand in Egypt
Agricultural
DomesticIndustrial
Sustainable Water
020406080
100120140160180
20002005
20102015
20202025
20302035
20402045
2050
Wat
er D
eman
d [b
illio
n m
³/y]
0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Groundwater w ithdrawals as percentage of safe yield
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
Cyprus
Morocco
Tunisia
Algeria
Oman
UAE
Syria
Yemen
J ordan
Bahrain
Gaza
Qatar
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia 1456%
1275%
Source: Saghiri 2003
Social & Environmental Sustainability Challenge: Growing Freshwater Deficits
MED-CSPMED-CSP
cent
/kW
h
additionalexternalsocietal cost
desirable
cost of CO2-sequestration
Economic Sustainability Challenge: Cost of Electricity from Nuclear Energy, Coal & Gas
MED-CSPMED-CSP
b) Municipal Sector
Economic Sustainability Challenge:Water pricing in the MENA Region /Saghir 2003/
a) Irrigation Sector0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Cyprus Algeria Tunisia J ordan
Average Production CostAverage Price
Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Cyprus Algeria Tunisia J ordan
Average Production CostAverage Price
Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Cyprus(Nicosia)
Algeria J ordan Tunisia Morocco Turkey(Bursi)
Malta
Average Production CostAverage Price
Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Cyprus(Nicosia)
Algeria J ordan Tunisia Morocco Turkey(Bursi)
Malta
Average Production CostAverage Price
Source: SARs and BORs. The World Bank
Dol
lars
per
cub
ic m
eter
Dol
lars
per
cub
ic
met
er
desirable long term cost level
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Economic Sustainability Challenge:
MED-CSPMED-CSPEconomic Sustainability Challenge:
Coal Price Index in $/ton
06.2001 06.200406.2002 06.2003
Source: globalCOAL
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Source: cameco
Economic Sustainability Challenge:
Uranium Price Index in $/lb
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Guidelines for Sustainability in the Energy Sector. satisfied
Equality of access no
Conservation of resources no
Compatibility with environment, climate and health no
Social compatibility ltd.
Low risk and high error tolerance ltd.
Comprehensive economic efficiency no
Meet the need of supply at any time ltd.
International co-operation ltd.
Source: BMU
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Main Results of the MED-CSP Demand Assessment
The present energy system is not sustainable and will lead to a critical situation in terms of economical, social and environmental stability.
The demand for energy will grow by three times until 2050, water demand will almost double in the EU-MENA region.
Fossil and nuclear energy sources have triggered economic development in the North Western Hemisphere, but do not have the capacity to do the same for the rest of the world.
MED-CSPMED-CSP
MED-CSP Team
German Aerospace Center (DLR) Dr. Franz Trieb, Dr. Christoph Schillings, Stefan Kronshage, Dr. Uwe Klann, Dr. Peter Viebahn, Nadine May, Regina Wilde, Christian Paul, Stuttgart, Germany National Energy Research Center (NERC) Eng. Malek Kabariti, Amman, Jordan
Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique (CNRST) Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna, Rabat, Morocco
Nokraschy Engineering GmbH (NE)Dr. Ing. Hani El Nokraschy, Holm, Germany
New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA)Ms. Laila Georgy Yussef, Cairo, Egypt
New Energy Algeria (NEAL) Tewfik Hasni, Alger, Algeria
Internationales Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien e.V. (IFEED)Dr. Nasir El Bassam, Braunschweig, Germany
Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA)Honorat Satoguina, Hamburg, Germany
MED-CSPMED-CSP
Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region
WP0: Introduction
WP1: Sustainability Goals
WP2: Renewable Energy Technologies
WP3: Renewable Energy Resources
WP4: Demand Side Analysis
WP5: Scenario for Energy and Water Security
WP6: Socio-Economical Impacts
WP7: Environmental Impacts
WP8: Policy Instruments
WP9: Bibliography
WP10: Annex with Country Data
Downloads at: http://www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp