structuredanalytictechniquesinaction

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SUB Hamburg

A 570761

Cases in

Intelligence Analysis

Structured Analytic Techniques in Action

Sarah Miller Beebe and Rand olph H Phe rson

®SAGE | •

Q P R S S

Los Angeles London | New Delhi

Singapore I Washington DC


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Brief Contents

Annotated Contents xi

Tables, Figures, and Boxes xvii

Matrix of Techniques xx

Foreword xxiii

BY ROBERT JERVIS, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

Preface xxix

About the Authors xxxiii

Introduction 1

1 W H O P O I S O N E D K A R I N N A M O S K A L E N K O ? 7

Case Narrative 7

W ho Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Structured Analytic

Techniques in Action 16

2 I s W E N H O L E E A S P Y ? 21

Case Narrative 21

Is Wen

Ho Lee a

Spy

Structured Analytic Techniques in Action 33

3 T H E R O A D T O T A R I N K O W T 43

Case Narrative 43

The Road to Tarin Kowt: Structured Analytic Techniques in

Action 55


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viii Brief

Contents

4 W H O M U R D E R E D J O N A T H A N L U N A ? 61

Case Narrative 61

W ho M urdered Jonathan

Luna

Structured Analytic Techniques in

Action 71

5 T H E A S S A S S I N A T I O N O F B E N A Z I R B H U T T O 7 9

Case Narrative 79

The Assassination of B enazir Bhutto: Structured Analytic


6 D E A T H I N T H E S O U T H W E S T 101

Case Narrative 101

Death in th e Southwest: Structured Ana lytic Techniques

in Action 108

7 T H E A T L A N T A O L Y M P I C S B O M B I N G 119

Case

Narrative 119

The Atlanta Olym pics B ombing: Structured Analytic T echniques

in Action 129

8 T H E D C S N I P E R 137

Case Narrative 137

The DC Sniper: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action 148

9

C O L O M B I A S

F A R C

A T T A C K S T H E

U S

H O M E L A N D

155

Case Narrative 155

Colombia s FARC Attacks the US Hom eland: Structured Analytic


10 D E F E N D I N G M U M B A I F R O M T E R R O R I S T A T T A C K 179

Case Narrative 179

Defending Mumbai from Terrorist

Attack:

Structured Analytic


11 S H A D E S O F O R A N G E I N U K R A I N E 20 3

Case Narrative 203

Shades of O range in U kraine: Structured Analytic Techniques

in Action 216


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Brief Contents ix

12 V I O L E N C E E R U P T S I N B E L G R A D E 223

Case Narrative

223

Violence Erupts

in

Belgrade: Structured Analytic Techniques

in Action 235

Image Credits 243


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nnotated Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes xvii

Matrix of Techniques xx

Foreword xxiii

BY ROBERT JERVIS, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

Preface xxix

About the Authors xxxiii

Introduction 1

W H O

POISONED KARINNA MOSKALENKO?

7

The poisoning of prom inent Russian human rights lawyer Karinna

Mo skalenko captured w orldwide media attention in the fall of 2008. It

was

regarded as

yet another entry in a growing list of

poisonings

and

assassinations allegedly carried out by Russia s government against its

critics at home and abroad. This case employs the Premortem Analy-

sis,

Structured Self-Critique,

and

Starbursting

techniques to help

analysts examine the facts of this fast-moving story and develop a

robust set

of

questions to guide

a nuanced

analysis

of the case.

Case Narrative 7

Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Structured Analytic


Is WEN HO LEE A SPY? 21

In 1999,

th e

New York Times

reported

that C hina had

used stolen

US

nuclear secrets to m ake rapid advances in its nuclear warhead develop-

ment. Given the small community of

US scientists

with

access

to such

data, investigators qu ickly focused their case on Taiw anese-A merican

nuclear scientist W en Ho Lee. Had W en Ho Lee engaged in undetected

XI


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x ii Annotated Contents

nefarious

activities for deca des, or did the governm ent

narrow its gaze

too

quickly? Analysts use the Force Field Analysis, Deception Detec-

tion,

Prem ortem Analysis, and Structured Se lf-Critique

techniques

to evaluate both

sides

of

the

case, test for decep tion,

and

troubleshoot

the government s position

that

Wen

Ho

Lee

was

a spy.

Case Narrative

21

Is Wen

Ho

Lee

a

Spy? Structured Analytic Techniques

in

Action

33

THE ROAD TO TARIN KOWT 43

The

US

m ilitary

in

2005 faced

a

pivotal decision abou t b uilding

a

paved road through

a

Taliban stronghold

to

Tarin Kowt,

a

provin-

cial capital

in

Afghanistan.

The

Un ited States

and

other international

donors sa w

the

road as

a

critical element

in

efforts

to stabilize, mod-

ernize, and

demo cratize

Afghanistan. W ith Afghanistan s first parlia-

mentary

elections since

the

overthrow

of the

Taliban

on the horizon,

the US Army

considered

embarking on a highly

accelerated schedule

to complete

the

road

in

time

for the

election. This

case

uses

the

Key

Assumptions

Check,

D evil s Advocacy,

and

Strengths-Weaknesses-

Opportunities-Threats

techniques

to

structure

a

thorough assess-

ment of the

operating environm ent,

the

probable

enemy response, and

the

potential impa ct

on broader U S

goals for Afghanistan.

Case Narrative

43

The Road

to

Tarin Kowt: Structured A nalytic Techniques

in Action

55

WHO MURDERED JONATHAN LUNA? 61

Jonathan Luna was a youthful and

gregarious

federal prosecutor

whose mysterious death in D ecemb er 2003 shocked his friends and

colleagues

and led to a multiyear, m ultistate investigation into how

and why

Jonathan

Luna died. With multiple

theories swirling

amid a

plethora

o f

ambiguous

and

sometimes co ntradictory

evidence,

analysts

use Chronologies

and

Timelines, Simple H ypotheses, the Multiple

Hypotheses G enerator,

and

Analysis

of

Competing Hypotheses

to

track

and

assess

events,

develop

a

range

o f

plausible

explanations, and

rigorously evaluate evidence

in

this perplexing

case.

Case N arrative

61

Who Murdered Jonathan Luna? Structured Analytic

Techniques in Action

71


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Annotated Contents xii i

THE ASSASSINATION OF BENAZIR BHUTTO 79

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto— Pakistan s irst emale prime

minister— during a political rally to support her presidential candi-

dacy

in

2007 sent shock waves through

the

international comm unity

and generated

a

wave

of

accusations

and

counteraccusations abou t

who was responsible. De spite a lengthy investigation, questions remain

about

who was

behind

the

assassination.

The

case employs Chro-

nologies and Timelines

to

help analysts assemble

the

evidence

and

identify informa tion gaps, a

Mind M ap

to help them think creatively

about

possible

perpetrators, and

Analysis

o f

C ompeting Hypotheses

to assist

in

their evaluation

of a

range

of

possible explanations.

Case Narrative

79

The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto: Structured Analytic

Techniques

in

Action

93

D E A T H

IN THE

S O U T H W E S T

101

In the spring of 1993, residents of the Four

Corners

area of the US

Southwest started dying rapidly

and

unexpectedly. Doctors

at

first

suspected virulent flu,

but

they were flummoxed

by

inconclusive test

results

and the

high mortality rate of their patients. With little solid

data available, they faced

a

daunting

and

urgent diagnostic chal-

lenge. This case uses

Structured Brainstorm ing

to help analysts

think creatively and exhaustively about the possible causes, Star-

bursting

to organize that thinking around key

questions,

the

Mul-

tiple Hypotheses Generator

to

create

a

full range

of

alternative

hypotheses,

and a

Key Assumptions Check and Analysis of Com-

peting Hypotheses

to

scrutinize the evidence

and

narrow

the

range

of m ost likely explanations.

Case Narrative 101

Death in the Southwest: Structured Analytic Techniques

in Action 108

THE ATLANTA OLYMPICS BOMBING 119

After a bomb ripped through the crowd at the 1996 Olympics Cen-

tennial Park killing 1 person and injuring HI authorities began a

furious search

for

those responsible for the attack.

An

erstwhile secu-

rity guard

who had

previously warne d authorities about

the

suspi-

cious package

qu ickly

emerged

a s the chief

suspect

in the case. A Key

Assumptions

Check

helps analysts evaluate the course o f action taken

by the authorities as they began the case, Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes


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x iv Annotated Contents

provides analysts with a framework to assess the evidence for and

against the main suspect, and the

Multiple Hypotheses Generator

assists in identifying other plausible perpetrators of the crime.

Case Narrative 119

The Atlanta Olympics Bombing: Structured Analytic


8 THE DC

SNIPER

137

In 2002, only a year after the

9/11

attacks, Washington,

D .

C was again

gripped

with fear

a s

men, women, and

children

w ere gunned down

by

sniper

ire

across the greater m etropolitan area. As authorities raced to

find the culprit, they

were

inundated with myriad

eyewitness

reports,

call-in tips, and other data, but assessing this information proved

difficult. This

case

uses

a Key Assumptions Check to

help analysts

uncov er and challenge implicit assum ptions tha t can color evaluation

of the

available

evidence, and it employs the

Multiple Hypotheses

Generator and Quadrant Crunching to help system atically develop

and

assess

a

range

o f

possible

explanations.

Case Narrative . 137

The DC Sniper: Structured Analytic Techniques in

Action 148

9

COLOMBIA S F RC ATTACKS THE US

HOMELAND 155

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is Latin

Amer-

ica s

largest, oldest,

and

most

capable

insurgent group.

Its

history of

kidnappings, assassinations, and indiscriminate acts of violence ma kes

it one of the most

despised groups

in

Colombia, but it

has never con-

ducted operations in the Un ited States. This case helps analysts to

assess

the possibility

of such an

attack against

the

homeland using

Red Hat Analysis, Structured Brainstorming, Multiple Scenarios

Gene ration, Indicators,

and the

Indicators Validator

to prom pt cre-

ative thinking about the rang e o f possible F ARC attack scenarios and

to identify specific signs that would tip off local officials of an

impend-

in g attack.

Case Narrative 155

Colombia s FARC Attacks the US Homeland: Structured

Analytic Techniques in Action 166


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Annotated Contents

XV

10 DEFENDING MUMBAI FROM TERRORIST

ATTACK 179

In

2008

the

U nited States

quietly

passed intelligence to the

Indian

gov-

ernment warning

of

Pakistani-based terrorist plans

to

attack hotels

and business centers

in

Mum bai. It fell

to

Indian intelligence

and

law

enforcemen t officials

to

identify

the

most likely

timing,

targets,

and

modes

of attack. Structured Brainstorming,

Red at

Analysis,

Qua drant Crunc hing, Indicators, and the Indicators Validator

help analysts evaluate

most

likely modes

of transport, anticipate

likely

targets

and

credible attack scenarios,

and

recognize

the

signs that

a

particular scenario is beginning to take shape.

Case Narrative

179

Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attack: Structured

Analytic Techniques in Action 189

11

S H A D E S

OF O R A N G E IN

U K R A I N E

203

As Ukra ine s long winter m elted into spring in 2004, Ukrainian po li-

tics heated up w ith the announcem ent of presidential elections for the

fall.

The U S relationship with the ruling party in Kiev was arguably at

the

lowest point

since U kraine s independence

in

1991, and

the

election

outcome could have serious consequences

for

US policy

in the

region.

Would U kraine s pro-US opposition have

a

chance of success against

the com bined e fforts of Ukraine s wea lthiest and most pow erful politi-

ca l

forces?

Structured Brainstorming, Outside-In Thinking, and

Simple Scenarios

help analysts

to identify the key

factors

at play and

explain how their dynam ics could result

in a

range of possible futures.

Case Narrative 203

Shades of Orange in U kraine: Structured Analytic


12 VIOLENCE ERUPTS IN BELGRADE 223

A mob of angry protesters attacked the US embassy compound in

Belgrade

in

February 2008, causing limited damage

to the

building

facade. Violence

in the

Serbian

capital,

coupled with sporadic erup-

tions

in

neighboring

Kosovo,

forced

US

officials

to

make difficult

assessments

about the

prospective

threat to US

interests

in the

region

and how the Un ited States should respond. Did these attacks presage

greater violence against Americans,

and

should US officials count on

Serbian authorities to protect

the

U S diplomatic presence?

Force Field


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x v i Annotated Contents

Analyst s, a

Decision Matrix, and Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

provide a ro bust framew ork for

conducting

a thorough

ssessment

to

support decision

making in

a crisis

environment.

Case Narrative 223

Violence Erupts in Belgrade: Structured Analytic


Image Credits 243

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