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SUB Hamburg
A 570761
Cases in
Intelligence Analysis
Structured Analytic Techniques in Action
Sarah Miller Beebe and Rand olph H Phe rson
®SAGE | •
Q P R S S
Los Angeles London | New Delhi
Singapore I Washington DC
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Brief Contents
Annotated Contents xi
Tables, Figures, and Boxes xvii
Matrix of Techniques xx
Foreword xxiii
BY ROBERT JERVIS, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
Preface xxix
About the Authors xxxiii
Introduction 1
1 W H O P O I S O N E D K A R I N N A M O S K A L E N K O ? 7
Case Narrative 7
W ho Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 16
2 I s W E N H O L E E A S P Y ? 21
Case Narrative 21
Is Wen
Ho Lee a
Spy
Structured Analytic Techniques in Action 33
3 T H E R O A D T O T A R I N K O W T 43
Case Narrative 43
The Road to Tarin Kowt: Structured Analytic Techniques in
Action 55
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viii Brief
Contents
4 W H O M U R D E R E D J O N A T H A N L U N A ? 61
Case Narrative 61
W ho M urdered Jonathan
Luna
Structured Analytic Techniques in
Action 71
5 T H E A S S A S S I N A T I O N O F B E N A Z I R B H U T T O 7 9
Case Narrative 79
The Assassination of B enazir Bhutto: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 93
6 D E A T H I N T H E S O U T H W E S T 101
Case Narrative 101
Death in th e Southwest: Structured Ana lytic Techniques
in Action 108
7 T H E A T L A N T A O L Y M P I C S B O M B I N G 119
Case
Narrative 119
The Atlanta Olym pics B ombing: Structured Analytic T echniques
in Action 129
8 T H E D C S N I P E R 137
Case Narrative 137
The DC Sniper: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action 148
9
C O L O M B I A S
F A R C
A T T A C K S T H E
U S
H O M E L A N D
155
Case Narrative 155
Colombia s FARC Attacks the US Hom eland: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 166
10 D E F E N D I N G M U M B A I F R O M T E R R O R I S T A T T A C K 179
Case Narrative 179
Defending Mumbai from Terrorist
Attack:
Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 189
11 S H A D E S O F O R A N G E I N U K R A I N E 20 3
Case Narrative 203
Shades of O range in U kraine: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action 216
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Brief Contents ix
12 V I O L E N C E E R U P T S I N B E L G R A D E 223
Case Narrative
223
Violence Erupts
in
Belgrade: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action 235
Image Credits 243
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nnotated Contents
Tables, Figures, and Boxes xvii
Matrix of Techniques xx
Foreword xxiii
BY ROBERT JERVIS, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
Preface xxix
About the Authors xxxiii
Introduction 1
W H O
POISONED KARINNA MOSKALENKO?
7
The poisoning of prom inent Russian human rights lawyer Karinna
Mo skalenko captured w orldwide media attention in the fall of 2008. It
was
regarded as
yet another entry in a growing list of
poisonings
and
assassinations allegedly carried out by Russia s government against its
critics at home and abroad. This case employs the Premortem Analy-
sis,
Structured Self-Critique,
and
Starbursting
techniques to help
analysts examine the facts of this fast-moving story and develop a
robust set
of
questions to guide
a nuanced
analysis
of the case.
Case Narrative 7
Who Poisoned Karinna Moskalenko? Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 16
Is WEN HO LEE A SPY? 21
In 1999,
th e
New York Times
reported
that C hina had
used stolen
US
nuclear secrets to m ake rapid advances in its nuclear warhead develop-
ment. Given the small community of
US scientists
with
access
to such
data, investigators qu ickly focused their case on Taiw anese-A merican
nuclear scientist W en Ho Lee. Had W en Ho Lee engaged in undetected
XI
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x ii Annotated Contents
nefarious
activities for deca des, or did the governm ent
narrow its gaze
too
quickly? Analysts use the Force Field Analysis, Deception Detec-
tion,
Prem ortem Analysis, and Structured Se lf-Critique
techniques
to evaluate both
sides
of
the
case, test for decep tion,
and
troubleshoot
the government s position
that
Wen
Ho
Lee
was
a spy.
Case Narrative
21
Is Wen
Ho
Lee
a
Spy? Structured Analytic Techniques
in
Action
33
THE ROAD TO TARIN KOWT 43
The
US
m ilitary
in
2005 faced
a
pivotal decision abou t b uilding
a
paved road through
a
Taliban stronghold
to
Tarin Kowt,
a
provin-
cial capital
in
Afghanistan.
The
Un ited States
and
other international
donors sa w
the
road as
a
critical element
in
efforts
to stabilize, mod-
ernize, and
demo cratize
Afghanistan. W ith Afghanistan s first parlia-
mentary
elections since
the
overthrow
of the
Taliban
on the horizon,
the US Army
considered
embarking on a highly
accelerated schedule
to complete
the
road
in
time
for the
election. This
case
uses
the
Key
Assumptions
Check,
D evil s Advocacy,
and
Strengths-Weaknesses-
Opportunities-Threats
techniques
to
structure
a
thorough assess-
ment of the
operating environm ent,
the
probable
enemy response, and
the
potential impa ct
on broader U S
goals for Afghanistan.
Case Narrative
43
The Road
to
Tarin Kowt: Structured A nalytic Techniques
in Action
55
WHO MURDERED JONATHAN LUNA? 61
Jonathan Luna was a youthful and
gregarious
federal prosecutor
whose mysterious death in D ecemb er 2003 shocked his friends and
colleagues
and led to a multiyear, m ultistate investigation into how
and why
Jonathan
Luna died. With multiple
theories swirling
amid a
plethora
o f
ambiguous
and
sometimes co ntradictory
evidence,
analysts
use Chronologies
and
Timelines, Simple H ypotheses, the Multiple
Hypotheses G enerator,
and
Analysis
of
Competing Hypotheses
to
track
and
assess
events,
develop
a
range
o f
plausible
explanations, and
rigorously evaluate evidence
in
this perplexing
case.
Case N arrative
61
Who Murdered Jonathan Luna? Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action
71
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Annotated Contents xii i
THE ASSASSINATION OF BENAZIR BHUTTO 79
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto— Pakistan s irst emale prime
minister— during a political rally to support her presidential candi-
dacy
in
2007 sent shock waves through
the
international comm unity
and generated
a
wave
of
accusations
and
counteraccusations abou t
who was responsible. De spite a lengthy investigation, questions remain
about
who was
behind
the
assassination.
The
case employs Chro-
nologies and Timelines
to
help analysts assemble
the
evidence
and
identify informa tion gaps, a
Mind M ap
to help them think creatively
about
possible
perpetrators, and
Analysis
o f
C ompeting Hypotheses
to assist
in
their evaluation
of a
range
of
possible explanations.
Case Narrative
79
The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto: Structured Analytic
Techniques
in
Action
93
D E A T H
IN THE
S O U T H W E S T
101
In the spring of 1993, residents of the Four
Corners
area of the US
Southwest started dying rapidly
and
unexpectedly. Doctors
at
first
suspected virulent flu,
but
they were flummoxed
by
inconclusive test
results
and the
high mortality rate of their patients. With little solid
data available, they faced
a
daunting
and
urgent diagnostic chal-
lenge. This case uses
Structured Brainstorm ing
to help analysts
think creatively and exhaustively about the possible causes, Star-
bursting
to organize that thinking around key
questions,
the
Mul-
tiple Hypotheses Generator
to
create
a
full range
of
alternative
hypotheses,
and a
Key Assumptions Check and Analysis of Com-
peting Hypotheses
to
scrutinize the evidence
and
narrow
the
range
of m ost likely explanations.
Case Narrative 101
Death in the Southwest: Structured Analytic Techniques
in Action 108
THE ATLANTA OLYMPICS BOMBING 119
After a bomb ripped through the crowd at the 1996 Olympics Cen-
tennial Park killing 1 person and injuring HI authorities began a
furious search
for
those responsible for the attack.
An
erstwhile secu-
rity guard
who had
previously warne d authorities about
the
suspi-
cious package
qu ickly
emerged
a s the chief
suspect
in the case. A Key
Assumptions
Check
helps analysts evaluate the course o f action taken
by the authorities as they began the case, Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
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x iv Annotated Contents
provides analysts with a framework to assess the evidence for and
against the main suspect, and the
Multiple Hypotheses Generator
assists in identifying other plausible perpetrators of the crime.
Case Narrative 119
The Atlanta Olympics Bombing: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 129
8 THE DC
SNIPER
137
In 2002, only a year after the
9/11
attacks, Washington,
D .
C was again
gripped
with fear
a s
men, women, and
children
w ere gunned down
by
sniper
ire
across the greater m etropolitan area. As authorities raced to
find the culprit, they
were
inundated with myriad
eyewitness
reports,
call-in tips, and other data, but assessing this information proved
difficult. This
case
uses
a Key Assumptions Check to
help analysts
uncov er and challenge implicit assum ptions tha t can color evaluation
of the
available
evidence, and it employs the
Multiple Hypotheses
Generator and Quadrant Crunching to help system atically develop
and
assess
a
range
o f
possible
explanations.
Case Narrative . 137
The DC Sniper: Structured Analytic Techniques in
Action 148
9
COLOMBIA S F RC ATTACKS THE US
HOMELAND 155
The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) is Latin
Amer-
ica s
largest, oldest,
and
most
capable
insurgent group.
Its
history of
kidnappings, assassinations, and indiscriminate acts of violence ma kes
it one of the most
despised groups
in
Colombia, but it
has never con-
ducted operations in the Un ited States. This case helps analysts to
assess
the possibility
of such an
attack against
the
homeland using
Red Hat Analysis, Structured Brainstorming, Multiple Scenarios
Gene ration, Indicators,
and the
Indicators Validator
to prom pt cre-
ative thinking about the rang e o f possible F ARC attack scenarios and
to identify specific signs that would tip off local officials of an
impend-
in g attack.
Case Narrative 155
Colombia s FARC Attacks the US Homeland: Structured
Analytic Techniques in Action 166
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Annotated Contents
XV
10 DEFENDING MUMBAI FROM TERRORIST
ATTACK 179
In
2008
the
U nited States
quietly
passed intelligence to the
Indian
gov-
ernment warning
of
Pakistani-based terrorist plans
to
attack hotels
and business centers
in
Mum bai. It fell
to
Indian intelligence
and
law
enforcemen t officials
to
identify
the
most likely
timing,
targets,
and
modes
of attack. Structured Brainstorming,
Red at
Analysis,
Qua drant Crunc hing, Indicators, and the Indicators Validator
help analysts evaluate
most
likely modes
of transport, anticipate
likely
targets
and
credible attack scenarios,
and
recognize
the
signs that
a
particular scenario is beginning to take shape.
Case Narrative
179
Defending Mumbai from Terrorist Attack: Structured
Analytic Techniques in Action 189
11
S H A D E S
OF O R A N G E IN
U K R A I N E
203
As Ukra ine s long winter m elted into spring in 2004, Ukrainian po li-
tics heated up w ith the announcem ent of presidential elections for the
fall.
The U S relationship with the ruling party in Kiev was arguably at
the
lowest point
since U kraine s independence
in
1991, and
the
election
outcome could have serious consequences
for
US policy
in the
region.
Would U kraine s pro-US opposition have
a
chance of success against
the com bined e fforts of Ukraine s wea lthiest and most pow erful politi-
ca l
forces?
Structured Brainstorming, Outside-In Thinking, and
Simple Scenarios
help analysts
to identify the key
factors
at play and
explain how their dynam ics could result
in a
range of possible futures.
Case Narrative 203
Shades of Orange in U kraine: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 216
12 VIOLENCE ERUPTS IN BELGRADE 223
A mob of angry protesters attacked the US embassy compound in
Belgrade
in
February 2008, causing limited damage
to the
building
facade. Violence
in the
Serbian
capital,
coupled with sporadic erup-
tions
in
neighboring
Kosovo,
forced
US
officials
to
make difficult
assessments
about the
prospective
threat to US
interests
in the
region
and how the Un ited States should respond. Did these attacks presage
greater violence against Americans,
and
should US officials count on
Serbian authorities to protect
the
U S diplomatic presence?
Force Field
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x v i Annotated Contents
Analyst s, a
Decision Matrix, and Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
provide a ro bust framew ork for
conducting
a thorough
ssessment
to
support decision
making in
a crisis
environment.
Case Narrative 223
Violence Erupts in Belgrade: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action 235
Image Credits 243