structural transformation as a pathway to food security: comparative analysis of dynamic trends in...
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REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries
Kamiljon T. Akramov, IFPRI, Washington, DC
With contributions from Allen Park and Noah Cohen-Cline
April 8-9, 2014
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Reforms, diversification and growth in Central Asian agriculture
• Since early 1990s agrarian reforms have included…• Reduction of government involvement in decision-making• Land reform and farm reorganization• Formation of markets and institutions
• Reforms stimulated agricultural diversification • Land allocation patterns changed in favor of food and high value
agriculture• Yields in food and high value agriculture continually increasing
• During the last decade the region enjoyed strong agricultural and economic growth• Per capita incomes increased and poverty significantly
declined • Nevertheless, the countries of the region still haven’t
achieved stable food and nutrition security• Stunting rates vary from 13% (Kazakhstan) to 39% (Tajikistan)
Selected food security indicators (2010-2012)
Average dietary
energy supply
adequacy, %
Food
imports/Total
merchandise
exports, %
Per capita food
production
variability
Depth of the
Food Deficit
(kcal/capita/day
)
Prevalence of
undernourishm
ent, %
Armenia 121 50 13 17 <5
Azerbaijan 129 17 9.8 11 <5
Georgia 117 50 27.3 221 24.7
Kazakhstan 144 3 23.1 3 <5
Kyrgyzstan 120 25 2.7 43 6.4
Tajikistan 100 34 5.8 262 31.7
Turkmenistan 127 3 20.6 19 <5
Uzbekistan 115 7 11.2 41 6.1
Bangladesh 107 21 2.5 122 16.8
Nepal 113 50 3.3 126 18.0
Yemen 99 31 1.4 215 32.4
Source: FAO (2013); Akramov & Shredhar (2012)
REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Pathways to food security: from short-run to long-run and from macro to micro
Short Run Long Run
Macro - Food price stability and the role of grain reserves and international trade
- Safety net policy to protect the poor and the budget implications of these transfers
- Policies for creating inclusive economic growth including fiscal, monetary, exchange rate and trade policies
Micro- Vulnerability to price
shocks- Resilience to external
shocks- Receipts from safety nets
- Poverty reduction and stable access to nutritious and healthy food
Source: Timmer (forthcoming)
Successful structural transformation is necessary for achieving stable food security in long run
• Four elements of successful structural transformation (Timmer 2013)• Declining share of agriculture in GDP & employment
• Narrowing gap in labor productivity between agriculture & non-agriculture
• Urbanization
• Demographic transition
• Structural transformation accompanies two other transformations
• Agricultural transformation
• Dietary transformation
• What is the evidence on these transformations in Central Asia?
Land and labor productivity in CAC agriculture (1990-2010) – “Ruttan-a-gram”
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
500 1000 2000 4000
GA
O p
er h
ecta
re o
f ag
ricu
ltu
ral l
and
ad
just
ed t
o r
ain
fed
-cro
pla
nd
eq
uiv
alen
ts (
USD
/ha)
GAO per economically-active worker in agriculture (USD/worker)
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Land and labor productivity in Central Asian agriculture (1990-2010) – “Ruttan-a-gram”
Kazakhstan: Structural transformationIndustry Services Agriculture
1990 52.3 36.4 11.3
2000 40.5 50.8 8.7
2011 40.1 54.3 5.5
1990 NA NA NA
2000 20 53.2 26.7
2011 19 54.6 26.5
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %
Kyrgyzstan: Structural transformation Industry Services Agriculture
1992 37.8 23.2 30
2000 32.1 31.3 36.6
2011 29.8 52.1 18
1992 22.5 39.3 38.1
2000 10.5 36.4 53.1
2011 21 48.3 30.7
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %
Tajikistan: Structural transformationIndustry Services Agriculture
1992 46.1 26.5 27.4
2000 38.4 34.3 27.3
2011 25.3 47.8 26.9
1992 20.0 33.2 46.8
2000 6.9 28.2 64.9
2011 4 29 67
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %
Uzbekistan: Structural transformationIndustry Services Agriculture
1990 32.5 43.7 23.8
2000 23.1 42.5 34.4
2012 32.4 48.7 18.9
1990 27.9 39.4 32.7
2000 12.7 52.8 34.4
2012 13.0 59.8 27.2
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %
Structural transformation paths in Central Asia: Summary
Employment in agriculture
Increasing Decreasing
Income differential
Narrowing
A) Farmer developing
B) Lewis Path
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Growing C) Lewis trap
Tajikistan
D) Farmer excluding
Kazakhstan
Demographic transition and dividend in Central Asian countries
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
Share of Working-Age Population (20-59 years old)
Projected East Asia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan South Asia
Kazakhstan: Composition of calorie intake
Kyrgyzstan: Composition of calorie intake
Tajikistan: Composition of calorie intake
Uzbekistan: Composition of calorie intake
Conclusions
• Structural transformation is a sustainable way to achieve food and nutrition security
• Uneven patterns of continuing structural transformation in the region presents serious problems for policymakers
• Investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure is necessary to raise productivity in the sector
• Promoting labor-intensive manufacturing might be needed to absorb surplus labor from the agricultural sector
Thank you for your attention