strong fundamentals despite regulatory risks...throes of deregulation and subject to intense...
TRANSCRIPT
Strong fundamentalsdespite regulatory risks
DrKW Investor ConferenceNew YorkJanuary 9, 2007
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Forward Looking Statement
* Footnotes are to be inserted manually (using “copy” and “paste“).
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US federal securities laws. Especially all of the following statements:
Projections of revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, capital structure or other financial items;Statements of plans or objectives for future operations or of future competitive position;Expectations of future economic performance; andStatements of assumptions underlying several of the foregoing types of statements
are forward-looking statements. Also words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “may”, “will”, “expect”, “plan”, “project”“should” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements reflect the judgement of RWE’s management based on factors currently known to it. No assurances can be given that these forward-looking statements will prove accurate and correct, or that anticipated, projected future results will be achieved. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, changes in general economic and social environment, business, political and legalconditions, fluctuating currency exchange rates and interest rates, price and sales risks associated with a market environment in the throes of deregulation and subject to intense competition, changes in the price and availability of raw materials, risks associated with energy trading (e.g. risks of loss in the case of unexpected, extreme market price fluctuations and credit risks resulting in the event that trading partners do not meet their contractual obligations), actions by competitors, application of new or changed accounting standards or other government agency regulations, changes in, or the failure to comply with, laws or regulations, particularly those affecting the environment and water quality (e.g. introduction of a price regulation system for the use of power grid, creating a regulation agency for electricity and gas or introduction of trading in greenhouse gas emissions), changing governmental policies and regulatory actions with respect to the acquisition, disposal, depreciation and amortization of assets and facilities, operation and construction of plant facilities, production disruption or interruption due to accidents or other unforeseen events, delays in the construction of facilities, the inability to obtain or to obtain on acceptable terms necessary regulatory approvals regarding future transactions, the inability to integratesuccessfully new companies within the RWE Group to realise synergies from such integration and finally potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations and potential liability resulting from pending or future litigation. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made. RWE neither intends to nor assumes any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. For additional information regarding risks, investors are referred to RWE’s latest annual report and to other most recent reports filed with Frankfurt Stock Exchange or SWX Swiss Exchange and to the material furnished to the US Securities and Exchange Commission by RWE.
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Investment Plans and Growth
Peter TeriumManaging Director, RWE TradingMember of the Group Business Committee
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Forward selling of RWE Power in the German market (baseload forwards in €/MWh)
01/01/2004 07/01/2004 01/01/2005
>1% sold
01/01/2006
36322824
4044485256
07/01/2005
36322824
404448525660
6064
64
as of01/01//2007
07/01/2006
German power market: Prudent forward sellingsecures profit growth in NAP 1 period and beyond
Performance
36322824
40444852566064
Forward 2007
Forward 2008
Forward 2009
>10% sold >95% sold
>60% sold
>35% sold >55% sold
>10% sold>1% sold
>90% sold
>45% sold
>20% sold>10% sold
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
We aim to grow our European energy business along the value chain
Good returns
Organic growth
Overheatedmarket
Leverage corestrengthPrivatizations
Advanced assetoptimisationIncreasing market
Outperformance
Expand customerbasePrivatizations
OverbuildingCO2
Margin reduction
Regulation
Upstreamoil and gas
Generation
Trading
Transmission
Distribution
Sales
Intensifiedcompetition
Strategy
Opportunities Risks Aspiration
Kick-off LNG
Strengthen gas
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Our geographic focus is Europe
U.K.
GermanyPoland
Czech Republic
Austria Hungary
NL
Slovakia
UK:Strengthen position as top tier power and gas player
Germany:Strengthen gas position to com-plement power
Netherlands:Become a leading gas and power company
Eastern Europe:Expand existing CEE1 positions (and selectively occupy positions in SEE2)
European Gas:Expand pipeline and storage business, se-cure access to LNG3
1 CEE = Central Eastern Europe2 SEE = South Eastern Europe3 LNG = Liquefied Natural Gas
Luxemb.
Strategy
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Recent initiatives for growth
U.K.
GermanyPoland
Czech Republic
AustriaHungary
NL
Slovakia
Luxemb.
South Eastern Europe
Interested in building a new power plant in Bulgaria (Maritsa)
Gate (LNG)
Entry into the regasi-fication market
Constructionof power plant (optional)
Entry into the Dutchgeneration market
Saar Ferngas
Expansion of downstreamgas position in Germany
Strategy
Plan for a new lignite-fired power station in Hungary (Mátra)
Central Eastern Europe
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
We aim to further leverage our core strength:The monetization of asset optionalities in the power market
Strategy
Breakdown of generation capex Examples of initiatives
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2 Growth
Replacement
Growth initiatives
Replacement initiatives
Great Yarmouth (420 MW CCGT)Pembroke/Staythorpe (up to 2,000 MW CCGT)Renewables (ca. 700 MW) Customer IPPs (200 - 600 MW CCGTs)Netherlands (1,600 MW hard coal)
Neurath BoA 2/3 (2,100 MW lignite)Hamm (1,600 MW hard coal)Ensdorf (1,600 MW hard coal) (partly growth)Lingen (876 MW CCGT) (partly growth)Matra (400 MW lignite) (partly growth)
A
A
A
= Announced, final investment decision yet to be takenA
A
A
A
A
A
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Combination of all non-regulated midstream gas activities into a new company as first step in 2007:
- Procurement (wholesale)
- Non-regulated transport/transit
- LNG (commercial responsibility, business development)
- Storage (commercial optimization)
As European wholesale gas markets become more liquid, our second step will be to merge midstream gas with RWE Trading in order to create a fully integrated all-commodity midstream unit
Stefan Judisch appointed as CEO of the gas midstream company
Bundling of the Group’s gas midstream competencies
Strategy
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Strategy
Upstream oil & gas – competitive advantagein high price commodity markets
Germany
Great Britain
Portugal
Poland
Norway
AlgeriaLibya
Egypt UAE
Overview of RWE Dea activities
Highest ROCE within RWE Group
Financial hedge against fuel price volatility in power generation business and gas supply especially in UK
Diversification of our gasprocurement portfolio
Production activities exploration activities
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Strong production growth beyond 2009
RWE Dea – Reserves & S-Resources (P50)in million bbl oil equivalent – end of year status
RWE Dea – Gas and Oil Productionin thousand bbl oil equivalent/day
294
92
545
106
580
100426 423626
218 186 170
81
9
15
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Natural Gas Resources
Natural Gas Reserves
Kazakhstan Reserves + Resources
2005 2007e 2009e Outlook
Crude Oil Resources
Crude Oil Reserves
Dubai Reserves + Resources
1,200
800
400
0
729
406
968
292
1,206
270
Gas
Oil
Replacementrate > 100%
10
39
76
62
4946
602
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Natural Gas
Crude Oil
Crude Oil Dubai
Crude Oil Kazakhstan
2005 2007e 2009e Outlook
CAGR: ~10%(2009-16)
Gas
Oil
Reserves = proved + probableResources = S1 + S2
Replacementrate = 100%
Strategy
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Update on Other Group Topics
Ingo AlphéusVice President Investor Relations
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Highlights 2006
Performance Q1 – Q3
Financial Position
Strategy / Portfolio
Outlook 2006
We expect a positive net financial position in the order of € 3 billion at year-end
Operating result + 15%; adjusted for deconsolidation and f/x effects + 16%Net profit + 23%Cost reduction: € 180 million out of € 230 million achieved
Thames Water sold to Kemble Water Ltd. for GBP 8 billion (€ 11.9 billion)American Water sale preparations continueBundling of the Group’s midstream gas competencies
Earnings guidance generally confirmed
Performance
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Sale of RWE Water Businesses
Thames Water Sale completedSale to Kemble Water Ltd, a consortium led by Macquarie’s EuropeanInfrastructure Funds completed 1 December 2006.
Sale price GBP 4.8 bn (€ 7.2 bn*), Implied enterprise value of GBP 8.0 bn(€ 11.9 bn*) including pro forma net debt of GBP 3.2 bn (€ 4.7 bn*)
Transaction will result in a book gain of approx. € 0.7 bn
Update on planned disposal of American WaterPetitions for regulatory approvals filed in 13 states – four approvals alreadyreceived
Set up of necessary corporate functions (refinancing, risk management andinternal control) on schedule
IPO expected in 2007
Strategy
* based on an exchange rate of GBP/EUR 0.67
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Electricity grid fee approvals
Munich
Berlin
Stuttgart
Frankfurt
Leipzig
Hamburg
Hanover
Saarbrücken Ludwigshafen
Augsburg
Dresden
Chemnitz
HalleEssen
Gelsenkirchen Dortmund
Osnabrück
Bad Kreuznach
RWE
Süwag
PfalzwerkeVSE
Koblenz
Kevag
LEW
enviaM
RWE
TSO ElectricityRWE Transportnetz StromGrid revenue € 1.0 bn/a
Region NorthRWE Westfalen-Weser-EmsGrid revenue € 0.8 bn/a
Region CentreRWE Rhein-RuhrGrid revenue € 1.3 bn/a
Region SouthwestSüwag Energie AGgrid revenue € 0.4 bn/a
Region WestenergisGrid revenue € 0.1 bn/a
-9%
Region EastenviaMgrid revenue € 0.6 bn/a
Region SouthLechwerkegrid revenue € 0.3 bn/a
Numbers before regulation
-12%
-12%
German Regulation
-10%
-11%
-14%
-13%
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Bad Kreuznach
Worms
Dettingen
Dortmund
Essen
Gas grid fee approvals
Region North
Region Centre
Region Southwest
RWE Westfalen-Weser-Emsgrid revenue € 0.15 bn/a
Süwag Energie AGgrid revenue € 0.05 bn/a
RWE Rhein-Ruhrgrid revenue € 0.1 bn/a
TSO GasRWE Transportnetz Gasgrid revenue € 0.2 bn/a
Halle
Frankfurt Region EastMitgasgrid revenue € 0.1 bn/a
All values before regulation
German Regulation
-26%
-14%
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Introduction of incentive regulation
regulatoryperiod
1(4 years)
revenue cap
2(4 years)
revenue cap
best practice (efficient costs)
reduction of inefficient TOTEX (OPEX andCAPEX): individual X
productivity of industry sector:general X
German Regulation
reduction of inefficient TOTEX (OPEX andCAPEX): individual X
Cost reduction for 2008 based on 2006 costs
01.01.2009
Starting pointincentive regulation
to be discussed
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Update on Emissions Trading: The new German National Allocation Plan (NAP II)
German NAP II was notified to the EU commission by end of June 2006. Key elements:
– Emission cap: 482 mil t p.a. from 2008-2012; compliance factor (cf) of 85% for existing plants in utility sector compared to emissions of base period; no auctioning
– 14 years of full allocation for new plants; replacement plants: 4 years historical emissions of old plant + 10 years full allocation “4 + 14” rule maintained for replacement plants that are currently built and approved
– Standard load factor of 7,500 h/year for lignite-, hard coal- and gas-fired plants
– 12% cap on utilisation of certificates derived from CDM/JI
Federal Environment Ministry announced reduction in cap to 465 mil t p.a. (cf: 71%).
On November, 29, the EU Commission required a further reduction to 453 mil t p.a.(estimated cf: 65-67%). Furthermore, allocation guarantees contained in the NAP I maynot be implemented in NAP II. If new allocation guarantees are implemented in German law the Commission will examine them under EU state aid rules.
German Government disagrees with these decisions but seeks to come to an agreement with the EU.
Emissions Trading
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Update on Emissions Trading: Current status of UK Governmental draft (NAP II)
The UK published a drafted NAP II in March 2006; following public consultation, the Government announced further details of the NAP at the end of June and submitted it to the EU commission on August 21
Key elements:
– Emission cap for CO2 certificates: 237 mil t p.a. from 2008 – 2012 compared with 245 mil t p.a. in phase I
– Auctioning is set at 7% of total allocation, all of which will be taken from the electricity sector
– Allocations to individual sectors will be in line with business as usual except for the electricity sector which will bear the entire shortfall in the total allocation
– 8% cap on utilisation of certificates derived from CDM/JI
– The allocation to the electricity sector, including the new entrant reserve, is 107.7 mil t p.a. compared with 136.9 mil t p.a. in phase I
– Allocation to RWE npower is 12.4 mil t p.a. compared with 15.8 mil t p.a. in phase I
On November, 29, the EU Commission announced that it accepts NAP II nearlyin full. But allocation of > 90% allowances for free may constitute state aid.
Emissions Trading
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
3,667
2,257
2,231
6,201
41,819
Reported20052
€ million
ca. € 4.5 – 4.8 bn3,667Capex on fixed assets
ca. +10%2,257Recurrent net income
> +40% 12,231Net income
+5% - 10%5,371Operating result
+5% - 10%39,488External revenue
2006forecast3,4
Pro forma20052, 3
€ million
1 Including book gain of € 0.7 billion for Thames Water2 Exchange rates of (€1 =) USD 1.24; GBP 0.683 Pro forma: Thames Water as discontinued operations4 Based on exchange rates of (€ 1 =) USD 1.25; GBP 0.70
Outlook for 2006Performance
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
Outlook for 2006
1,416
437
2,507
2,112
6,201
8,324
Reported20051
€ million
+5% - 10%
2006forecast2,3
7,096EBITDA
5,371Operating result
586Water Division
437RWE npower
2,507RWE Energy
2,112RWE Power (incl. RWE Trading)
Pro forma20051,2
€ million
Operating result
1 Exchange rates of (€1 =) USD 1.24; GBP 0.682 Pro forma: Thames Water discontinued operations3 Based on exchange rates of (€1 =) USD 1.25; GBP 0.704 2006 number American Water only
4
Performance
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Peter Terium, Ingo Alphéus | DrKW Conference, New York | January 9, 2007
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