oil deregulation & its impact
TRANSCRIPT
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OIL PRICE DEREGULATION
Ajay Gurbani-15
Hitesh Gurnasinghani-16
111 August 2010
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Introduction• Government of India deregulated the prices of petroleum
products
• Decision was taken on 25 June 2010 at EGOM (Empowered Group of Ministers)
• Decision was made on the basis of recommendation by Kirit Parikh Committee
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The Big Rider
• This is not the first attempt by the government to deregulate
petroleum product prices.
• In April 2002, in an attempt to phase out subsidy on petroleum
products, the government dismantled the administered pricing
mechanism (APM) For pricing of Petrol an diesel
• To revise retail prices within a band of +/-10% of the mean of
rolling average of the last 12 months
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Reasons
1. To reduce the losses of oil marketing companies which are
borne by:
Upstream oil sector companies like ONGC, OIL INDIA
Government: By issuing bonds
The residual amount is borne by OMC like HPCL, BPCL, etc.
2. To reduce competition, since private companies do not receive
financial support.
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IMPACT OF DEREGULATION
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Impact of Deregulation
• Increase in Prices
• Inflation
• Interest rate
• Public Finance
• Private players will re-emerge
• Improve Valuation of OMC
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Increase In Prices:
Product Increase in ` Increase in %
PETROL 3.5/ltr 6.7
DIESEL 2/ltr5
LPG 35/cylinder 11.2
KEROSENE 3/ltr33.30
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Inflation
•Impact Of Price Deregulation On WPI Index
PRODUCTS
Current
price
(since 26th
June, 2010)
Hike in
Rs.
%
increase
Weight in
WPI
basket(bps)
Impact on
Inflation(bps
)
Petrol 51.43 3.5 7.3 89 6.5
High Speed
Diesel40.10 2 5.25 202 10.61
LPG 345.35 35 11.3 180 20.34
Kerosene 12.32 3 32.2 70 22.54
Overall 541 59.99
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Inflation
Although direct impact on WPI by deregulation is 59.99
bps but due to increase in fuel price will also increase price
other commodities which will result in increase in inflation by
0.9% to 1.5%.
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Public Finance:
• Under-recoveries will reduce from ~`.770 bn to `.530 bn
• As Petrol is fully deregulated so under-recoveries on petrol, ~10% will be fully wiped out.
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Public Finance:
PRODUCTS PRE-DEREGULATION POST-DEREGULATION
PETROL 75 -
LPG 239 210
KEROSENE 199 17
DIESEL 257 150
TOTAL 770 530
IMPACT ON UNDER – RECOVERIES (` Bn)
Source CIRA estimates
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Fiscal Deficit
• Government in reducing Fiscal Deficit which is roaring around
11% (including off-balance sheet items like Oil Bonds,
Subsidies, etc)
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Fiscal Deficit
Following Chart Depicts Subsidy Sharing Mechanism After Deregulation
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Interest Rates
• The deregulation has impacted the rise in overall fuel prices,
which will increase the prices of products & food due to
increase in transportation cost. As we have shown above the
overall impact on WPI by 59.90 bps thus, higher inflation
resulted in tightening of Monetary Policy we seen on 27th July,
2010.
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Improve Valuation of OMC
• Due to increase in fuel price the profit of Oil marketing
companies will improve will result in result in higher Earning
per share
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Private Players Will Re-emerge
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CONCLUSION• The overall de-regularising effect will be helpful to
Government
• Reduction in subsidies
• However, absence of:
oThe timeline of the diesel price deregulation,
oThe frequency of change in petrol price, and
oPricing limit (band) for petrol price takes some sheen off the
decision.
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THANK YOU