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Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies Dr Dasarath (Jaya) Jayasuriya 3-5 November 2015 ICT-CSIS workshop, WMO, Geneva

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Page 1: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies Dr Dasarath (Jaya) Jayasuriya 3-5 November 2015 ICT-CSIS workshop, WMO, Geneva

Page 2: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Seamless water forecasting approach

DECADES DAYS DAYS WEEKS WEEKS YEARS YEARS DECADES

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Perspective Foresight Situational awareness

Flood and 7-day

Seasonal

Long-term

Page 3: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Seamless water forecasting approach

DECADES DAYS DAYS WEEKS WEEKS YEARS YEARS DECADES

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Perspective Foresight Situational awareness

Flood and 7-day

Seasonal

Long-term

Page 4: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

7-Day Streamflow Forecasts

• Automatically generated every day • 114 forecast locations in 62 catchments

available to registered users • Service to be made public in September

2015

Page 5: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Observations Data

assimilation

Numerical Weather

Prediction model run(s)

Rainfall forecasts

Rainfall runoff routing

model

Post processing

Real-time streamflow

Real-time rain gauge

Streamflow forecasts

Integrated streamflow forecasting Translating science into services that support decisions

Page 6: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Service Expansion

• Forty new rivers to be added in 2015-16

• Potential sites have been identified in the map

• Transition of the service from deterministic to probabilistic will be investigated during 2016

Page 7: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Murray Darling Basin Authority Case Study

• MDBA release water from Hume Dam to achieve targets at Lake Mulwala

• 7-day forecasts for the Ovens and Kiewa Rivers help them plan releases

• Leads to improved outcomes for irrigators and the environment

Andrew Bishop (MDBA): “Having these forecasts is fantastic! It allows us to more accurately estimate what these natural inflows will be. This means we can meet our Lake Mulwala objectives with more precision by making the right releases upstream. We can also plan for releases in conjunction with natural flows to improve environmental outcomes downstream.”

Hume Reservoir

Barmah National Park

Kiewa River

Releases

Ovens River

Lake Mulwala

Irrigation Supply

Irrigation Supply

Downstream Flows to the Murray

Travel Time 4 days

Page 8: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Case study: Denmark River, Water Corporation (WA)

• Salinity in Denmark Dam catchment with change in land use

• Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help with blending water from fresher (and much smaller) Quickup Dam

• Soon be able to desalinate water from the Denmark Dam if required

• Forecasts could help inform the Water Management Board, regulators, stakeholders and the general public

Page 9: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Other use cases under investigation

• Combine release from a dam with natural flows to enhance floodplain inundation (GBCMA: Lower Goulburn)

• Use forecasts to help plan water monitoring activities such as sample collection for water quality (WA Department of Water)

Page 10: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Seamless water forecasting approach

DECADES DAYS DAYS WEEKS WEEKS YEARS YEARS DECADES

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Perspective Foresight Situational awareness

Flood and 7-day

Seasonal

Long-term

Page 11: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Seasonal streamflow forecasting service

• Probabilistic forecasts of total streamflow volumes at a site or total inflows to a water storage

• Monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasts, updated every month

• 197 sites for registered users and 140 sites for public

Page 12: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Tercile forecasts

Page 13: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Case study: Icon Water (ACT)

• Seasonal streamflow forecasts available for the ACT

• Icon Water helped the Bureau in experimental phase to refine products

• Case study to highlight the use of forecasts in decision making

• Forecasts provide reduced uncertainty

Page 14: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Case study: Melbourne Water

• Seasonal forecasts at five major locations in the Melbourne water supply network

• Collaboration has: – increased the accuracy of forecasts – offered insight for the Bureau on how

the forecasts support decision making – Aided Melbourne Water optimise water

harvesting and transfers between reservoirs

– Improve metrics on forecast performance

Page 15: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Case study: Lake Argyle, Department of Water (WA)

• Low water levels in Lake Argyle trigger restrictions to water for irrigation, hydropower and the environment

• Weigh up probability of more severe restrictions in the future based on the probability of historical inflow and storage records

• Streamflow forecasts of inflow can provide a more informed probability of future restrictions, and therefore minimise spills

Page 16: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Case study: Serpentine Dam, Water Corporation (WA)

• Forecasts can help avoid uncontrolled spills by having more certainty of dry periods during inflow months (June to October)

• Forecasts also help allocating environmental flows

• Surface water is cheaper, and forecasts could reduce groundwater withdrawls if high flows are predicted

Page 17: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Further examples of forecast value

• provide guidance to WaterNSW on future storage levels in the Burrinjuck and Blowering Reservoirs and assist with decisions about water delivery to Murrumbidgee irrigators

• Goulburn Murray Water uses forecasts in filling policy for Lake Eildon, and to plan decisions on water harvesting for Waranga Basin

• Assist Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority with improved estimates of flood discharges on coral health

• Indication of potential for spills from Hume and Dartmouth Reservoirs which impact water allocation and management decisions in SA (DEWNR)

• Provide more certainty of future flows to help mines plan for controlled releases (NTDME)

Page 18: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Service development

• Expand to 300 locations in 2 years • Individual forecasts for the first, second

and third month • Extend forecasts to cover 3 to 6 months

Page 19: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Seamless water forecasting approach

DECADES DAYS DAYS WEEKS WEEKS YEARS YEARS DECADES

PAST FUTURE PRESENT

Perspective Foresight Situational awareness

Flood and 7-day

Seasonal

Long-term

Page 20: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Trends in annual streamflow

• Australia-wide – 32% decreasing trend – 4% increasing trend

Page 21: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Trends in Victoria

• Lerderderg River – Decreasing trend – Step change – mid 1990s – Changed monthly distribution

Page 22: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Summary

Page 23: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Summary

• 7 day and seasonal streamflow forecasting services are available to registered users and the public

• Service locations are being expanded to improve national coverage • Case studies demonstrate practical applications • Hydrological Reference Stations provide a network of observations to assess long-term

impacts on water availability • Bureau keen to explore further opportunities to expand case studies

Page 24: Streamflow Forecasting Case Studies - World … water forecasting approach DECADES YEARS WEEKS DAYS DAYS WEEKS YEARS DECADES PAST PRESENT FUTURE Perspective Situational awareness Foresight

Thank you

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