GAURAV DALMIA

Vladmir Lenin’s observation —

“There are decades when nothing

happens and weeks when decades

happen” — has become a cliché in 2020.

The world drastically changed with the

onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many of

the global trends reached tipping point and

the shelf life of some of the world-shaping

forces got over. If there was a turbulence

index, this would be a peak year for it.

On a regular day, we channelise our

attention to things that directly affect our

lives in the here and now. However, there

are forces at play that will profoundly shape

our futures, some below the radar, others

visible but with unintended consequences.

Here are five such things that I believe

stand out as the events of 2020.

“There are decades when nothing happens and weeks when decades happen”

THE COVID RESET

1

The COVID-19 wave was not entirely

unpredicted. In 2018, Bill Gates,

who had been studying the spread

of contagious diseases for more than

twenty years, predicted the possibility that

a pandemic caused by an alien pathogen

spreading across the globe sooner or later.

His doomsday view was based on the

emergence of infectious diseases such as

the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

(SARS) in 2003, the Swine Flu in 2009,

the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome

(MERS) in 2012, and Ebola in 2014. These

outbreaks made him pay closer attention to

infectious diseases and cemented his view

that pandemics were not getting enough

attention because they largely occurred

outside rich countries, so it was easier to

underestimate them.

Then, in December 2019, COVID-19 was first

identified in Wuhan, China. By end January

2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO)

had declared it a public health emergency

of international concern. I remember being

in Davos, and opinion leaders there had not

really understood the ramifications of this

novel coronavirus. By March 2020, however,

COVID-19 was officially declared a pandemic.

By the end of November, it had led to 62 million

infections and 1.4 million deaths worldwide.i

Along the way, the pandemic changed our

lives; some aspects have been changed

forever. Work-from-home became not

just a short-term reality, but the long-

term stated position for many companies

and even as a legislated right in some

countriesiii. COVID-19 shifted society’s

“Along the way, the pandemic changed our lives; some aspects have been changed forever. Work-from-home

became not just a short-term reality, but the long-term stated position for many companies and even as a

legislated right in some countries.”

Source: World Health Organisationii

Overton Window; new ideas became

acceptable to the general population. For

instance, state capacity came back into

debate. Asian countries have given up their

long-standing small government stance

and committed US $7 trillion—the largest

in Asian history.

Most of all, COVID-19 brought to attention

the complex trade-offs facing world leaders.

Should the world take a Rawlsian view and

focus on those at the bottom of the pyramid?

Should leaders take a utilitarian stance

and seek to benefit the largest number of

people? The answers to the two questions

would certainly be different. Should

societies be more libertarian, resisting

imposition from above, or should societies

be more accepting of a more authoritarian

approach in the hope of greater efficiency?

Such political philosophy debates became

more explicit in 2020. Indeed, the contest

for legitimacy in the years to come will be

fought on the narrative as to which country

best handled the pandemic.

CHINA PEAKS

2

The rise of China seems like a

phenomenon of the last two

decades, but it is not. Lafcadio

Hearn—a Japan-based journalist known

for his writings on East Asian culture—

predicted in an essay in The Atlantic

in 1896 that China will one day pose

a formidable economic threat to the

West.iv By the 1950s, China had become

an important factor in the western world’s

assessment of global power plays. By the

late ’70s, China’s economic forces were

clearly visible to strategists, even though it

would take a few decades for it to seep into

the popular consciousness. The same lag is

happening to China’s plateauing.

The world’s experience with Japan is very

indicative. In the 1980s and early ’90s, few

questioned that Japan would dominate

the world. It was estimated that the 1.5 sq

km of land housing the Imperial Palace in

Tokyo was worth as much as all the land

in California. Japanese companies were

buying Hollywood studios, and Japanese

cars and consumer electronics brands were

dominant worldwide. We read Kenichi

Ohmae’s management tome on Japanese

management practices—The Mind of the

Strategist—in business school. Many of the

companies celebrated in the book have since

faltered. Another book, The Japan That

Can Say No, by Tokyo governor Shintaro

Ishihara and Sony Chairman Akio Morita,

was an expression of Japan’s ambitions,

and in hindsight, its hubris. Japan went on

to stumble and even though it remains a

formidable economy, the inevitability of its

one-way rise was over. Nothing significant

happened globally that changed Japan’s

course. It got bogged down by its own

internal challenges. Indeed, forts decay

from the inside.

China’s meteoric rise echoes Japan’s

path. Growth rate differentials compound

over time and the results are often

counterintuitive. Since 1989, the Chinese

economy has grown 14.12x, as compared

to 2.32x for the world as whole.v It is now

not just a factory to the world, but also the

biggest consumption driver. China also

has the best poverty alleviation record in

history: from 1978 to 2018, the number

of China’s rural poor decreased by more

than 700 million.vi China has some of

the world’s biggest banks, its companies

dominate pharmaceutical ingredients

and technology, and its productivity

growth is unparalleled. Yet, its current

picture looks less dynamic: the debt

overhang is pulling back the economy,

the regional imbalance between the

coastal areas and the interiors is

creating massive friction, the ageing

population and the demographic

drain is staring China in the face,

and China’s increased global ambitions

are prompting it towards classic

over-reach even as government finances

are getting tight.

It seems China has peaked. Not just stark

economic facts are getting worrying, a

muscular China’s engagement with the

world is changing as well. A recent 14

country poll by Pew Research shows

that views of China have been growing

Source: Summer 2020 Global Attitudes Surveyvii

negative in recent years, and a majority

in each of the surveyed countries have an

unfavourable opinion of China. And in

Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany,

the Netherlands, Sweden, the United

States, South Korea, Spain and Canada,

negative views have reached their highest

points since polling began on this topic

more than a decade ago.

I agree with views propounded by Gregory

Mitrovich, a leading scholar at the Arnold

A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace

Studies at Columbia University, when he

says that China has not learnt from the US

path of global leadership. The US rose in the

aftermath of World War II, amidst a power

vacuum. This gave it an unprecedented

opening and the success of its plans to

help Europe and Japan rebuild gave it

unparalleled legitimacy as it consolidated

power. China lacks both. Under the

Marshall Plan for reviving Europe, the US

allocated US $3.2 billion in 1945 just for

food relief. Contrast that to China’s “wolf

warrior” diplomacy, where programmes

under China’s Belt and Road Initiative

(BRI) seem overly transactional and one

sided. The blinkers on Chinese leadership

were further exposed when, as the world’s

leading manufacturer of medical products,

it failed to act in common interest to further

its diplomatic efforts and soft power. The

cumulative effect of China’s postures is

that its legitimacy is now in question and

will remain so even when globalisation

gains favour again. All this put together will

temper China’s rise and might even reverse

some gains of the past decade.

GREEN MOVEMENT ACCELERATES

The environment movement

officially turned 50 this year. The

first Earth Day was celebrated on

22 April 1970 and the US Environmental

Protection Agency was also created later

that year. The Earth Day started with

saving polar bears and other endangered

species; over the next half century, it took

on the challenge of saving communities via

sustainable development. Earlier initiatives

of policymakers were to curb pollution;

it grew in the ’90s to address the broader

forces of climate change. The term “Climate

Change” itself was coined by oceanographer

Wallace Smith Broecker way back in 1975,

but the absorption of the idea took a full

generation. The mission creep would go

on to shape public consciousness. What

started as a fringe idea has now caught the

imagination of people at large.

A quick survey of history shows that human

activity can permanently hurt ecosystems.

The earliest civilisations—whether in the

Indus Valley, Mesopotamia, or Central

America—were along the most fertile river

3

beds of those times. All of these areas are

now arid or semi-arid lands. Man’s long-

term impact on the environment has not

been good.

At the same time, extreme weather events

are increasing in number. Particle pollution,

droughts, extreme temperatures, and

tornadoes amplified by oceanic warming

have become a phenomenon for all of us

to see. Soil salination, coastal erosion and

oceanic acidification are creeping upon

us, slowly but surely. According to the

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre,

17.2 million people were forced to leave

their homes because of climate-related

economic pressures last yearviii. Further, the

World Bank projects that internal climate

migration would touch 143 million people

by 2050. Clearly, planet earth is telling us,

“You are my guests, not my masters”.

All change is messy. The Global Carbon

Project reported that carbon emissions

worldwide, which were largely flat from

2014 to 2016, had increased 1.6% in 2017,

2.7% in 2018, and 0.6% in 2019. Experts

believe 2020 will reverse this negative

trend, even after adjusting for the effects of

the global slowdown. If this is a test of will,

society is demonstrating it has it!

Source: Global Carbon Projectix

The challenge is being attacked from all

sides. On the demand side, consumers are

voting with their feet and are increasingly

buying Teslas and its equivalents. Data

from the International Energy Agency

shows that sales of electric cars topped

2.1 million globally in 2019 to boost the

stock in use to 7.2 millionx. Electric cars,

which accounted for 2.6 percent of global

car sales and about 1 percent of global

car stock in 2019, registered a 40 percent

year-on-year increase. This trend will

accelerate as charging networks proliferate

and governments mandate adoption. For

instance, the UK government’s current

policy states that by 2040, all new cars

sold in the UK should be zero emissions

capable—that means battery electric, plug-

in hybrid electric or hydrogen.

Forces from the supply side are active

as well. Increasingly, pension funds and

money managers are getting into the act.

Earlier this year, Blackrock, the world’s

largest money manager, joined Climate

Action 100+, an investor network that

pushes fossil fuel companies to make

new disclosures and carbon emissions

commitments. The group’s combined

assets under management are now US

$41 trillion and includes heavyweights like

Calpers, Allianz, and UBS. The group’s

“Renewables will represent 95 percent of the net increase in global power capacity through 2025, and total installed

wind and solar capacity will surpass natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024.”

2020 fossil emissions decrease of 2.4 billion tonnes is largest ever recorded

2020 projection about - 7%

+0.9% per year2010-2019

Emissions growthhad begun to falter

before COVID+3% per year2000-2009

Source: Global Carbon Project basedon CDIAC/BP/USGSUnits: Billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year(GtCO2/yr)

CO2

emissions cuts of 1 to 2 billion tonnes are needed

each year between 2020 and 2030 to limit climate

change in line with Paris Agreement

goals

1999

GtCO2/yr 40-

35-

30-

25-

20-

2005 2010 2015 2020

collective pressure has already won

concessions from companies such as Shell

and BP. Not surprisingly, the International

Energy Agency’s estimates show that 200

gigawatts of renewable power will be added

in 2020, led by China and the US, and

that renewables will represent close to 90

percent of all new power capacity. While

some of this may be triggered by sunset

clauses in tax benefit announcements, it

projects that renewables will represent 95

percent of the net increase in global power

capacity through 2025, and total installed

wind and solar capacity will surpass

natural gas in 2023 and coal in 2024. These

statistics would have been mere conjecture

at the beginning of the decade.

My personal hope is that the climate change

movement will broaden to encompass

food supply. About a quarter of all global

emissions come from feeding the world’s

7.8 billion people. A large part of that

comes from the consumption of meat. Bill

Gates acknowledged in a blog several years

ago that traditional meat production for the

world population was not sustainable.xi The

movement to lab-grown meat has heated up

in the past few years. This has ramifications

both for personal and public health. While

technology solutions take their course,

perhaps citizens can take ownership of

the problems meat is creating—climate

change, economic inefficiency and health

risks—and go vegetarian a few days a week.

We truly need to be good guests of planet

earth.

SPACE COMMERCE GETS REAL

It used to be that space was the domain

of countries. And, that too, rich

countries. Now increasingly, private

companies are entering the game and are

poised to dominate. Plus, space was an

expensive and wasteful business. Space X

broke the traditional paradigm that rockets

could not be reused. In November this year,

it was successful in breaking its own record

by rescuing a Falcon 9 first stage rocket

booster for a seventh trip . Its latest launch

4

was also the first operational commercial

crew mission with four astronauts on

board to go to the International Space

Station. NASA’s initial estimate was that

each launch by Space X would cost US $95

million. Space X is currently running at a

cost of US $30 million per launch. Think

of this as the new Moore’s Law for space

exploration. Based on these trends, one

should expect serious disruption to follow.

Source: Federal Aviation Associationxiii

Cost per kiloSpaceX optimal $6,078NASA average $23,750

Launch cost (Falcon 9)$62 million$152 million

Payload (Dragon caspsule)10,200 kg6,400 kg

These days it’s getting hard to distinguish

between science fiction and reality. Nokia

just won the bid from NASA to build a

cellular network on the moon. Nokia’s

LTE/4G technology was a precursor to

the current 5G technology and will be

implemented on the lunar surface by end

2022 and will revolutionise lunar surface

communications by delivering reliable,

high data rates while containing power, size

and cost. Communications will be a crucial

component for NASA’s Artemis program,

which plans to establish a sustainable

presence on the Moon by the end of the

coming decade.

Several years ago, I had seen a presentation

for a technology that could generate solar

energy in outer space efficiently because

of the much higher intensity of solar

radiation, and then beam it down to earth.

It was estimated that such technologies

could service the entire energy needs of

our planet by mid-century. Added to this,

the 2015 “Space Law” allows companies

to prospect for minerals on near-earth

asteroids or even generate energy sources

in outer space to power further space

exploration. Companies like Planetary

Resources, funded by Google’s founders,

are already in the race. We’ll get used to

more such new names.

Elon Musk has predicted how colonisation

of outer space might look likexiv. “Life

in glass domes at first. Eventually,

terraformed to support life, like Earth.xv”

He believes science can master the process

of altering the atmosphere and physical

features of the moon or any other planet

to make it habitable. These ideas were first

postulated by Carl Sagan in the early 1960s.

Needless to say, such approaches will raise

questions beyond science. Issues related

to ethics, economics, and geopolitics will

play an important role. However, if one

follows Cynthia Stokes Brown’s thrilling

narrative on how life came into being on

earth 3.5 billion years ago and how it led

to the modern world, there is enough

science, creativity and ambition in the

world to see how many of these conditions

might be replicated and accelerated for

human settlements on other planets. In

many respects, Mars is the most Earth-

like planet in the Solar System. Scientists

believe Mars once had a more Earth-like

environment early in its history, with a

thicker atmosphere and abundant water

that was lost over the course of hundreds

of millions of years. Studies are on the way

on how to achieve this again. Meanwhile,

people interested in space travel can book

seats with Virgin Galactic.

THE TWO SPEED WORLD

It has been “two speed world” for years

but 2020 brought it to the forefront.

It’s everywhere you look. Globally,

unemployment figures are soaring. So is

the stock market. A large part of worldwide

stimulus packages did not find their way

into the real economy but ended up creating

liquidity-driven asset bubbles.

Traditionally, the two speed world referred

to divergences in growth rates between the

rich but slow growing developed world on

the one hand, and the poor but fast growing

emerging markets on the other. Over time,

these fault lines are being seen within

societies—between the rich and the poor,

between geographies within countries,

between the educated and the uneducated.

The paradox of the prosperity of the last

few decades has been that even as the

Gini Coefficient – the standard measure of

5

inequality -- is reducing between countries,

it is rising within many countries. The US

currently has a Gini coefficient of 0.48.

This was 0.43 in 1990, and 0.37 in 1970,

indicating an overall increase in income

inequality over the last 50 years. Europe

has a similar story. At the same time, driven

by the very same forces, for the world as a

whole, the Gini Coefficient has fallen from

0.71 in 2000 to 0.63 today, indicating cross-

border income conversions. Naturally, a

“flat world” and the reality behind these

statistics do not seem fair to many.

And to many, our current social and

political constructs seem inadequate, too

ponderous and prone to elite capture. The

Brexit vote in the UK in 2016 and Trump’s

victory later that year were driven by

such economic anxieties. In the western

world, as intergenerational mobility

“And to many, our current social and political constructs seem inadequate, too ponderous and prone to elite capture.

The Brexit vote in the UK in 2016 and Trump’s victory later that year were driven by such economic anxieties.”

declined significantly, relative standards

of living fell and the social contract broke.

Naturally, resentments against economic

orthodoxy gained ground. The visible

aspects of a globalised world—immigrants,

trade, and financial markets—all came

under scrutiny and criticism. Worse, the

elite, those in charge of running the world,

which included not just the rich but also the

intelligentsia and part of the upper middle

class, displayed complete ignorance about

the undercurrent of sentiment building in

society at large—which was the reason that

Brexit and Trump waves caught everyone

by surprise.

Consider some facts from this year: The

IMF warned that the number of people

in extreme poverty was likely to rise

substantially this year, for the first time in

20 years, while income inequality across

emerging and developing economies

could rise to levels last seen in 2008,

reversing all the gains made since the

global financial crisis.xvi In the aftermath of

COVID-19 pandemic, the divides became

stark: those unable to work remotely —

disproportionately likely to be low paid,

young or from an ethnic minority — have

been far harder hit by the virus, both in

health outcomes and in job and income

losses. The US government’s data shows

that the week before Thanksgiving—

America’s biggest feast day—5.6 million

households struggled to put enough food on

the table.xvii At the same time, as 21 percent

of all US dollars ever printed were printed

in 2020, America’s top 644 billionaires saw

their wealth skyrocket by a collective US

$1 trillion. Not surprisingly, in spite of his

inept record, Donald Trump got 8.3 million

more votes in 2020 than in 2016.

This K-shaped recovery is showing up

in business data as well. India’s small

businesses are struggling while the Indian

stock market is the most expensive in the

world. Brokerage house Motilal Oswal

pointed out that 34 out of 50 companies in

the Nifty50 index have seen an expansion

in EBITDA margin in the July-September

quarter, even though volumes have

declined, while smaller companies have

struggled with cash flow. In the July-

September quarter, ex-financials, Nifty

reported 310 basis point EBITDA margin

expansion on a year-on-year basis. Sajjid

Chinoy of JP Morgan, one of Asia’s most

prominent economists, and a member of

the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory

Council, recently wrote an Op Ed citing

that the Indian economic recovery is led

by profits at the expense of wages and has

implications for demand, inequality and

policyxviii.

Such inequities are not a one-time

aberration. A recent investor memo from

Marcellus Investments reported a rather

scary statistic: The share of profit of the

largest 20 Indian companies in proportion

to the total profit of all companies has

moved from 15% to 70% in the last 30

years. It’s a steep curve.

Source: The Economist

A Harvard Business Review article last year

by Vijay Govindrajan and others exposed

what they called the small size trap.xix Over

the last two decades, it has become harder

for small companies in the US to “escape”

their class: “Whereas, until 2000, 15% to

20% of small companies became medium-

sized or even large companies each year,

this percentage was cut in half by 2017.

We find similar evidence in the large size

category. Until 2000, 75% to 80% of large

companies remained in their group next

year, but that percentage increased to 89%

recently.” Entrepreneurship, start-ups and

disruption are nearly not enough to spread

the evenly spread the spoils of capitalism!

All this is making Thomas Piketty mainline

again. If Piketty is too left-wing for you, try

Harvard’s Michael Sandel, whose course

titled “Justice” has been taken by more

than 15,000 students, making it one of the

most highly attended in Harvard’s history.

His latest book, The Tyranny of Merit, was

published a few months ago and highlights

the hubris a meritocracy generates

amongst the winners and the harsh

judgement it imposes on those left behind.

The meritocratic ideology would not be

so much of a problem, Sandel notes, if we

didn’t see a connection between success,

remuneration, merit and a person’s value

to society. Something to think about over

the holidays!

Financial years ending MarchSouce: MarcellusInvestment Managers

Over-relianceIndia, top 20 companies by profits*As % of total corporate net income+

1994 2000

Top five

Next 15

05 10 15 19

0

20

40

60

*In any given year, three-year average+20,200 private and public companies

CLOSING THOUGHTS

On a lighter note, two headlines

from earlier this month stand out.

First: Adolf Hitler wins election.

Second: William Shakespeare gets COVID

vaccine. Go figure! I believe there are other

developments from 2020 that will shape

the world in the years to come. Biden’s

victory is a landmark event, not just for the

US, but also for the world. However, it will

be constrained by the current Republican

control of the Senate. And, if one thinks

of The Trump era as an outlier, the Biden

administration will return the US to its

“normal” course that is expected from a

centrist Democrat in the White House. As

Boris & Co are diverted by the UK’s fishing

quotas and the like, a “No-Deal” Brexit,

which has already swallowed two British

prime ministers, will become a reality

starting January 1st next year.

As the world moves from bilateralism

to multilateralism, it will have profound

changes in geopolitics. Alignments will be

more issue-based and tactical. The ability

of the Middle Powers like India to shape the

world will increase. The world will probably

get used to “westlessness”, a term from the

annual Munich Security Conference earlier

this year.

Every once in a while, the impossible will

happen, as it did when the crown prince

of Saudi Arabia and the prime minister

of Israel met secretly to discuss how to

contain the Iran threat. On the flip side, we

are already seeing that businesses will be

drawn into geopolitical confrontations and

will be used as pawns.

The forces will intersect: global warming

and the resulting opening up of the Arctic

sea routes will revive Russia’s geopolitical

importance. Happy accidents will continue

to propel us forward, as they have often

done: In phase 3 of the COVID-19

vaccine trials, when Oxford/AstraZeneca

researchers accidently gave a wrong dose

to a volunteer, they found that the vaccine

was 90 percent effective if administered at

a half dose and then at a full dose, and only

62 percent effective if administered in two

full doses.

Even though the seductive appeal of

nationalism, populism and protectionism

will prevail in the near term, ultimately the

pendulum of globalisation will swing again

towards integration. In the meantime,

the world is likely to suffer from what

mathematician and culture expert Peter

Turchin has called “elite overproduction”,

as reported in an eerily prophetic essay in

The Atlantic earlier this month, and many

will convert into counter-elites and the

rising insecurity will become expensive for

societyxx.

Until this year, outside of the pharma

world, few knew that India has the largest

vaccine manufacturing capacity in the

world, accounting for 60 percent of global

production. Just one city, Hyderabad,

the “vaccine capital of the world”, has the

medical infrastructure to meet one-third of

global vaccine demand.

At a personal level, the year 2020

reinforced Coco Chanel’s perspective that

in life, the best things are actually free and

the second best things are the ones that are

very expensive!

To sum up, noted physicist Robert

Oppenheimer’s world view was possibly

the most prescient: “The optimist thinks

this is the best of all possible worlds. The

pessimist fears it is true.” Folks, take your

pick.

Gaurav Dalmia is Chairman of Dalmia Group Holdings

END NOTES

i World Health Organization, Weekly Operational Update on COVID-19, November 2020,

Geneva, WHO, https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-operational-update---

30-november-2020ii World Health Organization, https://covid19.who.int/iii David Elliot,“Germany drafting law to give people the legal right to work from home,”

World Economic Forum, October 2020,

weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/germany-is-set-to-make-home-working-a-legal-

right/#:~:text=Germany%20will%20publish%20a%20draft,overhauling%20their%20

remote-working%20policies.iv Lafcadio Hearn, “ China and the Western World,” The Atlantic, April,1896, https://www.

theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1896/04/china-and-the-western-world/306398/v Juan Carlos, “Visualizing China’s Economic Growth in the Past 30 Years,” Howmuch.net,

https://howmuch.net/articles/chinas-economic-growth-perspectivevi Gebremichael Kibreab Habtom et al., “China’s path of rural poverty alleviation through

health care financing: The case of Taijiang County-Guizhou Province,” Journal of Public

Administration and Policy Research, 2019, https://academicjournals.org/journal/

JPAPR/article-full-text-pdf/2B4B54462052vii Laura Silver, Kat Devlin and Christine Huang, Unfavorable Views of China Reach

Historic Highs in Many Countries, Washington DC, Pew Research Centre, October

2020, pp. 4, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-

of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/?utm_content=bufferc0664&utm_

medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=bufferviii Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Global Report on Internal Displacement,

Geneva, May 2019, https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/

grid2019/#insideix Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Budget 2020, https://www.globalcarbonproject.

org/carbonbudget/20/infographics.htmx International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2019, Paris, June 2019, https://www.

iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019xi Bill Gates, “Future of Food,” Gates Notes, 2013, https://www.gatesnotes.com/about-bill-

gates/future-of-foodxii Shashank Raj, “SpaceX breaks its own record, reuses a Falcon 9 for a seventh time

for a Starlink launch,” The Techportal, November 25, 2020, https://thetechportal.

com/2020/11/25/spacex-breaks-its-own-record-reuses-a-falcon-9-for-a-seventh-time-

for-a-starlink-launch/xiii Andre Tartar and Yue Qiu, The New Rockets Racing to Make Space Affordable,

Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-rocket-cost/

xiv Nadia Drake, “Elon Musk: A Million Humans Could Live on Mars By the 2060s,” National

Geographic, September 27, 2016, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/09/

elon-musk-spacex-exploring-mars-planets-space-science/ xv Elon Musk (@elonmusk), November 18, 2020, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/

status/1329102718988922883xvi World Economic Outlook, A Long and Difficult Ascent, International Monetary

Fund, Washington DC, October 2020, pp 34, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/

WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020#Chapter%201:%20

Global%20Prospects%20and%20Policiesxvii Joseph Llobrera, “As Thanksgiving Approaches, Fewer Than Half of Households

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