strategy as options on the future sirikanya buranabunpot (peggy) huiyuan ding hsiu-ying shen...
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Strategy as Options on the Future
Sirikanya Buranabunpot (Peggy)Huiyuan DingHsiu-Ying ShenWannaporn Srinives (Rainy)
By Peter J. Williamson
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Why a portfolio of strategic options is important?
• Inaccurate forecast• “Hopeless” strategy due to
forecast errors• Flexibility to dynamic market
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Required investments for strategic options
• Developing new capabilities• Learning about new, potential mar
kets
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4 Steps to Build Strategic Options
1. Uncover the hidden constraints
2. Establish processes
3. Optimize the portfolio
4. Combine planning and opportunism
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Step 1 Uncover the Hidden Constraints
• Create a profit-generating engine – Capabilities– Knowledge of new potential markets
• Narrow capabilities and market knowledge– Example: Frank Winfield Woolworth
Knowledge of New Potential Markets
Existing
Strategy Ambitions
Capabilities
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Step 1 Uncover the Hidden Constraints
• The Trader– Knowing valuable market information
but no capability to explicit and create value
• Need to systemically to expand its value-creating capability
Knowledge of New Potential Markets
Trader
Capabilities
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Step 1 Uncover the Hidden Constraints
• The Prisoner– Strong capabilities but are prisoner
of their lack of market knowledge
• Need to build its knowledge base of the market
Knowledge of Markets
Prisoner
Capabilities
Global Supply
Variety
Service
Cost Control
Quality
Technology
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Step 2 Establish Processes
• Cost-effective methods of expanding knowledge and building new capabilities– Leveraging customers’ and suppliers’ knowledge– Learning from maverick competitors and related i
ndustries. – Partnership with leading-edge suppliers– Exchange of technical information– Purchase of minority equity stakes in suppliers wi
th potentially innovative technologies
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Step 2 Establish Processes- ACER
• Tap into US markets to explore its potential global competitiveness
• Concentrate on understanding the Asian consumers
• Partner with local companies when enter a new market• Minimize the costs of unexercised options
Knowledge of
New Markets
Capabilities
Localization
Global Logistics
Lead Technology
Brand Building
Cost and Flexibility
Asia, US Latin America Europe
Creating New Strategic Options
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Step 3 Optimize the portfolio
• Two driving factors– Alternative capabilities might profitably meet
probable customers’ needs– Potential future market characteristics and c
ustomer behaviors
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Step 3 Optimize the portfolio
• Scenario planning processes1. Create a table of main alternatives2. Identify the technically feasible options3. Decide whether to add that particular option
into the strategic portfolio
• 3 considerations– Costs of creation and maintaining the options– Estimated probability to exercise the options– Probability to spawn future options
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Step 3 Optimize the portfolio
• The cost of creating an option• The cost of exercising that option• Decisions depends on trade-off betwe
en the estimated value of an option and the cost of creating it, not the cost of exercising it.
Scenario Planning Process
Cost of Creating an option
Cost of Exercising the option
Scaling up into a profit-generating
business
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Step 4 Combine planning and opportunism
• Through timely opportunism, turn an unexpected opportunity to company’s advantage
• Through bounded opportunism, rule out the options wandering from its long-term mission
“Is it a weed or a flower?”
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Recap of Strategic Options
• Traditional strategic planning draws from imprecise forecasts
• The importance of developing new capabilities and knowledge of new market segments
• Four steps to establish a portfolio of future options
• Optimize a portfolio of strategic options to gain sustained competitive advantages
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Questions?
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Disney’s Article
• Pushing a mandate for the digital age– Consumers must be able to use Disney content
whenever they want it• Technology changes• Sell episodes of ABC hits online—Portable
video devices, iPod, etc.• Plan to deliver entertainment over
cellphones• Game for mature players• Has to worry more about the growing
problem of unauthorized digital copies
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HSBC’s Article
• Climate change is one of the biggest environmental challenge in this century—working together for future generation
• Bank and greenhouse gas emissions—carbon
• 643,000 tonnes of emission• HSBC would become carbon neutral
by the start of 2006—carbon management plan
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How to forecast sales—IBP!!!
• Estimating and making educated guesses
• Step1: Breaking your business into units—estimate the pieces and add up to the whole—price * units
• Example: restaurant—seats, peak hours, average consumption per person
• Search for expert forecasts in the industry area to help breaking down
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Recommend Reading
Sun Tzu: The Art of War• The strategies can be
applied in business and everyday use
• Cover all from planning to intelligence
• Easy and short!