strategies and policy/technology instruments for ...€¦ · delhi 2050 2010 2050 2050 2010 2010...

Strategies and Policy/Technology Instruments for Sustainable Land Use and Transport

- International Comparisons -

Yoshitsugu Hayashi Director, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport

and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan

Chair, Scientific Committee of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society)

7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 1

PUTTING TRANSPORT INTO

CLIMATE POLICY AGENDA

World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS)

http://www.wctrs.org/

December 2011

URGENT!

There is an urgent need to involve transport as a major sector in the climate change negotiation. WCTRS could

help UNFCCC and the IPCC to promote this process.

WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research

Society) The WCTRS covers multi-modal, multi-disciplinary, and multi-sectoral fields. The

members span almost all aspects of transportation research, planning, policy and

management. The World Conferences held every 3 years mirror this breadth of

interests. 67 countries are represented in the WCTRS, with more than 1,500

members.

President: Anthony May (University of Leeds, UK)

Chair of Scientific Committee: Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya University, Japan)

WCTRS SIG11 (Special Interest Group11) - Transport and the Environment

The SIG11 aims at seeking ways to establish effective mechanisms for mitigating environmental

degradation due to transport in the international domain. The following topics are researched: a)

Comparing the emission of greenhouse gas and air pollution between countries and cities, b)

Diagnosing transport system and its resulting global and local environmental degradation and

prescribing countermeasure policies, and developing an evaluation system of their performance, c)

Providing scientific instruments for evaluation of international mechanism for environmentally

sustainable transport and the methods to collect the necessary financial resources.

Contact:

Hayashi and Kato Laboratory, International Center for Sustainable

Transport and Cities (SUSTRAC), Graduate School of

Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan

Address: 464-8603, C1-2, Nagoya, Japan

TEL: +81-52-789-2773

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: http://www.sustrac.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/

Global Environment Research Fund (S-6-5), Ministry of Environment,

Japan

Graduate School of Environmental Studies & Global COE Program “From

Earth Science to Basic and Clinical Environmental Studies”,

Nagoya University, Japan

College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, China

Sponsored by:

Supported by:

- Recommendations from WCTRS to COP17 -


3

School boy waiting for a bus at 4:30 am in Suburb of Bangkok(1993)

Bangkok Post 4 Sept 1993

7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University

4

Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)

Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd., Bangkok

8hr+ Commuters > 10% (1993)


Bike Taxi in Bangkok

Photo by Hayashi (1993)

Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)



Econ. Growth

Rise of Income

Increment of car ownership

Increment of car use

Urbanization

Expansion of urban area

Increment of VKT

Rising costs to supply

infrastructure

Excessive

Traffic

demand

Insufficiency of Road

Traffic congestion

Obstacle to

progress of

economy

Econ.

Problems from local to global

Env. Level of Technology

Increment of energy

consumption

Insufficient Public

Transport

Motorization

Urban Sprawl

Development of

Infrastructure

Bottleneck of Traffic

Sift to low-emission mode（SHIFT）

Restraint of unnecessary demand（AVOID）

Improvement of emission factor（IMPROVE）

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

GDP per Capita US$ (1995)

Car

s p

er 1

,00

0 in

hab

itan

ts

London

Tokyo Bangkok

Seoul

Hong kong

Singapore (CA)

‘95

‘95

‘90

‘90

‘90

‘95 ‘00

‘85

‘85 ‘80

‘80

‘95

‘95 ‘00

‘70

‘60

Nagoya

Shanghai

‘95

‘02

Beijing

* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 7

Moscow

‘02 ‘99

Road Infrastructure Supply vs.

Motorization Level vs. Peak Hour Speed

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0246810

Bangkok

Tokyo

London

Nagoya

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Bangkok

Tokyo

London

Nagoya

1972

1986

1993

1971

1988

1972

1987

1993

1972

1988

1972

1986

1993

1972

1993

1971

1988

Ro

ad le

ng

th p

er c

ar(m

/c

ar)

Car ownership(car/1,000 inhabitants) Speed (min/km)

Shanghai


Motorization & Road Supply

Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 9 7June2012

Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 10

Urban area

Transport

Frequency

Public Transport

Improvement

Fuel

Economy

Level of

congestion

Road

Improvement

LEV Ratio

Concentration

of urban activity

× ×

Trip Generation Degree of Car dependence Technical Level

Total Trip Length

year year

Emission Factor

year

Modal Share

＝

year

Emission

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Total

7June2012

× ×

CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments)

Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 11 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve

Reduce need to travel

Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes

Improve road network

Improve vehicles and fuels

Technology TOD Pedestrian

friendly urban design

Rail/bus infrastructure

IMTS

LEV Alternative fuel

Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/tram priorities

TDM

Emission standard Top runner program

Information Teleworki

ng

Car sharing

Awareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-drive

IT/ITS IT / ITS

Economy

Locational Subsidy

Fuel tax Road pricing

Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy

LEV preferential tax

7June2012

Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 12 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve


Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes






IMTS


Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/tram priorities

TDM



ng

Car sharing

Awareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-drive

IT/ITS IT / ITS

Economy

Locational Subsidy




Tokyo, London, Singapore

Urban Compaction

Transit Oriented

Development (TOD)

Railway development

7June2012

CUTE Matrix: Avoid

London

Tokyo Nagoya

Bangkok

0 50 km 1910

1965

1985

Change in Built-up Areas Changes in Built-up Areas

AVOID AVOID

* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 13

Tokyo

max. 1 5 , 4 0 0

London

max. 1 1 , 5 0 0

Nagoya

max. 1 7 , 1 0 0

Bangkok

max. 4 2 , 2 0 0 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 7June2012 14

AVOID

Transit Oriented Development

7June2012 15

source: left: http://11.pro.tok2.com/~mu3rail/link156.html http://w3land.mlit.go.jp/WebGIS/index.html right: Google maps

2012 1970

1. Purchased undeveloped land

2. Improved the infrastructure and constructed new railway

• Supermarket in station, department store in city terminal, leisure site in terminal

3. Sold the land again

• Restore the development benefits TOD without public investment

New town construction by Tokyu Railway Company Around Tana Station, Yokohama city

Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University

http://11.pro.tok2.com/~mu3rail/link156.html

http://w3land.mlit.go.jp/WebGIS/index.html

Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve


Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes






IMTS


Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/tram priorities

TDM



ng

Car sharing

Awareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-drive

IT/ITS IT / ITS

Economy

Locational Subsidy




Rail Improvement

Bangkok, Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai, London

Mass Transit System for Urban/Sububan Lines

Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 7June2012 16

CUTE Matrix: Shift


Tokyo Seoul Shanghai Singapore London

Area

(km2)

615

(15,000)

606

(1,900)

600

(2,900) 700

319

(18,000)

Population

(million) 8.8

(35.2)

9.9

(19.9)

10.0

(18.4) 4.5

3.0

(20.0)

Urban

railway

(km)

292 338 420 138 652

Avg car

speed

(km/h)

26 17 20 32 26

(): 2010 data of urban area in the Metropolitan Region (source: demographia)

7June2012

18

car11%

bus5%rail

48%

walk22%

cycle14%

Tokyocar26%

bus33%

rail36%

walk4%

cycle1%

Seoul

car20%

bus29%

rail4%

walk27%

cycle20%

Shanghai

(2008) (2004)

(2009) (2007)


car25%

bus19%rail

17%

walk36%

cycle3%

London

(23wards)

(Inner London)

(city)

(city)

7June2012

Inner TOKYO 23Wards O

D

Outer

TOKYO

Inner

TOKYO

23

Wards

Outer TOKYO

Total : 3. 07 million trip/day Total : 0.35 illion trip/day

Total : 3.06 million trip/day Total : 7.2 million trip/day

Car Rail Bus/Tram Cycle Walk

8%3%

65%

10%14%

17%1%

78%

1% 3%

4%1%

94%

0%1%

46%

3%

29%

9%13%

Tokyo

5km

10km

15km

5km

10km

15km

© Y. Hayashi & S.Lee

Urban Railway Network


Tokyo Seoul Total Line Length 2,313 476 km City 292 338 km Hinterland 2,021 138 km

7June2012

Seoul

5km

10km

15km

Shanghai

Urban Railway Network


London

5km

10km

15km

Tokyo Seoul Shanghai London

Total Line Length (km) 2,313 476 729 1,401

City (km) 292 338 420 652

Hinterland (km) 2,021 138 309 749

7June2012 21

Photo by Hayashi(2002)

SHIFT


After SHIFT

7June2012 22

Mass-transit Network of Future

Bangkok

2010 84.8km

planning：

2016 236km

2019 391km

2029 509km （12lines）

Master Plan Study to adjust rail mass

transit system in Bangkok and its

vicinity（2010）

SHIFT


SHIFT

7June2012 23

CO2 Emission Reduction from Passenger Car by Railway Development


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1000 10000 100000 1000000

Pas

sen

ger-

car-

ori

en

ted

CO

2e

mis

sio

n c

han

ge r

ate

GRP per capita [US$ in 2003]

Shanghai

Beijing

Delhi

2050

2010

2050

2050

201020102010 Bangkok

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Pas

sen

ger

cars

per

100

0 in

hav

itan

ts

GRP per capita [US$ in 2003]

Nagoya

Tokyo

Shanghai

Beijing

Delhi

Bangkok

1993

2050

20502050

2050

19651965

2005

2005

1993

1999

Without Railway

Development during mature stage

（2030～2050）

Developed during early stage

（2010～2030）

SHIFT SHIFT

If railway might be developed

during early stage, 36% of

CO2 can be reduced. If

including technological

innovation, around 80-86% of

CO2 can be reduce.

(2010年排出量＝1)

Pas

sen

ger

Car

Ow

ner

ship（

Car

/10

00

per

son）

GRP par capita （US dollars in 2003）

GRP par capita （US dollars in 2003） Ch

ange

of

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n f

orm

PC （c

om

par

ing

20

10）

By 2050, railway will be developed as same level in Tokyo in 2005.

* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.

25 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University

SHIFT

Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve


Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes






IMTS


Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/tram priorities

TDM



ng

Car sharing

Awareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-drive

IT/ITS IT / ITS

Economy

Locational Subsidy




Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

MRT LRT

development Singapore &

Seoul Hierarchically

Integrated Transport

Bus priority (BRT)

IT/ITS operation

system

PT fare system


CUTE Matrix: Shft

Recent Expansion Plan for the City Centre and

Railway Network in Singapore

(Sun, G., LTA)

Marina Bay development (2008)


Bukit Panjang LRT

• 8 km, 14 stations

• Opened in 1999

(Sun, G., LTA)

Sengkang LRT

• 11km, 14 stations

• Integrated with Sengkang MRT

• Fully-automated system

• Opened in 2003

Punggol LRT

• 10km, 15 stations

• Integrated with Punggol MRT

• Fully-automated system

• Opened in 2005

LRT Integrated with MRT in Singapore


SHIFT

Status of Existing Bus Lanes (2005)

• Exclusive median bus lanes: 7 lines/ 84km

• Curbside bus lanes: 293.6km

■ Expansion Plan (13 lines / 192 km)

Before After

Source: GyengChul Kim

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Seoul


SHIFT

Increase - Network capacity new bus route +BRT - Bus ridership - Bus frequency (Keep Interval) Decrease - Total bus operation cost > Increase - Bus company revenue > Decrease - Subsidy of SMG Source: GyengChul Kim

Hierarchical BRT System in Seoul


SHIFT

Source: GyengChul Kim

Integrated Bus-Subway Operation in Seoul Bus interval management

Safe operation

Providing dynamic

information to public


SHIFT

Electric Fare System (Smart card)

32

•Distance based fare (no change for transfers)

• Data collection for traffic management

• Non-transit applications (e.g. retail purchases, mileages)

Seoul (2004-) Singapore (2002-)


SHIFT

Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve


Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes






IMTS


Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/tram priorities

TDM



ng

Car sharing

Awareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-drive

IT/ITS IT / ITS

Economy

Locational Subsidy





Road pricing

IT/ITS operation

system

Car ownership &

parking control

Emission Standard

Singapore & London Car Traffic Control

7June2012

CUTE Matrix: Shift + Improve

Singapore

Vehicle Quota System

(VQS)

• Introduced in 1990

• Certificate of Entitlement

(COE)

– valid for 10 years

– Bid the COE

Shanghai

License Plate Auction System

• Introduced in 1997

• Bid license plates of vehicles

• The price exceeds 60,000yuan ($9,540) in 2012

(Sun, G., LTA)

Car Ownership Control


SHIFT

Off-Street Parking Control in London •Maximum car parking space by land use

Location Marginal floor area (m2) to add one parking space

Central London (CAZ) 1,000 – 1,500

Inner London 600 – 1,000

Outer London 100 – 600

Employment car parking standard

Residential car parking standard

Predominant housing type

Car parking provision

4+ bed units 2 – 1.5 spaces

3 bed units 1.5 – 1 space

1 – 2 bed units 1 to less than 1

•Maximum car parking space by Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL)


SHIFT

On-Street Parking Control in Tokyo

• In principle, parking is prohibited on the road

• parking meters are installed in some of the road

• Management by the police

Tokyo St.

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

4 wheel

2wheel

Number of cars parked in the streets in Tokyo [cars]


SHIFT

Area Licensing Scheme (ALS)

• Implemented in 1975

• Reduced traffic entering the

Restricted Zone (RZ)

Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)


• Replaced manual ALS

(Sun, G., LTA)

Road Pricing in Singapore


SHIFT

65 kph 45 kph

Increase

ERP rate Decrease

ERP rate

Expressways

30 kph 20 kph

Increase

ERP rate

Decrease

ERP rate

Arterial Roads

• ERP is a congestion management tool

• Pay-as-you-use principle

• Review speed range at 3-month interval, adjust ERP rates

Courtesy of Mohinder Singh, LTA

traffic.smart

Application of ITS

Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)


SHIFT

Road Pricing in London

39

Congestion Charge


• The Zone of City Centre

• Exemption introduced in 2011

for LEVs (EURO5, EV/PHV etc)

Low Emission Zone


• Freight vehicles and coaches

• The whole city (GLA)

• EURO3 standard


SHIFT

Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve


Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes






IMTS


Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/tram priorities

TDM



ng

Car sharing

Awareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-drive

IT/ITS IT / ITS

Economy

Locational Subsidy




Emission Standard

Japan Top Runner Program

Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 40 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 7June2012

CUTE Matrix: Improve

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

1996 2001 2006 2011

g-P

M /

kW

h

PM

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

1996 2001 2006 2011

g-N

ox

/ kW

h Japan

EU

US

China

Thailand

NOx

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1995 2000 2005 2010

An

nu

al a

vera

ge

[m

g /

m3]

PM

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

1995 2000 2005 2010

An

nu

al a

vera

ge

[pp

m]

NO2 NO

Euro2

Euro3

Euro4

Euro5

Euro2

Euro3

Euro4,5

Atmospheric Concentrations of NOx and PM around roads in Japan

Source: Ministry of Environment ,Japan, www.env.go.jp/air/osen/index.html 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 41

IMPROVE


Top Runner Program with vehicles List of the Specified 21 Appliances

Passenger VehiclesFreight VehiclesAir ConditionersElectric RefrigeratorsElectric FreezersElectric Rice CookersMicrowave OvensFluorescent LightsElectric Toilet SeatsTV Sets (CRT, LCD, Plasma)Video Cassette RecordersDVD RecordersComputersMagnetic Disk UnitsCopying MachinesSpace HeatersGas Cooking AppliancesGas Water HeatersOil Water HeatersVending MachinesTransformers

at the time of standards establishment

Target year

19km/L

18km/L

17km/L

15km/L 15km/L

14km/L

13km/L

12km/L

16

Fuel Efficiency (km/L)

target value

Weighted average value for each product category

7June2012

IMPROVE

Strategy

Instrument

Avoid Shift Improve


Reduce car use

Improve alternative

modes






IMTS


Regulation

Compact city

Mix land use

Access permits

Bus/tram priorities

TDM



ng

Car sharing

Awareness campaign

Bus location system

Eco-drive

IT/ITS IT / ITS

Economy

Locational Subsidy




7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 43 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

LEV subsidy LEV preferential

tax

Japan Greening Taxation

CUTE Matrix: Improve

Effects of Tax and Subsidy Policies

7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 44 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

Fuel economy [km/l]

Observed Estimation

Sales base

Real running

EV

HV

NGV

LPG

Methanol

Ownership base

Greening taxation

Greening taxation

Methanol-fueled vehicle LPG-fueled vehicle Natural gas vehicle Hybrid vehicle Electrical vehicle

Year

No. of vehicles

Top Runner Program

Top Runner Program

IMPROVE

Increase in Low Emission Cars

7June2012 45

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

EV

HV

[vehicle]

Year

HV : 1,418,400

(2.54 % of total

passenger cars)

EV : 16,800

(0.03 % of total

passenger cars)


IMPROVE

Scenario for Improvement of Power Source and Fuel in the Case of Bangkok


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO

2Em

issi

on

Fac

tor[

g-C

O2

/km

]

Year

CO2 Emission Factor for Passenger Vehicle * Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.

FCV

EV

HV

GV

IMPROVE IMPROVE

• Scenario for CO2 Emission Factor Improvement was set based on estimation in

Japan

• Production of electricity will be estimated based on scenario “increased use of

renewable energy”

Lower level

Upper level

Scenario for Low-emission Vehicle Diffusion


IMPROVE IMPROVE

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Nu

mb

er

of re

gis

tere

d V

eh

icle

[‘0

00]

Year

二輪GV

二輪EV

普通GV

HV

普通EV

Gasoline Motorcycle Electric Motorcycle Gasoline Passenger Car Hybrid Passenger Car Electric Passenger Car

Based on Estimation in Japan, passenger car using gasoline will be 0% with the scenario that motorcycle will sift to passenger car,

* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.

Identifying A Necessary Policy Package

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

CO

2e

mis

sio

ns

fro

m p

asse

nge

r ca

rs in

Ban

gko

k (M

t/ye

ar) AVOID

SHIFTIMPROVE

Mitigation from

2050

Do Nothing

CO2 mitigation Scenario

SHIFT

IMP

RO

VE

AV

OID

70%

Extensive Measures Needed for Low-Carbon Transport

IMPROVE


49

Energy Source

Mo

dal

Sh

are

MC

PC Gasoline

Rail Electricity

Public

Bus Diesel CNG

Comprehensive Strategy to Achieve CO2 Emission Reduction Target

Electricity

Diesel

CNG Biomass

Gasoline

Electricity

Diesel CNG

Gasoline

-50%

-30%

From the view point of energy consumption



Urban area

Transport

Frequency

Public Transport

Improvement

Fuel

Economy

Level of

congestion

Road

Improvement

LEV Ratio

Concentration

of urban activity

× ×

Trip Generation Degree of Car dependence Technical Level

Total Trip Length

year year

Emission Factor

year

Modal Share

＝

year

Emission

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Total

7June2012

× ×

Conclusion

• CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments) for

• Decomposition for understand Urban Transport Emission: , and

• Back-casting approach for seeking effective combinations

• Scenario and Roadmap


Conclusion

• To realize the low-carbon society, leapfrog development is necessary in Asian developing cities.

• Thus, the future vision of low-carbon society which will achieve huge reduction of CO2 emission should be established firstly.

• Impacts of each avoid, sift and improve measures should be clarified.

• Then, thier effective combinations should be examined through backcasting approach.

• Finally the available scenario should be set up for the roadmap of each city.


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