strategic campaign planning & implementation adapted from strategic campaign planning &...
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STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING & IMPLEMENTATION Adapted from Strategic Campaign Planning & Implementation. Assemblyman Joseph D. Morelle, Chair; Monroe County Democratic Committee. April 2008. Political Campaigns - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN PLANNING &
IMPLEMENTATION
Adapted from Strategic Campaign Planning & Implementation. Assemblyman Joseph D. Morelle, Chair; Monroe
County Democratic Committee. April 2008
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Political Campaigns The Art of communicating
effectively (persuasively) and efficiently with a given electorate in order to get enough of them to act in such a way (register, turn out, vote for, vote against, etc.) as to produce a victory for a question or candidate.
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Campaigns Are Lost Because…….of a
Failure to Communicate!
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Campaign Plan:
the Rational Frameworkvs.
the W.A.G.
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The Big Six
1. What are we going to do?2. Why are we doing it?3. When are we going to do it?4. Where are we going to do it?5. Who’s going to do it?6. How much does it cost?
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Develop Your StrategyHow you will win the election?Define Your Goals1. Persuading undecided2. Keep support you have3. Turnout your support4. Disregard those who are not with
you
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Identify Your Message Delivery System (Tactics)
1.The candidate2.Other people3.Mail 4.Phones5.Print6.Display7.Broadcast
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Manage Scarce Campaign Resources
1.Time2.Money3.People
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Who’s out there? - Demographics
What’s their politics? - Targeting
What do they care about? - Polling
Who are the candidates? - Gold & Skeletons
What’s the message? - Theme
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Demographics: Know Your Audience – Who’s out there?
- Polling- Voter Files- Census Data- Marketing Reports- Centers of Influence- Disciplined Observation
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Targeting - Helps to…….1.Determine Tendencies2.Answer the question “where” to:
o Arrange candidate appearanceso Place Lawn Signso Send Mailo Canvasso GOTV [get out the vote]
3. Directs scarce resources to target groups where there is the greatest potential for success:o Gender o Ageo Voting Frequencyo Registrationo Other
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Targeting• Targeting Task #1 – Determine Votes Needed
to WinoUsing like years, determine projected turnoutoMultiply current registration by projected turnout
percentageoDivide by 2 and add 1 = Votes Needed to Win
Example:Total Registered Voters in District: 10,000 x Average
Turnout: 53% = 5,300; 5,300 2 = 2,650 (+1) = 2,651 Votes Needed to win
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Targeting•Targeting Task #2 – Find the
Persuadable Voters
Subgroups within the Target:
oBlanks/IndependentsoRepublican FemalesoRepublican Seniors (over 65)
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TargetingTargeting Task #3 – Develop the Target
Group (Getting to 2,651)
Total Enrollment: Reps 5,000 Dems 4,000 Blanks 1,000
Likely Dem Turnout multiplied by projected vote % = # of voters: 2,120 x 85% = 1,802
Likely Rep & Blank Turnout in top 15 persuadable EDs: 2,485 x 35% = 869
1,802 + 869 = 2,671
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Issues & Attitudes - What do they care about?
o Sources1. News Stories2. Letters to the Editor3. Editorials4. Media “polls”
o Elected Officials1. Communications2. Opinions
o Validated Observations1. Candidate conversations with voters2. Campaign conversations - e.g. “The big issue is taxes”
Confirmations:o Attendance at budget hearingo School budget referendao Tax Grievances
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Candidate & Opposition Research
Strengths & Weaknesses
The Single Most Important Ingredient – Accuracy
o Applies to you and your opponent
1. Unpopular votes and acts
2. Popular votes and acts
3. Hypocritical Voters
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Candidate & Opposition ResearchStrengths & Weaknesses
o Effective / Ineffective Performance1. Attendance2. Promised vs. Delivered3. “Gots” List – what has been gotten by candidate?
o Personal conduct that relates to public performance
1. Tax payments2. Voting History3. Business Practices
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What Is The Message?Message = Theme
o Message (Theme)o Strategy (Goals)o Tacticso PlanWhat Is The Theme?1. Central Idea around which all communication
revolves2. The test you want voters to apply to the election3. The rationale for your candidacy – why they should
vote for you in this election4. Implies why they should not vote for your opponent
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Things That Are Not a Message or Themeo Buzzwordso Slogans
“Time For a Change”“Are You Ready for Nicoletti”“Keep on Zimmering”
o Issues- Jobs / Economy- Education- Health Care- Taxes- Crime
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Memorable [& not so memorable] Themes
Are you better off than you were four years ago? – Ronald Reagan
Mario Cuomo, Too Liberal Too Long – George Pataki
Putting People First – Bill Clinton
Let America Be America Again – John Kerry
Her only special interest is you – Gail Schaffer
We can do better – JFK
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Characteristics of a Good Theme1.Clear – Don’t make the voter think about
what you really mean2.Concise – Should be expressed in a single
sentence, or a short paragraph3.Compelling – It should speak to the values
and concerns of the voters4.Contrasting – It should lay out the differences
between you and your opponent5.Credible – It must be believable; you need to
demonstrate the theme
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Develop Your Campaign MessageStep-by-Step
Demographic profile of your constituency
Attitude profile of the voters
Coalition Profile (Target Group)
Make a list of you and your opponent’s strengths and challenges as candidates
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Clinton ’96 Dole ’96Strengths Strengths
•Youth•Compassionate/Caring•White House Experience•Economic Improvement•Certain Issues•Persuasive
•Legislative Skills•Governmental Experience•Integrity•Certain Issues•Military Heroism
Challenges Challenges•Slick, corner cutter, not believable•Lack of moral compass•Certain Issues•Inconsistent, lack of core belief•Lack of military experience
•Age•Mean image•Insider•Certain Issues•Legislative compromiser/Flip flops on issues/inconsistent record
Example
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Developing Your Campaign Message
Step-by-StepDraw lines of distinction between
candidates “Mirror Opposite” strengths and challenges and “Stand
Alone” strengths and challenges
Craft Message
Test Message: Questions to Ask
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Does Your Message Answer the Following Questions…
Why does your candidate want the job, and what will (s)he do with it?
Why is your candidate better than the opposition for the job?
What issues support the need for your candidate’s election?
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Test the Message
1. Appeal to the targeted groups2. Full advantage to mirror opposites3. Unique message? Too generic? Is it big
enough, loud enough, and obvious enough?
4. Is your candidate a credible messenger for the message?
5. Does it help to inoculate your weaknesses?
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Summary
1. The theme pervades every part of your plan.2. It evolves from the broad pictures you have
developed of your candidate, the voting public, and your opposition.
3. It should demonstrate your candidate’s strengths contrasted with your opponent's weaknesses.
4. It should speak to the values of your voters.5. It is the rationale for your campaign.
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One Last Word on Message…
Stay on message:if it’s not on message,
it’s off!
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Strategy “Strategy is the art of making use of time and space.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte
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Strategy1.Themes answer the question: Why are
you running?2.Strategy answers the question: How will
you win? Broad strokes defining what your
candidate needs to do in order to win the campaign. Using a combination of electoral results, turnout, and polling data, try to determine those actions that will increase votes for your candidate.
• Each of these actions is a “goal” • Collectively these goals are your strategy.
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Strategy Points Used Most Often In Winning Campaigns
1.Targeting the base vote plus a given percentage of other “persuadable” voters
2.Creating a clear contrast between you and your opponent
3.Building a diverse coalition of voters into a single voting block
4.Overwhelming the opposition with campaign activities
5.Creating a negative image of your opponent6.Creating a positive image of your candidate7.Building an organization capable of delivering a
significant number of votes8.Dividing voters along ideological lines
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Tactics“Good tactics can save even the worst strategy. Bad tactics will destroy even the best strategy.”
- General George S. Patton
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TacticsMail Plan Phone PlanWalk PlanEarned/Paid Media
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Message Vehicles In Low Visibility Campaigns1. In Person:
oThe CandidateoThe candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblingsoVolunteersoSurrogates
2. On the Phone:oThe candidateoThe candidate’s spouse, adult children, parents, siblingsoVolunteersoSurrogates
3. Direct Mail4. Display Advertising
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Delivering the Message
1. Follow the plan
2. Work from election day backwardso Generally focus on persuadables (swing districts)
and blank’s closest to election day
o Seniors and Democrats early on
3. Stay on message
4. Make it easy on the voter
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Candidate ActivityDoor-to-Door: Maximize the Impact
Candidate CoffeesForums & Debates
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Direct Mail
1. Follow the Plan
2. Work from Election Day backwards Clearly state Dominate Illustrate Validate
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Direct Mail3. Direct the mailing to the target group
or segments within the target group.
4. Types of Mail: Target Group Mail Segments of the Target Group Friend to Friend Interest Group Mail (seniors, vets,
etc.)
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Sample Direct Mail Plan MatrixPiece Target Topic Count
(HH’s)Cost Write
DatePrint Date Mail
Date Bio District
Wide (D, R, I, B, WF, C)
Introduction 4,883 $2002.03 10/4 10/7 10/10
Seniors All 65+ Healthcare / Quality of Life
1,147 $470.27 10/12 10/15 10/16
Prime Democrats
DemocratsDemocratic Values
2,165 $887.65 10/20 10/23 10/24
Education Semi-Prime Dems, Republican Women
Children / Education
2, 421 $992.61 10/23 10/26 10/28
Jobs Ds, Bs, Is, WFs
Economic Development
2,739 $1122.99 10/28 10/31 11/1
Total
$5475.55
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Direct Mail Tips1.Research tells us the average American
receives more than 1,000 messages a day.2.Current research tells us that new messages
take up to seven repetitions to break through the clutter.
3.A message is only conveyed if it is read and you’re competing with lots of other messages so design is important
4.Communications research tells us 4 out of 5 readers don’t go beyond photo captions and headlines
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Direct Mail Tips
5. Five photos every candidate should have: Portrait / headshot Family Community Service People / Constituents Message
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Direct Mail Tips
6. Get the message in the headline
7. Keep it brief
8. Avoid overstating
9. Fight boredom
10. Seed the mailing list
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Mail Sample 1
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Mail Sample 2
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Display Advertising For Local Low Visibility Campaigns
JUST LAWN SIGNS!!!No Billboards
No Bumper StripsNo ShirtsNo Pens
No Note Pads
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The Phone Canvass
Voter Identification & GOTV
1. Call the target group
2. Start the night the first direct mail piece arrives
3. Determine the number of calling hours needed to sweep target
HH’s x 65% = Calling Hours NeededAverage 15 Calls Per Hr
3070 HH’s x 65% = 133 HrsAverage 15 Calls Per Hr
Divided by 2 Hrs
133 = 67 2
Divided by the number of days until election eve
67 = 5.5 12
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The Phone Canvass1. Mark the sheets simply yes, no, or
undecided2. Follow-up options for undecided
voters Note from the volunteer Late mailing to all undecided voters
3. Start with Democrats4. Finish with Republicans and Blanks
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GOTV1. Robo Calls2. Election Eve lit drop3. Call only ID’d favorable voters4. Blind pull unidentified Dems
only if canvass produces near 70% favorable rates
5. Coordinating with Democratic Poll Inspectors
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Managing Campaign Resources1. Time
Scarcest resourceWork backwardsMatch campaign communications with voter’s
attention and decision making
2. Money - BudgetingDevelop from the planCost out all campaign activities Ideal vs. AlternativeDevelop fundraising plan and schedule to match
3. PeopleDevelop from the planEstimate how many “volunteer” hours needed for
each campaign activityDevelop plan for recruiting and managing people
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When Do Voters Start Paying Attention?
When Do They Decide Who They Will Vote For?
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When Do Voters Decide?1.Pay attention / decide early
Seniors More informed voters More partisan & straight ticket voters
2.Pay attention / decide late Voters under age 35, college students Less-informed voters Blanks, ticket splitters Absentees
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Election Day"There is only one decisive victory: the last." - Karl von Clausewitz, On War…