[email protected] suburban silver bullet: halve sov commutes goals: –remove many cars from...
TRANSCRIPT
Suburban Silver Bullet: Halve SOV Commutes• Goals:
– Remove many cars from suburban office parks• Current: 78% drive alone, 16% shared ride, 3% transit
– Intensify land use / reclaim parking lots
• What works? – $10/day parking (effective, but unpopular)– Hypothesis: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility
• PRT = Personal Rapid Transit• No “lifestyle sacrifice”• Year 2008 scenario.
Customer-Centered Product Research
Literature
Product Concept InterviewsExperts
Commute
Refined Concept Surveys Validation
• Silicon Valley style • New technology bias
– High touch / community building is natural– Takes on personality of researching organization
• Start with rough business case in mind and refine.
PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle• Feeder / Distributor / Circulator
– Similar to a monorail. Video
• High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. – Non-stop, 30 MPH– Bypasses intermediate stations– Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose– Convenient stops by buildings (not on street)– Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust– 24x7.
Stanford Research Park• In Palo Alto, CA• 20,000 jobs• Campus-style• Parent of Silicon
Valley• 50% asphalt• Commute Shed:
– 47% within 2 miles of Caltrain
– 49% within 10 miles
• 185 edge cities > Memphis
Promising Results (62 surveys)• Promising, but not definitive
• Solo commutes: 89% 45% – Carpool: 9% 32%, train: 0% 15.5% train– For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos (roughly)
• @ 350 s.f. per space 50 acres $326M hsng profit
• 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day– PRT: profitable (capital, O&M)
• Huge transit village land value increase
• Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers– 1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO2 .
Comprehensive, Integrated MobilityDoor to Door
Centralized Cars:share, rent, ride home
Delivery services, Personal activities, Business services
first mile Train
first mile Bus
Walk
Bike, scooter, Segway
Smart jitney, hitchhike
•Web/wireless coordination•Supportive policy context•Scale!
Short carpool pick up
first mileLong carpool
•Improved match-making•Shared parking, nuride
PRT shuttle system LAST MILE mid-day trips
Cellular Solutions
• Marauder’s Map (GPS)– Transit, rideshare connections
• Like NextBus
– Get home safe (Big Sister is watching).
Old transit village 20 acres
Jobs
Jobs
“New Suburbanist” Transit Village
New retail
New housing
Train Station
PRT shuttle system
Extended T.O.D. 1280 acres
Reduced auto dependence: < 50% SOV trips (for workers, residents, & shoppers.) Child/Senior mobility!
Business Services: Banks, PC store, copies, FedEx, legal, accounting, etc.
Personal Activities: Quality schools, day care, hiking, parks, movies, grocery, banks, restaurants, cafes, bars, grocery, gym, massage, yoga, dentist, etc.
Efficient: transit node + vibrant place, shared parking, lower living cost, less car ownership, more time. A new choice! (versus buying beyond the greenbelt).
Jobs/Housing Re-balance: workforce housing
Literature + Interviews + Surveys• Large solo driving reduction is hard • Last mile problem is very important
– Mid-day trips: 2X value of time– Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles
• Each commuter: basket of objections– PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient
• 30% time penalty: OK• Carpool psychology is complex:
– Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)– Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important
• Short Caltrain or carpool with PRT: OK• Customer support: eliminate nightmares• Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home• Good commute: “time went fast.”
PRT status• 2 companies developing
– Taxi 2000, Fridley (60’ track, 1 vehicle)– ULTra, Cardiff, Wales (1km track, 2 vehicles)
• Heathrow procurement
• Dubai procurement (no public review!).
PRT Investor Due Diligence• The Team – entrepreneurial cost control, etc.
– IBM vs. IBM skunk works. Golem Group
• Control system design (architect spends 1/3 of time writing documentation)
• Control system safety certification– Public utilities commission?– Each SW “version” requires painful re-certification
• Annual operating costs– Video surveillance, etc. – Insurance for the first system will be high
• Switch reliability (1 fail out of 2M trips 50 days)• Performance degrades near capacity (wave-offs).
PRT+D2D EconomicsANNUAL REVENUE $M/yearPRT farebox 4.9Caltrain increment 2.7Ads - personal + wraps 3.56,600 parking sp. reduction 4.0Eliminate bus shuttles 0.3$0.50 daily smart parking 1.3Use guideway for utilities 0.3 total 16.9
OTHER REVENUE $M50 acre housing profit 326.3-1% job turnover/yr 20.0Worker hsng preference ?35% retail sales increase ?cellular carrier preference ?Exclusive delivery franchises ?
COSTS $MPRT capital costs, 5 mi 50.0Shared, automated parking 4.9Annual PRT O&M 3.0Pedestrian landscaping ?ROW acquisition 0.0
