steve edburg assistant research professor laboratory for atmospheric research washington state...
TRANSCRIPT
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Steve Edburg
Assistant Research ProfessorLaboratory for Atmospheric Research
Washington State University
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My Background
• Large-eddy simulation (LES)– PhD work at WSU
• Earth system modeling (EaSM)– Postdoctoral work at UI
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SOIL
SUN
Gas emission from biological processes in forest and soil
FOREST
air + trace gases
INFLOW
Mixing & ChemicalReactions
Products and reactants from biosphere atmosphere
interaction
OUTFLOW
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LES Overview• Gap in knowledge: The role of turbulence on chemical
production or loss within a forest canopy is unknown
• Objective: Our objective was to determine if reaction rates are modified by intermittent turbulent structures
• Hypothesis: Our central hypothesis was that turbulent structures alter reactions rates by un-evenly mixing trace gases above the canopy with gases emitted from trees
• Goal: Use large-eddy simulation to determine the influence of coherent structures on trace gas reaction rates
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Side View Animation
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Top View Animation
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Scalar Segregation
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Earth System Modeling
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EaSM Overview
• Knowledge gap: Impact of bark beetle outbreak on carbon cycling is unknown
• Objective: Quantify the impact of bark beetles on carbon cycling across the western US
• Aims: – Create a regional insect disturbance product;– modify a Earth system model;– conduct simulations with and without outbreaks
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USDA Forest Service, 2004
In 2009,• 4.3 Mha/10.6 Macres affected by bark beetles• 3.6 Mha/8.8 Macres affected by mountain pine beetle
Why is this issue important?1. Infestations are widespread throughout western US
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Photo by C. Schnepf, forestryimages.org
Dead tree, needles on Needles off Snag fall/understory growth
Physical and biogeochemical characteristics compared with undamaged forest
1. Reduced GPP2. Reduced ET
1. Reduced LAI2. Reduced
Interception
1. Increased Rh
2. Initial recovery
Year following attack After 3-5 years After several decades
Photo by Arjan Meddens Photo by Arjan Meddens
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Simulated Soil N Dynamics Play a Key Role in C Fluxes and Recovery
5 yr
10 yr 25 yr
Point simulation in Idaho: 95% mortality over 3 years
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Future Research
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“Daily Forecasts of Wildland Fire Impacts on Air Quality in the Pacific Northwest: Enhancing the AIRPACT Decision Support System ”
Team: S. Edburg, B. Lamb, J. Vaughan, A. Kochanski, M.A. Jenkins, J. Mandel, N. Larkin, T. Strand, and R. Mell
Pending, submitted in December 2011 to NASA ROSES: Wildland
Fires
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Project Overview• Our long-term goal is to continue the development of AIRPACT
and evaluation tools to support decision making activities
• The objective of this proposal is to improve the representation of wildland fires within AIRPACT
• Our specific aim is to implement the WRF-Fire model within AIRPACT and evaluate simulations with satellite products
• We expect this will improve the plume rise and emission estimates and our evaluation techniques
• In our opinion, this will improve daily predictions of wildland fire impacts on air quality across the pacific northwest
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EOS inputs:
MOPITT (CO)
MODIS / GOES
CMAQ-Influence of fire on the Air Quality forecast (e.g. PM2.5, O3, NO2, CO, NMHC)
SMARTFIRE-Fire location-Fire area
BlueSky Modeling Framework-Speciated emissions-Time rate of emissions-Plume injection height of emissions
S.M.O.K.E -Emissions preprocessor
WRF-Fire
-Time rate of emissions-Plume Injection Heights
-Influence of meteorology on fire spread and intensity
Proposed Additions
EOS Evaluation
-OMI NO2 & O3
-MISR/CALPISO aerosol
AIRPACT
WRF-Meteorological Input-72 hour forecast
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Example of WRF-Fire
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Example of WRF-Fire