Stephen Bradforth

In the news…In the news…

Marketplace.orgFrom International Energy Agency (IEA) report this week

FROM BBC NEWS:

The IEA also expects that the US will overtake Russia as the world's biggest gas producer by 2015, again thanks to fracking, which can also be used to extract natural gas.

It warns that the big growth in US oil and gas production could have significant geopolitical implications, as it may make the US less concerned about the Middle East.

COMMENT: When petroleum runs out- which it will, sooner or later, the countries that pumped their resources dry too early will be at the mercy of those who prudently saved theirs. If we are going to deplete our resources this early in the "draw-down", we should work hard in the ~10 years it buys us to move as strongly as possible to other energy alternatives. Otherwise, the Saudis and others will be chuckling soon at our short-term thinking. One other thing to consider- oil is the source of many organic compounds that are used to make just about everything we rely on today- even if we "solve" the energy conundrum, we may then simply be reliant on oil-producers for other major portions of our economy. Let's hold onto ours as long as possible and let others pump theirs dry.

Western Europe, Japan

MacKay’s concludes in chapter 30 stating:MacKay’s concludes in chapter 30 stating:

“Europe can’t live on its own renewables” (even if they build them)MAXIMUM: ~ 80 kWh/d even after building massive solar farms. For Europe, need 125 kWh/d.

Conclusion: Europe needs more nuclear, or to live off other countries’ renewables.Conclusion: Europe needs more nuclear, or to live off other countries’ renewables.

“North American non-solar renewables aren’t enough for North America to live on.”

But with “massive expansion of solar power, there is enough.”

Conclusion: Either solar from North America’s own deserts or more nuclear, or both, Conclusion: Either solar from North America’s own deserts or more nuclear, or both, will allow energy survival without fossil fuelswill allow energy survival without fossil fuels

Basically same conclusion for the world – solar or nuclear, or both.Basically same conclusion for the world – solar or nuclear, or both.

Price tagPrice tag: •a 2008-style bank bailout or •one-year’s arms expenditure or •half the Iraq war

(MacKay, p 218)

*Total changes in energy policy …but different approaches by different countries

*Germany will close existing plants by 2022 (losing 10% of energy supply)

*Switzerland has banned all new plants letting current generation expire in 2030

*UK will continue in its expansion of nuclear plant fleet

*France already has 77% of its energy from nuclear with no changes planned

*Poland and China are building more plants

Silicon photovoltaic companies in 2011 in the US are starting to close, outcompeted by Chinese government-subsidized companies like Suntech

Germany, also one of the countries out in front, is struggling with diminishing government subsidies and Asian competition

Oct 2012 US Commerce Department ruling: 24-36 % tariffs on solar panels from China (action led by German and US manufacturers)

But US still leads in newer solar technologiesBut US still leads in newer solar technologies

Commercial CdTe thin-film PV cell (17.3%) and PV module (14.4%) efficiency

First Solar•Mesa, AZ company. •5 GW of First Solar panels installed worldwide

6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each

Buying energy from other countries:Buying energy from other countries:

Europe has high population density and too low renewable power densityBut many countries have low density, large areas and high power densities

On what terms would these countries be willing to cover 100’s of miles of their land with Concentrating solar thermal or solar PV panels?Cost of transmission and security?

FossilFuel

s

Energy efficiency and then electrical powered heat pumps (for heat and a/c use pump heat to from ground) can reduce use here by up to 75%

Electrification (cars, rail) can shrink transportation energy consumption by 80%

Rail

Space Heating(25%)

Refrigeration(7%)

Appliances(14%)

Water Heating(11%)

Lighting

(20%)

Space Cooling(12%)

Ventilation(3%)

Other(4%)

Unallocated(7%)

• 80% of residential lighting is incandescent• Government Target:

widespread deployment of lighting with 50% efficiency (electricity to light)

IncandescentFluorescen

tLEDs OLEDs*

Efficacy 17 lm/W 100 lm/W80-90 lm/W – White65 lm/W – warm white

100 lm/WLab demos

CRI 100 80-8580 – white90 – warm white

Up to 95

FormFactor Heat generating

Long orcompact gas filled glass tube

Point source high intensity lamp

Large area thindiffuse source.Flexible, transparent

Safetyconcerns Very hot

Contains mercury

Very hot in operation None to date

Lifetime(1000 hrs) 1 20 50 > 20

Comparison of Lighting TechnologiesComparison of Lighting Technologies

Courtesy Phillips

UDC – Universal Display Corporation

ROADMAP Targeted % increase/decrease

- IQE 20-30%

-Voltage 15-30%

-Outcoupling 50%

=150 lm/W

ROADMAP Targeted % increase/decrease

- IQE 20-30%

-Voltage 15-30%

-Outcoupling 50%

=150 lm/W

DOE TARGET

UDC Record 102 lm/W

10x efficiency of incandescents! Saves 18% of national electricity usage

Anyone else got an idea!