statistical downscaling using localized constructed analogs (loca) david pierce and dan cayan...
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Statistical downscaling using Localized
Constructed Analogs (LOCA)
David Pierce and Dan CayanScripps Institution of Oceanography
Bridget Thrasher, Edwin Maurer, John Abatzoglou, Katherine Hegewisch
Development sponsored by
The California Energy Commission
Department of Interior/US Geological Survey via the Southwest Climate Science Center
NOAA RISA Program through the California Nevada Applications Program
Production runs sponsored by
U.S. Army Core of Engineers/USBR
NASA via computing resources
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Downscaling system
Quantile Mapping (QM)
Constructed Analogs (CA; Hidalgo et al. 2008)
Bias Correction and Constructed Analogs (BCCA; Maurer et al. 2010)
Multivariate Adapted Constructed analogs (MACA; Abatzoglou & Brown 2012)
Bias Correction with Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD; Wood et al. 2004)
Global Regridding Bias SpatialModels Correction Downscaling
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Issues with bias correction
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• Tmax
• Difference between original model-predicted change and change after bias correction
• 2070-2100 minus 1976-2005
• Ensemble averaged across 21 GCMs
deg-C
1. QM does not preserve model-predicted changes(Maurer and Pierce, HESS, 2014)
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EDCDFm reference:Li, H., J. Sheffield, and E. F. Wood, 2010: Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 115 (D10101), doi:10.1029/2009JD012882.
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What about precipitation?
• Evaluate temperature changes as a difference (degrees C)• Evaluate precipitation changes as a ratio (percent)
– Positive definite– Wide dynamic range– Rain shadow regions
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• Precipitation
• Difference between original model-predicted change and change after bias correction in percentage points
• 2070-2100 minus 1976-2005
• Ensemble averaged across 21 GCMs
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“PresRat” scheme
• Like EDCDFm (Li et al. 2010) except:
1. Preserves the ratio of model-predicted changes (not the difference)
2. Zero-precipitation threshold (preserve observed number of dry days in historical period)
3. Final correction factor to preserve mean change
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“PresRat” scheme
• Like EDCDFm (Li et al. 2010) except:
1. Preserves the ratio of model-predicted changes (not the difference)
2. Zero-precipitation threshold (preserve observed number of dry days in historical period)
3. Final correction factor to preserve mean change
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• Correction factors necessary to preserve model-predicted changes (2070-2099 vs. 1976-2005) in mean precipitation
• Averaged across 21 GCMs
Correction factor
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• Precipitation
• Difference between original model-predicted change and change after bias correction in percentage points
• 2070-2100 minus 1976-2005
• Ensemble averaged across 21 GCMs
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If log-RMSE is f, then models are off by factor of (1 + f), on average
2. Model Errors can be a Function of Frequency
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Log-RMSE metrics
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How much does frequency-dependent bias correction change values?
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3. Standard QM not multivariate
• Temperature on precipitating days affects snow cover (Abatzoglou et al.)• Bias correct temperature conditional on precipitation > 0 or not
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Issues with spatial downscaling
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Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2008
Slide from Mike Dettinger, USGS (tenaya.ucsd.edu)
Spatial Downscaling with constructed analogs
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Slide from Mike Dettinger, USGS (tenaya.ucsd.edu)
Spatial Downscaling with constructed analogs
Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2008
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Slide from Mike Dettinger, USGS (tenaya.ucsd.edu)
Spatial Downscaling with constructed analogs
Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2008
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Slide from Mike Dettinger, USGS (tenaya.ucsd.edu)
Spatial Downscaling with constructed analogs
Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., and Cayan, D.R., 2008
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Issues with current downscaling (BCCA)
• “BCCA” = “Bias correction with Constructed Analogs”• Averaging step reduces temporal variance (i.e., mute extremes)
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2. Frequency of occurrence -> percent of amount
• Take an extreme example for illustration:
Slide 22
60% of the time
40% of the time
Contributes to reduction in extremes
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3. Drizzle problem from downscaling
Slide 23
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New downscaling (LOCA) (Step 1 of 2)• BCCA uses 30 best matching analog
days over entire domain
• LOCA starts with 30 best matching analog days over the region around the point
• Region: everywhere correlation with point being downscaled is > 0 (in obs)
• Regions are calculated by season (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) and variable (pr, tasmax, tasmin, etc.)
• Gives a natural domain independence to LOCA (extending domain past region does not affect results at the point)
Example shown for precipitation
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New downscaling (LOCA) (Step 2 of 2)• Once 30 regional analog days are
selected:
• Find best one (of the 30) matching days in a small localized region (~1 degree) around each point
• This two step process means each point:– Is consistent with what’s
happening regionally– Is the best match locally
• Points whose selected analog day is different from a neighbor’s (“edge points”) use a weighted average of the relevant analog days
• ~30% of points are edge points• Greatly reduced averaging means:
– Better extremes– Better spatial coherence– Far less “drizzle” problem
Example for precip, 1 Jan 1940
(P=0)
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4. Run out of analogs for extreme days?
1950-99……………………………………………………………………………….2070-99
Existing methods:
1950-99……2000-2009….…2010-2039…..2040-2069……….2070-99
Anomaly w.r.t. 30-year climatology
Use LOCA to downscale changes in climatology
LOCA:
Anomaly w.r.t. historical period (Tmin, Tmax)
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Project in association with Keith Dixon, GFDL
5. Averaging increases spatial coherence precip (red = more coherent)
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Evaluation:
Seasonal mean of daily precipitation (mm/day) in CCSM4
Error in %
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Evaluation:
Seasonal mean of daily Tmax (degC) in CCSM4
Error in degC
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Evaluation:
Standard deviation of daily precip (mm/day), averaged by seasonCCSM4
Error in %
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Evaluation:
Standard deviation of daily Tmax (degC), averaged by seasonCCSM4
Error in degC
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Goal: Realistic daily extremes (Precip)W
inter, m
m/day
Summ
er, m
m/day
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Goal: Realistic daily extremes (Temp)W
inter, CSum
mer, C
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Goal: Preserve model-predicted changes(Precipitation, CCSM4, rcp 8.5, 2070-2100 minus 1950-1999)
Winter, %
Summ
er, %
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Goal: Preserve model-predicted changes(Tmax, CCSM4, rcp 8.5, 2070-2100 minus 1950-1999)
Winter, C
Summ
er, C
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Example VIC output
(water yr avgs)
Slide 36
Available variables:
EvapotranspirationSnowpackHumidityTotal runoffSoil moisture
Black = with obs forcingGreen = 10 models
Red = model average
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Summary of Production Runs
• 32 CMIP5 models• Historical: 1950-2005. RCP 4.5 and
RCP 8.5: 2006-2100 (2099 some models)
• Climatological period: 1950-99• Interpolated model calendars to
standard calendar w/leap days• North America 24.5 N to 52.8 N at
1/16th degree resolution• Daily Tmin, Tmax, Precip (specific
humidity? 23 models).
ACCESS1-0ACCESS1-3CCSM4CESM1-BGCCESM1-CAM5CMCC-CMCMCC-CMSCNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3-6-0CanESM2EC-EARTHFGOALS-g2GFDL-CM3GFDL-ESM2GGFDL-ESM2MGISS-E2-HGISS-E2-R
HadGEM2-AOHadGEM2-CCHadGEM2-ESIPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC-ESMMIROC-ESM-CHEMMIROC5MPI-ESM-LRMPI-ESM-MRMRI-CGCM3NorESM1-Mbcc-csm1-1bcc-csm1-1-minmcm4
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Summary
• Many bias correction & downscaling schemes…• Quantile mapping, BCCA:
– Muted extremes– Different biases at different frequencies– Too much spatial coherence– Drizzle problems– Wrong temperature of precipitation
• New bias correction and LOCA downscaling– Extremes preserved pretty well, along with seasonal means and std deviations– Reasonable preservation of original model-predicted changes– Frequency dependent bias correction– Spatial coherence not degraded as much– Greatly reduces drizzle problem– Bias correct temperature conditional on precipitation
Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, and B. L. Thrasher, 2014: Statistical downscaling using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). Journal of Hydrometeorology, v. 15, page 2558-2585
Analysis plots: loca.ucsd.edu
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39
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