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Potential Impacts of ClimateChange on California: New Findings from the 2008 Impacts Assessment. Guido Franco Dan Cayan Public Interest Energy Research Program Scripps Institution of Oceanography - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Guido Franco Dan CayanPublic Interest Energy Research Program Scripps Institution of Oceanography California Energy Commission University of California, San Diego
U.S. Geological Survey California Energy Commission’s Climate Change Center
Climate Action TeamSacramento, California
March 11, 20091
OutlineProcess and participation in preparing 2008
Climate Change Impact Assessment (Scenarios Report)
Overall strategy
Climate and sea level rise scenarios
Illustrative preliminary results
Conclusions
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Scenarios Sub-Group
Sub-group served as a steering committee
Core Group was main interface with scientists
Scientists associated with several institutions, mostly from California have produced more than 35 scientific papers. (The 2006 Scenarios Study had ~20 papers,)
Scenario Subgroup of the CAT Team
CalEPA, Resource Agency, ARB, Caltrans, DWR, OPC, Coastal Commission, BCDC,
OEHHA, Dept. of Health, Cal Fire, CDFG, CDFA, CEC
Core GroupDan Cayan (Co-Chair, Scripps), Michael
Hanemann (UC Berkeley), Andrew Altevogt (CalEPA), Alan Sanstad (LBNL), Susanne
Moser (Consultant/PIER), Bart Croes (ARB), D. Orrill (Resources),
Guido Franco (C0-Chair – CEC)
Research TeamScripps/UC San Diego, UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara,
Stanford, UC Merced, Santa Clara University, USGS, UC Davis, RAND, Pacific Institute, JPL/UCLA, TNC, Oregon State, UC Santa Cruz, LLNL, USFS, LBNL,
OEHHA, DWR, ARB, CDF, CEC
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Draft Final PapersScope of work developed by the Core Group and
approved by the Scenarios Subgroup in summer 2007
More than 35 papers commissioned Formal peer-review established and conductedNearly all of the papers have passed peer-review
and are now available as Draft Final papers Public Science meeting to be held in April to
discuss findingsFinal papers will be ready before the release of
the final CAT report
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List of Draft Final Papers
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Titles Authors
Titles AuthorsLong-run socioeconomic and demographic scenarios for California
Alan H. Sanstad, Hans Johnson, Noah Goldstein, Guido Franco
Climate Change Scenarios and Sea Level Rise Estimates for the California 2008 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment
Dan Cayan, Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Hugo Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Ed Maurer, Peter Bromirski, Nicholas Graham, and Reinhard Flick
Anthropogenic Reduction of Santa Ana Winds Mimi Hughes, Alex Hall, and Jinwon Kim
Observed Changes in the Sierra Nevada Snowpack: Potential Causes and Concerns
Sarah Kapnick and Alex Hall
An Intercomparison and Evaluation of California Baseline Regional Climate Using Multiple Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling Techniques
N. Miller, D. Cayan, P. Duffy, H. Hidalgo J. Jin, H. Kanamaru, M. Kanamitsu, T. O’Brien, N. Schlegel, L. Sloan, M. Snyder, K. Yoshimura
A Projection of the Cold Season Hydroclimate in California in Mid-Twenty-First Century under the SRES-A1B Emission Scenario
J. Kim, R. Fovell, A. Hall, Q. Li, K. Liou, J. McWilliams, Y. Xue, X. Qu, and S. Kapnick, D. Waliser, A. Eldering, Y. Chao
Simulating the Sierra Nevada Snowpack: The Impact of Snow Albedo and Multi-Layer Snow Physics.
Waliser, D., J. Kim, Y. Xue, Y. Chao, A. Eldering, R. Fovell, A. Hall, Q. Li, K. Liou, J. McWilliams, S. Kapnick, R. Vasic, F. De Sale, and Y. Yu
Price Impact on the Demand for Water and Energy in California Residences
Larry Dale, Mithra Moezzi, Felipe Vasquez, Michael Hanemann
Impact of Climate Change on Residential Electricity Consumption: Evidence from Billing Data
Maximilian Auffhammer and Anin Aroonruengsawat
Climate change impacts on the operation of two high elevation hydropower systems in California
Sebastian Vicuna, John Dracup, Larry Dale
Water Management Adaptation with Climate Change J. Medellin, C. Connell, K. Madani, and J. Lund
Projections of Potential Flood Regime Changes in California
Dettinger, Knowles, Hidalgo, Das, Cayan, Tyree
Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Agricultural Water Management in California's Western San Joaquin Valley, and Potential Adaptation Strategies
Brian Joyce, Vishal Mehta, David Purkey, Larry Dale, Michael Hanemann, Michael Kiparsky, John Dracup
Using Future Climate Projections to Support Water Decision Making in California
Francis Chung and Jamie Anderson
California perennial crops in a changing climate D. Lobell and C. Field
Climate extremes in California agriculture D.B. Lobell, A. Torney, and C.B. Field
Effect of Climate Change on Field Crop Production in the Central Valley of California
Lee, J. and J. Six
Estimating the Economic Impacts of Agricultural Yield Related Changes for California
Richard Howitt, Josué Medellín-Azuara
Economic Impacts of Climate Change on California Agriculture
Christopher J. Costello, Olivier Deschênes, Charles D. Kolstad
Potential for Adaptation to Climate Change in an Agricultural Landscape in the Central Valley of California
L. E. Jackson, F. Santos-Martin, A. D. Hollander, W. R. Horwath, R. E. Howitt, J., B. Kramer, A. T. O’Geen, B. S. Orlove, J. W. Six, S. K. Sokolow, D. A. Sumner, T. P.Tomich, and S. M. WheelerClimate Change Impacts to Urban and Agricultural
Sectors in CaliforniaMichael Hanemann, Susan Stratton, and Nathaniel Bush (UC Berkeley) and Larry Dale (LBNL)
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Climate variability and California low level inversions Iacobellis, Norris, Kanamitsu, Tyree and Cayan
Impact of Climate Change on Photochemical Air Pollution in Southern California
D.E. Millstein and R.A. Harley
The Impact of Climate Change on California Timberlands
Lee Hannah, Chris Costello, Chris Guo, Lydia Ries, and Nathan Snider
Climate Change, Growth, and California WildfireA.L. Westerling, B. P. Bryant, H.K. Preisler, H G. Hidalgo, and T. Das
Projecting climate change impacts on forest growth and yield for California's Sierran mixed conifer forests
Battles, J.J., Robards, T., Stewart, W., and Das, A.
Potential Effects of Climate Change on Residential Widlfire Risk in California
B.P. Bryant and A.L. Westerling
Climate Change and Public Health in California Deborah Drechsler
Estimating the Mortality Effect of the July 2006 California Heat Wave
Bart D. Ostro, Lindsey A. Roth, Rochelle S. Green, and Rupa Basu
Estimating Climate Change Impacts from Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Air Masses
Scott Sheridan, Katharine Hayhoe, Laurence Kalkstein,
A Multi-County Analysis Identifying the Vulnerable Populations for Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperature in California
Rupa Basu and Bart Ostro
The Effect of Temperature on Hospital Admissions in Nine California Counties
Rochelle Green, Rupa Basu, Brian Malig, Rachel Broadwin, Janice Kim, Bart Ostro
Climate Change and Potential Hotspots of Coastal Erosion Along the Southern California Coast
Peter N. Adams, Douglas L. Inman
Potential Inundation due to Rising Sea Levels in the San Francisco Bay Region
Noah Knowles
The Impact of Sea-Level rise on the California CoastMatthew Heberger, Heather Cooley, Pablo Herrera, Peter H. Gleick
Estimating The Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Southern California Beaches
Pendleton, L., King, P., Mohn, C., Webster, D.G., and R. K. Vaughn, and Peter Adams
Environmental Health and Equity Impacts from Climate Change and Climate Change Policies in California: A Review of the Literature
Seth B. Shonkoff, Rachel Morello, Manuel Pastor, James Sadd
The Impact of Climate Change on California's Ecosystem Services
R. Shaw, D Bachelet, D. Cameron, M. Conte, D. Cochlin, B. Morris, J. MacKenzie, K. Klausmeyer, E. Haunreiter, C. Costello
Current and Future Impacts of Extreme Events in California
Mastrandrea, C.Tebaldi, C.P. Snyder, S.H. Schneider
Climate Change Related Impacts in the San Diego Region by 2050
Steven Messner, Sandra C Miranda, Karen Green, Charles Phillips, Joseph Dudley, Dan Cayan, Emily Young
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Sectoral StudiesAgricultureForest ResourcesElectricity demand and generationCoastal resourcesWater resourcesAir QualityPublic HealthEcological services
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Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios
Demographic and Urban Projections
Physical ImpactsEconomic Outcomes
Statewide AgriculturalProduction Model (SWAP)
Lobell and Field (Stanford)Howitt et al. (UC Davis)
Uncertainty
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Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios: What is new?
6 models—several more than in 2006 Assessment
Drying trends by mid- century
Updated sea level projections higher than reported in 2006 2006 Assessm
ent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Carb
on D
ioxi
de E
miss
ions
(Gt
of C
)
Years
Historical Emissions
A1
A2
B1
B2
A1FI
A1T
A2
B1
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Electricity Demand: Residential Sector
What is new?Better Data - Use of
detailed household level consumption data; Analysis and results at ZIP code level
Significantly higher estimated impacts--Statewide electricity demand would go up by about 7% in the next few decades due to climate change. By end of this century demand would increase by 20 % in the B1 scenario and by 50 percent in the A2 scenario. Results for the PCM model (low warming)
Simulated increase in per-household electricity consumption by zip code for the periods 2020–2039 (a)(c) and 2080–2099 (b)(d) in percent over simulations using climate data for the 1980–1999 period. Model NCAR PCM forced by IPCC SRES
B1 (a)(b) and A2 (c)(d).
Source: Aroonruengsawat and Auffhammer (2009)
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a) b)
c) d)
A2
2020 -2039 2080 - 2099
B1
A2
Coastal and San Francisco Bay Impacts due to Sea Level Rise What is new? (Not included in 2006 Assessment)
Detailed GIS analysis of the current population, infrastructure, and property at risk from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast.
No matter what policies are implemented in the future, sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of the California coast.
SF Bay Wastewater Treatment PlantsVulnerable to Sea Level Rise
GIS analysis of roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, wetlands, and power plants
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Ecosystem ServicesIn California, observations
of species migrations and range contractions driven by recent climate change are already documented
Across all broad taxonomic groups surveyed, projections suggest an increasing occurrence of negative biodiversity impacts
Under certain scenarios substantial reductions of aboveground carbon in terrestrial ecosystems occur
Sou
rce:
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, 2
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9
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B1 Emissions Scenario
Mammals
Wildfires What is new?More sophisticated
approach (e.g., consideration of the potential expansions of the urban/suburban footprints)
Simulations include more GCMs
Potential shifts in vegetation accounted for
Estimated risks significantly higher than reported in 2006
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Conclusions Negative impacts from future climate change
occur in nearly every sectorIn the next few decades, impacts are independent
of emission scenarios In-depth studies such as the ones included in this
assessment are needed to inform the development of robust adaptation strategies in California
Regional climate change and climate science is evolving rapidly. California is at the forefront but this work must continue
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Thanks!
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