statistical approach
DESCRIPTION
Statistical Approach. try to understand the R simulation needed what kind of distribution will I ask R to use ? Where will I get a reasonable starting point for the magnitude of that variability. Where will I get guesses for realistic variability so I’m not fixing the game. Well. Spring. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Statistical Approach
• try to understand the R simulation needed
• what kind of distribution will I ask R to use?
• Where will I get a reasonable starting point for the magnitude of that variability.
• Where will I get guesses for realistic variability so I’m not fixing the game.
BU
TD
B
DG
CS
A
CO
C
CB
E
F
CP
BVDC
WL
P
Well
Native PastureDrylandPasture w/ fence
PlannedFence-line
HayedAnually
Fileds
Spring
MUWT
O
H
I1
I2
Rented
DAM
Tree Rows
SS2
S1
Attributes:
Physical Features
Ownership
Contracts
Quantifiers/Scores
Uses:GrazeCattle ShareHayHay ShareFarmLease to FarmerShare CropLease to USDA • CSP• CRP
Interventions:
Drill Well
Perimenter Fence
Cross Fence
Renovate
Change Stock Rate
Uncertainty:
RainfallMarket Price
YieldHail
Fuel Prices
Disaster
Anticipating the End:
For Each Parcel:
Old AttributesPossible
InterventionsUseYield – CostDecision
Yield
Attributes:
Parcel Name AntelopeParcel Ref ABiodiversityType FarmSize 125.7Creek NSpring NSpring Tub NWell NPossible Water YPerimeter Fence YFenced for 60 Days YCRP Contract YCRP ScoreNeed To Rest YDistance from HQEconomic CostEconomic WorthBordering Parcels CORoad System NCorral Access NWinter Feeding Accss NWetland YSeasonal Use SP,S,FSoil TypeMean Spring Wheat YieldMean Winter Wheat Yield Mean Year Lentil YieldWet Year AUMMean Year AUMDry Year AUMHay Yields
Owned by Ridenour Ranch NOwned by Bill Lord YRented N
Land Unit Map Unit Symbol Acres Percent
A ZaE 1 1%A BcD 2.3 2%A WmB 19.6 16%A WzB 22.8 18%A WzC 80 64%
Total: 125.7 100%
B LcF 0.1 0%B LbF 0.3 0%B ZaE 0.5 0%B WzC 48.4 37%B WmB 80.3 62%
Total: 129.6 100%
BU WzB 0.1 0%BU WzC 13.2 39%BU ZaE 20.8 61%
Total: 34.1 100%
BU-CRP ZaE 1.2 3%BU-CRP WzC 43.9 97%
Total: 45.1 100%
BV ZaE 2.8 3%BV Tr 4.1 5%BV ZwE 9.3 12%BV WzC 12.4 15%BV TuB 20.6 25%BV LbF 31.6 39%
Total: 80.8 100%
NRCSARC-GISSoil
MT091-Sheridan Countymukey Range_AUM348835 BcD 0.33348836 BdC 0.33348837 BoA 0.52
Soil Values for Forage Production
Table C1. - Rangeland Productivity Sheridan County, Montana
Only the soils that support rangeland vegetation suitable for grazing are rated.
Map Symbol Total Dry-Weight Production and Soil Name
Favorable Normal Unfavorable
Year Year Year
Ecological Site Lb/Acre Lb/Acre Lb/Acre
BcD:
Blanchard Sands, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated 2,200 1,800 1,200 0.601092896 0.491803279 0.327868852
Plains, East
ChB:
Cherry Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 1,700 1,500 1,300 0.464480874 0.409836066 0.355191257
East 0 0 0 FaB: 0 0 0
Farnuf Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 1,800 1,500 1,000 0.491803279 0.409836066 0.273224044
East 0 0 0 FtB: 0 0 0
Farnuf Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 3,800 2,900 2,000 1.038251366 0.792349727 0.546448087
East 0 0 0 Turner Silty, 10 To 14 Inch Ppt Zone, Glaciated Plains, 3,800 2,900 2,000
1.038251366 0.792349727 0.546448087 East 0 0 0
USDA
One AUM = 915 pounds.
Given: Annual forage production = 900 pounds per acre.
AUM per acre = (900 pounds per acre) x (25 percent grazing efficiency) = (225 pounds available forage per acre) / (915
pounds per AUM) = 0.25 AUM per acre.
Range Science:1000 lb. Cow with calf consumes
- 26 lbs of dry forage per day-760 lbs of dry forage per month
1 Animal Unit Month (AUM) = 760 lbs. of dry forage
Calculating Rangeland Production
1.
2.
Soil Values for Spring and Winter WheatMean Year Only
Modeled Spring and Winter Wheat Yields Sheridan County,
Montana
Spring Wheat Winter Wheat
Map Symbol Soil Name Bushels/Acre Bushels/Acre
BcD Blanchard 18 21
ChB Cherry 46 52
FaB Farnuf 43 48
Yields
Multiply by 915 Multiply by 780Hay Yield:
Expenses:Property TaxesFuelMaterialsWages
R
Vector of soil types for each parcel
Forage Yield Equation Wheat Yield Equation
Hay Equation AUM EquationIncome- cost Equation
Stocking Rate
Income- cost EquationCompare to Current Use
Make Decision
Cumulative Parcel Data
Yield
Range Simulation:
Mean Year
Stocking Rate Decision
Cumulative Parcel Data