state of the markets - silicon valley bank

State of the MarketsInside Views on the Health and Productivity of the Global Innovation Economy

Third Quarter 2018

SPECIAL REPORT:China’s Tech Growth Strategy

State of the Markets: Q3’18 2

State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2018

4 Bull Run: Tech Outswings the Market

8 Exit Conditions: Dual-Tracks Open

13 Emerging Sectors: Tech in the Real World

17 Venture in China: Investment Playbook

21 Spotlight on Shenzhen: Entrepreneurial Success

24 Southeast Asia: Expanding Influence


State of the Markets: Third Quarter 2018Tech Titans Dominate

Recent headlines might be all about tariffs, potential trade wars and turmoil, but investors’ appetite for tech appears unabated. Tech titans continue to lead this bull market and monopolize top slots as the most valuable U.S. companies. Yet while the IPO window remains open for emerging companies and both strategic and financial buyers have ample cash on hand for deals, investors and operators would be wise to acknowledge the underlying risks. The venture economy is not immune to economic downturns, so global growth rates bear watching.

Of course investors’ love affair with tech is not a U.S. phenomenon. This quarter we travel to China, which has quickly established itself as a leading innovation economy with a proliferation of young unicorns. The “hardware capital” of Shenzhen offers a fascinating case study, evolving from sleepy fishing village, to low-value manufacturing, to global tech powerhouse in just a generation. China’s influence is spreading to Southeast Asia by exporting tech and establishing programs to partner with neighboring countries. The influence of Chinese tech is not a passing phase, but rather it’s just the beginning.

Bob BleeHead of Corporate FinanceSilicon Valley Bank


Bull Run: Tech Outswings the Market


U.S. Tech Giants Worth More Than Next 10 Companies

Source: S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.

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#1

#2

#3

#5

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$3.8T

$3.1T

Top 5 vs. Next 10: Highest Market Cap at 6/30/18

A decade of robust consumer and business spending has helped tech lock down the top five slots as the most valuable U.S. companies. Still, tech is susceptible to larger swings than the overall market.

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1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Cumulative Returns for S&P 500 Tech vs. S&P 500

#6

S&P 500 Market IndexS&P 500 Information Technology


Could Market Turmoil Spoil the Party for Venture?

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1 53 105 157 209

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1 53 105 157 209

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16$0B

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Dot-com Era: Q2’98–Q1’02 Financial Crisis: Q4’05–Q3’09 Current Bull Run: Q3’16–Q2’18S&P 500 Index Returns S&P 500 Index Returns S&P 500 Index Returns

U.S. Venture Investment U.S. Venture Investment U.S. Venture Investment

$0B

$5B

$10B

$15B

$20B

$25B

$30B

$35B

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Venture capital by its very nature is a riskier asset. The last two bouts of U.S. market turmoil had a marked effect on investment flows into emerging tech and life sciences companies.

Source: PwC/CB Insights MoneyTree, PitchBook/NVCA, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.

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0%

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25%

Jul. 2017 Oct. 2017 Jan. 2018 Apr. 2018


Coordinated Global Growth Falls Out of Sync

Notes: 1) OMSCI USA. 2) OMSCI EM. 3) OMSCI EAFE. 4) China 1 Year Benchmark Lending Rates, PBOC. 5) U.S. Fed Funds Rate. 6) UK Bank of England Official Bank Rate. 7) ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate.Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and SVB analysis.

Cumulative Equity Market Returns: Q3’17–Q2’18 Benchmark Rates for Major Economies: 2006–1H’18

Performance 2H’17 United States1 +12%Emerging Markets2 +17%Developed Markets3 +9%

Q2’18U.S. +6%EM -9%DM -4%

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7%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

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2015

2016

2017

2018

China4

U.K.6

E.U.7

U.S.5

The U.S. economy is powering global growth after stumbles in Europe and emerging markets in early 2018. To avoid overheating, the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates, and is now out of step with other major economies. Tech companies, at scale, rely on global growth to substantiate lofty valuations.

July 2017

Sept. Jan. 2018

April 2006 2010 2014 1H’18


Exit Conditions: Dual-Tracks Open

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Jul. 2015Oct. 2015Jan. 2016Apr. 2016Jul. 2016Oct. 2016Jan. 2017Apr. 2017Jul. 2017Oct. 2017Jan. 2018Apr. 2018


IPOs Look More Attractive in 2018

Notes: 1) More information on BVP Cloud Index at: https://www.bvp.com/strategy/cloud-computing/index. 2) Revenue run rate = Most Recent Quarter’s Revenue x 4. Valuations based on total enterprise value.Source: Bessemmer Venture Partners, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.

BVP Cloud Index1: Rev. Run Rate Multiple (Median)2U.S. Equity Volatility Index (^VIX): 2H’15–1H’18

20

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7/1/2015 10/1/2015 1/1/2016 4/1/2016 7/1/2016 10/1/2016 1/1/2017 4/1/2017 7/1/2017 10/1/2017 1/1/2018 4/1/2018

The backlog of companies looking to access liquidity and capital with an IPO found low valuations to start 2016 and high volatility to start 2018. However, heading into the summer of 2018 both indications appear ripe for public debuts. IPOs are likely to follow.

Low Volatility

July2015

Jan.2016

July Jan. 2017

July Jan. 2018

July2015

Jan.2016

July Jan. 2017

July Jan. 2018

$0.0B

$1.0B

$2.0B

$3.0B

$4.0B

$5.0B

$6.0B

$7.0B

$8.0B

MuleSoft AppDynamics iZettle AppNexus Adaptive Insights GitHub Mobike Glassdoor Ring Musical.ly PillPack


IPOs Provide Price Discovery for Acquisitions

Notable $1B+ Tech Acquisitions: 2017–1H’18

Notes: 1) AppDynamics was reportedly pricing IPO below last private round. 2) Mobike was acquired at a 10% discount to their last private round.Source: PitchBook, S&P Capital IQ, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and SVB analysis.

Privately HeldIn IPO RegistrationPublic

Mar. 2018 .Jan. 20171 May 2018 June 2018 June 2018 June 2018 .Apr. 20182 June 2018 Apr. 2018 Dec. 2017 June 2018

Target

Last Public Valuation

Valuation at Acquisition

IPO Valuation

Last Private Valuation

Acquirer

Deal Date

Legend

Strategics have been willing to pay up in 2018. Acquirers are so hungry for tech assets that several companies in IPO registration have been acquired for healthy premiums before hitting the market.

2H’13 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H'18


Continued M&A for Scaled Mid-Market Companies

U.S. Venture-Backed Tech Acquisitions $250M–999M: Q3’13–Q2’18 Most Active Acquirers1

Note: 1) For acquisitions with the same criteria as the chart. Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

Most Active Deals

Cisco 8 $3.1B

Oracle 6 $3.5B

Thoma Bravo 5 $2.4B

Vista Equity 4 $2.4B

Salesforce 4 $2.3B

GTCR 3 $1.7B

Intel 3 $1.1B

U.S. Tech Giants

Alphabet 2 $0.0B

Microsoft 2 $0.8B

Amazon 1 $0.5B

Facebook 1 $0.5B

Apple 0 $0.0B0

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40

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2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q2Q1Q4Q3Q

Capital

Beneath the megadeals, financial buyers continue to offer another exit path for companies at <$1B. Private equity deals accounted for more than one-third of 1H’18 transaction value in this range.

Strategic BuyersFinancial Buyers Deal Count

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12/31/2007


Ample Cash at the Ready for Tech M&A

Notes: 1) Net cash for strategic acquirers includes cash and ST & LT investments, net ST & LT debt. No consideration was given to domicile of holdings. 2) Based on constituents of the S&P 500 as of June 30, 2018. 3) Based on dry powder for private equity as of September 30, 2017, multiplied by SVB estimate of amount invested in technology deals.Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

S&P 5002: Cash and Cash Equivalents: 2008–1H’18Net Cash: Financial and Strategic Buyers1

$107B

$145B

$109B

$51B$44B

$1B$0B

$20B

$40B

$60B

$80B

$100B

$120B

$140B

Private Equity Apple Google Microsoft Facebook Amazon

U.S. PE TechDry Powder2

Capital remains plentiful for traditional acquirers: Private equity firms are nearing all-time highs for dry powder, and strategics are cash- and equity-rich. As tech moves to disrupt all industries, note that current S&P 500 constituents have doubled their cash over the last decade.

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018


Emerging Sectors:Tech in the Real World

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Shifting Retail Trends Attract Capital

Note: 1) Based on annualized 1H’18 total. Source: PitchBook, TechCrunch, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNBC, company websites and SVB analysis.

Acquisitions & Investments for E-commerceLogistics: Venture Capital Raised and Deal Count

Proj

ecte

d Fu

ll Ye

ar1

China-based logistics firmAcquired majority stake in

2017 at $20B valuation

Middle Eastern e-commerce site

Acq. in July 2017 for $580M

SE Asian e-commerce siteAcquired majority stake in

2016 at $2B valuation

Middle Eastern logistics firm

Acq. in Sept. 2017 by Souq

Invested $550M into JD.com in June 2018

Invested in Jet in 2015

Invested $215M into JD.comfor 15% stake in March 2014Invested in Flipkart in 2017

“The rival of my..rival is my friend”

Helping accelerateint’l expansion

Dominance in local and regional markets

Indian e-commerce siteAcquired by Walmart for

$20B in April 2018

U.S. e-commerce and logisticsAcquired by Walmart for

$3.3B in Aug. 2016

Adapting to sales moving online

Consumer expectations are shifting, and retail continues to migrate away from brick and mortar. As e-commerce giants expand their logistics capabilities to cover both domestic and international markets, startup investors are committing capital to the next generation.

0 25 50 75 100 125

NEA

Polaris Partners

GV

Canaan Partners

Venrock

Kleiner Perkins

Khosla

Founders Fund

Data Collective

Sequoia


Tech Venturing into Healthcare

Note: 1) Includes venture firms where less than one-third of deals over the past five years were in healthcare.Source: PitchBook, The Wall Street Journal, company websites and SVB analysis.

Notable Efforts from Tech GiantsMost Active Generalist Investors1 in U.S. Healthcare: 2H’13–1H’18Total Deals

Deal Value

Life sciences subsidiary utilizing data to improve

patient care and outcomes

Biotech R&D subsidiary in partnership with AbbVie

focused on longevity

Chin

a In

vts. U.S. Invts.

Announced partnership in Jan. 2018 to combat rising healthcare costs

Online pharmacy delivery startup acquired

for $1.0B in June 2018

Healthcare is a massive yet inefficient marketplace ripe for innovation and investment. But tackling healthcare challenges is no easy task. Data-rich use cases for AI/ML in diagnostics and genomics are drawing substantial interest.

$5.0B

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AI+: Vertical Applications of Artificial Intelligence

AI + Cybersecurity AI + Digital Health AI + Fintech

Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018

Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis.

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U.S. Venture Deals % of all Cybersecurity Deals

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U.S. Venture Deals % of all Digital Health Deals

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U.S. Venture Deals % of all Fintech Deals

$481M $330M $297M

Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018 Most Well-Funded U.S. Startups: June 2018

$500M $237M $55M $1,357M $718M $439M

The future is out of the lab and into our lives, improving everything from portfolio returns to human lifespans. The percentage of startups using AI has climbed in nearly every category.


Venture in China: Investment Playbook

15 10 5 0 5 10 15


A Younger Herd of Unicorns in China

Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis.

China has quickly established itself as a Top Two venture market. In China, the ratio of younger (<4 years) to older unicorns (>10 years) is 1-to-1. In the U.S., that ratio is 1-to-4. This speaks to how rapidly companies can reach an astronomical scale in this dynamic emerging market.

Distribution of Current Unicorns by Age as of June 2018: China vs. U.S.

U.S. Total:20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

China Total:

72 113+Age

0Count

Median: 9

Median: 6

$250

B+ .

$50–

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B $2

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–$10

B


The Long Reach of China’s BATJ

Note: 1) Valuations based on market cap (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com) or most recent private round as of June 30, 2018. Source: China Money Network, S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook, TechCrunch, company websites and SVB analysis.

BATJ and $5B+ China Unicorns

Jiedaibao

Pinduoduo

Unaffiliated

Valuation Band1

China’s internet giants are a dominant presence in the venture ecosystem. More than two-thirds of China’s current unicorns with $5B+ valuations have received investment from at least one of the BATJ. And now, Alibaba and Tencent may look to invest even earlier in companies’ life cycles.

Own/Acquired

Invested

Legend


IPOs: How China’s Companies Decide Where to List

Source: S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.

China Tech IPO Gross Proceeds by Exchange: Capital Raised in $100M+ IPOs

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H'18

$22B

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aba

JD.c

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FII F

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Xiao

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Guos

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Scaled companies in China face an international decision when it comes time to list and must consider access to capital, liquidity and regulatory constraints. Six of China’s last eight $1B+ tech IPOs chose exchanges in the U.S. and Hong Kong. Officials would like to see more list domestically.

U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China U.S. H.K. China

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H’18


Spotlight on Shenzhen: Entrepreneurial Success


Shenzhen: Economic Experiment Yields Results

Note: 1) Based on current fundraising efforts as of April 2018.Source: South China Morning Post, S&P Capital IQ, China Money Network, company websites and SVB analysis.

City Population, Milestones and Company Formations: 1970–Today

0.0M

2.0M

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12.0M

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Today

Shenzhen

New York City

Shenzhen’s Tech Giants

Designated China’s first Special Economic Zone.

Shenzhen Stock Exchange opens.

Launches int’l recruitment effort, the “Peacock Plan.”

Small fishing communitywith 2000-year history.

In the span of a generation, Shenzhen has climbed from a fishing village to a global tech powerhouse. Deliberate structural planning and talent acquisition efforts, coupled with world-class hardware manufacturing, have equipped a generation of market-oriented companies to compete globally.

Telecom equipment developer, manufacturer and distributor

Market Cap: Privately Held

2017 Total Revenue: $92.5B

Internet social and gaming platform; e.g. owns WeChat (1B+ MAU)

Market Cap (6/30/18): $473.5B


Consumer smartphone and connected hardware manufacturer

Market Cap (6/30/18): $54.0B1


Consumer aerial drone and camera developer and manufacturer

Market Cap (6/30/18): $15B1

2017 Total Revenue: Unknown


Market-Oriented Approach Spurs Innovation

Notes: 1) Based on list of 96 companies under the supervision of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). 2) PCT Applications are applications filed under the Patent Cooperation Treaty. 3) Data as of 2016. 4) Data as of 2017.Source: State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission website, World Intellectual Property Organization, The Economist analysis of WIPO and SIPO data, company websites and SVB analysis.

China’s Centrally Controlled State-Owned Enterprises by City1

PCT Applications2 by City: Percentage of China Total3

PCT Applications2 by Company:Top 5 & Shenzhen Cos. in Top 1004

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

BJ SH SZ O0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

BJ SH SZ Other

Company

1 Huawei 4,204.

2 ZTE 2,965.

3 Intel 2,637.

4 Mitsubishi 2,521.

5 Qualcomm 2,163.

18 Shenzhen CSOT 972.

32 Tencent 560.

34 Yulong 517.

49 Xiaomi 354.

85 SZ DJI Technology 238.

Rank PCT Apps.

ShanghaiBeijing Shenzhen Other ShanghaiBeijing Shenzhen Other

Shenzhen’s short history means little presence from incumbent state-owned enterprises. Instead, special economic incentives attracted entrepreneurs, and free market forces drove them to be innovators. Shenzhen-based companies now hold the top two spots in global patent applications.


Southeast Asia: Expanding Influence


China Sees Itself in Southeast Asia

Note: 1) Includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.Source: The World Bank, eMarketer, China Internet Network Information Center, Hootsuite and SVB analysis.

Gross Domestic Product: 2000–2017

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2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Internet Users (IU) and YoY Growth Rates: Jan. 2018

China

SE Asia1

Population: 1,385M

Internet Users: 772M

Pop: 326MIU: 280M

Pop: 574M

IU: 350M

6%

<2%

12%

2017

4.7x4.7x

U.S.

Today, China is looking to Southeast Asia as their engine of economic growth. With double-digit growth for a user base that’s already larger than the U.S., China’s tech is finding opportunities to go international.

ChinaU.S.

Southeast Asia1

China Investor:HQ: SingaporeLogistics Real Estate ServicesInvestment: $306M in May 2018

Traveloka

Grab


Finding Familiar Investments in Southeast Asia

Note: 1) Potential expansion efforts for Lazada operations under the control of Alibaba.Source: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook, Reuters, Forbes, TechCrunch and SVB analysis.

Notable SE Asian Companies with Significant Investment from China Companies and Venture Firms

Sea Lazada

Tokopedia The Redwood Group Bigo

GO-Jek

Headquarters: SingaporeValuation: $5.0BPublicly Traded on NYSEChina-Based Investors:

Business Line Expansion:

Headquarters: SingaporeValuation: $10.0BSeries H in June 2018China-Based Investors:

Headquarters: JakartaValuation: $5.0BSeries E in Feb. 2018China-Based Investors:

Headquarters: SingaporeValuation: $2.0BAcquisition in April 2016China-Based Acquirer:

E-commerceGaming Payments


PaymentsRideHailing Grocery DeliveryMotorcycle

Hailing Payments


E-commerce Logistics? Payments?

Business Line Expansion1:

China Investors:HQ: JakartaTravel Search EngineValuation: $1.0B in July 2017

China Investor:HQ: JakartaE-commerce MarketplaceInvestment: $1.1B in Aug. 2017

China Investor:HQ: Singapore Online Video BroadcastingInvestment: $272M in June 2018

The market opportunities in Southeast Asia bear a strong resemblance to those in China a decade ago. This reflects the influence of strategic capital from China’s corporate giants and prominent investors. Often, the focus is expanding services to an upgrading consumer class.


Hemisphere of Influence

Belt and Road Initiative Infrastructure and Construction Investment by Country: Oct. 2013–June 2018

$8B

Kazakhstan

$24B

Russia

$6B

Kuwait

$9B

Saudi Arabia

$17B

Egypt

$9B

Ethiopia

$8B

Iraq $13B

Iran

$12B

Israel

$9B

India$18B

UAE $31B

Malaysia

$28B

Singapore

$25B

Indonesia

$7B

Thailand

$21B

Bangladesh$9B

Sri Lanka

$7B

Vietnam

$18B

Laos

$9B

S. Korea

$7B

Philippines

$40B

Pakistan

Total to Date:$420B

Legend: $10B+

$2B+

$7B

Cambodia

To ensure growth beyond opportunities in Southeast Asia, China is laying the groundwork to be a more prominent regional player. The Belt and Road Initiative will establish modern trade routes for goods from China to reach future generations of consumers near and far.

Source: China Global Investment Tracker, with data compiled by The American Enterprise Institute and The Heritage Foundation and SVB analysis.


Appendix


Report Authors

Steven Pipp, CFAVP, [email protected]

Bob BleeHead of Corporate [email protected]

Bob Blee heads Silicon Valley Bank’s Corporate Finance Group, which leads SVB's relationships with public and late stage private companies in the Innovation sector throughout North America, providing a full suite of lending and banking products, as well as guidance as a trusted partner helping our clients succeed and quickly scale.

Previously, Bob held a variety of roles in SVB’s California and Midwest geographies, including heading seed, early and mid-stage Infrastructure, Hardware, Consumer Internet and Fintech banking in the Bay Area and Southern California, as well as responsibility for SVB’s Mezzanine Lending and Loan Syndications practices.

Bob sits on the nonprofit board of the Network for Teaching Entrepreneurship (NFTE) and the Silicon Valley Advisory Council of the Commonwealth Club. He is also active with his alma mater, the University of Illinois.

Steven Pipp is a Vice President, Research, based in San Francisco, CA, responsible for capital markets research and data-driven analysis of the innovation economies that SVB serves globally.

Prior to his research role, Steven managed advisory and valuation engagements for venture-backed technology companies as part of SVB Analytics. Before joining SVB, Steven worked in Minneapolis, MN, as a consultant and entrepreneur in clean energy technology.

Steven earned a Master of Science in Finance from Boston College and a Bachelor of Science Business from the University of Minnesota. In addition, he holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.

This material including, without limitation, to the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable but which have not been independently verified by us, and for this reason, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation, offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is not authorized to undertake regulated activity in Canada and provides banking services from its regulated entities in the United States and the United Kingdom.© 2018 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

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