state of the birds climate change

8/6/2019 State of the Birds Climate Change

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Th S h B2010 R Cm Chg

United States of America


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L A C B B

2

In this 2010 State o the Birds report, we consider one o

the greatest environmental challenges o our time, climate

change. How will the impacts o climate change infuence

our bird populations and their habitats? Accelerated

climate change as a result o human activities is altering

the natural world as we know it, diminishing the quality

o our environment. This report calls attention to the

collective eorts needed to protect natures resources or

the benet o people and wildlie.

Contents

Foreword . 3

Summary . 4

Oceans. 6

Coasts. 8

Arctic.... 10

Islands. 12

Aridlands. 14

Wetlands. 16Grasslands. 18

Forests. 20

Bird's-Eye.View . 22

Stressors . 25

Waterowl. . 26

Gamebirds.. 27

Our.Approach. 28

North.Shits. 29

Addressing.

Uncertainty30

Acknowledgments.30


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SUMMARYBirds in Every Habitat Will beAected by Climate Change

In this report, we address climate change - focusing aention on what maybe in store for our nations birdlife, and the stories the birds themselves aretelling us about the changes that are happening even now.

Birds in every terrestrial and aquatic habitat will be aected by climatechange, although individual species in each habitat are likely to responddierently. We assessed the relative vulnerability of each United States birdspecies, based on ve biological aspects of sensitivity to climate change,as well as the exposure of each species' habitat to climate change in thenear future. We then categorized species as showing High Vulnerability (avulnerability score of four or more), Medium Vulnerability (a vulnerabilityscore of two or three), or Low Vulnerability (a vulnerability score of zero orone).

The results indicate that a majority of birds dependent on oceans, and birdson Hawaiian Islands, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Birds incoastal, arctic/alpine, and grassland habitats, as well as those on Caribbeanand other Pacic islands show intermediate levels of vulnerability. Mostbirds in aridlands, wetlands, and forests show lower overall vulnerability(see bar graph).

Across all habitats, species of conservation concern showed higher levels ofvulnerability to climate change than species not threatened by other factors.Vulnerability to climate change may hasten declines or prevent recovery.

At the same time, increased conservation concern may be warranted forgroups of birds, such as waterfowl and aerial insect-eating birds that areabundant now but that will be increasingly stressed as climate change im-pacts intensify.

Big Changes are in Store or Oceanic BirdsAll 67 oceanic bird species, including albatrosses, petrels, tropical terns,tropicbirds, frigatebirds, and puns are vulnerable because of their lowreproductive potential, use of islands for nesting, and reliance on rapidlychanging marine ecosystems. Seabirds such as Laysan Albatross and BoninPetrel that are restricted to nesting on low-lying islands are in danger of los-ing their breeding habitat as sea levels rise. To provide oceanic bird popula-tions with the best chances of adapting to climate change, we must reduceexisting threats from overshing, sheries bycatch, and pollution. We mustalso take proactive measures such as removing invasive species and pro-tecting existing or potential breeding colonies on high islands.

Sea Level Rise and Increased Storm

Activity Threaten Coastal BirdsRising sea levels are expected to inundate or fragment low-lying habitatssuch as salt marshes, sandy beaches, barrier islands, and mudats. Increas-ing frequency and severity of storms and changes in water temperatureswill impact quality and quantity of coastal habitats and alter marine foodwebs. Beach-nesting terns, highly specialized Saltmarsh Sparrows, andbirds dependent on marine waters are among the most vulnerable spe-cies. Migratory species such as shorebirds are also vulnerable to changes instopover and wintering habitats. Conserving coastal habitats will requireplanning and management to facilitate birds movement and resilience.

RelativeVulnerability ofU.S. Bird Species

by HabitatRed = highvulnerability

Yellow = mediumvulnerability

Green = lowvulnerability

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ocea

ns

Hawaiian

Coasts

Arct

c

Pacifi

cIsla

nd

Grassla

nds

Caribbe

an

Aridlan

ds

Wetla

nds

Forests

Percento

fSpecies

PelicanIslandUSFWS

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Accelerated Changes in Arctic/Alpine RegionsIncreased temperatures will drastically alter surface water and vegetationin the arctic, resulting in major changes in bird abundance and distribu-tion. White-tailed Ptarmigan and rosy-nches may disappear from moun-taintops as alpine tundra diminishes. Species that depend on grass-sedgetundra for breeding, such as the Black Turnstone, could lose their tundrabreeding habitat. Minimizing human-caused disturbance to low-lying

tundra and high-elevation alpine habitats may help the most vulnerablespecies adapt to changes.

Island Birds Face Rising Sea Levels and Reduced HabitatsBirds of Hawai'i and other Pacic islands already face multiple threatsand are increasingly challenged by mosquito-borne diseases and inva-sive species as climate change alters their native habitats. Protection and

restoration of natural systems is essentialto endangered species such as Puaiohi andAkiaplau in Hawai'i and the Puerto RicanParrot. Decreased rainfall will reduce habitatfor high-elevation forest birds and may resultin breeding failures among resident birds andreduced overwinter survival of migrants in theCaribbean.

Changes in Rainall and Temperaturewill Impact Wetland BirdsPredicted changes in temperature and rainfall will probably reduce vitalhabitats for waterfowl and other wetland birds. Additionally, these changeswill reduce the ability of wetlands to provide functions such as ood

control, sediment capture, and replenishing groundwater. Climate changecould reverse the positive eects of conservation actions that have increasedwaterfowl populations. In the Prairie Pothole region alone, increaseddrought conditions and loss of wetlands could lead to signicant reduc-tions in breeding waterfowl. Conservation programs must be expanded toinclude climate change impacts in biological planning, conservation design,and habitat protection initiatives.

Grassland and Aridland Birds FaceWarmer and Drier HabitatsAridlands and grasslands are predicted to become warmer and drier. Manyaridland birds are at increased risk because of drought and the potential forsummertime temperatures greater than they can tolerate. Important winter-ing areas for many grassland birds may become unsuitable due to increased

drought, invasive species, and invasion by woody shrubs. Prairie grouseand sage-grouse are vulnerable because of high site delity and their lackof tolerance for intensifying agricultural and energy development. Habitatcorridors will be vital to allow birds to move to more suitable areas. Habitatconservation and the protection of core areas in cooperation with farmersand ranchers will be required for grassland and aridland birds.

Subtle Changes or Forest BirdsForests will gradually change as precipitation changes, and as re, insectpests, and diseases alter forest communities. Forest types in eastern statesare predicted to shi northward, whereas western forest types will shi

to higher elevations. These changes will alter bird communities, althoughmost forest birds will probably be resilient because of their large distribu-tions and high reproductive rate. However, long-distance migrants, espe-cially aerial insect-eaters such as swis and nightjars, may face multiplechallenges such as the timing of food resource availability throughout theirmigratory range. Long-term management solutions should include pro-tecting large forest blocks with the highest carbon stores and connectinglandscapes by creating corridors.

L F J H B USGS

S D

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Noteworthy.All.67.ocean.bird.species.such.as.albatrosses,.petrels,.shearwaters,.boobies,.tropical.terns,.tropicbirds,.rigatebirds,.pufns.and.related.species.in.US.waters.show.a.medium.or.high.vulnerability.to.climate.change.

.Many.seabirds.possess.traits.that.make.them.sensitive.to.eects.o.climate.change,.such.as.low.reproductive.potential;.nesting.on.low-lying.islands.that.may.be.inundated.by.rising.sea.levels;.strong.fdelity.to.breeding.sites;.and.reliance.on.marine.ecosystems.that.are.sensitive.to.sudden.change.

.Many.eects.have.already.been.documented.including.increased.water.temperatures;.decreased.ice.cover;.altered.water.chemistry;.more.intense.storms;.and.changes.in.marine.diversity,.population.sizes,.movements,.and.lie.cycles

Observations and PredictionsIt is dicult to predict and measure climatechange in marine systems because natural large-scale changes occur naturally. These systems shimuch more rapidly and over larger areas than interrestrial systems where rooted plants and otherphysical conditions restrict the pace of change.

Warmer temperatures and changing wind paernsare predicted to aect the movement of oceanwaters which can signicantly alter ocean pro-

ductivity and food webs. If upwellings are slowedor fail to occur, fewer nutrients are available forphytoplankton, which form the foundation ofmarine food chains. Birds may also be aected bychanges in marine food webs as changing watertemperatures cause coral bleaching and as in-creasing atmospheric carbon dioxide acidies theocean, preventing marine species from creatingand maintaining their shells or skeletons.

Bird Species Vulnerability

Ocean birds are slow to adapt or recover fromadverse conditions and are vulnerable to climatechange because of their low reproductive potential(advanced age of rst breeding, productionof one egg each year or every other year, andthe high mortality rate for young birds). Manyseabirds forage over vast areas of ocean andare highly sensitive to the availability of marine

food. This sensitivity is especially pronouncedduring breeding, when providing food for chickscan place enormous physiological strain on theparents.

Potential ImpactsEven where scientists have determined thatchanging climate has inuenced seabird popula-tions, the exact mechanisms are not completelyknown. What is known is that climate inuencesreproduction, food resources, and population

dynamics. Some species will be favored, otherswill not.

Reproductive failure of seabirds resulting fromchanges in marine productivity is a documentednatural occurrence, such as when Pacic Coastseabird chicks starve during El Nio years. If cata-strophic events become more frequent, intense,

OCEANSBig changes in store or thenations ocean birds

To.provide.ocean.bird.populations.with.the.best.chances.

o.adapting.to.climate.change,.we.must.reduce.existing.threats

Magnifi

centFrigatebirdUSFWS

M B E VW

The 67 ocean birdsassessed havemedium to highvulnerability toclimate change; 43are at the highestlevel.

Oceans

% Low

% Medium

% High

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text here?

or longer as a result of climate change, popula-tion recovery is less likely. Warmer waters haveapparently led to decreases in the abundance ofsh in Prince William Sound, the Gulf of Alaska,and the California Current region, which is likelyto reduce the abundance of sh-eating birds.

Seabirds such as Common Murres that time theirbreeding based on temperature cues may fail toraise any young if their chicks hatch at the wrongtime, missing the window when food is abun-dant. Climate change may also cause prey to shiranges, leading to declines in bird populationsif the birds are unable to follow. For example,receding sea ice could make it dicult for arctic-breeding seabirds to reach productive foragingareas distant from their nesting sites.

Key StepsBecause ocean birds are highly vulnerable toclimate change, we must reduce existing stressors,including shing operations that result in bycatchof birds; pollution; introduced predators andplants that destroy nesting colonies; and overhar-

vest of sh by shingeets.

Some seabirds nownesting on low-lyingislands may be subjectto sea level rise. Thefuture of these birds isdependent on intenserestoration and siteprotection on higherislands to provide themwith suitable, predator-free breeding sites.

Because oceans are so important to birds, sh,and other resources, cooperative conservationeorts must be expanded to include marine andaquatic cooperatives. New marine protectedareas, national wildlife refuges, monuments, andsanctuaries will protect important resource areas.

Conservation in ActionTranslocation of very threatened ocean birds is apossibility. During the last few years, BermudaPetrel chicks have been moved from small, low,rocky islands to nearby Nonsuch Island wherethe higher elevation provides more security fromhurricanes and sea-level rise. The chicks survivedand produced the rst record of petrels breedingon Nonsuch Island in more than 400 years. In NewZealand, eight species of burrow-nesting petrelsand shearwaters have been translocated

successfully.

Regulations and voluntary measures to reducebycatch have greatly reduced the number ofseabirds accidently killed by long-line sheries inAlaska and Hawai'i. The designation of NationalWildlife Refuges and Marine National Monumentsconserves foraging areas and many remote islandswhere seabirds nest.

VernonBryd

L B- E VW

Horned Pun

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Noteworthy

.The.great.majority.o.coastal.species.

show.medium.or.high.vulnerability.to.climate.

change...

.The.quality.and.quantity.o.coastal.habitats.

is.likely.to.decrease.as.a.result.o.sea-level.

rise,.increased.storm.damage,.and.eects.on.

marine.productivity

.Losses.o.habitat.and.ood.sources.due.to.climate.change.are.the.largest.concerns.or.

coastal.birds

.Populations.may.decline.i.climate.change.

disconnects.the.timing.o.prey.availability.or.

abundance.with.coastal.birds..breeding.or.

migration.cycles.

dead zones. Warmer temperatures are alsocausing a northward shi in the distributionof marine organisms and facilitating theintroduction of invasive species to new areas.

Bird Species VulnerabilityMany of the coastal species that show medium orhigh vulnerability to climate change are coastalseabirds such as the arctic Ivory Gull, Aleutian Tern,and Kilitzs Murrelet. These species are vulnerable

to climate change because they rely on marine foodwebs and because they have low reproductivepotential. Beach-nesting Black and Americanoystercatchers and specialized Saltmarsh Sparrowsare among the most vulnerable coastal birds becausethey rely heavily on limited, low-elevation coastalhabitats.

Observations and PredictionsObserved and predicted impacts of rising sealevels vary depending on latitude, marinecurrents, and subsidence or elevation of landmass. In the United States, the Gulf of Mexicoand mid-Atlantic coasts have experiencedthe highest rates of relative sea level rise andrecent wetland loss. Continued sea-level riseis expected to inundate or fragment existinglow-lying habitats such as salt marshes, barrierislands, and mudats. Movement of coastal

wetlands may oset some losses; however, thispossibility is limited in areas with clis andsteeper topography, such as areas on the PacicCoast, or where shorelines are extensivelydeveloped, such as around San Francisco Bay.

On all coasts, ooding and erosion arepredicted to increase with more frequentand severe storms, as a result of rising oceantemperatures. Loss of sea ice buers aroundAlaska leaves its coasts more exposed tostorms. For example, the Bering Sea had a 39%

reduction in the extent of sea ice in the lastdecade that has led to loss of coastal habitat.

The trend toward heavier rainfall events islikely to increase the harmful eects of runothat introduces excess nutrients or salinitychanges in coastal areas. Warmer temperaturesand increased nutrient inputs may exacerbatephytoplankton blooms that can cause coastal

COASTSBirds in alreadybeleaguered habitats will behard hit by climate change

Coastal ecosystems includecoastlines, nearshore islands,nearshore waters, estuaries, andtidally-inuenced sections ofrivers and creeksproductivehabitats for abundant wildlife.

B O R L

The great majority of

coastal species (74 of 84assessed) have mediumor high vulnerability toclimate change.

Coasts

% Low

% Medium

% High

Bonaparte'sGullbyPhilinaEnglish

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S S K V. R

Potential ImpactsLike many other organisms, coastal bird speciesare expected to shi distributions northward,as warmer temperatures cause shis in foodresources and nesting opportunities.

If coastal habitats are lost, bird populations may

decline. Based on projections of marsh habitatloss in Chesapeake Bay, signicant declines ofmany marsh species are predicted. Birds such asthe rare Black Rail that relies solely on irregularlyooded high marsh could disappear from the Bayif breeding sites are submerged.

Seabirds breeding on coasts may be unsuccessfulin raising chicks if their hatch dates do not matchpaerns in the availability of food resources.Migrating shorebirds stopping at coastal feeding

grounds with reduced numbers of invertebratesmay be unable to gain the body weight necessaryto reach their breeding grounds and raise theiryoung.

Some large ecosystems may fundamentallychange. For example, Everglades National Park isvery vulnerable to sea-level rise because the parklies at or near sea level. Some projections show aloss of tidal ats and inland freshwater marshes,which would adversely impact some wading

birds and the federally endangered Cape Sable

Seaside Sparrow. However, these same projectionsshow an increase in the area of shallow basins,mangroves, and brackish marshes, which couldfavor some species.

Key Steps

Conserving coastal habitats already extensivelyaltered by development requires strategic plan-ning and management. Communities must takeclimate change into account as they develop zon-ing and building codes. In areas with rising sealevels, development plans should avoid restrictingthe inland migration of coastal beaches, marshes,mangroves or other wetlands. The placement ofhard barriers for construction or ood control onshorelines can squeeze wetlands out of existence.Some coastal states, including Massachuses andRhode Island, have restricted the construction of

seawalls and other barriers in some estuaries, andother states should as well.

Conservation in ActionA number of strategies can make existingcoastal habitats more resilient to sea-level rise.For example, at the Alligator River NationalWildlife Refuge in North Carolina, The NatureConservancy and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Serviceare removing ditches to restore the hydrologicregime and limit saltwater intrusion, assisting

vegetation movement by planting salt-tolerantspecies, and building oyster reefs to buershorelines from waves and storms. Along thePacic Coast, dikes and drainage ditches arebeing removed from Bandon Marsh, Nisqually,and several other National Wildlife Refuges torestore natural hydrology and expand tidal marshhabitat.

Specialized.Saltmarsh.Sparrows.are.among.the.most.vulnerable.coastal.birds..

because.they.are.extremely.sensitive.to.changes.in.water.levels.in.tidal.habitats

AmericanAvocetby

JohnBedell

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Noteworthy.72%.o.the.83.arctic.and.alpine.species.have.medium.or.high.vulnerability.to.climate.change.

.Temperature.increases.in.the.arctic.in.the.last.50.years.are.twice.that.o.the.rest.o.the.globe

.Increases.in.temperature.will.result.in.major.alterations.to.the.abundance.and.distribution.o.surace.water.in.the.arctic.and.major.vegetation.

changes.in.arctic.and.alpine.regions,.which.will.aect.bird.abundance.and.distribution

.Timing.o.long.distance.migrations.and.ood.availability.at.migration.stopovers.and.on.breeding.grounds.may.become.mismatched..

ARCTIC&ALPINEClimate change will beaccelerated and dramatic orbirds in arctic regions

Observations and PredictionsAverage annual temperatures will continue to riseover the next century. However, these increasesare not uniform across the arctic. There is a greatertemperature rise in Alaska (34F in summer) thanin the eastern Canadian arctic. As average annualtemperatures rise and the permafrost thaws, theactive soil layer becomes deeper. This allowsthe spread of trees and shrubs into tundra nowcomposed of sedges, grasses, and dwarf shrubs,and will aect bird abundance and distribution.

Although highly variable, precipitation isincreasing at a greater rate in the arctic thanelsewhere around the globe and it is occurringprimarily as rain. Precipitation will probablyincrease and warmer temperatures will resultin higher evaporation, which will reduce soilmoisture and reduce tundra wetlands in thewestern and central arctic. An increase in thenumber and extent of tundra res will also alterthese drier habitats.

Bird Species VulnerabilityVulnerability of arctic and alpine birds isprimarily due to their long-distance migrations,their obligatory use of these biomes, and theexposure of many arctic and alpine habitats toeects of climate change. Shorebirds, in particular,are dependent on arctic and alpine habitatsfor breeding. Habitat exposure was highest foralpine breeding species and those using low-elevation wet tundra. Simple interactions amongbird species and their food resources increased

sensitivity for some species. Because many arcticbirds are long-distance migrants, these speciescould also experience climate change-inducedalterations to the habitats they use at other timesof the year, which might increase their overallexposure and vulnerability.

Of 83 arctic and alpinespecies, 72% aremoderately or highlyvulnerable to climate

change.

Arctc/Alpine

% Low

% Medium

% High

ArcticNationalWildlifeRefugeUSFWS

L- J USFWS

10

Research.and.monitoring.programs.are.being.initiated.in.arctic..

regions.to.increase.our.understanding.o.how.birds.will.respond.to..

a.changing.climate.and.to.develop.eective.conservation.strategies


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Key StepsBecause of the exposure of low-elevation tundraand alpine zones to climate change eects,minimizing additional human-induced stresses onthese habitats is necessary. Increasing the networkof protected areas in the arctic should keep pacewith any further industrial development there.

Few monitoring systems are in place tounderstand the status of arctic and alpine birdsand how they are responding to climate changeduring their annual cycle. Monitoring systemsshould be deployed to understand how arctic andalpine birds are responding to changing climaticconditions and what steps could be taken to osetnegative eects. Reducing atmospheric carbonwill be necessary to maintain arctic and alpinebiodiversity.

Conservation in ActionArctic and alpine birds that rely on shrubsfor breeding habitat will increase in theseregions. Research and monitoring programsare being initiated in arctic regions to increaseour understanding of how birds will respondto a changing climate and to develop eectiveconservation strategies.

Arctic avifauna will likely experienceclimate change-induced alterations totheir habitats throughout their annual cycle.

S E USFWSbird name here W P D B

Potential ImpactsMelting permafrost may result in changes tosurface water and plant communities, changingthe distribution and abundance of waterfowl,shorebirds, and gulls. Melting permafrost mayalso release contaminants, such as mercury andorganic pollutants, into the aquatic environment,

exposing species such as the Spectacled Eider,Yellow-billed Loon, and Sabines Gull to newthreats. Advancement of trees and shrubswill have dramatic eects on arctic and alpinebreeding birds by narrowing or eliminatingtundra and alpine breeding habitats used byspecies such as Surird, Black Turnstone, andBrown-capped Rosy-nch. As boreal forest birdsexpand into the arctic, new avian communitieswill develop.

The earlier onset of spring might initially increaseproductivity of nesting shorebirds, althoughmigration schedules of long-distance migrantswould have to change so they raise their youngat the time when the most insects are available.Changes in weather and tundra habitats coulddecrease the abundance of lemmings and theirpredators, such as jaegers and Snowy Owls. Adecrease in lemmings could also cause predatorsto switch to eating other birds and their eggs.

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Noteworthy

.93%.o.Hawaiian.birds.and.62%.o.all.US.

Pacifc.island.birds.exhibit.medium.or.high.

vulnerability;.49%.o.Caribbean.birds.also.

show.medium.or.high.vulnerability.to.climate.

change

.Characteristics.o.islands.such.as.small.

size,.requency.o.natural.disasters,.and.high.

degrees.o.bird.endemism.contribute.to.island.

birds.high.exposure.to.impacts.o.climate.

change

.Increases.in.temperature.and.rising.sea.

levels.are.expected.to.reduce.natural.habitats.

on.islands.where.bird.species.have.restricted.

ranges.and.a.limited.ability.to.respond.to.

change

.Lower.rainall.in.the.Caribbean.will.cause.

changes.in.the.distribution.o.habitat.types,.

reduction.in.the.amount.o.moist.orests,.and.disruptions.in.ood.supplies

Bird Species VulnerabilityFor this report, island birds refers to upland (forexample, forest or scrub) and wetland birds occur-ring in Hawaii or on U.S. associated islands in thePacic and Caribbean. (See Oceans on page 5 for adiscussion of island-nesting seabirds).

Hawaiian birds are severely threatened by climatechange. Among the 42 native and endemic speciesof the Hawaiian Islands, only one is not consid-ered of conservation concern. Multiple aributescontribute to their vulnerability to climate change.Aributes that are most important include singleisland endemism, reduced dispersal ability, andexposure to climate change of the habitats onwhich these birds depend, particularly high-eleva-tion mountain forests.

Akekee

Observations and Predictions

Increases in temperature and rising sea levels areexpected to reduce the extent of natural habitatson islands where many bird species have re-stricted ranges and a limited ability to respond tochange. Species that depend on mountain forests,coastal wetlands, and low-lying islands are ex-pected to be most severely aected by this directhabitat loss.

Over the last cen-tury, average annualtemperatures in theCaribbean haveincreased by morethan 1F and duringthis century they areexpected to rise by anadditional 4F. In theU.S. Pacic islands,temperatures have risen by 0.5F during the pastcentury and are expected to rise by an additional4F by 2090. The Caribbean has been drying inrecent decades and this trend is expected to con-

tinue with a reduction in summer rainfall.

Tropical cyclones are expected to increase inintensity. Sea-level rise is expected to reducethe area of low-lying islands and eliminate ordegrade inshore habitats, including mangrovesand other coastal wetlands. In addition, sea-levelrise will cause saltwater intrusion into freshwaterunderlying islands, causing salinization of soiland freshwater wetlands, especially on low-lyingislands.

IslandsRising sea levelsand temperatures

threaten birds

EricVanderWerf

62% of all U.S.Pacic Island birds

show medium or highvulnerability.

93% of Hawaiian birdsexhibit medium or highvulnerability to climatechange.

49 % of U.S.Caribbean island birdsassessed have mediumor high vulnerability toclimate change.

Hawaiian% Low

% Medium

% High

Pacific Islands

% Low

% Medium

% High

Caribbean

% Low

% Medium

% High

H N A R M G W

LaysanDuckbyRoyLowe

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Potential ImpactsIn Hawaii , species restricted largely to highelevation forest, such as Puaiohi and 'Akiaplàu,will be highly susceptible to increases in tempera-ture. Elsewhere, mountain species such as Eln-woods Warbler on Puerto Rico and the Rota Bri-dled White-eye in the Northern Mariana Islands

will face similar threats. Sea-level rise will alsoreduce habitat for species such as Laysan Duckand Laysan Finch in Hawaii and Greater Fla-mingo in the Caribbean, and may threaten coastalforests important to the Micronesian Megapode inNorthern Mariana Islands.

There is a strongrelationship betweenprecipitation andinsect abundance. With

climate change, rainfallis expected to declinein the Greater Antilles,potentially leading to apersistent paern of lowinsect abundance and a

reduction in bird breeding success, which couldresult in signicant long-term population declines,especially among insectivorous species of concernsuch as Puerto Rican Vireo. In addition, reducedrainfall may reduce the survivorship of overwin-tering Nearctic-Neotropical migrants.

Cyclones disrupt the food supplies of some birdspecies, especially those that depend on fruit andnectar, causing post-storm population decreasesamong species with limited ability to disperselong distances in search of food. The intensica-tion of subtropical and tropical cyclones expectedwith rising temperatures and shiing oceancurrents will exacerbate the impacts of invasiveplants by causing large-scale habitat disturbance,creating opportunities for invasive species to rap-idly expand their ranges.

Àkiaplàu

On the main Hawaiian Islands, avian malariaand pox spread by introduced mosquitoes pose asignicant threat to native Hawaiian birds, whichhave lile or no natural resistance to these dis-eases. At temperatures below 55F, which occurtoday, typically around 5,000 feet above sea leveland higher, the malaria parasite will not com-

pletely develop in birds. An increase in tempera-ture of slightly less than 4F, which is predictedby some models, would raise the 55F thresholdby nearly 1,000 feet, greatly reducing the areas inwhich there is a low risk of disease transmission.For example, the Hanawi Natural Area Reserveon Maui could lose 57% of its remaining low-riskarea, increasing the risk of malaria to endangeredMaui Parrotbill and kohekohe.

All forested areas on Kauai and Oahu are warmenough for some level of malaria transmission.

However, warming on Kauai would result in an85% decrease in the area where transmission iscurrently highly seasonal and limited, contribut-ing to further declines among imperiled speciessuch as Akekee and Akikiki.

Key StepsOn all U.S. islands, immediate protectionand restoration of natural systems is criticalto counteract the negative eects of climatechange. Protected areas need to be large andnumerous to ensure that each important habitattype is protected across islands. Protection andrestoration of high elevation habitats is essential.

Programs to control invasive plants and animalsmust be supported and implemented. In Hawaii,until more sophisticated methods are developed todirectly control mosquitoes and the diseases theytransmit, fencing and removal of ungulates arethe most eective means of maintaining habitatquality and reducing the amount of mosquitobreeding habitat.

It is important to focus species recovery eortsnow on the species most in danger of becomingextinct. Translocations to create new speciespopulations in multiple locations will be animportant strategy. In some cases, it will benecessary to establish captive populations ofspecies that might become extinct.

Conservation in ActionIn Hawaii, watershed partnerships have beeneective at pooling resources to undertake morerestoration eorts. Strides have also been madein protecting and restoring remaining naturalforest. Partnerships including the HawaiiDepartment of Lands and Natural Resources, U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service,conservation organizations, and native Hawaiiansare working to fence key areas and remove

nonnative species. Additionally, predator removalhas successfully provided safe places for birds tonest.

A J J

JackJefrey

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Noteworthy..More.than.40%.o.airidland.bird.species.show.medium.or.high.vulnerability.to.climate.changes...

.Aridlands,.already.drier.and.more.variable.than.other.habitat.types,.are.predicted.to.get.even.drier,.warmer,.and.more.variable

.Most.aridlands.will.be.altered.by.increased.invasion.o.trees,.shrubs,.and.other.woody.plant.species,.which.will.decrease.their.

quality.as.habitat.or.bird.species.that.preer.aridlands.dominated.by.grasses.and.other.desert.vegetation.

.Aridlands.ecosystems.are.highly.susceptible.

to.invasion.by.nonnative.species.Facilitated.

by.climate.change,.invasion.by.nonnative.

species.could.alter.the.type.and.quantity.o.

ood.or.birds

Observations and PredictionsAridlands of the United States, already subject tosome of the highest extremes of climate variabilityin the country, are at great risk from climatechange. The major predicted eects of climatechange on all types of aridlands suggest that theywill become warmer and drier. Associated withthis will be increasingly variable precipitation,particularly in areas such as deserts, wheresummer and winter precipitation paerns helpdetermine plant and animal distribution.

Linked to these climatic changes, aridlands willbe highly susceptible to changes in plant speciescomposition, particularly increasing tree cover inareas now dominated by shrubs (such as the vastexpanses of sagebrush in the Colorado Plateau)and increasing density and surface area of shrubsin regions now dominated by grasses and otherdesert plants.

Invasion by nonnative species is expected to beexacerbated by changes in climate, which could

promote devastating changes in re frequencyas well as alter the type and quantity of food forbirds.

Bird Species VulnerabilityCompared with other habitat types, relatively fewaridland bird species are vulnerable to climatechange, though vulnerable species are foundin all major aridlands types. Examples includeGreater and Gunnisons sage-grouse of sagebrushhabitats of the Colorado Plateau and Great Basin,

Costas Hummingbird and Gilded Flicker of theSonoran Desert, Bendires and Crissal thrasher of

the Chihuahuan Desert, Black-capped Vireo ofthe Edwards Plateau, and Wrentit of the coastalCalifornia chaparral. Aridland birds are primarilyvulnerable because of their exposure: theprobability that their habitats will undergo majorchanges due to climate change.

Fiy aridland species are considered vulnerabledue to habitat exposure. A signicant numberare obligate breeding species of aridlands,which contributes to their vulnerability.Fourteen aridland species show medium or high

vulnerability, but are not currently consideredof conservation concern. These should beconsidered at much higher risk in the futureand should be given special aention. Of these,the Lesser Nighthawk, Common Poorwill,Lucifer Hummingbird, and Phainopepla deservespecial aention. The nighthawk and poorwillhave increased vulnerability because of theirdependency on large ying insect prey and theirlow reproductive potential. Lucifer Hummingbirdand Phainopepla are dependent on seasonal

ower and fruit resources and are only found inaridlands, thus increasing their vulnerability.

Of 79 aridlands species,44% have medium orhigh vulnerability toclimate change.

Aridlands

% Low

%Medium

% High

ARIDLANDSAridland birds will besusceptible to warmerand drier habitats

14

phainopeplaJohnBedell

S D


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Potential ImpactsClimate change could decouple the availabilityof food resources such as owers and seeds fromthe time that they are needed by various aridlandsspecies. A great unknown for aridlands birdsis the extent to which extreme climatic events,especially heat waves and drought, will push

dierent species physiological tolerances forheat and dehydration to or above their limits,resulting in increased mortality. Some evidencealready exists that these events can stress small-bodied species such as hummingbirds and Verdinand there is evidence of reproductive failure andcatastrophic mortality from heat waves in theUnited States and elsewhere.

Birds associated withriparian systems inaridlands, such as

Phainopepla andLucys Warbler, willbe especially aecteddue to changes inwater availability andvegetation of thesesystems. Aridlands,

especially those in the Southwest, also provideimportant wintering habitat for numerousspecies from grasslands and other habitat types.If aridlands undergo the changes predicted, their

suitability for a large number of these winteringspecies will decline.

Most aridland birds are adapted to the dry andvariable climates in which they live, so it isexpected that many will adjust their behavior,distribution, or movement paerns in response toclimate change. It is expected that many aridlands

species and the habitats they use should be able toexpand to the north, east, and to higher elevations.Signicant northward range expansions havealready been observed for some aridlands speciessuch as Cactus Wren, Cave Swallow, and White-winged Dove. Examples of species that arecurrently rare or of restricted distribution in the

U.S., but are likely to expand, include BronzedCowbird, Crested Caracara, and NorthernBeardless-Tyrannulet.

Key StepsGiven the nature of aridlands and the predictedeects of climate change, we need to preserveadditional airidland habitats so birds can moveas change occurs, particularly to the north, east,and up in elevation; barriers that prohibit thismovement should be identied and removed or

minimized. Riparian areas will increase in theirimportance for aridland birds. They need to beprotected and restoration eorts implemented toincrease the quantity and quality of this generallyscarce habitat type.

Management tools such as prescribed burning canbe used to reduce shrubs and promote grassesin areas susceptible to woody plant invasion.Analyses of current and predicted climate changemust be conducted to identify areas within thesubtypes of aridlands that are less likely to show

temperature increases or higher variability; theseareas could serve as refuges for aridlands birds inthe future. Special aention and monitoring mustbe paid to nonnative invasive plants; if they arenot controlled, they may spread so rapidly thatthey become impossible to control.

Conservation in ActionThe San Pedro River National Conservation Area,designated by Congress as a Riparian NationalConservation Area, is home to more than 100species of breeding birds and an additional 250species of migratory and wintering birds occur inthe area.

In cooperation with state and local conservationplanning partners, the Bureau of Land Manage-ment is maintaining and restoring sagebrushlandscapes on public lands in 11 western states toconserve sage-grouse populations.

It.is.highly.likely.that.species.that.are.either.very.rare.or.nonexistent.in..

the.US.at.present.will.expand.their.ranges.into.our.country.rom.the..

south,.thus.increasing.bird.species.diversity.in.some.geographic.areas.

USFWS

H' H G V

C C M M

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Noteworthy..A.third.o.the.165.wetland.breeding.species.in.the.United.States.show.medium.or.high.vulnerability.to.climate.change.

.Wetlands.are.susceptible.to.even.minor.changes.in.precipitation.and.temperature.and.may.be.degraded.or.eliminated.i.no.action.is.taken.to.counteract.climate.change.impacts

.Shallow.breeding.wetlands.(potholes).and.

wetland-dependent.breeding.birds.that.use.them.appear.acutely.threatened,.especially.in.the.north-central.states

.Wetland.breeding.birds.are.primarily.vulnerable.because.o.the.water.level.and.distribution.impacts.o.climate.change.on.breeding.habitats

Observations and PredictionsProjected temperature rises without comparableincreases in precipitation will have severe impactson wetland ecosystems, especially related to lossof water inputs, reduced storage capacity, timingof wetland recharge, and frequency of drought.The extent of semi-permanent and seasonalwetlands may be further reduced by increases inevaporation and reduced summer soil moisture,particularly in the prairie regions of the UnitedStates.

Impacts will probably be high on mountainouswetlands where temperature-sensitive plantsand animals will be unable to move upslope.Wetlands that depend on snowmelt will diminishor disappear. An increase in the severity of stormsand tornadoes will increase the incidence of ash-ood erosion events or alter the length of time thata wetland holds water.

Carbon stores in wetland soils in the U.S. may

be released following wetland drainage or ifpermafrost wetlands melt. Bacteria which live inaerated conditions will oxidize the carbon andreturn it to the atmosphere.

Bird Species VulnerabilitySlightly more than one-third (36%) of the 165wetland breeding species in the United Statesshow medium or high vulnerability to climatechange. Wetland breeding birds such as Westernand Clarks grebe and Northern Pintail areprimarily vulnerable to changes in water level anddistribution that aect breeding habitats. Thirty-two wetland breeding bird species exhibitingmedium or high vulnerability are currently notconsidered of conservation concern including

Sabines Gull, Pomarine Jaeger, and Arctic Loon.

Excessive chemicals, nutrients, and sedimentsfrom unsustainable agriculture can disrupt thefunction of wetlands, dramatically reducing cleanwater and other environmental benets, andeliminating critical areas needed by wetland birds.

WETLANDSTemperature riseswill have severeimpacts on wetland birds

MarshW

renbyAmyLiest

Global.climate.change.will.degrade.wetlands,.aecting.birds.and.other.wildlie.. .

Warming.temperatures.and.more.storms,.droughts,.and.oods.will.cause..

unpredictable.changes.in.hydrology,.plant.communities,.and.prey.abundance.

Of 165 wetlandbreeding species 36%show medium or highvulnerability due toclimate change.

Wetlands

% Low

% Medium

% High

N P J B

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Wetland.breeding.birds.are.primarily.vulnerable.

because.o.the.water.level.and.distribution.impacts..

o.climate.change.on.breeding.habitats

K R USFWS

Potential ImpactsWetland-dependent breeding birds are at riskbecause the shallow wetlands (potholes) wherethey breed appear to be acutely threatened,especially in the north-central United States.The distribution of birds is inuenced by thesurrounding landscape and the birds ability to

nd suitable habitat. It is possible that changesin climate and habitat conditions will make areasuninhabitable for some species.

Warming temperatures and storms, droughts, andoods of greater frequency and severity will causeunpredictable changes in wetland water levels,plant communities, and prey abundance and,ultimately, the abundance of wetland birds. Theeects of climate change may cause birds to shito areas with lower quality wetland habitats that

may only partially fulll their needs during criti-cal portions of their annual cycle.

Key StepsCarbon sequestration incentives can help tomitigate the eects of climate change andprotect wetlands for birds as well as for theenvironmental goods and services that wetlandsprovide to people. Federal land managementprograms can help increase the amount of carbonstored, including programs that retire farmland

from crop production and convert it back intograsslands or wetlands. During droughts smallwetlands should receive special protectionbecause of their vulnerability to conversion toagriculture at these times.

Conservation in ActionThe 2008 Farm Bill included another million acresin the Wetland Reserve Program that could pro-vide more reliable wintering habitats for wetland-dependent birds. In 2010, Congress appropriated arecord $47 million to the North American WetlandConservation Act (NAWCA) to promote wetland

conservation eorts. Organizations such as DucksUnlimited conserve and restore some of the mostcritical habitat needed for waterfowl.

A wetland landscape simulator (WETLAND-SCAPE) is now being developed to calculatethe eect of climate variability simultaneouslyon wetlands and other water resources within alandscape. This next-generation model is expectedto reect regional dierences that may exist in wet-land water depth across the Prairie Potholes. The

WETLANDSCAPE model can be used to evaluatewhich farming practices can reduce the impacts ofclimate change by producing more favorable waterbudgets for prairie wetlands.

Clark'sGrebeUSFWS

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Noteworthy

.More.than.hal.o.grassland.species.are.expected.to.ace.additional.pressures.because.o.climate.change.

.Grassland.habitats.may.dry.out.so.much.that.they.become.uninhabitable.or.many.grassland.birds

.The.southwestern.grasslands,.which.are.vital.to.both.breeding.and.wintering.bird.

species,.are.threatened.by.many.stressors.in.addition.to.climate.change

.Several.bird.species.that.are.now.common.will.probably.be.added.to.conservation.concern.lists.in.the.near.uture.unless.additional.measures.are.taken

Observations and PredictionsGrasslands in the Great Plains of the United Statesand southern Canada are predicted to get warmerwith climate change. Southwestern grasslandsare expected to become drier because of decliningprecipitation and higher temperatures, especiallythe Chihuahuan Desert grasslands of thesouthwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, whichare critical wintering areas for many grasslandbirds.

In northern grasslands, additional precipitation isexpected, but all or most grasslands are expectedto become drier because warmer temperatureswill cause increased evaporation. Variabilityin precipitation is also expected to increase;droughts, ooding, and extreme storms (suchas hailstorms) are all expected to become morecommon. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxidewill probably contribute to invasions of woodyshrubs into grasslands.

Bird Species VulnerabilityThe vulnerability of birds in grasslands is not ashigh as in other habitat types; however, 25 (57%)grassland species have medium vulnerability toclimate change, and grassland birds are at riskfor many reasons other than climate change. Sixspecies stand out as especially vulnerable. Sharp-tailed Grouse and Lesser and Greater prairie-chicken are less likely than other grassland birds

to move in response tochanging conditionsbecause they are closelytied to their leks wheremales display to aractfemales. WilsonsPhalarope, Bobolink,and Dickcissel arelong-distance migrantsthat may not be able toadapt quickly enough to changing conditions.

Species with a large proportion of the populationwintering in the Chihuahuan Desert grasslandsare also vulnerable because the habitat may dryout so much that it becomes uninhabitable.

GRASSLANDSDeclines in grassland birds will be

exacerbated by climate change

W G T R

G S

Dickcissel

USFWS

57% of grasslandspecies show mediumvulnerability due to

climate change.

Grasslands

% Low

% Medium

% High

1818

SashaKeyel


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19

Potential ImpactsClimate change is expected to exacerbate declinesin grassland birds that already have decliningpopulations, and several species that are commonnow will probably be added to conservationconcern lists in the near future unless additionalconservation measures are taken.

Although most grassland bird species appear ableto move in response to environmental changes,Christmas Bird Count data show that grasslandbirds were the only group of birds that failed toshi north during the past 40 years in response towarmer winter weather. Perhaps they did not shibecause the quality of remaining grasslands in thenorth is too poor to sustain additional birds.

As woody vegetation invades grasslands, birdsthat specialize in grassland may be replaced by

birds of shrubby or woodland habitats. Grasslandspecies have dierent thresholds of tolerance forwoody invasion; some, like Loggerhead Shrikeand Northern Bobwhite, do best in mixed areas,but disappear when the grass becomes rare.Others, like Chestnut-collared Longspur, areintolerant of even a low percentage of shrub cover.

Key StepsLarge patches of healthy grasslands will need tobe restored and protected throughout the United

States to allow grassland birds to move northas temperatures increase. Conservation of wetgrasslands and grasslands adjacent to wetlands iscritical to allow birds that require wet habitats topersist.

Active management will be needed to maintainenough grassland to support the full suite ofgrassland bird species. In addition to shrubinvasion and climate-related drying, grasslandsare threatened by intensication of agriculture,over-grazing, invasive species, and suburbanand urban development. Energy projects oen

target grasslands, making proper siting decisionsessential for grassland bird conservation. Forexample, Sharp-tailed Grouse and Lesser andGreater prairie-chickens will not breed near tallstructures such as oil rigs, wind turbines, orpower lines.

Collaborative eorts that consider grazinginterests can allow grassland birds to coexistwith cale and other grazers in many grasslands.Moderate grazing may be required to maintaingrasslands against woody invasion in some

regions, especially in grasslands that coevolovedwith native grazers.

Fire is essential for maintaining grasslands in mostareas; in other regions, re can favor nonnative

invasive plants.Increased acreage ofgrasslands managedfor wildlife is neededthroughout the UnitedStates to stabilize

grassland birds.

Climate.change.is.expected.to.exacerbate.declines.in.birds.that.already.have..

declining.populations,.and.several.now-common.birds.will.probably.be.added..

to.concern.lists.in.the.near.uture.unless.additional.conservation.measures.are.taken

Conservation in ActionWildlife conservationists have rallied aroundthe plight of grassland birds in recent years.Increasingly, farm conservation programs havebeen designed to conserve birds and otherwildlife, in addition to ghting erosion andsupporting farm income. Many of the grassland

conditions that benet livestock production suchas high grass cover and low shrub cover alsobenet many of the most sensitive grasslandbirds. Farmers, ranchers, and conservationistsare working together to combat invasive speciesand protect grasslands.

Brian

Sullivan

19

Chestnut-collared Longspur

Loggerhead Shrike by Brian Sullivan


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Observations and PredictionsAlthough changes in tree species distributionsmay occur slowly, changes to regimes in forestsare already being observed. This includes anincrease in tree mortality from insect outbreaksand increases in the length and severity of reseasons, exacerbated by increases in spring andsummer temperatures and earlier snowmelts.

Approximately half of southern tree specieswill expand northward. One of the most notable

changes is the predicted expansion of oak-hickoryand oak-pine forests. Other species will decreasein importance as forest types such as aspen-birch,white-red-jack pine, maple-beech, and birchforests decrease in the United States and movenorth into Canada.

In the western United States, high-elevationchaparrals and grasslands are projected toincrease at the expense of subalpine forests,alpine tundra, and Great Basin woodlandcommunities. Plant and animal interactions

may become uncertain as tree species shi inresponse to climate change potentially creatingnew combinations of species that do not resemblecurrent plant communities or habitats.

Overall, the boreal forest is likely to decrease inarea, with major changes occurring along thesouthern boundaries as ranges of tree species shinorthward.

Noteworthy.

.Roughly.one-third.o.the.312.orest.breeding.species.in.the.United.States.show.high.or.medium.vulnerability.to.climate.change;.the.most.vulnerable.species.include.aerial.insectivores.and.high-elevation.breeders

.Changes.in.boreal.orests.are.expected.to.be.greater.than.those.in.temperate.or.tropical.orests,.driven.primarily.by.increased.requency.o.fre.and.other.disturbance

.Increased.requency.and.severity.o.fre.and.outbreaks.o.insect.pests,.such.as.pine-bark.beetles,.are.examples.that.climate.change.is.already.aecting.our.nations.orests

.Forest.degradation.and.deorestation.are.signifcant.sources.o.atmospheric.carbon;.orest.protection.and.management.oer.important.opportunities.to.sequester.existing.stores.o.carbon.while.also.providing.bird.habitat

Bird Species VulnerabilityAlthough only 2% of forest bird species showhigh vulnerability to climate change, morethan half of the species with medium or highvulnerability were not previously consideredspecies of conservation concern. Among speciesthat are restricted to a single forest type, a higherproportion of birds in eastern forests (75%) showmedium or high vulnerability than birds inwestern (57%), boreal (49%), or subtropical (27%)forests.

Among the most vulnerable forest speciesare Bicknells Thrush because of its restrictedbreeding range in high elevation forests in thenortheast United States, the endangered KirtlandsWarbler because winter habitat on low-lyingCaribbean islands is threatened, and specializedaerial insectivores such as Black Swi, Whip-poor-will, and Chuck-wills-widow. Forest birds

FORESTSForest birds showgreater resilience thanbirds in most habitats

The.ranges.o.many.orest.birds.will..

probably.shit.as.ranges.o.tree.species.shit,..generally.northward.or.to.higher.elevations

T' W USFWS

Overall, only 2% offorest bird species showhigh vulnerability toclimate change, andanother 30% showmedium vulnerability.

Forests

% Low

%Medium

% High

20

RedwoodNationalParkbySteveHolmer


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showing mediumvulnerability includelarge ycatchers thatfeed on aerial insectsand bird species inriparian or humidforests, mostly inthe West, that are atrisk from increaseddrought conditionsand more frequentres.

Potential Impacts to BirdsIn general, because of their large ranges and highreproductive potential, forest birds are predictedto fare beer in a changing climate than birdsin other habitats. Important exceptions include

species that are specialized on highly seasonalresources, such as aerial insects or nectar, orthat are dependent on high-elevation, extremelyhumid, or riparian forests.

The ranges of many forest birds will proabablyshi as ranges of tree species shi, generallynorthward or to higher elevations. Some speciesmay become less common in the United Statesas their ranges increase in Canada. Conversely,species currently occurring primarily in Mexicomay become more common in the UnitedStates. Increased drought and frequency of rein western forests may also alter forest birdcommunities.

More than a third of forest birds are Neotropicalmigrants. These long-distance migrating birdsmay experience mismatches in the timing ofbreeding with the availability of seasonal foodresources, causing ecological disruption of birdcommunities or reproductive failure.

Key StepsShort-term actions should focus on managingforests to increase resistance to change andpromote resilience. Managers can help forestsresist climate change by protecting forests withhigh ecological integrity such as National Forestroadless areas and by improving forest health

and reducing undesirable (or extreme) eectsof res, insects, and diseases. We can increasethe resilience of forests to accommodate gradualchanges by emphasizing process rather thanstructure and composition, such as restoringnatural re regimes where possible, and restoringnatural hydrology to maintain fragile riparianforests.

Long-term management practices will enableforests to respond to change. Examples includeforest management to assist tree speciestransitions and range shis and connectinglandscapes by protecting large forest blocks andcreating corridors, especially along latitudinaland elevation gradients.

Preservation of forests with the highest carbonstores, such as the moist mature and old-growth forests of the Pacic Northwest wouldprevent vast amount of carbon from reachingthe atmosphere if these forests were logged.Additionally, preservation of these forests

provides habitat protection for the threatenedand declining Northern Spoed Owl and MarbledMurrelet.

Beer monitoring of aerial insect eating birds,especially swis and nightjars, may provide asensitive barometer to environmental change,especially close to urban areas.

Conservation in ActionExtensive forests have huge potential to lessenhuman impacts of climate change and are partof the solution to addressing climate change.Greenhouse gas reduction through carbonsequestration can be achieved by avoidingdeforestation, promoting reforestation,

managing forests to sequester and retaincarbon, and sequestering carbon aer harvestin wood products.

HoodedWarblerUSFWS

Common Nighthawk

PamelaHunt

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A BIRD'S-EYE VIEW:ADDRESSING CLIMATE

CHANGE AT ALARGE SCALEReducing.the.impacts.o.climate.change.on.birds

Maintaining healthy bird populations in the United States in the face ofaccelerated climate change is an unprecedented challenge. It will requiremanaging natural resources in a way that responds rapidly and eectivelyto observed and anticipated changes in the condition and distribution ofhabitat, food supplies, competitors, and predators. Monitoring changes inbird populations and the resources upon which they depend is essentialto provide the lead time necessary to put conservation actions in place.

But, simply helping species adapt to a changing environment is unlikelyto produce the intended results without concurrent adoption of mitigationstrategies that slow climate change through reduction of greenhouse gasesand sequestering of atmospheric carbon.

Innovative StrategiesThe scientic sophistication and eectiveness of bird conservation in thepast two decades has greatly increased. The innovation that has helped car-ry bird populations into the 21st century must now be once again upgradedto ensure that these species survive the 21st century. Innovative solutionsare needed on three fronts: large-scale planning and implementation; newtechnological and scientic advancements for protection, enhancement, andrestoration of habitats; and identifying and abating the negative conse-quences associated with development of alternative sources of energy.

Conservation Without BordersThe ranges of many bird species may shi and change in adaptation to cli-mate change. Those changes will come about regardless of political bound-aries. So, too, must our conservation strategies be designed with seamlessboundaries. The new Department of Interior Landscape ConservationCooperatives and the Regional Climate Change Impact Response Centers,

for example, will serve as a base for innovative thinking and determiningbroad geographic priorities for wildlife in response to climate change.

These climate change think tanks will advance biological planning anddesign of large-scale conservation eorts and link with the proven deliverymodels laid down by the Migratory Bird Joint Ventures and the actionsoutlined in the State Wildlife Action Plans, which provide a comprehensiveassessment of wildlife conservation needs in each state.

New and improving data management and habitat mapping capabili-ties, along with the ability to compile and disseminate large quantities ofinformation, information management capacities, and expanding conserva-tion networking and partnerships is needed to ensure that conservation isemphasized in those places and at those spatial scales most relevant to the

Conservation eorts will need to be integrated with social and economic initiatives to maximize thereduction of greenhouse gasses and to help ensure healthy habitats for birds and for people.

BryanWatts,CenterforConservationBiolog

y

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health of shiing bird populations. These tools are necessary to help makebeer decisions that lessen the impacts of climate change within biomes,and thus, the birds that depend on them. Strategies must change from atradition that considers historic landscape conditions as the framework forprotecting intact landscapes and restoring damaged ones, to one whichmust address dynamic future environmental conditions. These strategiesmust also work within social and economic constraints and consider on-the-

ground actions that can be used to increase the chances that bird popula-tions persist in landscapes shaped by climate change.

New Technologies and Innovative ScienceMigrating forests. Rising seas. Dry, sun-baked playa lakes. Outbreaks of aviandisease. All of these may seem like scenes from a science ction movie, butall are potential consequences of changes in climate. Helping birds andother wildlife adapt to these rapid environmental changes will demand theaention of the worlds best scientic minds. Initiatives have begun that areplanting the seeds for innovative thinking and partnerships, seing priori-ties for wildlife response to climate change, and developing new technolo-

gies for assessing and compiling existing and newly acquired information.Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the Regional Climate ChangeImpact Response Centers, in partnership with universities, technology-based institutions and businesses, and individual entrepreneurs, need tobe charged with nding solutions to the perplexing challenge of keepingspecies from going extinct.

Identify new, practical ways to manage dynamic ecosystems. For exam-ple, to manage habitats that are resilient to the eects of climate change, wemust manage for intact natural ecological processes including disturbanceassociated with re and ooding.

Transfer knowledge to those charged with the day-to-day preservationof species. For example, new and improved data management and habitatmapping capabilities along with the ability to compile and disseminatelarge quantities of information, will provide land stewards with the tools tomake decisions to lessen the impacts of climate change.

Minimizing the Impact o Renewable Energy SourcesGenerating energy from renewable sources holds promise in reducinggreenhouse gas emissions, while still meeting the worlds energy demands.However, development of alternative sources of energy can represent newchallenges to bird conservation:

Habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation from the development ofnew wind farms and associated transportation corridors and power linescan cause direct mortality and indirect impacts to birds. Development ofnew technologies for renewable energy must account for potential newstressors that will negatively impact bird populations.

Production of biofuels, the use of plants or other biomass to make fuels,can reduce greenhouse gasses by reducing use of oil and its byproducts.Yet, widespread conversion of native grasslands and other habitats to rowcrops or monocultures of fast-growing grasses to make ethanol poses a riskto birds because of habitat loss, degradation, and loss of plant diversity thatbenets wildlife.

Reducing and Sequestering Greenhouse GasesAs a parallel strategy to adaptive ecosystem management, society is work-

ing on measures to slow climate change by reducing production of green-house gases and sequestering atmospheric carbon.

Many mitigation strategies address improved energy eciency or thereduction of emissions; these strategies are most eective in concert the re-moval of existing carbon from the atmosphere or conserving already storedcarbon.

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Forests, grasslands, wetlands, and other ecosystems can be managed forbirds and other wildlife, as well as for storing carbon and removing carbondioxide from the atmosphere. Conservation strategies to reduce atmo-spheric carbon include avoiding deforestation (especially in tropical zonesand temperate mature and old-growth forests), promoting aorestation andreforestation, and managing vegetation for accumulation of biomass on site.

Active restoration of native vegetation and wildlife habitats can serve tosequester carbon. Cooperative partnerships between industries and landmanagement agencies can restore important habitats. In the Lower Mis-sissippi Valley, for example, more than two dozen industries, conservationorganizations, and National Wildlife Refuges have restored over 120,000acres of habitat. These eorts have resulted in the planting of more than 22million trees that will capture over 33 trillion tons of carbon during the next90 years. Ducks Unlimited and its partners developed a carbon credit pro-gram for private landowners, who in turn manage grasslands for waterfowland many other species.

There are great opportunities for ecosystem restoration and carbonsequestration through new farming practices that promote habitat diver-sity and integrate ecosystem processes, including living soils. Incentiveswithin the Farm Bill could be used to promote broad scale mitigation thatwill result in healthier ecosystems, healthier farms and farm products, andhealthier bird populations.

Conservation eorts will need to be integrated with social and economicinitiatives to maximize the reduction of greenhouse gasses and to help en-sure healthy habitats for birds and for people. Each of the above strategiesand conservation considerations are incorporated in the sections on key

steps for each habitat in this report.

Pelican

IslandUSFWS

Joint VenturesA Joint Venture is a self-directed partnership of agencies, organizations,corporations, tribes, or individuals that has formally accepted the re-sponsibility of implementing national or international bird conservationplans within a specic geographic area or for a specic taxonomic group,and has received general acceptance in the bird conservation communityfor such responsibility. Working both collectively and independently,

Joint Venture partners conduct activities in support of bird conserva-tion goals cooperatively developed by the partnership such as biologicalplanning, conservation design and prioritization, project developmentand implementation, and monitoring, evaluation, and applied researchactivities.

Nationwide, there are 18 habitat-based Joint Ventures, each addressingthe bird habitat conservation issues found within their geographic area.Additionally, three species-based Joint Ventures, all with an internationalscope, work to further the scientic understanding needed to eectivelymanage specic bird species or groups of species.

State Wildlie Action PlansDeveloped by every state and territory, State Wildlife Action Plans arecongressionally required plans that outline the conservation actionsneeded to conserve declining wildlife and their habitats before theybecome rarer and more costly to protect. State Wildlife Action Plans arehistoric in that they represent the rst nationally comprehensive conser-vation strategy for wildlife and identify what is needed to prevent morewildlife from becoming endangered. Completed in 2005, the plans werecollaboratively developed by state sh and wildlife agencies and theirpartners and identied more than 10,000 species in greatest conservation

need, their priority habitats, threats and stresses, needed conservationactions and monitoring and research priorities. The plans are updatedevery 10 years, although many states are opting to update sooner tobeer address climate change and new emerging threats. The Stateand Tribal Wildlife Grants program is the principal source of fundingto implement the plans. More information is available at hp://www.wildlifeactionplans.org/

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER STRESSORS

Ecosystems are currently under pressure from a number of stressors in addition to climate change,including habitat loss and degradation, development, pollution, toxic chemicals, overshing,invasive species, pests, disease outbreaks, habitat fragmentation, and wildres.

Climate change may interact with and amplify many of these existing stressors. As a result, birds

and habitats that are already stressed may be highly vulnerable to additional impacts due toclimate change.

Climate change will add to other existing stressors by:

Altering habitats, allowing for the increase of invasive species. As invasive species expand, theycan outcompete native species, leading to the reduction or loss of native plants and wildlife.

Spreading disease. Distribution of disease paerns and changes in wildlife occurrence willaect the transmission of diseases. It is also expected that infectious diseases will emerge morefrequently and in new areas due to climate change.

Exacerbating the impacts of storm-surge ooding and shoreline erosion. Increasingly developedcoastal communities and rising sea level will limit potential habitat for coastal birds.

Changing the distribution and availability of surface and ground water. Climate changewill constrain water resources, further increasing competition among agricultural, municipal,industrial, and wildlife uses.

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The Prairie Pothole Region is the mostproductive habitat for breeding ducks in theworld. It produces 5080% of the continentsducks, even though it represents only 10% of thecontinents total wetland area.

Climate change models predict wetlandnumbers could decline dramatically, which wouldresult in large declines in the fall ight of ducks.Researchers predict the number of ponds in thePrairie Pothole region could decline by two-thirds.

The western boreal forest is the second mostimportant waterfowl breeding area on thecontinent and supports 1215 million breedingducks. In some years, this amounts to about 40%

of the continental duck population.

Waterfowl conservation eorts in somecurrently protected areas may be undermined byclimate change impacts

Observations and PredictionsA wetland simulation model applied to 95-yearweather records suggested that the most produc-tive habitat for breeding waterfowl would shiunder a drier climate from the center of the Dako-tas and southeastern Saskatchewan to the weereastern and northern fringes of the Prairie PotholeRegion where areas are currently less productive orwetlands have been drained.

With a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxidein the next century, average temperatures in thewestern boreal forest region may increase by asmuch as 8F. This is expected to result in drier aver-age conditions, greater annual climatic variation,melting permafrost, altered surface hydrology, andhigher rates of wildres.

Potential ImpactsWaterfowl are highly mobile, responsive toenvironmental variation, and have a relativelyhigh reproductive potential. However, if modelpredictions are correct, the loss of shallowwetlands their primary breeding habitat may contribute to population declines. If pondnumbers decline by two-thirds, duck numbersin north-central United States are expected to bereduced. Losing even a fraction of these habitatswould impact continental duck populations.

Key StepsWetland managers will need to make decisionsfor allocating restoration dollars in an uncertainclimatic future. For waterfowl, the potentialimpacts and uncertainties associated with climatechange need to be taken into consideration inconservation eorts to help ensure conservationsuccesses. This will involve cooperation andsupport of Joint Ventures, Flyways Councils,Land Conservation Cooperatives, conservationorganizations, and others in the recognitionof climate change in management plans andwaterfowl conservation strategies. Existingfunding sources must be enhanced signicantlyfor these purposes.

Potential.impacts.and.uncertainties.associated.with.

climate.change.may.undermine.current.waterowl.

conservation.eorts

Spotlight on Waterowl

Northern Bobwhites have declinedby 75% during the past 40 years.

Recent Farm Bill initiativesinclude goals for recovery of

bobwhite populations.

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Spotlight onResident Game Birds

The majority of resident game birds are unableto y long distances and usually move by runningor walking. Some species may not be able toshi their distributions in response to changinghabitats.

In a changing climate, White-tailed Ptarmigan

in alpine areas may be unable to nd appropriatehabitats and may have nowhere else to go.

A number of resident game birds performelaborate courtship displays on lekking groundsand are disrupted when vegetation changes occur.Western grouse and prairie-chicken populationsare already fragmented and isolated because ofhabitat loss, causing concern about the eects ofinbreeding. Increased drought in aridlands andgrasslands could further stress these species.

Observations and PredictionsResident game birds in arctic and alpine habitatsare likely to experience the greatest impacts dueto their inability to shi their range. Ptarmigandepend upon arctic and alpine habitats that arealready experiencing temperature increases.Continued change could result in vegetationshis, leaving lile or no habitat available in somelocations. Loss of ptarmigan could cause a rippleeect among other wildlife by changing predator-

prey relationships.

The inability to disperse is likely to negatively im-pact grouse in aridlands and grasslands. Chang-ing re management regimes and increasinginvasion of nonnative vegetation (e.g. cheatgrass)in aridlands will negatively impact Gunnison

and Greater sage-grouse. Because of their largeroverall population sizes, forest grouse and west-ern quail will experience range shis, but may notexperience large declines.

Key StepsState agencies will need to adapt managementstrategies and increase coordination among statesas bird populations shi. Monitoring programsthat span entire ranges of game birds will beneeded. Alternative energy projects will need tocarefully consider the needs of grassland grouseand chickens.

N B USFWS

Conservation in ActionBecause resident game birds have large clutchsizes and many breed twice a year, populationsmay quickly rebuild if conditions are suitable.Existing management programs could be shiedas vegetative communities and land uses shi.For example, Farm Bill programs could expandacreage allocations of retirement programs andshi to new areas as agricultural productionexpands to new regions. Several resident gamebird species currently benet from single speciesregional initiatives where partnerships havebeen formed and are implementing conservationmeasures to reverse declines.

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We evaluated all bird species on the basis ofve independent characteristics of sensitivity toclimate change, one measure of exposure, andthree assessments of conservation status based onfactors other than climate change.

We assessed sensitivity of birds to climate change

based on ve basic traits that demonstrate adapt-ability from temporal, spatial, ecological, andevolutionary perspectives. Each trait was scoredas zero (low sensitivity) or one (high sensitivity).In addition, we scored the exposure of each spe-cies habitat to climate change impacts on a scaleof zero (low climate exposure), one (medium), ortwo (high). Scoring was based on the expertopinion of the science commiee and outsideexperts.

Our approach provides a general picture ofpotential impacts to our nations birds. Althoughwe have a fairly good understanding of theinherent traits that make various species sensitiveto climate change, the mechanisms are extremelycomplex and yet to be fully revealed. Despiteuncertainty about how birds and their habitatswill change, we provide this rst assessment asa basis for future analyses and as a starting pointfor guiding bird conservation in response to achanging world.

Five Basic Sensitivity TraitsMigration Status: A species was consideredto have high sensitivity if it is a long-distancemigrant that traverses many habitats duringmigration, using day length as a primary cuefor timing its migrations. These species mayexperience a mismatch between food availabilityand the timing of arrival at critical stopover areasor on their breeding grounds.

Breeding Habitat Obligate: A species wasconsidered to have high sensitivity if it wascategorized in the 2009 State of the Birds reportas an obligate of a single habitat type. This factorindicates species that are less likely to be able toadapt to a dierent habitat type. Seabird speciesreceived a high vulnerability score if they forageonly in coastal or pelagic waters.

Dispersal Ability: We dened species with poordispersal ability as those that lack the ability toshi when restricted by geographic barriers,narrow elevation requirements, or high sitedelity, whose specialized behaviors may makethem unable to move in response to changingconditions, habitats, or resources. High sensitivityspecies include most island species, continentalspecies such as lekking grouse, and species withisland-like distributions, such as alpine, saltmarsh,and highly colonial breeders.

Niche Specicity: Species were scored as havinghigh sensitivity if they are highly specializedon limited resources such as food, nest sites, ormicrohabitats that are likely to be disrupted ordepleted due to climate change.

Reproductive Potential: We evaluated specieswhose life-history traits, including combinationsof low annual reproductive eort and longgeneration time, may limit their ability to adaptto climate change events. A high sensitivity scorewas given to species that only raise one or feweryoung per year.

Habitat Exposure: Species that are restricted tosub-habitatsat highest risk of disappearance orsevere degradation due to climate change wereevaluated under this measure. Species restricted tohabitats most susceptible to climate change wereconsidered to have high exposure; those speciesrestricted to habitats of medium susceptibility(especially due to increased drought conditions)were considered to have medium exposure; andspecies using the least susceptible habitats wereconsidered to have low exposure.

Overall Vulnerability: The summed scores for theve sensitivity traits and the measure of habitatexposure give a composite score of vulnerabil-ity to climate change. We categorized species asshowing High Vulnerability (Vulnerability scoreof four or more), Medium Vulnerability (vulner-ability score of two or three), or Low Vulnerability

(vulnerability score of zero or one).

Species of Conservation ConcernAll of the birds of the United States have been as-sessed for conservation need, but climate changethreats were rarely considered. These assess-ments were based on species protected by theEndangered Species Act, the USFWS list of Birdsof Conservation Concern, and the American BirdConservancy/Audubon Watchlist. If a species ison any of these lists, we included them as Species

of Conservation Concern. We then compared thevulnerability scores of birds to the current assess-ment of their conservation status.

This report calls aention to how climate changemay heighten threats for birds that are already ofconservation concern. Additionally, many speciesthat were not previously considered of conserva-tion concern may now be of concern because ofthe threat of climate change to their populations.

Our Approach

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in northern states or provinces also decreasedin southern states. Among states and provinces,rates of bird population change are correlatedwith rates of temperature change, independent oflatitude.

During the 40 years of the study, birds were foundfarther north in winters that were relatively warmand father south in colder winters. Predictions offuture temperature changes suggest that birds willcontinue to shi north and that more sedentaryspecies may be vulnerable if they are unable toshi as temperatures increase.

Birds in most habitats showed the northern rangeshi (see graph). Urban and suburban birdsshied the most, and forest birds shied thesecond most. Arctic and aridland birds did notshow biologically important shis, and grasslandbirds were the only group that shied to the southmore than to the north. Generalists (species withfewer specic habitat preferences) shied theirranges north more than those with more specic

habitat preferences except for forest birds. Eachof the 305 species in the study showed a dierentamount of range shi. Some birds and many otherspecies of wildlife are not able to shi rapidly inresponse to changing temperatures. If climatecontinues to change, future wildlife communitieswill look very dierent from those of today.

St. Paul Island USFWS

Northward Shit inWintering Ranges o Birds

One of the most noticeable climate trends in re-cent decades is the increase in winter tempera-tures in the continental United States beginningin the 1970s. Since then, January has warmedthe most (4.6F), and February the second most(3.6F). Government records indicate the twocoldest Januarys occurred in the late 1970s andthe warmest in 2006. Northern states warmedmore than southern states, and inland stateswarmed more than coastal states.

Although many factors are known to driverange changes, results from the Christmas BirdCount (CBC) show that the warmer winters in

recent decades have played an important rolein shiing winter bird ranges to the north. CBCdata from the mid-1960s through 2006 show that170 (56%) of the 305 most widespread, regularlyoccurring species have shied their ranges tothe north, whereas only 71 species (23%) haveshied to the south and 64 species (21%) havenot shied signicantly north or south.

Species also shied east or west, but an equalnumber of species moved east as moved west.Overall, the average shi over 40 years was 35miles north. Many of the species that increased

Warmer.winters.in.recent.decades..

have.played.an.important.role.in..

shiting.winter..bird.ranges.to.the.north.

Latitudinal movement by habitat

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Suggested Citation or this Report:North American Bird Conservation Initiative, U.S. Committee, 2010. The State of the Birds 2010 Report on

Climate Change, United States of America. U.S. Department of the Interior: Washington, DC.

Contributors:Project Leads:Brad Bortner, Paul Schmidt

Science Team:Brad Andres, Eleanora Babij, Laurel Barnhill, Bob Blohm, Greg Butcher, Jorge Coppen,Bob Ford, Charles Francis, Debbie Hahn, David Mehlman, David Pashley, Daniel Petit, Kenneth V. Rosen-

berg, John R. Sauer, Frank Thompson, George Wallace, Jennifer Wheeler

Communications Team:Miyoko Chu, Ashley Dayer, Steve Holmer, Alicia Frances King, Blythe Thomas,Nancy Severance

Editor: Alicia Frances King, with Steve Holmer

Designer:Susan Steiner Spear

Graphic Layout: Alicia Frances King

We thank the ollowing people or reviewing or contributing to the development o this report:

John Alexander, Beth Andujar, Fred Amidon, Jaime Collazo, Marissa Duda, Chris Elphick, Holly Freifeld,

Thomas Gardali, Michael Green, Dave Howell, Raymond King, Mark Koneff, Dave Krueper, David Leon-ard, Kent McFarland, Daniel K. Niven, Maura Naughton, Jessica Hardesty Norris, Melissa Pitkin, Doug

Tucci, Eric VanderWerf, Scott Yaich. Special thanks to Doug Inkley and John Wiens for their peer review.

Special thanks to Greg Delisle and Pat Leonard for their work on stateofthebirds.org

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service took the lead in creating this report through an unprecedented

partnership involving the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, State wildlife agencies, and nongovernmentalorganizations as a subcommittee of the U.S. North American Bir d Conservation Initiative (NABCI).

Addressing Uncertainty andUnderstanding How Birds Respondto ChangeWe live in a rapidly changing global environment. Because of dieringemission scenarios, climate predictions, and ecosystem models, we maynot be able to accurately predict the future, other than knowing we face anuncertain but certainly altered future climate. Successful conservation willrequire that solutions address the likelihood of our altered environmentstrategically and not be paralyzed by it.

Uncertainty can be reduced by developing and implementing eectiveprograms to monitor how birds respond to climate change. Climate changein combination with numerous threats is creating environments not pre-viously experienced by birds. Monitoring data are invaluable in makinginformed decisions in a changing world. We have limited information aboutmany of the species that are most vulnerable to climate change -- birds that

live in the oceans, in the arctic and alpine habitats, and along the coasts.Focusing monitoring on species that show the highest potential vulner-ability will provide the most relevant indicator of how birds are adapting toenvironmental change.

Without additional information on how birds are responding to the eectsof climate change, we will be unable to adjust our conservation and man-agement strategies. Well-designed monitoring systems will also be neededto evaluate the eectiveness of the strategies used to counteract eects ofclimate change on bird populations.

Bird monitoring is usually a passive indicator of change, without providingknowledge regarding causes or possible responses to change. It is impor-tant, of course, to know when bird populations are d

state of the birds climate change

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