stat 274 theory of interest chapter 1: the growth of money

Stat 274

Theory of Interest

Chapter 1: The Growth of Money

Brian Hartman

Brigham Young University

Is interest important?

As a very generous graduation gift, your aunt gave you 10,000.You don’t need the money now, so you have several options toinvest it.

1 Major bank savings account (0.01% per year)

2 Online bank savings account (1% per year)

3 Bond fund (5% per year)

4 Stock fund (10% per year)

2


You invest 10,000 for one year.





3


You invest 10,000 for two years.





4


You invest 10,000 until retirement (say 44 years).





5

What is interest?

An investment of K grows to S , then the di↵erence (S � K ) is theinterest.

Why do we charge interest?

Investment opportunities theory

Time preference theory

Risk premium

Should we charge interest?

6

Basic Definitions

Principal, K : The amount of money loaned by the investor, unlessotherwise specified it is loaned at time t = 0.

Amount function, AK (t): the value of K principal at time t.

Accumulation function, a(t): the value of 1 at time t,a(t) = A1(t).

Often, AK (t) = Ka(t).

What does that mean?

When is this not true?

7

Examples

1 Suppose you borrow 20 from your parents, what would AK (t)look like?

2 Suppose you borrow 20 from your friend, what would AK (t)look like?

3 Suppose you borrow 20 from your bank, what would AK (t)look like?

4 Suppose you borrow 20 from a loan shark, what would AK (t)look like?

5 Suppose you deposit 20 into a bank which earns 1 at the endof every year (but nothing during the year), what would AK (t)look like?

8

Examples

Suppose you borrow 20 from your parents, what would AK (t) looklike?

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

010

2030

40

t

A K(t)

9

Examples

Suppose you borrow 20 from your friend, what would AK (t) looklike?

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

010

2030

40

t

A K(t)

10

Examples

Suppose you borrow 20 from your bank, what would AK (t) looklike?

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

010

2030

40

t

A K(t)

11

Examples

Suppose you borrow 20 from a loan shark, what would AK (t) looklike?

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

010

2030

40

t

A K(t)

12

Examples

Suppose you deposit 20 into a bank which earns 1 at the end ofevery year (but nothing during the year), what would AK (t) looklike?

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

010

2030

40

t

A K(t)

13

E↵ective Interest in Intervals

When 0 t1 t2, the e↵ective interest rate for [t1, t2] is

i[t1,t2] =a(t2)� a(t1)

a(t1)

and if AK (t) = Ka(t) then

i[t1,t2] =AK (t2)� AK (t1)

AK (t1)

14

E↵ective Interest in Intervals, Alternatively

Alternatively, when n is an integer, we can write in for i[n�1,n]

leading to

in =a(n)� a(n � 1)

a(n � 1)

anda(n) = a(n � 1)(1 + in)

How would this simplify for i1?

15

Compound Interest

Most contracts use compound interest.

Amount function: AK (t) = K (1 + i)t

Accumulation function: a(t) = (1 + i)t

E↵ective interest rate: in = i

16

Simple Interest

When an investment grows linearly over time, it is called simpleinterest.

Amount function: AK (t) = K (1 + it)

Accumulation function: a(t) = 1 + it

E↵ective interest rate: in = i1+i(n�1)

17

Simple vs. Compound Interest

Comparison with i = 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

t

a(t)

SimpleCompound

18

Examples

1 Given AK (t) =100050�t for 0 t < 50, calculate K and a(10),

assuming that AK (t) = Ka(t). [20, 25/20]

2 For a loan of 1000, 1300 is repaid in three years. The moneywas loaned at what rate of simple interest? [10%]

19

Compound Interest Examples

An account is opened with 12000 and is closed in 6.5 years. Theaccount earns 5% interest. How much is withdrawn from theaccount if

Compound interest is paid throughout. [16478.27]

Compound interest is paid on each whole year and thensimple interest is paid on the last half year. [16483.18]

20

E↵ective interest rates for simple interest

2400 is loaned at 5% simple interest for three years. The annuale↵ective rates are:

i1 =2520� 2400

2400= 5%

i2 =2640� 2520

2520⇡ 4.76%

i3 =2760� 2640

2640⇡ 4.55%

How could you improve those rates?

21

Tiered Interest Account

Assume an account pays 2% compound interest on balances lessthan 2000, 3% compound interest on balances between 2000 and5000, and 4% compound interest on balances above 5000. What isA1800(t)?

22

Examples

1 Assume that 1000 is deposited into an account. The e↵ectiveannual compound interest rate is 3% for the first year, 4% forthe next two, and 1% for the next three. How much would bein the account at the end of the six years? [1147.80]

2 Suppose you want to have 1000 in three years. You currentlyhave 900 to invest. What interest rate (annuallycompounding) do you need to accomplish your goal? [3.57%]

3 Suppose you want to have 1000 in three years. If you couldearn 2% annually compounding interest, how much would youneed to invest to accomplish your goal? [942.32]

23

Examples

Assume that 1000 is deposited into an account. The e↵ectiveannual compound interest rate is 3% for the first year, 4% for thenext two, and 1% for the next three. How much would be in theaccount at the end of the six years? [1147.80]

24

Examples

Suppose you want to have 1000 in three years. You currently have900 to invest. What interest rate (annually compounding) do youneed to accomplish your goal? [3.57%]

25

Examples

Suppose you want to have 1000 in three years. If you could earn2% annually compounding interest, how much would you need toinvest to accomplish your goal? [942.32]

26

Discount Rates

You may need to pay the interest in advance. The amount paid istaken o↵ the amount available at the beginning of the term. Forexample, if you were to borrow 100 for one year at a 7% annualdiscount rate, you would be given 93 and would have to pay back100.

d[t1,t2] =a(t2)� a(t1)

a(t2)

27

Discount Rates

If AK (t) = Ka(t) then

d[t1,t2] =AK (t2)� AK (t1)

AK (t2)

Similar to in, when n is a positive integer,

dn =a(n)� a(n � 1)

a(n)and a(n � 1) = a(n)(1� dn)

28

Equivalence of Interest and Discount Rates

Two rates are equivalent if they correspond to the sameaccumulation function.

1 =�1 + i[t1,t2]

� �1� d[t1,t2]

�

i[t1,t2] =d[t1,t2]

1� d[t1,t2]and d[t1,t2] =

i[t1,t2]1 + i[t1,t2]

Similarly,

in =dn

1� dnand dn =

in1 + in

29

Time Value of Money

100 now is worth more than 100 in three years. The value today of100 in three years is determined by the discount function

v(t) =1

a(t)

When using the compound interest accumulation function,a(t) = (1 + i)t , we can define the discount factor

v =1

1 + i

and show that

v(t) =1

a(t)=

1

(1 + i)t= v t

30

Simple Discount

Though it is rare, simple discount rates do exist. Note that whenthe accumulation function is linear (simple interest), the equivalentdiscount function is not (why?).

Simple discount is of the following form v(t) = 1a(t) = 1� tD.

What would happen if t > 1D ?

31

Compound Discount

Now, if d is constant we have

i =d

1� d

and

d =i

1 + i= iv

32

Discount Examples

1 You need 3000 today to pay tuition. You can borrow moneyat a 4% annual discount rate and will repay the money whenyou graduate in three years. How much do you need toborrow today? [3390.84]

2 You are going to receive a bonus of 100 in five years. Youwould like to sell that bonus today at a discount rate of nomore than 5%. What is the smallest amount you wouldaccept today? [77.38]

33

Nominal Interest Rates

Often, interest is credited more often than annually. The monthly(or quarterly, semi-annually, etc.) nominal interest rate is denotedi (m) where the m is the number of payments per year.

The nominal rates are per year, so you earn i (m)

m in interest everyperiod. To find the equivalent nominal interest rate, we use thefollowing fact:

1 + i =

1 +

i (m)

m

!m

34

Nominal Discount Rates

Similar facts exist for nominal discount rates, most importantly

(1� d)�1 =

1� d (m)

m

!�m

andd (m) = m

h1� (1� d)1/m

i

35

Equating Nominal Discount and Interest

We can derive the following few relationships 1� d (m)

m

! 1 +

i (m)

m

!= 1

i (m) =d (m)

1� d (m)

m

and d (m) =i (m)

1 + i (m)

m

and most generally

1 +

i (n)

n

!n

= 1 + i = (1� d)�1 =

1� d (p)

p

!�p

36

Nominal Rate Examples

If I invest 100 today and it grows to 115 in one year, what is the

1 annual simple interest rate? [0.15]

2 annual compound interest rate? [0.15]

3 nominal interest compounded monthly? [0.1406]

4 nominal discount compounded monthly? [0.1389]

5 annual compound discount rate? [0.1304]

37

Continuous Compounding

What happens as m increases?

limm!1

i (m) = limm!1

mh(1 + i)1/m � 1

i= log(1 + i) = �

Further,i = e� � 1 and e� = 1 + i

Which results in an accumulation function of

a(t) = e�t

Note that if i > 0 and m > 1 then

i > i (m) > � > d (m) > d

38

Force of Interest

Assuming that the interest rate is variable, you may be interestedin looking at the interest rate over short periods of time. Thatinterest rate is:

i[t,t+1/m] =a(t + 1/m)� a(t)

a(t)

And the nominal interest rate is⇣a(t+1/m)�a(t)

a(t)

⌘

1/m=

⇣a(t+1/m)�a(t)

1/m

⌘

a(t)

Which as m ! 1 tends to

�t =a0(t)

a(t)=

d

dtlog a(t)

39

Force of Interest Examples

Simple interest: a(t) = 1 + rt �t =r

1 + rt

Simple discount: a(t) = (1� dt)�1 �t =d

1� dt

Compound interest: a(t) = (1 + i)t �t = log(1 + i)

40

Using Force of Interest

When using a dynamic force of interest:

a(t) = exp

⇢Z t

0�tdt

�

If �t = � then:

a(t) = exp

⇢Z t

0�dt

�= et�

Compound Interest:

�t = log(1+i) ! a(t) = exp

⇢Z t

0log(1 + i)dt

�= et log(1+i) = (1+i)t

41

Basic Contracts

Hypothetical repayment amounts for a loan of 1,000

Term (years)1 2 3 4 5

Repayment amount 1015 1035 1060 1090 1125E↵ective Annual Rate 1.50% 1.73% 1.96% 2.18% 2.38%

42

Default with no Recovery

Hypothetical repayment amounts for a loan of 1,000 with defaultswith no recovery


Defaults (/1000) 2 5 10 16 25Repayment amount 1017 1040 1071 1108 1154E↵ective Annual Rate 1.70% 1.99% 2.30% 2.59% 2.90%

43

Default with 25% Recovery

Hypothetical repayment amounts for a loan of 1,000 with defaultswith 25% recovery


Defaults (/1000) 2 5 10 16 25Repayment amount 1017 1039 1068 1103 1146E↵ective Annual Rate 1.65% 1.93% 2.22% 2.49% 2.77%

44

Inflation Protection

Repayment Amounts and Interest Rates Before InflationAdjustment for a Loan of 1000 with Inflation Protection


Repayment before adj. 995 998 1005 1010 1015E↵ective Annual Rate -0.50% -0.10% 0.17% 0.25% 0.30%

45

stat 274 theory of interest chapter 1: the growth of money

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