stafford timberland phaunos investor presentation 30 … · confidential stafford timberland...
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CONFIDENTIAL
Stafford Timberland
Stafford Timberland is the timberland division of Stafford Capital Partners Limited, company no: 4752750 registered office: 24 Old Bond Street, London, W1S 4AW
Stafford Timberland – Phaunos Investor Presentation
30 June 2015
CONFIDENTIAL 2
Stafford Timberland, a division of Stafford Capital Partners Limited ("Stafford"), is distributing this shareholder update in its capacity as manager of Phaunos Timber Fund
Limited (the "Company"). The Company is a Guernsey domiciled Authorised Closed-ended investment scheme pursuant to section 8 of the Protection of Investors (Bailiwick of
Guernsey) Law 1987, as amended and rule 6.02 of the Authorised Closed-ended Investment Schemes Rules 2008. The Ordinary Shares of the Company are admitted to the
Official List of the UK Listing Authority and to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s main market.
In distributing this update Stafford and is relying on the fact that all recipients of it are qualified investors' within the meaning of section 86(7).of FSMA who are also (i)
investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (''FPO"); or (ii) high net worth
companies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO; or.(iii) members of the Company within the meaning of Article 43(2) of the FPO; or (iv) certified high net worth
individuals within the meaning of Article 48 of the FPO; or (v) certain sophisticated investors within the meaning of Article 50(1) of the FPO (each a "relevant person"). Persons
who do not fall within any of these definitions should not rely on this document nor take any action upon it. The document is only exempt if it is distributed to the exempt
categories of recipients. This document has not been approved as a financial promotion or otherwise by a person who is authorised under FSMA for the purposes of section
21 of FSMA and rules made under such legislation or any other applicable securities laws of any other territory. Approval will be required unless the recipient of this promotion
is a relevant person. This presentation has not been, and will not be, reviewed or approved by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") or any other authority or regulatory
body.
Stafford is issuing this shareholder update, which includes a presentation by David Nunes, the Chief Executive Officer of Rayonier Canterbury LLC (“Rayonier”), a Delaware
company through which the Company holds an interest in the Matariki forest assets (the “Rayonier Presentation”) exclusively as manager of the Company and will not be
responsible to anyone other than the Company for providing regulatory and legal protections afforded to customers (as defined in the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority)
nor for providing advice in relation to the contents of this document on any matter, transaction or arrangement referred to in it. None of Stafford, the Company, Rayonier (in
respect of the Rayonier Presentation), nor any of their respective directors, officers or employees makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy
or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this shareholder update...
Stafford is authorised and regulated by the FCA but has not authorised the contents of all, or any part of, this document. To the fullest extent permitted by law. none of Stafford,
the Company and Rayonier (in respect of the Rayonier Presentation), nor any of their respective members, directors, officers, employees, agents or representatives nor any
other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies in such information or opinions or for any loss, cost or damage suffered or incurred
howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise in connection with the subject matter of this document. The contents of this
shareholder update are not to be construed as legal, financial or tax advice. This document should not be distributed in whole or in part to other parties.
This shareholder update is being supplied to shareholders solely for their information and does not constitute or contain any invitation or offer to any person to subscribe for,
otherwise acquire, or dispose of any Ordinary Shares in the Company or advise persons to do so in any jurisdiction. This shareholder update does not constitute a
recommendation regarding the Ordinary Shares of the Company.
Some statements contained in this update are or may be forward-looking statements, including without limitation any forecasts or projections. Actual results may differ from
those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors. Any forward-looking information contained in this shareholder update has been prepared on the basis of
a number of assumptions, only some of which are set out in the update,. which may prove to be incorrect, and accordingly, actual results may vary.
For the avoidance of doubt, nothing in this shareholder update is intended to constitute a profit forecast.
The value of any investments may fall over time and you may receive less back than what you invested on the back of any investment
Disclaimer
CONFIDENTIAL
1. Introduction
2. Progress over the past year
3. Current and future performance
Introduction – Sir Henry Studholme
3
CONFIDENTIAL
1. Introduction – Sir Henry Studholme, Phaunos Chairman
2. Main points – Stephen Addicott, Stafford Capital Partners
3. Phaunos update – Net Asset Value and operations
4. Management plan update
5. Updated 2015 financial guidance
6. Portfolio construction
7. Presentation on Matariki - David Nunes, CEO Rayonier
8. Looking ahead – management focus and shareholder presentation
9. Stafford’s view
Agenda
4
CONFIDENTIAL 5
Main points
CONFIDENTIAL
1. 2014 Dec NAV of USD 321m Stafford considers is a realistic estimate of the value overall
2. Forecast 2015 cash position updated from a USD 7m deficit to a USD 2m* surplus
3. Cash held increased from USD 15m (Dec 2014) to USD 21m (29 June 2015)
4. Improved cash position due to cost reductions and a 1-year harvesting contract for Mata Mineira (USD 7m
net)
5. Forward focus on further cost reductions and achieving sustainable revenues
6. Ongoing target of selling non-core assets and opportunistic sales of non-yielding assets
Main points
6
* After one-off costs of USD (2)m for the closure of Phaunos Boston and the final capital call from Greenwood Tree Farm Fund
CONFIDENTIAL 7
Phaunos update – Net Asset Value and operations
CONFIDENTIAL
Phaunos investments and % of Net Asset Value
USA
Uruguay
Brazil
New Zealand
China
Tanzania
Mozambique
Matariki 41%
Mata Mineira 15%
Eucateca 11%
Uganda
Green Resources
GTFF
Aurora 10%
Pradera Roja 7%
Green ChinaNTP
Phaunos update
Non Core = 12% combined NAV
* The December 2014 NAV of USD 321m comprises 84% core assets, 12% non-core assets and 4% parent company assets
8
CONFIDENTIAL
1. NAV reduced USD 98m from USD 419m (Dec 2013)
to USD 321m (Dec 2014)
2. The USD 98m included:
USD 63m reduction in independent valuations
USD 26m reductions recommended by Stafford
USD 18m unrealised foreign exchange losses
Offset by new equity raised
3. Relative to the 2013 values, the low & medium risk
asset values reduced by 11% and the higher risk
asset values by 54%, reflecting greater end market
uncertainty
4. Stafford considers the 31 Dec 2014 NAV of USD
321m to be realistic
Phaunos update – Net Asset Value changes
9
Comparison of the Dec 2013 & Dec 2014 NAVs
5. Updated NAV, adjusted for cash movements and foreign exchange, as at 23 June 2015, was approximately
USD 290m due mostly to a strengthening US Dollar
Low & medium risk assets Higher risk assets
CONFIDENTIAL
1. Matariki, USD 1.3m Q1 2015 dividend, but flat Chinese demand expected to limit additional dividends
in 2015
2. USD 1.5m Aurora Forestal dividend based on solid US lumber demand. Steady growth in US Housing
starts and a strong US dollar indicate a similar dividend for 2016
Phaunos update - operations
10
Chinese softwood log inventories at ocean ports US Housing starts & lumber prices
Source: International Wood Markets Group, China Bulletin June 2015Source: National Association of Home Builders/US Housing Starts March 2015;
Source: Random Lengths lumber and panel composites
CONFIDENTIAL
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Hecta
res p
lante
d
3. For Mata Mineira, the charcoal markets are oversupplied but a 529,000 m3 pulpwood contract in 2015 is
expected to net USD 7m. Discussions for a subsequent contract are still to take place but we are planning
for the 2015 contract to be a one-off event.
4. Pradera Roja/Eucateca replacement of property managers & negotiation of partial property sales
5. Active involvement on non-core assets, Green China, Green Resources, Greenwood Tree Farm and NTP
Phaunos update - operations
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Million m
3 o
f ro
und w
ood logs
Integrated steel Merchant pig iron Alloys Others Fiber
Wood consumption for charcoal, MG Brazil Wood consumption for charcoal, MG Brazil
Source: Silvicultural Association of Minas Gerais, Annual Report 2013 Source: Silvicultural Association of Minas Gerais, Annual Report 2013
CONFIDENTIAL
Phaunos update - operations
12
Mata Mineira harvesting operations Aurora Forestal thinning operations
Eucateca pruned teak logs Eucateca eucalypt harvesting operations
CONFIDENTIAL 13
Management plan update
CONFIDENTIAL
Management plan update
14
2014 – Phase I 2015 – Phase II 2016 – Phase III
Costs:Identification of cost control
measuresImplementation
Maintenance of low cost
operations
Revenues: Identify key markets Increase market accessRegular harvesting in line with
increasing volumes
Asset sales:Focus on existing interested
partiesTarget buyers Target buyers
NAV:
Provision against higher risk
assets & focus on appraisal
assumptions
NAV Consolidation Base NAV annual growth
Management: Review structures & controls Implement change Maintain & adapt as required
Primary focus: Cost reductionCost reduction and revenue
generationSustainable yields
Costs:
Revenues:
Asset sales:
NAV:
Management:
Primary focus:
Implementation
Increase market access
Target buyers
NAV Consolidation
Implement change
Cost reduction and revenue
generation
CONFIDENTIAL
Management plan update
15
2015 – Phase II 2016 – Phase III
Costs:
Revenues:
Asset sales:
NAV:
Management:
Primary focus:
2015 – Phase II
Implementation
Increase market access
Target buyers
NAV Consolidation
Implement change
Cost reduction and revenue
generation
Key changes
USD 3.0m cost reduction, annual running costs USD 15m (2014) reduced
to USD 12m (2015f)
USD 7m net increase in revenues from Mata Mineira contract; harvesting
started at Eucateca eucalypts and an unexpected Matariki dividend
No sales to report to date, but negotiations well advanced on parts of
Pradera Roja and Eucateca Teak estates
NAV considered by Stafford to be realistic
Change of property managers for Pradera Roja & Eucateca
An ongoing priority
CONFIDENTIAL 16
Updated 2015 financial guidance
CONFIDENTIAL 17
Financial guidance – cash position
2015 Financial Guidance
USD millionsDec 2014
Estimate
Dec 2014
Actual
Previous
Guidance on
2015
*Updated
Guidance on
2015
*Guidance on
2015 half year
NAV 330-360 321 ~290
NAV per share (USD/share) 0.58-0.63 0.57 0.51
Cash inflows 9 10 8 16 13
Cash outflows (16) (15) (12) (12) (6)
One-off / restructuring costs - - (3) (2) (1)
Other cash adjustments - - -
Net cash outflows (7) (5) (7) 2 6
Sale of non current assets - - - - -
Equity placement 12 12
Cash held at start of FY 8 8 13 15 15
Cash held at end of FY 13 15 6 17 21
Cash inflows and outflows are from operations & investment activities.* Indicative estimates subject to variation, NAV adjusted for FX and cash movements only
CONFIDENTIAL 18
Portfolio construction
CONFIDENTIAL
– Higher risk non-core assets include Green China, Green Resources and Greenwood Tree Farm Fund
– The core assets are dominated by lower & medium risk assets and assets with immediate harvesting potential
– We are in advanced discussions for the partial sale of Pradera Roja & Eucateca teak assets (between USD 3 to
10m in total). Once completed these sales will help to reduce the overall risk rating and lower the percentage of
non-yielding growth assets within the portfolio
Portfolio construction
19
Portfolio risk (based on 31 Dec 2014 NAV) Portfolio harvesting maturity profile
Potential sale of non-yielding
growth assets
Partial sale
of Pradera &
Eucateca
Teak assets
CONFIDENTIAL 20
Presentation on Matariki – David Nunes, CEO Rayonier
CONFIDENTIAL 21
Looking ahead
CONFIDENTIAL
Looking ahead – management focus
22
Continued focus on cost reductions and revenue generation including:
1. Matariki debt reduction
2. Market development of Eucateca eucalypts
3. Aurora Forestal sawmill augmentation to capitalise on increasing woodflows
4. Asset sales of higher risk assets supplemented by opportunistic sales of non-yielding growth assets
5. Ongoing corporate cost reductions and sale of high cost assets such as Green China
6. Development of Phaunos 5 year cashflow models and strategic plan 2016-2021
CONFIDENTIAL
Looking ahead – Shareholder communication
23
Shareholder communication over the course of the next 12 months will involve
1. August 2015 - Release of 2015 half year results
2. December 2015 - Meetings with shareholders to discuss strategic plan 2016-2021
3. March 2016 - Shareholder presentation detailing 2015 FY results and final strategic plan 2016-2021
4. April 2016 - Release of 2015 full year results
5. June 2016 - AGM and Phaunos continuation vote
CONFIDENTIAL 24
Stafford’s view
CONFIDENTIAL
1. The Dec 2014 NAV of USD 321m is a realistic overall value
2. The turnaround from a cash deficit of USD 7m to a forecast cash surplus of USD 2m in 2015 is a real
positive…. But more work is needed to achieve sustainable net revenues
3. A key to sustainable revenues is debt reduction for Matariki, along with market development for the
Brazilian eucalypt assets
4. The higher risk assets have been difficult to sell but the cashflow position does not require these assets to
be sold immediately
5. We will continue to work diligently to improve the performance of the fund
6. The Phaunos portfolio has a solid core of good quality assets that has the potential to provide sustainable
yields – we plan to prove this through its performance and through the presentation of the 2016-2021
strategic plan
Stafford’s view
25
CONFIDENTIAL
Stafford Timberland
Stafford Timberland is the timberland division of Stafford Capital Partners Limited, company no: 4752750 registered office: 24 Old Bond Street, London, W1S 4AW
Stafford Timberland – Phaunos Investor Presentation
30 June 2015