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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH@ SefihIE Publiattuns
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Editlr4r*{ihiet:SAMIR HAMMAMI
Director of Centre lor Entrepreneurship, Department of ManagoilEnt lnformation SystemsCollege ol Commerce and Business, Administration, Dhofar University
Salalah, Sultanate 6f Oman
Haesan AlyOhio State Universfi USATanrdas BandyopadhyayUniversity of Callfomia, Riverside, USADyutl Bane{eeMonash University, Australia
Derd( BlonbackPurdue University North Central, USABhalan GrcrYalVictoria Universlg, Australia
Yilln HouSyracuse Univercity, USA
Elhs KhalllMonash University, Australia
Shravan LuclaazUniversity of Nottingharn, U.K.
Paul ilcGrathPurdue Universfi Calumet, USA
Chang Woon Namlfo lnstitute for Eoonomic' HesearchGermany
Anindya Senlndian lnstitute of Management, Kolkata, lndiaLaursnt SlmulaUppsala University, Sweden sProf. Mofiamrnad AlawlnThe Universrty of Jordan AmmanJordan
lnHnalisnl Joumal d BomnicReseardr (uER) b anHaed ffi:fiaperbdinl ptnEdrod ryschb RaetErc Ddri, lnde, tsuiru tE hhstreseardrfindings in €conottlcsand ht*ts. ltprovides a fcnm b bo& ffid€fiicsano edr*in nnkcsoxmrc ureuygo rymiamn iitre fulrlsof eorrcr&s a,6h$irEssl UER ptifldt€ssisd rcseatdt ]n amfidng, €comrdcs, ftErcs, rEtagsrHltarlqrantUfre IIIitrOs, r*icfr tusan irmnairmal odonblixt.
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r.l''ffis,G
INTERNIATIOI{AL IOURNAL OF
ECOI{OMIC RESEARCH
Contents
1. Transactional and Psvchological Concerns of all Parties involved in Opaque Hotel ..........-..Room Distribution
Priti Ranjan 5'altoo, 5'arat Kanar ltnka and Bibhuti Bhrsan pradhan
2. Impact of Tourism [rakage on the Grou,'th of Economic Sectors, Employment and lncome ................11-27Distribution in Bali, Indonesia
AgtngSaryauan Wiranalba, Matle Antara andI Custi A1a Oka Suryauardani
3. clustering on The Basis of Regressic:: Equadoas: Thc Gerrerar Cas€ 29-37Jagabandha Saha
corporate Governance in Family Business: Evidence from saudi Arabia .........39-57
Jo/! Sabni, Alawila Alry and lvluhaelA/-,4saf
A Literarure Revierv of Strategic Marketing and The Resource Based View of The Firm............ .............59-73Dian Utani Sutiksno, Sucherfy, Popl Rafaidab, HapTi Ali anrtWendl Soairu
Analvsis of the Effect of Orgzruzational Commitment on Organizational Performance in.................. ....75-()0Mediation of Job Satisfaction
(Srudy on Bekasi City Government)
P. Edb Sanasi Silitonga, Dloko Sejo lyidodo and Hapqi AliFarmers' Sensitivity to Crop Loss: Evidence From India ........... . 91-100
Mohanmad ImdadulHaqorc and Md NlaTuddin Khan -Effec of Go'ernment Education Expendirure and Economic Grorvth of Human ........ 101-10gDevelopment Index Asean 2010-2014
Siti Nurjanab dan Rabma Angita
Absence of Rigorous Educational Programs as One of the Biggest Challenges Facing the................. 109-11gIslamic Finanie Industry
Mobamned H. lYarcame ,
Tourism Indusffy Development strategy Area Lake ToLa North sumatra ..,rr9-r33(Case Study on Destination Lake Toba)
Aui Dilhan and Marhayanie
1-9
4.
7.
9.
10.
_E
I
*
J
r
I l. Conflict of lnrercst lmpacr: Facors Analvsis i\ffecting the Budget (f ualirl in \lcdan Cit-r' ."""""""" I 35- 14:
Erlina
lZ. lnfluence Behayior in Lecislature Buclget Developrnent of Regions in thc Province of....""""':""""" 147-159
Aceh and North Sumatra
ldbar Yatya, l\1. Zainsl Babri'[oroqq d;- Iskanfur '\lult
13. The Antecedent of \f/ork lvlotivadon ancl the Efflect on the Performancc oi Civil Servants............'." 161-176
with Job Satisfaction as Moderaring variable (A Srudy of civil Sen".rnts (}n
West Coast, North Sumatra - lndonesia)
I)$, Pabara Cinting, Pittatin ltuhanrala and l:lisabel '\'iahaaa
14. Anall,sis of Human capital Investment on Economic Grorvth in South Sumatra 171-183
Itlaalana
15. Relationship bcrween Economic Gro*th and Property Liabiliry Insurance in the post " 185-199
liberalized erat att EnQiical Analsis of lndian Econonry
Anlan Ghostt, Abhliit Mukherlee and Shratikeerti lGusltal
16. The Influence of Human Resource on Income in Regional Development """""""""" "" 201-219
Hasnan Haslin
,t7. FRA-CDS-VDAI. based Credit crash N{odel: A German conundrum """' 221-228
Bikranadirya Ghosh
18. AnalyzeThe Social Econorrv Condition of Indonesia., ,i*r^rrr 1&brkets, the \\hv to..'..""""""' """" 229-236
Improve the lWelfare : A Case Study in Hongkong
I77a Mafrahah, Waidin lVaidin and Deden Dinar
19. Culrure in Process Organisation 237-249
Kateiina Boikoui, Daniel Lajiin, Josef l4adlka
20. The Relationship Ber,ween Cultural Distance and Destination Choice: An Evaluation of ......."""' """' 251-269
Turkey's Incoming Tourism Using Kogut Singh Formulation
Volkan AlnntuS and Ali Kogak
Zl. The Social Economy Beneficiary From l-ocal Wisdom Strategic in Sustainable..............-... 271-281
Management of Coastal Area in Indonesia
Badi Agustono and Farid Aalia
ZZ. Marketing Analysis of North-sumateraTourism an Empirical Study on Satisfaction and .............. """ 293-309
Sustainable Visit of the Asean-region Tounsts
Pantas Silaban, Paharu Cinting, EndangSulistla Nni e'- \"enni Absalt
23. Global Opportunities at Indian Higher Education Instirutions 31'1-320
J. Karthikryan and Xin Liu
24. Impact of Macroeconomic Vadables on the Stock Performance of Select Companies in.'..................321-328
Manufacturing IndustrYM. APPakREU
25. "Jio" Mere Lal: Disruption in the Indian Telecom Sector """"' 329-338
Binfua Kohli
-' ;r
i ,,ra- ' s
26. Revolution of Technological Innovation in Indian Banking Secror: Problems and prospecrs .-......... . 3j9,j5lhakti Ranlit kuuar
27. Capital Asset Pricing i\lodel: A Revierv of Thcorl; [jviclence and Applications............... . 353-371Rajib IIa//ik
28. Optimal Pricing: Theory and Application to Publiclv Supplied Bus Traosport Services... 37-]-395.\'anjE Kunnr.\:i4ql
29. srudent orientations towards course and lts lmpact: An Empirical srudy on 3g7_406Pharmacy Student
Hentant Copto, Kauilik Maadal and Deboiyoti Das
30. The Impact of Globalization: Changing of Place Identiry upon Thai Uni'ersin' 407-417S tuden ts enroll ed witb l',tenari, a
'ol p r ff # *r, \,AN G
-
lnternational |ournal of Economic Research
ISSN: 0972-9380
available at http: wwwserialsjournal.corn
@ Serials Publications pvt. Ltd.
Volume14 . NumberS . 2Ol7
Impact of Tourism Leakage on the Grorvth of liconomic Sectors,Employment and Income llistribution in Bali, Inclonesia
Agung Suryawan Wiranatha, Made Antara and I Gusti Ayu Oka SuryawardaniD octo rate Program in Touill (J dalana U ni ueri ry-Bali-l tdo retiaCo r respo ndi ng aa tbo r : bali tru!@Xaboo. cont ; ga ngda ni@gua i I cont
Abstract:Not all of the revenue generated from tourist .*p..rdiL,r" in a tourism destination such as Balireaches the tourism actors and communirv in the area, because part of it goes outside the region or abroad;this is common-lv referred to as "leakage". The purpose of this research w-as ro simulate the impact of thistourism leakage on the growth of economic sectors, emplovment and income distribudon. The simulation,based on the Social Accounting N{atrix (SANO for Bali 2012 (109x109), required primarv data obtained directlyfrom primarv sources such as households and hotels, and secondary data obtained from government agenciessuch as BPS Sutistics Indonesia - Bali Province, etc. Data analysis methods comprised: (l) descriptive analysis,aod Q) anall'5i5 of the simulation. The results of the research shorv that the highest percentage of tourismleakage was found in 4 and 5 star chain hotels (55.31oh).L-rwer levels rvere found in 1,2 and3 star hotels(15'66%), followed by 4 and 5 star non-chain hotels Q.740/o),with the lowest leakage being in non-star hotelsQ'0%)' The average leakage across all 6pes of accommodationwas 1g.4}o .The result of the simulationshows that as tourism leakage increases, economic growth is reduced, employment in the production sectorsdeclines, and income distribution becomes increasingly unequal. Conversell,, when tourism leakage is reduced,economic grourth increases, employment expands, and income distribution becomes more equal. .Keyusords.'tourism leakage, accommodation, economic sectors, employment, income distribution.
INTITODTJCTION
Background
Bali is one of the 34 provinces in Indonesia. It has a strategic locarion in the middle of Indonesia, flankedby the Australian and Asian continents, and bv rwo vasr oceans, namely the Indian and the pacific oceans.Moreover, im unique customs, culture and narural beauty have made Bali island a popular tourism destination,as evidenced by an increase in tourist arrirals e\,rry year. The number of foreign to,.rist. visiting Bali each
Agung Suryauan Wiranatha, Made Antara and I Gusti Ayu Oka Suryattardani
vear condnues to increase. From various data sources, such as Bali Government Trrurism ()fflce (201-5) and
Ba[ Suristical Office (2015), it can be seen rhar the number of foreign tourists visiting Bali has increased
rapidly from only 17,278 people in 1969, to 490,729 in 1990, 1,41.2,839 in 2000 and3,278,591i in 2013.
During the period ftom 2007 up ro 2015, rhe average gro\r,th rate in foreign tourist direct arrivals to Bali
u,as 15 Voperyear (Bati GovernmentTourism Offlcb 2015). This has led to a substantial increasc in total
expenditure by tourists as iniectors of funds intoBalit econom\,i with this increase expectecl to havc a
muldplier impact that creates income and employment in the economic sectors in the province of Bali.
Howeyer in realiry the total tourist expenditure in Bali over a certain period of time has not all
translated into incomes for the locai tourism actors and communitl,, because part of it has leaked out
before entering the Balinese economy. lt can be seen from a study by Survawardani (2014) and Survawardani
et at. (2016) who calculared tourism leakage on accommodation in Bali based on macro analysis bv using
Social Accounring matrix (SAN! found that (i) Leakage from Non-star rated hotels was2.0"/o, (ii) Leakage
from 1, Z &3 Star-rated hotels was 15.7o/o, (iii) Leakage from 4&5 Star-rated non-chain hotels was7.7o/o,
(rv) Leakage from 4&5 Star-rated chain hotels was 55.37o, and (r) and average leakage from all rypes of
hotels was 19.570. The results of calcuiation of tourism leakage of accommodation in Bali based on micro
analysisby Suryawardani et a/. (2014) showed that imported beverages, imported foods, imported fruit and
vegetables were sources of leakage in all tlrres of hotels. N{eanwhile, profit transfer for foreign owners was
also the main source of leakage in 4&5 Star-rated chain hotel followed bv management fees paid to
international chain management, payrnent for online fees, payment for foreign employees. These leakage,
especially in the accommodation sector, is caused by the import of various products and services from
abroad for needs rangmg from durable products to consumable products such as agricultural products
(Suryawardaru et al.2A1,4). So tourism leakage will obviously impact on the Balinese economy.
Reseatch Obiectirrs
The purpose of this research was to simulate the impact of tourism leakage on grorvth in various sectors
of the economy, employment and income distribution.
I.ITERATURE REtrTIEW
Tourism Leakage
Many countries have chosen tourism as a tool for economic development. Economic leakage is a
phenomenon that always occurs in the tourism industry of every country. Although this issue has b.een
mentioned for over a half century, it seems that only a few researchets have done a thorough analysis ofthis subject. Despite this fact, it by no means implies that economic leakage should be underestimated
because if a high level of leakage prevails in a region, it could decelerate that region's movement towards
economic sustainability (ftugmanand Obstfeld 2006; Polenske1989; Suptadist 2004).
Leakage is used to refer the amount spent on importing goods and services to meet the needs oftourists. Leakages occur when the local economy is unable to provide reliable, continuous, competitively
priced supply of the required product or service and of a consistent quality to meet the market demand
(I(ng, 1985; Lorton201.5;Round1989). Thus, leakage is the way in which revenue generated by tourism is
lost to other countries' economies. It is an intrinsic component of international tourism and thus is present
Imfail ofTourism Leakage on the Grou:th of Economir Seetors, Employment and Income Distribution in Bali, Indontsia
in evert' countrr,/, to widely var\ring degrees. Leakage mav be so sigyrificant in spme 6eyelc.rpine c()untriesthat it Part.iallv neutralizes thc monev qeneratecl [rv tor-rrism. I-eakage occurs thr.ugh six differentmechanisms(Unluonen et al. 2011):
(1) Goods and services. Mani'countries must purchasegoods and services ro sarisfv their vjsirors.This includes the cost o[ raw materials used to make tourism-relatecl goocls, such as souyenirs.I;or starting tourism industries, thrs is a sisnificant problem, as some counrries must import asmuch as 5A,'/o of tourism-related proclucts;
(2) Infrastructt'tre. Some less economically der.eloped countries do nor haye the domesdc abiliry tobuild tourism-related infrastructure (hotels, airports, etc.). The cost of such in'frastrucr.rre the nleaks out of the counrry;
(3) Foreign factors of production. Smaller countries often require foreign invesrmenr ro start theirtourism industry'. Thus, profits from tourism mav be lost to foreign investors. In addition, travelagents outside of the destination countr) remove money from thar market as rvell;
(4) Promotjonal expenditure. N{any countries spend considerable sums of money for adverrisemenrs .and publicity. IUaintaining a presence abroad mav -increase the volume of tourists ro a countrybut also rePresents a considerable loss of money into foreign markets;
(5) Transfer pricing. N{any foreign companies manipulare their pricing to reduce raxes and otherdudes' In smaller or less develoPed countries, 'where mai-.!- ioiirisrrr-rclarcti cumpanies may beforeign owned, this can represent a substantial loss of income;
(6) Tax exemptions. Countries with a small tourism industrv may have to give tax exempdons orother offers to increase foreign investmenr. \Vhile rhis may enlarge the tourism industry rhere, itmust be taken into account as an instrument of income loss (Archer and Fletcher 1996;Krugmanand Obstfeld 2006; Unluonen, et a/.2011).
Leakages are Payments made outside the destination economy: in other words, the proportion of thetotal holidayprice that does not reach or remain in the destination. Some leakage happens interna\ wheretourists spend money at the destination but this pays for imported goods -d ,.rrri..s. other rourismleakages are external Palments that never make it to the desrination country, such as tral'el agent commissions,tour operaror profits and foreign airlines (Eldis 201,5).
Estimation of tourism leakage has also been reported by UNEP. In Thailand, rourism leakage wasestimated at about 7}oh. rt means that much of the money spent by tourists ended up leaving Thailand viaforeign-orvned tour oPerators, aidines, hotels, imported drinks and food, etc. Estimarions for other thirdworld countries were found to range from 80% in the Caribbean to 40oh in India. The average import-related leakage for most developing countries was betwee n 4Ooh and 50oh of gross tourism earnings forsmall economies, and berween 10oh and2Ooh for most advanced and diversified economies (tJNEp 20,10).As a result of the leakage effect, tourism industries in developed countries often are much more profitableper dollar received than tourism in smaller countries. In counrries such as Turkey and the United Kingdo-,the benefit to the economy from tourism is rwice the dollar amount spent by rourists. In smaller plr..r,such as Micronesia and Polynesia, thatbenefit is half the dollar amount spent. Islands, in parricular, sufferfrom significant leakage. While some locations have managed ro nullify the leakage effect ,l*o., enrirely -
<txtng{,,y-anWirano/ho,MadeAntaraandlGustiAyuokaSuryazuardani
New York Ciry fcrr example, claims ro lrcncrrlte seren dollars for the local cconomv Per clollar sPent bl'
tourists - it has been estimated that onlr' 5'l (, ()f m()nev spenr on tclurism rem'ains in a devel<.rping countrv's
economy.
For many countries, some sources t-,i leakacc are unavoidable . lrore ign-orvned hrltels and drlines are
necessary for all but the most establishccl of tr.rurism industries. However, encoLrragement of domestic
involvement in a counrry's tourism industn' mav reduce leakage in tlre long run. currendv, the mosl PoPular
measure taken to reduce leakage is ro ser rcsrrictions on spending. Countries mav hmlr the use of foreign
currency within their borders, reducing the effect of transfer pricing. N{anv countries require visitors to
have a certain amount of money before entering.
N{eanwhile, according to Lorton (2015) and Cohen (1989), when the local economic linkages are
rveak, the revenue from tourism receipts in a local economic area tends to leak out. Engaging with local
suppliers, using local capital and resources and der.eloping the skills necessary to deliver consistentlv at an
^pp.oprirt. quality and at a comperitir.e price can reduce such leakage. One of the best rvavs to enhance
economic benefits to the local communin, and to increase the contribution to Poverw reduction is to
increase the extent of linkages betrveen the formal tourism sector (rotels, lodges, restaurants, tour oPerators
and transport providers) and the local econom\.. Increased integration can develoP strong linkages between
tourism and other economic sectors includingagriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, construction and crafts
production. In addirion, rhe creadon of local linkages needs to be part of the overall tourism development
.,.^r.gy in the planning, construction and operational phasd. Three ke,v sets of factors are imoortant in
enhancing the extent of local linkages, i.e.:
1) The creation of employmenr at all skills levels and particularly s'here there is existing capacir.v
2) New anractions created through anti-poverry tourism development strategies need to be integtated
into the rour programmes of the ground handlers and inbound operators. Creating mutually
beneficial linkages between the formal and informal sectors is critical. Local government needs
to ensure that micro-enterprises and emerging entrepreneurs are promoted in local tourism
marketing initiatives where they are often neglected.
3) The requiremenrs of new micro-enterprises for credit, marketing skills and a thorough
understanding of tourist expectations need to be met. Micro enterPrises may have particular
difficukies in meering health and safety, licensing and other regulatory requirements. Such
regulations themselves need to be crafted to encourage inclusion through assisted education and
training to ensure engagement by the poor in the industry'
Economic linkages can minimize leakages. Buying supplies tiom people in the host country allows
the benefirs ro remain. Many developing countries now encourage local farmers to supply fresh fruit and
vegetables to hotels. Labor is often the most important linkage berween a hotel and'the local economy,
through the payment of salaries and wages. Even a foreign owner will recruit locally to minimize costs.
Hotels enhance economic linkages by working with informal tourism businesses (such as a local taxi
company). Governments and toufism companies in destination countries can suPPort iniriatives to reduce
leakages by:
. using locally-owned accommodation (this can be up to half of the total holiday cost)
Impact ofTburism LeaAagc on tbe Gro'uth of Eeonomit Sectors, Employntent and Inrcne Distriburion in Ba/i, Inlontsia
' endorsing destinations that inregrate tourists into the krcal econom1,, u,here the\, can ptrrcl.rasclocal products
. promodng resorts that empkry local staff and pav reasonable salaries
' Using airlines from the host countrv, for long-haul c]estinations rhis may constirute qne-rhircl 6[rhe toral package cost (Eldis 2015)
l-acher and Saniar' (2010) say that tourism in the ruralareas of cleveloping counrries is expanclins ar arapid Pace and is often a primarl'means of income in these areas. However, high levels of leakage dramaricallvreduce the economic impact of such tourism. While the problem of economic leakage in rural perrpherresis well documented, there is a paucity of research on strategies to reduce leakage. Strategies rhat can beemployed at the village level may be especiall,v useful as rhev do not require the co-operadon of outsidestakeholders who may profit from the leakage our of the village. Lacher et al. (2010) found three strategiesemployed in rural villages in northern Tharland and uses the case-srudv method to evaluare their effecd'eness.It concludes rvith a discussion of the applicabiliry of these strategies ro orher locarions.
Zheng (2000) states that for countries in Indo-China embarking on rourism for economic grorvth,their success hinges on minimizing three types of tourism leakages, namely financial, strucrural, andoperarional leakages. He suggests that Indo-Chinese developing countries should target fairly-deplopedcountries in Asia as their main capital markets and tourist feeders at the eadv stage of ,o.,.ir,,, der.elopment.In later phases of tourism growth and expansion, rhey mav seek tourism capital and tourists from bothfairly-developed and well-develoned cor:nrrie-.. The recenrAsian finaneial crisis has presented nerv challengesto Asia Pacific tourism. It may, howeve4 create opporrunities for der,'eloping counrries in Indo-China tozttract more regional tourists and investors and reduce tourism leakages.
Social Accounting l,latrix
A Social Accounting N{atrix (SAN!, also called the National Social Accounting Matrix by Ba6 Statisricaloffice (2000), is an economic account of a traditional double-enrry shaped partirion marrix that records alleconomic transactions between actors in an economy; especially berween sectors in the producdon block,sectors within the institution block (including households), and sectors within a production factors block(?yatt and Round 1985a, i985b). Thorbecke (1985) developed the accounts in the SAM into six rypes,namely: (1) the balance of the production activiry (2) the balance of commodiries, (3) the balance ofproduction factors, (a) the balance of the institutions, (5) capital account (capital ), and (6) the balancesheet Rest of the World.
Thorbecke (1985) breaks the institutions account down into three accounrs, namely: (1) households,(2) compan)', and (3) government. Household account rows include income on labor compensatron, rerurnon capital, transfers berween households, acceptance of transfers from companies (such as insurance),government transfers, and transfers from abroad. Meanwhile, the household accounts columns includeconsumption expenditures, transfefs berween households, transfers to companies, the payment of directtaxes, and savings bn capital account. Furthermore, the company accounts row (revenue of company)includes retained earnings, transfers from households, and government transfers.
Table 1 shows the SAM can describe the iinkages between secrors, the income distribution (factorialdistribution and income distribution), and the effect of consumprion, invesrmenr, and exporr-imporr on
lgung Suryauan Wiranatha, Made Antara and I Gusti Ayu aAa Suryawardani
regional income and emplol.menr. [;rom the SANI strLrcrurc in Table 1, the follou'ing matrix equation fcrr
rhe income and expenses oI enclogenous accour]ts aggreuatelv can be formulated as follou's:
Y:T+X (1)
-fhe incclme distribudon oi cndogcnous and cxogenous accounts can be formulatccl as follorvs:
Y, = Tr, * Xr.
Yz = Trr+ 7.,, + X"o
Y, = Trr.+ T$+ X34
Yo= Xrr+X4.+Xor+X*
Equation (2) shows the factorial income distribution, equation (3) the distribution of insdrutional
income, equation (4) the total ourput according to factors of producrion, and equation (5) the other total
income (exogenous).
The expenses distriburion of endogenous and exogenous accounts can be formulated as follows:
Y', = T, t Xo,
Y'' = T"+ T" + 'i o'
Y'r: Trr+T,+Trr+Xo,
Y'o= Xro+X24+Xro+X*
According to Thorbecke (1988), Cohen (1989), Round (1989) and Polenske (1989), the analysis ofmultipliers in the SAM model is similar to the multiplier analysis of the inverse matrix of the Leontief
Inpur-Output Model. This means that analysis of the inverse matrix of the Leontief multiplier can be used
in this srudy to assess the impact of changes in several sectors in the economy.
In the SAM matrix it is assumed that the average expenditure A- is a comparison between the
expenditure of sector i to sector i with total expenditure i ffi); thus:
(2)
(3)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(e)
(4)
(s)
riolA' = T"fY'
This can be expressed in the form of matrices as follows:
If equation (1) is divided by I then:
Io o A,,1
o=ln;' 7',', r:,]
(1 1)
yfY=rlY+XlY (12)
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Impact ofTouism Leakage on tbe Grot:ttb of Ercnomic Se rtar.r, Employnent and Income Distributiott in Ba/i, Indontsia
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f:quation (10) is then subsdtuted into ccprirtion (12), to become:
l= A+XlY(l-A)Y= X
Y=(t_A),X (l 3)
where:
A
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(I-A) ,
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Y=M X (14)
= direct coefficient describing the direct eftect of some changes in one sector on another sector.
= N{atrix Leontief (Identiry N{atrix minus I\Iatrix A)
The identirv matrix is a matrix that has the number 1 in the diagonal.
= N{a = I-.eontieJlnuerse Matix =multipliers: illustrates the impact of changes in one sector on theother sectors of the entire SAI\{.
X = Vector of exogenous variables column. In this research, this is tourism leakage, mainlv reductionin imports of products and services bv accommodation/hotel sectors.
Y = Vector of endogenous variable column. In this srudy, this is output oF the economic sectors,
employment, and income distribution berween groups of people.
Equation (6) shows the total expenditure of production factors (factorial), equation (7) the totalinstitutional spending, equation (8) total expenditure input by production sectors, and equarion (9) th'e
total other expenses (exogenous). Equation (14) shows the matrix multiplication betrveen the SAr\{ muldplieraccounts matrix (N{ultiplier Accounts SAND and the exogenous accounts matrix QQ, which results in thevalue of the endogenous account marrix Qr).
RESEARCIJ I\,fETHODS
The location for this research was in the province of Bali, which was chosen because this island is one ofthe most popular toutist destinations in the rvorld, and because tourism is the leading secror in Bali'seconomy, with tourist revenue being depleted by leakage through the import of goods and services by theaccommodation sector.
Bali's economy is driven b1, the tourism sector. A snapshot of this is pror.ided by using the SocialAccounting Matrix (SAI\0 model (109x109). The desrgn of the SAN{ of Baii in 2012 used quanritarive dataderived from primary and secondary sources, including: Bali input-output table, the national socio-economicsurvey, the national labor force survey, Indonesian economic indicators, consumption surveys, and a special
survey of fousehold, savings and investments.
The data collection methods used in this research were by interview and documentation. Face-to-faceinterviews were conducted with the respondent households. Documentation involved the collection ofrelevant dztzandinformation recorded in rarious documents from the regional Bali office of BPS Starisdcs
Indonesia as well as from other related agencies.
W@ry"
Impact ofTburism Leakage on tbe Grott:th oJ'Etonamic Sertors, Employnenr and Income Distribution in Bali. Indonesia
Dara analr,sis methods comprisecl a descriprir.e analvsis and simulatjon analysis. The simularionproceeded bl manipularing the tablc in thc SAi\f of Ilali 2012 (109x109 matrix), but rvirh rhc accounrstrade marsins re mo'ed fr.m the table (rccause rhese are alreaclv includecl in er.ery rype of accounr); so thesANf oi Ba[ table hecame a 108x10u matrix. Manipulaurn .f this SAM rable finally achie'ec.l rhe matrixequation, Y = rfA'X, tl'here N'fA is thc muluplier matrix (108x1Oti), X is an exogenous
'ariable, in this case
mzunlt.the leakase from tourism (1x108), ancl y is an enclogenous yariable, i.e. the outpur secrors of theeconomv' iobs and the income distriburion among groups of people in tsali (1xiOg). The simularionsapplied eighr scenarios, four of which invrl'ed an increase in tourism leakage and four a decrease, eachwith a maximum interval of 10"/t to 40nh. The aim \L,as to see what impact each of these would have ,noutPut growth, the growth of economic sectors, emplovment and income distributjon.
RESUI.TS AND DISCU SSION
Imprrct of rotrrisr, r,eakage on the Grou,th of Eco,ornic Sectors
The simulation results presented in Table 3 indicate that a 1OYo rise in leakage, mainlv from the tourismaccommodadon sector, (scenario i) u,'ould impact negatively by decreasing th"e growth of Balit economyby an a'erage amount of -0.44oh- The largest decrease (-0.75n would occur in the sector of services andthe smallest (-010'4 in the sector of electricirv', gas and warer. with a 40oh increase in tourism leakage(scenario 4), the negatirc impact would be much grearer, reducing Bali's economic growth by -1.44oh.Thelargest decrease (-1'90n would occur in the mi.ing
^..i q.ru..yi.'g ,..,o., anci the smai.iest l-u.J2"/o) intranspo rt and communications.
However, if tourism leakage is reduced, the opposite occurs. Table 4 shows that a drop of 10oh intourism leakage (scenario-5) would har,'e a posirive impact, increasing the demand for output from all theeconomic sectors and improving economic growth by an averag e of o.'lloh. A 4oohreducdon in tourismleakage (scenario-B) u'ould increase a\rerage economic grorvth by 1.02oh.In both scenarios, rhe greatestincrease would occur in the services sector (0.25o/ofor scenario-S and 1.7s%for scenario-g) and the smallestin the mining and quarrying sector (0.030/o for scenario-S and 0.23% for scenario-g). The service secrorshows the largest gtowth compared to other economic sectors, which ind-icates that this sector cancompensate most for the decline of foreign demand for the service sector.
Impact of T<rurism Leakage on Emplovment
The production factor account (abor and non-labor/capital) is one of the primary accounrs in the BaIi .sAM model2072, in addition to the institutional, producrion secror and exrernal accounrs. The Bali SAN{model2012 includes the labor production factors or labor utilizarion per sector or subsector, so simulationscan be made of how increased/decreased tourism leakage from the accommodarion sector would affectthe absorption of labor by the economic secrors or subsectors in Bari.
Based on the simulation results presented in Table 5, an increase of 100% in tourism leakage, mainlyfrom the accommodation sector through foreign rransactions, (scenario-1) would have anegative impactbv decreasing the employment in Bali's economy by 4,013 people, from 2,272,235 to 2,268,222. A 4oo/oincrease in tourism leakage (scenario 4) would have an even greater negative impact on the economy,shrinking employment in Bali by t2,045 people, from 2,272,235 to 2,z6o,l9o.The impact on economic
lgung Suryaz,:an Wiranatha, Madt Antara and I Gusti Ayu Oka Suryau:ardant
secrors in scenario-4 is similar ro rhat in sccnario-1, u,irh agricr-rlture, livestock, firrestrv tncl fisheries losing
the mgsr iobs (4,372) ancl tl-re electricirt', sas and \\:atcr sector losing the feu'est (iust 1 ioh loss).
l-lorvever, if tourism leakagc is rec{ucecl, rhc trcncl is reversec]. The simulation results prcsented in
Table (r indicate that a 10,2, deciine in rourism lcakage (sccnario-S) rvoulcl expancl emploYment in Ba[t
ecoflomv bv 1,338 people from 2,212,235 ro 2,273,573, rvhile a 40o/o redvcrion in leakage (scenario-8)
rv<ruld expand emplovment by as many as 9,3(rti pcoplc from 2,272,235 to 2,281,(103. lrokins at the posrrive
impacts per sector, the greatest increase in iobs u'ould occur in the agriculture, Iivestock, fbrestry and
fisheries secror, by 486 in scenario-S and 3,400 in scenario-8. The smallest impxcr r'"'culd occur in the
electriciry,, gas and water sector, with zero job increase in scenario-S and iust 1 extra Person employed in
scenario-8. So the reduction of tourism leakage in the accommodation sector, through a reduction in
imports of various products and services from abroad, rvould increase the demand for local products and
services in Bali or from orher parrs of Indonesia. Then, if local producers of these goods and services
respond positivelv by increasing their producrion, this rvill increase emplovment in Bali's economic sectots'
lmpact of Tourism Leakage on Incorllc I)istribution
The simulation results regarding the impact of tourism leakage on income distribution are presented in
Tables 7 and 8. Table 7 shows that under exisring condirions according to the Baii SAN{ 201'2,i.e. before
simulation, the Gini coefficient (Gini Ratio, GR) was 0.43. \{'hen tourism leakage is increased by 10o/o
(scenario-1) the GR remains h-xed at 0.43. Horvever, when tgurism leakage is increased by 40o/o, the GR
increases to 0.46, an increase in inequality of 0.3, ',vhich is still within the range of income distribution
inequaliry This result suggests rhar increased tourism leakage causes the income distribution among social
groups to become increasingly unequal, as indicated b,v greater GR.
The opposire appears to happen when tourism leakage is reduced, as indicated b1, the results presented
in Table 8. A decrease in tourism leakage of L00/o (scenario-S) to 40o/o (scenario-8) has a positive impact on
income distribution among social groups, leading to gtowing equaliry', which is shown bv the GR getting
smaller. Under pre-simulation conditions the GR was 0.43. This GR then decreases to 4.1 when tourism
leakage is decreased by lOoh (scenario-5) and to 0.38 when tourism leakage is reduced b,v 40% (scenario-8).
These results support the hlpothesis that a reduction in tourism leakage will lead to a more equitable
distribution of income.
CONCLTJ SION AND R ECOLTI,{ ENOATION
Conclnsion
The simulation indicated that tourism leakage would rmpact on the growth of economic sectors, employment
and income distribution. Impacts include the following:
a) Increasing the level of leakage from tourism in Bali would reduce growth in the economic
sectors. On the contrary, reducing leakage by reducing imports of various products and services
from abroad for the accommodadon sector would have a positive impact by incteasing growth
in the economic sectors.
b) Increasing the level of leakage from tourism in Bali would also reduce employment in the economic
secrors of production. In contrast, reducing leakage by reducing imports from abroad fot the
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Impact ofTburism Lealage an the Grozutb of Economir Seclors, Emplayment and Inconte I)istributio, in Boli, Intlonesi,t
accommodation sector rvould har.e a positir.e impact bv expanding empl()\.me nt in the cc()n()micsectors oI production.
c) lncreasing the level of leakage From tourism in lla[ rvoulc] leacl to increasin{ incclualirv in inc.nrcdisrribution among social groups. [-lor,".cver, reducing leakaqe bv rec]ucing imports frcm abroeclfor the accommodation sector would har.e a positive impact b1, leaciing to greare r eclLralirr. in t6eincome disrribudon among these groups.
Recorrrmcndirtion
Attempts to reduce leakage from tourism in Bali, especiallv in the accommodadon sector, need to beundertaken by the relerant stakeholders, both in the tourism industry itself and in gor.ernmenr, so rhar le ssof the re\"enue generated by tourism in Bali is transferred abroad, and more of it circulates in the Balineseeconomli This will eventually enhance the growth of the economic sectors, expand employment, and leadro more equitable distribution of income among the social groups in Bali.
ACKNO\\,/LEDGE},{ENT\{''e would like to exPress our appreciation and gratirude to Bali Stacisrical otfice for pro'iding data for rhis research,Research Centre for Culture and Tourism lJdayana Unir.ersin: Bali as u.ell as TourismResearch Concorrium Udat,anaUniversiq; Bali for their support during rhis research.
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Impact ofTburism Leakage on tbe Grott:th oJ'Economic Sertors, Employntent and Income Distribution in Bali, Inlantsitt
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Inpact ofTburism Leakagt on lhe Grotttth af Ercnomic Sectors, Entf layntnt and Incame I)istribution in Ba/i, Ittionesia
Appendi.c 5
Impact of Increasing Tourism I-eakagc on Income Distribution
No -focial Cnt4ts .\'rettaio-l I tutaria') Irenaio- j IrttairtlBeJbre ,4fter Belbrt ..tlitr Be/ore 'fler llirr
1
2
Peasants in the Village
Emplovers Who Har,e
Land in Rural Areas
Peasants in the Ciq,
E,mplovers Who HaveLand in the Ciry
Lou'class in the Village
Not Labor Force inthe Village
Top class in the village
Lou, class in the Ci6'Not Labor Force in the CiwTop Class in the Cin'Gini Ratio (GR)
Dispariw:
1.40
6.46
0.46
8.32
13.51
3.87
15.20
17.08
5.26
28.45
0.43
N{oderate
1.31
6.39
0.45
8.22
13.44
3.81
1 5.14
17.16
5,18
28.83
0.43
Nloderate
1.40
6.46
0.4(t
8.32
13.51
3.81
15.20
17.08
5.26
28.45
0.43
Nloderate
r.i26.26
0.43
8.05
13.31
3.71
15.05
17.31
5.04
29.54
0.44,
Nloderate
1.40
6.46
0.46
8.32
13.51
3.87
15.20
17.08
s.26
28.45
0.43
Nloderate
13.20
3.61
14.96
17.44
4.91
30.19
0.45
il.Ioderate
1."10
6..+6
0.46
8.32
13.51
3.87
15.20
17.08
5.26
28.45
0.43
N'[oderate
t.22(r (]3
0.39
7.73
13.10
3.52
14.88
t7.57
4.19
30.78
0.46
il{oderate
1.21
614
J
4t).41
7.8ti
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nole: Scenario-l: Bali Tourism leakage increase 107o; Scenari o-2: BaE Tourism leakage increase 20yo: Scenario-3: BaltT-',.i": !^-l- - - - !-.-.--.-..- 2nol.. Q-..-^-:^--iiriii i.;ri46e iiiLicasc rvTo: .,ccfiaiiO-+: Daii iLiurlsm leakage rnCreaSe 40"h: BeJore meanS eXiSting COnditiOnbefore simularion. Afte r meaos condi tion after simulation.
Appendix 6Impact of Decteasing Tourism Leakage on Income Distribution
No Social Groupt Snnaio-5 Scenaio-6 Scenaio-7
B{ore A,fter B{ore After B{on After Btfoo After
1
2
Peasants in the VillageEmployers \X/ho Have Landin Rural Areas
Peasants in the CityEmployers Who HaveLand in the City
1.50 1.40
6.69 6.46
0.49 0.46
8.64 8.32
13.73 13.51
4.06 3.81
't5.37 15.20
16.81 17.08
5.51 5.26
27.19 28.45
0.41, 0.43
Moderate Moderate
1,.40 1..76
6.46 7.29
0.46 0.58
8.32 9.45
1.40
6.46
0.46
8.32
1.58
6.87
0.52
8.88
13.90
4.21
1s.50
16.61
5.71
26.23
0.40
N{oderate
13.51
3.87
15.20
17.08
5.26
28.4s
0.43
Moderate
13.51
3.87
15.20
17.08
5.26
28.45
0.43
Low
1,4.30
4.56
15.81
16.13
6.17
23.9s
0.38
Low
1.40
6.46
1.67
7.07
0.54
9.15
14.08
4.37
t5.64
16.39
5.93
25.16
0.39
Lorv
J
40.46
8.32
5
6
1
8
9
10
Low class in the Village 13.51
Not Labor Force in the Village 3.87
Top class in the village '15.20
Low class in the Ciry 17.08
Not Labor Force in the Ciry 5.26
Top Class in the City 28.45
Gini Ratio (GR)' 0.43
Dispariry: Moderate
Scenario-S: Bali tourism leakage decrease 10%o; Scenario-6: Bali tourism leakage decrease 20o/o,;Scenario-1:Balrtourism leakage decrease 30o%; Scenario-8: Bali tourism leakage decrease 40oh; Before means exisring conditionbefore simulation; After means condition aflter simulation.