spray foam 2013 hyatt regency, jacksonville, fl 2 general session...dr. gupta verlag spray foam 2013...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Spray Foam 2013
Hyatt Regency, Jacksonville, FL
Angela Austin, Editor - PU Magazine International
Review of the Global Spray Foam Industry
International Headlines for 2012
SPF grows only 2.3 % globally due to lower
construction activity and use in China
Global construction spending stalls in Europe,
but recovers in Asia, Middle East & Africa
Chinese SPF construction drops sharply but
recovery expected in 2013
SPF installation standards become a more
global issue
Dr. Gupta Verlag
NAFTA Headlines for 2012
NAFTA PU production up 6.2 % to 6.9Bn lbs
NAFTA SPF grows 6.6 % to reach 517 MMlbs
US construction forecasts very positive
Growth spurred on by shale gas effect
US housing starts up
US manufacturing up 34 months in a row
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Estimated Global PU Production by
Region ( MMlbs) 2010-2012
Region 2010 2011 % AAGR 2012 % AAGR
MMlbs 2011/2010 2012/2011
NAFTA 6255 6540 4.6 6945 6.2
South America 1455 1765 21.3 1785 1.1
China 12105 12785 5.6 13270 3.8
EMEA 11685 12235 4.7 11950 -2.3
Asia Pacific 4910 5400 10.0 5675 5.1
Total 36410 38725 6.4 39625 2.3
GDP Growth for Major Economies
2010-14 (F) (%)
Source UN
Country 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
China 9.2 7.7 7.9 8.0
India 6.9 5.5 6.1 6.5
USA 1.8 2.1 1.7 2.0
Canada 1.6 1.1 1.8 2.1
Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.6
Brazil 2.7 1.3 4.0 4.4
Russia 4.3 3.7 3.6 4.2
Japan -0.7 1.5 0.6 0.8
EuroZone 1.5 -0.3 0.6 1.7
World 2.7 2.2 2.4 3.2
Estimated Global PU Raw Material
Demand ( MMlbs) 2012
Dr. Gupta Verlag
(MMlbs) NAFTA S.America EMEA
Asia
Pacific China Total
MDI 2105 275 3640 1985 3085 11090
TDI 595 330 1380 465 1325 4095
Aliphatic
Isocyanates 145 20 140 55 265 625
Polyester
polyols 770 120 880 450 1100 3320
Polyether
polyols 2205 830 4960 1785 4850 14630
Additives 1125 210 950 935 2645 5865
Total 6945 1785 11950 5675 13270 39625
Market Drivers for the Global
Construction Industry
Greater globalisation needing higher living
standards
Increased urbanisation
A shortage of talent
More energy efficient buildings
Greater use of new technologies
Higher demand for sustainable living
Source: Accenture
Growth in Construction Spending
2010/2011 vs 2012-2013 (%)
IHS Global Insight
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
Eastern Europe
NAFTA
Western Europe
2010-2011
2012-2013
Continued Decline in Western European
Construction Markets 2011-2013 (%)
Dr. Gupta Verlag
(%) 2011 2012 2013
Italy -1.3 -3.0 1.3
Germany 4.2 2.6 2.0
France 1.6 -0.1 0.2
Spain -8.8 -10.1 -8.4
Turkey 5.7 5.1 4.9
UK 1.8 0.1 2.0
US Construction Outlook
House sales remain lower than pre crisis but
the foreclosure pipeline is emptying
A significant improvement in housing starts-
mainly multiple family
Non-residential construction started to pickup
especially repair and retrofit.
House prices on the rise in some States
Government has initiate house purchase
programmes in some States
Energy security remains a key driver
US Construction Spending Growth
Forecasts 2011-2016 (%)
IHS Insight
Source: US Census Bureau
US Housing Activity 2008-2012
(‘000 units)
US Housing
Activity
( ,000 units) 2007
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1(f)
201
2(f)
Total Housing
Starts
1,34
2 900 554 529 708
1,0
63
Single Family
1,03
6 616 442 415 575 860
Multifamily 306 284 112 114 133 203
New Single
Family Sales 769 482 374 310 405 605
Existing Single-
Family Home
Sales
4,95
9
4,3
38
4,5
67
4,2
08
4,4
50
5,3
00
US Housing
Activity
( ,000 units) 2007
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1(f)
201
2(f)
Total Housing
Starts
1,34
2 900 554 529 708
1,0
63
Single Family
1,03
6 616 442 415 575 860
Multifamily 306 284 112 114 133 203
New Single
Family Sales 769 482 374 310 405 605
Existing Single-
Family Home
Sales
4,95
9
4,3
38
4,5
67
4,2
08
4,4
50
5,3
00
US Housing Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total housing starts 900 554 585 685 861
Single family 616 442 435 447 585
Multiple family 284 112 150 238 276
New family sales 482 374 310 327 377
Existing single family
sales 4,338 4,567 4,208 4,500 5,040
Source: CMHC
Housing starts in Canada 2006-2012
Year
(units)
2006 227,000
2007 228,000
2008 211,000
2009 149,000
2010 180,000
2011 191,000
2012 212,000
Canadian Construction Industry
Household debt to income ratio reached 152%
in 2012 - spending slowdown
Property market still buoyant due to overseas
investment
Housing starts remain below historical
average and are forecast to fall 9-10%
Federal regulations to drive public
construction spending
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Mexican Construction Industry
Grew by 3.1 % to USD 86 million in 2012
Government initiatives increased housing
starts by 8 % in 2012
A slight trend to more eco- friendly buildings
Currently there are 5 LEED certified buildings
but over 80 are “ in the process” of
qualification
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Global Trends in SPF Production
Global: Demand growth up by 2.3 %
Western Europe: Growth for underfloor heating , weatherisation and wall insulation continues to develop due to EU legislation.
Eastern Europe: existing housing badly needs insulation, SPF offers a solution
Middle East & Africa: new energy efficiency regulations introduced, new markets open
China interim ban lifted in December
Asia Pacific: Energy prices and rebuilding after natural disasters create opportunities
ISOPA – Passive House in Belgium
Dr. Gupta Verlag
SPF Growth in Europe
Underfloor heating market booms in France &
Benelux
More energy efficiency required to reach
202020 EU initiative
Europe learns from the US…”one example
being the adoption here of the US HSE
package developed by for the spray foam
industry”. Dr Frank, ISOPA
Dr. Gupta Verlag
UK Green Deal – benefits for SPF?
Government backed loan of up to £10 K
paid back from savings in household fuel
bills
Includes insulation, windows and
furnaces
UK SPF market is 5-6Mlbs only
2 major system houses
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Challenges for SPF & Green Deal
Not enough qualified assessors
Small sized housing & building density makes
access difficult.
SPF is relatively unknown vs competition
SPF contractors NEED training
…….however, small rooms become even
smaller when insulated with “ Earth Wool”
Most UK houses have a “ cavity wall” void
suitable for filling with PU foam.
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Waterproof your roof in Thailand!
Dr. Gupta Verlag
“Spray foam…makes your roof
WATERPROOF! And Protects Against
Heat.”. Bangkok Post
Security Features of SPF in South
Africa
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Emergency shelters for Turkish
earthquake c 1960 – Future potential
BayerMaterialScience Archives
PU Magazine
Global Production Trends in SPF
2009-2012( MMlbs)
SPF Production
(MMlbs) 2009 2010 2011 2012
% change
2011/2012
NAFTA 410 448 485 517 6.6
South
America 12 14 15 16 6.7
Europe 192 145 164 175 6.7
Middle
East &
Africa 25 26 28 27 -3.6
China 172 198 205 175 -14.6
Asia
Pacific 115 105 110 120 9.1
Total 926 936 1007 1030 2.3
Source Gupta Verlag
Leading SPF Producing Countries
2011 & 2012 ( MMlbs)
Leading
producer 2011 2012
% change
2011/2012
Spain 29 26 -10.3
Russia 30 35 16.7
Benelux 33 40 21.2
Japan 50 57 14.0
China 205 175 -14.6
US 350 370 5.7
Canada 105 115 9.5
Ban on PU in China’s buildings lifted
With effect from December 2012 the use of
the use of Class A materials is not mandatory.
Class B3 ( easily combustible materials remain
banned and Class B2 are limited, meaning
Class A & B1 are now preferred
Insulation material will be included in the Fire
Safety Supervision Process meaning stricter
examination and implementation of codes
Local fire safety codes are required in 50 major cities requiring
all insulation to be B1 or better
Source: Chinese Media
Mobile SPF “ Bao house” in China
Dot architects China
Source: PU Magazine/ CPI/ IAL
Estimated SPF Production – NAFTA
2009-2012 (MMlbs)
Country 2009 2010 2011 2012
% change
2011/2012
US 305 323 350 370 5.7%
Canada 90 90 105 115 9.5%
Mexico 21 25 30 32 6.7%
Total 416 438 480 517 6.6%
Estimated Production of ccSPF &
ocSPF 2011 & 2012 ( MMlbs)
Gupta Verlag
2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012
Country Open Closed Total Open Closed Total
US 120 230 350 140 230 370
Canada 60 45 105 70 45 115
Mexico 12 18 30 10 22 32
Total 192 293 485 220 297 517
US Market Drivers for SPF
Commercial wall insulation grows
New promotion and financing options offered
to homeowner to grow demand
US “exports” health & safety “know-how” to
European SPF industry
New housing starts increasing
US SPF Industry Overcomes Problems
Overspray – dry fall technology
Fire risks - thermal and fire resistant
barriers
Health & Safety issues – certification
and training
Environmental issues – 4 G blowing
agents, low VOC, recycled and
renewable content
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Canadian Growth Slows
Dr. Gupta Verlag
• CUFCA continues to develop brand
and best practices
• No of certified installers has
increased by 56% since 2002
• No. of SPF suppliers has more than
doubled to 12 in 2012
• Problems of “ unique specifiers”
• Stagnation in market due to fewer
tax incentives and greater
competition
SPF Market in Mexico
Applications MMlbs
Residential walls & roofs 12
Cold storage 6
Industrial roofs 2
Commercial roofs 3.5
Agriculture 6
Other uses 3.5
Total 32
Dr. Gupta Verlag
• Reputation of contractors
still a problem
• PU boardstock takes market
share from SPF in food
industry & agriculture due to
cleanliness and efficient
installation
• Residential market continues
to grow due to Government
incentives to insulate homes
Future challenges
Class actions, homeowner complaints and
contractor problems
Proposal for contractor licensing
Volatile raw material costs
Increased competition due to higher number
of system suppliers
New technologies such as fiber glass with air
sealants
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Future opportunities
Government stimulus for more energy
efficiency
Growth in the housing market
Extension of tax credits for insulation
Rising standards of installation and better
communication with customers and home
owners
SPF remains a great problem solver!
Dr. Gupta Verlag
Dr. Gupta Verlag
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