Discussion

Munster Meet (October 22)

Round One

Hurricane HistoryTropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. They derive their energy through the evaporation of water from the ocean surface, which ultimatelyrecondenses into clouds and rain when moist air rises and cools to saturation. This energy source differs from that of mid-latitude cyclonic storms, such as nor'easters andEuropean windstorms, which are fueled primarily by horizontal temperature contrasts. The strong rotating winds of a tropical cyclone are a result of the conservation of angular momentum imparted by the Earth's rotation as air flows inwards toward the axis of rotation. As a result, they rarely form within 5° of the equator.[5] Tropical cyclones are typically between 100 and 2,000 km (62 and 1,243 mi) in diameter.

Tropical refers to the geographical origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively over tropical seas. Cyclone refers to their cyclonic nature, with wind blowingcounterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. The opposite direction of circulation is due to the Coriolis effect.

In addition to strong winds and rain, tropical cyclones are capable of generating high waves, damaging storm surge, and tornadoes. They typically weaken rapidly over land where they are cut off from their primary energy source. For this reason, coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to damage from a tropical cyclone as compared to inland regions. Heavy rains, however, can cause significant flooding inland, and storm surges can produce extensive coastal flooding up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the coastline. Though their effects on human populations are often devastating, tropical cyclones can relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat energy away from the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which may play an important role in modulating regional and global climate.

Tropical cyclones are areas of relatively low pressure in the troposphere, with the largest pressure perturbations occurring at low altitudes near the surface. On Earth, the pressures recorded at the centers of tropical cyclones are among the lowest ever observed at sea level.[6] The environment near the center of tropical cyclones is warmer than the surroundings at all altitudes, thus they are characterized as "warm core" systems.[7]

Wind fieldThe near-surface wind field of a tropical cyclone is characterized by air rotating rapidly around a center of circulation while also flowing radially inwards. At the outer edge of the storm, air may be nearly calm; however, due to the Earth's rotation, the air has non-zero absolute angular momentum. As air flows radially inward, it begins to rotate cyclonically (counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere) in order to conserve angular momentum. At an inner radius, air begins to ascend to the top of the troposphere. This radius is typically coincident with the inner radius of the eyewall, and has the strongest near-surface winds of the storm; consequently, it is known as the radius of maximum winds.[8] Once aloft, air flows away from the storm's center, producing a shield of cirrus clouds.[9]

The previously mentioned processes result in a wind field that is nearly axisymmetric: Wind speeds are low at the center, increase rapidly moving outwards to the radius of maximum winds, and then

decay more gradually with radius to large radii. However, the wind field often exhibits additional spatial and temporal variability due to the effects of localized processes, such as thunderstorm activity and horizontal flow instabilities. In the vertical direction, winds are strongest near the surface and decay with height within the troposphere.

At the center of a mature tropical cyclone, air sinks rather than rises. For a sufficiently strong storm, air may sink over a layer deep enough to suppress cloud formation, thereby creating a clear "eye". Weather in the eye is normally calm and free of clouds, although the sea may be extremely violent.[11] The eye is normally circular in shape, and is typically 30–65 km (19–40 mi) in diameter, though eyes as small as 3 km (1.9 mi) and as large as 370 km (230 mi) have been observed.[12][13]

The cloudy outer edge of the eye is called the "eyewall". The eyewall typically expands outward with height, resembling an arena football stadium; this phenomenon is sometimes referred to as the stadium effect.[13] The eyewall is where the greatest wind speeds are found, air rises most rapidly, clouds reach to their highest altitude, and precipitation is the heaviest. The heaviest wind damage occurs where a tropical cyclone's eyewall passes over land.[11]

In a weaker storm, the eye may be obscured by the central dense overcast, which is the upper-level cirrus shield that is associated with a concentrated area of strong thunderstorm activity near the center of a tropical cyclone.[14]

The eyewall may vary over time in the form of eyewall replacement cycles, particularly in intense tropical cyclones. Outer rainbands can organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward, which is believed to rob the primary eyewall of moisture and angular momentum. When the primary eyewall weakens, the tropical cyclone weakens temporarily. The outer eyewall eventually replaces the primary one at the end of the cycle, at which time the storm may return to its original intensity.[15]

IntensityStorm "intensity" is defined as the maximum wind speed in the storm. This speed is taken as either a 1-minute or a 10-minute average at the standard reference height of 10 meters. The choice of averaging period, as well as the naming convention for classifying storms, differs across forecast centers and ocean basins.

On occasion, tropical cyclones may undergo a process known as rapid deepening, a period in which the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone decreases by 42mb in a 24-hour period. [16] In order for rapid deepening to occur, several conditions must be in place. Water temperatures must be extremely warm (near or above 30 °C, 86 °F), and water of this temperature must be sufficiently deep such that waves do not upwell cooler waters to the surface. Wind shear must be low; when wind shear is high, the convection and circulation in the cyclone will be disrupted. Usually, an anticyclone in the upper layers of the troposphere above the storm must be present as well—for extremely low surface pressures to develop, air must be rising very rapidly in the eyewall of the storm, and an upper-level anticyclone helps channel this air away from the cyclone efficiently. [17]

SizeThere are a variety of metrics commonly used to measure storm size. The most common metrics include the radius of maximum wind, the radius of 34-knot wind (i.e. gale force), the radius of outermost closed isobar (ROCI), and the radius of vanishing wind.[19][20] An additional metric is the radius at which the cyclone's relative vorticity field decreases to 1×10−5 s−1.[13]

On Earth, tropical cyclones span a large range of sizes, from 100–2,000 kilometres (62–1,243 mi) as measured by the radius of vanishing wind. They are largest on average in the northwest Pacific Ocean basin and smallest in the northeastern Pacific Ocean basin.[21] If the radius of outermost closed isobar is less than two degrees of latitude (222 km (138 mi)), then the cyclone is "very small" or a "midget". A radius of 3–6 latitude degrees (333–670 km (207–416 mi)) is considered "average

sized". "Very large" tropical cyclones have a radius of greater than 8 degrees (888 km (552 mi)).[18] Observations indicate that size is only weakly correlated to variables such as storm intensity (i.e. maximum wind speed), radius of maximum wind, latitude, and maximum potential intensity.[20][21]

Size plays an important role in modulating damage caused by a storm. All else equal, a larger storm will impact a larger area for a longer period of time. Additionally, a larger near-surface wind field can generate higher storm surge due to the combination of longer wind fetch, longer duration, and enhanced wave setup.[22]

The upper circulation of strong hurricanes extends into the tropopause of the atmosphere, which at low latitudes is 15,000–18,000 metres (50,000–60,000 ft).[23]

Round Two

Hurricane Matthew battering Florida’s northeast coast as governor warns: ‘This is not over’

ORMOND BEACH, Fla. — Hurricane Matthew churned along Florida’s Atlantic Coast on Friday, looking increasingly like its center would remain just offshore as the storm battered the state with punishing rain, beach-swallowing sea surges and destructive wind gusts topping 100 mph.

Even if Matthew avoids making landfall and Florida dodges some of   the worst-case scenarios laid out by forecasters and public officials in recent days, the storm still poses a considerable threat to residents from Florida to North Carolina. The strongest hurricane to menace the United States in a decade is continuing its trek north as it rumbles near the coastline, and forecasts warn that a dangerous storm surge of up to 11 feet could cause life-threatening flooding in as many as four states.Early Friday, the storm weakened to a Category 3 storm, but still packed dangerous winds of 120 mph that could threaten land if the storm drifts only slightly closer to shore. The National Hurricane Center reported that the hurricane’s

center was “hugging the coast” as the storm moved along the northern part of Florida, battering the northeastern coastal areas, and headed toward Georgia and South Carolina.

“This is not over,” Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) said during a briefing Friday morning. “The worst effects are still likely to come.”

While Matthew is expected to weaken over the coming days, forecasters expect it to remain a hurricane until it pivots away from the East Coast on Sunday. On Friday afternoon, as it lashed northeast Florida, hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles from the storm’s center and tropical-storm-force winds reached as far as 185 miles.

More than 825,000 people lacked power Friday afternoon due to the storm, according to Scott’s office.

Scott said that officials were very concerned about storm surge. He also said he was particularly worried about Jacksonville, home to more residents than any other city in the South.

On Friday afternoon, video footage on social media showed water breaking through barriers surrounding Jacksonville, which is right along the coast in the northeastern corner of Florida. A cascade of water flooded along palm trees swaying in the wind and rushed toward houses not far from the water.

Millions have been ordered to evacuate homes along the Southeast, and all along the coast many more stocked up on

supplies and hunkered down as the storm approached. Matthew roared across the Caribbean before approaching the United States, and officials blamed it for at least 300 deaths in Haiti, where some reports estimated a far greater toll.President Obama on Friday said that much like during Sandy in 2012, the storm surge could cause significant damage.

“I want to emphasize to everybody that this is still a really dangerous hurricane,” Obama said during remarks in the Oval Office after he met with the heads of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Department of Homeland Security.

Obama again urged residents to listen to what local officials are saying, expressing concerns about areas in northern Florida and Georgia.

“Do not be a holdout here because we can always replace property, but we can’t replace lives,” he said.

About 22,000 people were packed into 145 shelters throughout Florida on Friday morning, according to Scott’s office. During his briefing, Scott said he had not heard of any reported deaths in Florida due to the storm by Friday morning.

In St. Lucie County, authorities said they did have a death they considered to be storm-related because a person had a medical emergency at the height of the storm when first

responders were not able to head out. But officials did not say that the emergency was caused by the hurricane.

Across the Southeastern United States, officials pleaded all week with residents to take seriously the threat of a storm that would be the strongest hurricane to hit the country since Wilma in 2005.

More than 2.5 million people were told to evacuate in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, where schools and government offices alike were shuttered this week. Florida said airports in Fort Lauderdale, Orlando and Melbourne were closed, while airlines canceled nearly 1,500 flights through the state. Disney World closed down Friday, and college football games from Gainesville, Fla., to Columbia, S.C., were called off or rescheduled.

Flood warnings were issued through late Friday night for northern Nassau County, in Florida not far from the Georgia line, as well as Camden and Glynn counties in southeastern Georgia, the National Weather Service said.

Officials in Georgia and South Carolina announced curfews in some places intended to keep people off the roads at night.

“Let’s not underestimate how dangerous this hurricane can be,” Gov. Nathan Deal (R) said at a news conference Friday. “There’s nothing certain about this other than the danger.”

South Carolina was also preparing for the storm’s arrival, declaring curfews in three counties. Gov. Nikki Haley (R)

again urged people to evacuate in advance of the storm’s arrival.

“There is nothing safe about what is getting ready to happen,” she said.

As the storm moved toward Daytona Beach on Friday morning, trees were whipped around and downed branches and power lines dotted the roads. Only police cars could be seen driving around. Just to the south in Ormond Beach, a neighbor’s tree landed on the roof of Lynn Kearns’s home, but she still had no plans to leave.

“Our street doesn’t usually flood,” said Kearns, who has lived in this part of Florida for nearly 30 years. The pine tree dangled off the roof as Kearns spoke.

Her windows were boarded up and she was watching the wind whip trees along the street, part of which was already flooded. But she said leaving would be too difficult for her mother and two dogs.

At a Hampton Inn in Ormond Beach, guests ate breakfast Friday by flashlight and LED candlelight after the electricity went out earlier that morning.

After a night of howling winds and whistling gusts, the power went out at 7:30 a.m., and through the morning large raindrops popped against windows as sheets of rain swept in all directions.

Cochise Israel lives a half-block from the beach and would ordinarily have stayed there. He said he prefers to be in the home when the roof tears off so he can move furniture into dry areas, adding that he favors “fighting it off as opposed to going back to complete destruction.”

“I’ve always rode them out,” said Israel, 38. “If anyone is in trouble, I have chainsaws and help them get out. I’ve always been the hero.”

He spent much of the week helping board up homes and fill sandbags for his older neighbors who opted to ride out the storm. But he said he had little choice but to leave this time, because he had to take care of his 97-year-old great aunt, Dorothy Butler, who suffers from dementia.

“It’s kind of hard to be so far away,” Israel said.

As guests gathered around the hotel doors to watch the squalls, the temperature in the rooms continued to rise. One of the guests, Pat Sheil, had called Tuesday to reserve a spot at the Hampton Inn for her and her cat, because her manufactured home was squarely in the path of Matthew’s winds.

“I don’t know what I’m going back to,” said Sheil, 73.

Round Three

Round Four"Hurricane"

Think the clouds are clogging up my brainLike the weather drain same as the tears on my faceAnd I'm stuck up in the storm eyeI guess I'll be alrightOh (uh oh uh oh)Oh oh (uh oh uh oh)Then it hits me likeOh (uh oh uh oh)Oh no (uh oh uh oh uh uh oh)

And you're that wind that swept me off my feetGot me flying til I'm crying and I'm down on my kneesThat's what Dorothy was afraid ofThe sneaky tornadoOh (uh oh uh oh)Oh oh (uh oh uh oh)

There's no place like home(Uh oh uh oh)Home (uh oh uh oh uh uh oh)

I'm boarding up the windowsLocking up my heartIt's like every time the wind blowsI feel it tearing us apartEvery time he smilesI let him in againEverything is fineWhen you're standing in the eye of the hurricane

Here comes the sun, here comes the rainStanding in the eye of the hurricaneHere comes the sun, here comes the rainStanding in the eye of the hurricane

I'm flopping on my bed like a flying squirrelLike a little girl hurt by the big bad worldYeah, it's twisting up my insidesCan't hide it on the outsideOh (uh oh uh oh)Oh oh (uh oh uh oh)Yeah, it hits me likeOh (uh oh uh oh)Oh no (uh oh uh oh uh uh oh)

And that's when you hold me, you hold meYou tell me that you know me, I'll never be lonelySay we made it through the storm nowBut I'm still on the look outOh (uh oh uh oh)Oh oh (uh oh uh oh)The air's getting cold(Uh oh uh oh)Cold

I'm boarding up the windowsLocking up my heartIt's like every time the wind blows

I feel it tearing us apartEvery time he smilesI let him in againEverything is fineWhen you're standing in the eye of the hurricane

Here comes the sun, here comes the rainStanding in the eye of the hurricaneHere comes the sun, here comes the rainStanding in the eye of the hurricane

He picks me up likeHe's got the way of the hurricaneAnd I think I'm fine likeI'm in the eye of the hurricane

He picks me up likeHe's got the way of the hurricaneAnd I think I'm fine likeI'm in the eye of the hurricane

And I'm floating, floatingAnd I don't know when, know when I'm gonna dropHe's got the way, he's got the way

I'm boarding up the windowsLocking up my heartIt's like every time the wind blowsI feel it tearing us apartEvery time he smilesI let him in againEverything is fineWhen you're standing in the eye of the hurricane

Here comes the sun, here comes the rainStanding in the eye of the hurricaneHere comes the sun, here comes the rainStanding in the eye of the hurricane

He picks me up likeHe's got the way of the hurricane

And I think I'm fine likeI'm in the eye of the hurricane

He picks me up likeHe's got the way of the hurricaneAnd I think I'm fine likeI'm in the eye of the hurricane

Oooh ooh oohOooh ooh ooh