special report corn soybean spec 2014-06-19

INDEPENDENT. OBJECTIVE. RELIABLE.

Speculative Trade Strategies Ahead of the June 30th USDA ReportsJune 19, 2014

Trading futures contracts and commodity options involves substantial risk of loss, and thus is not appropriate for all investors. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their fi nancial condition. 1Page

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June 19, 2014

Th e corn and soybean markets face a potentially volatile event on June 30th with the USDA Planted Acreage and June 1st Stocks Reports. December Corn is already challenging the January 10th contract low at $4.35. Th is makes sense given the weather, the possibility that the planted acreage numbers will be bearish, and the possibility that June 1st corn stocks might be higher than expected due to lower than expected feed usage for the March-May time frame. Unlike corn, the old crop soybean situation remains extremely tight, and this has (perhaps artifi cially) supported the November soybeans, which are still trading $1.37 per bushel above the January lows.

Th e short-term weather forecast remains nearly ideal for both the corn and soybean crops, and upcoming crop conditions reports are likely to show this years crops ranking as one of the best on record by July 1st. Th ere are some concerns that there has been too much rain for parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, but historically, "rain makes grain," and with rain and warm weather in the forecast for the next two weeks, there will be plenty of talk of record yields ahead. Th e current records for good to excellent ratings on June 22nd are 80% for corn and 70% for soybeans.

Th e tables on the following page show the reactions of the corn and soybean markets on the day of the report and the gain or loss for the market 10 days aft er the report.

Speculative Trade Strategies Ahead of the June 30th USDA Reports

www.HightowerReport.comTrade Recommendations

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The information in this report may be considered dated upon its release and should not be considered interpersonal advice. This report is merely an opinion on the market and is a refl ection of conditions as of its publication. Market conditions change! Traders should not consider entering positions without their own independent analysis of the markets current situation, nor without further consideration of any changes to the information contained herein that may have occurred since this report was written. The authors are not responsible for any verbal or written claims and opinions that might be provided in conjunction with this report. The trading suggestions contained herein have been provided merely as a general guide and only for the purpose of quantifying the authors opinions.

This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verifi cation has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their fi nancial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent

of Daniels Trading is strictly prohibited.

6%

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Stocks / Usage RatioEn

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World Soybean - Ending Stocks vs.Stocks / Usage Ratio

Ending Stocks Stocks / Usage RatioSource: USDA



THE HIGHTOWER REPORT June 19, 2014Futures Analysis & Forcasting

CORN FUTURES REACTION TO JUNE STOCKS/ACREAGE REPORTS

DECEMBER

YearPrice Changes Day of Report

10 Days Later

1990 3.25 -19.75

1991 -4.50 -8.50

1992 -2.50 -23.00

1993 4.75 6.75

1994 2.25 -18.75

1995 6.25 16.00

1996 8.75 18.00

1997 2.75 18.25

1998 7.00 -26.00

1999 1.50 -21.00

2000 -8.50 -16.25

2001 0.00 20.25

2002 -1.00 -6.25

2003 -6.25 -11.50

2004 -10.50 -16.75

2005 -5.25 36.25

2006 5.75 7.75

2007 -7.50 -2.25

2008 -30.00 -90.25

2009 -30.00 -29.75

2010 29.50 31.75

2011 -30.00 64.50

2012 2.50 137.75

2013 -27.50 -7.50

HigherCount 11 10

Average 6.75 35.73

Max 29.50 137.75

LowerCount 12 14

Average -13.63 -21.25

Max -30.00 -90.25

SOYBEAN FUTURES REACTION TO JUNE STOCKS/ACREAGE REPORT

NOVEMBER AUGUST

YearPrice Changes Day of Report

10 Days Later

Price Changes Day of Report

10 Days Later

1990 0.00 0.25 -0.50 -2.25

1991 -11.00 -29.25 -10.25 -28.00

1992 -4.00 -43.00 -3.25 -36.75

1993 21.50 53.50 19.50 53.00

1994 -6.25 -52.00 -3.00 -43.50

1995 -4.00 60.00 -4.50 61.25

1996 14.25 62.50 16.00 66.25

1997 -30.00 8.25 -21.25 57.25

1998 10.75 -38.75 17.25 -11.50

1999 4.50 -33.50 3.00 -22.00

2000 -15.00 -28.25 -10.00 -25.25

2001 23.00 44.75 18.50 36.75

2002 15.25 26.50 13.75 41.25

2003 -5.75 -31.25 -10.25 -29.00

2004 -30.75 -23.50 -23.00 -31.50

2005 -22.75 65.25 -20.50 65.00

2006 13.00 -11.25 11.50 -10.50

2007 39.50 17.00 39.50 16.00

2008 14.50 -58.00 19.00 -56.00

2009 -2.50 -76.50 -2.75 -98.75

2010 -9.50 85.50 -0.50 88.00

2011 -29.00 93.00 -28.00 86.25

2012 24.25 162.75 35.50 152.00

2013 -23.25 11.75 -1.50 22.75

HigherCount 10 13 10 12

Average 18.05 53.15 19.35 62.15

Max 39.50 162.75 39.50 152.00

LowerCount 13 11 14 12

Average -14.90 -38.66 -9.95 -32.92

Max -30.75 -76.50 -28.00 -98.75




Soybeans

If the weather remains favorable, the trade will soon be talking about a 46 bushel-per acre average yield for soybeans, which is up just 1.8% from the current USDA estimate. Th e trade sees actual plantings for soybeans up at least 1 million acres from the March Planting Intentions report, with talk of a jump of as many as 3 million. If there is a 2 million-acre increase and yield does indeed reach 46 bushels per acre, ending stocks would come in around 490 million bushels from 125 million for 2013/14. Th is would push the stocks/usage ratio to 14.2%, up from the record low 3.7% for 2013/14.

Th e extreme tightness in the old crop soybean supply is still not resolved, and July Soybeans or the July/November spread could still be explosive to the upside. We remain very bearish for November soybeans and are expecting a test of the $10.00 level by late July/early August if the weather remains normal from this point on. But the June 1st stocks numbers will signifi cantly impact the July and August soybean contracts. Over the past two weeks the cash market has not acted like it is heading into the tightest summer on record, and at this point, the trade seems to be assuming that last year's production will eventually be revised higher by 25-40 million

bushels. Without that extra production, the June 1st stocks fi gure could imply that the fi nal ending stocks for the 2013/14 marketing year will be 85-100 million bushels, below the current estimate of 125 million bushels that is considered to be a pipeline minimum.

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US Soybean - Ending Stocks vs.Stocks / Usage Ratio

Ending Stocks Stocks / Usage RatioSource: USDA / Hightower

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US Soybean Stocks as of June 1st

Source: USDA




Corn

Th e Acreage report will off er the most up-to-date plantings estimate for 2014/15. Some producers in the far northern Midwest may have missed out on getting all of their planting done in time, but for the most part, producers across the rest of the Midwest, the plains, delta region and the southeast appeared to have had ample opportunity to plant more acres than they intended to in March. If the average US corn yield reaches 168 bushels per acre and if planted area increases by 1 million acres, ending stocks could increase to 2.116 billion bushels, and the stocks/usage ratio could reach 15.8%, up from 8.4% in 2013/14.

Lower feedlot supplies of cattle and losses to the pig population due to the spread of the PED virus suggest that actual feed usage could be much lower than the USDAs current forecast. Th e fi rst evidence that feed usage is behind pace might show up in the June stocks update. We would not be surprised to see 2013/14 feed usage revised lower by 150-250 million bushels, which could drive the estimates for 2013/14 ending stocks higher. Th is could also have additional bearish implications for the 2014/15 crop, as it would drive beginning and ending stocks higher.

Corn is oversold aft er the recent sharp break, and it is already challenging the January lows. As long as the weather remains favorable, the trend is likely to remain down. However, the recent surge in energy prices and the possibility of gasoline tightness around the globe, especially with the unrest in the Middle East, might spark very high profi t margins for ethanol producers into the summer. It could also spark a jump in US ethanol exports, which are already running very high for the fi rst four months of this year. Keep in mind that the June 18th weekly ethanol production report showed record ethanol production and declining ethanol stocks, which suggests active exports. Livestock production is extremely profi table as well.

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Billi

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US Corn Usage - Feed & Residual

Source: USDA

22.4% Increase!

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US Corn - Ending Stocks vs.Stocks / Usage Ratio

Ending Stocks Stocks / Usage RatioSource: USDA / Hightower

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Corn - COT - Futures and OptionsManaged Money Net Position

Number Of Contracts




Strategic Approaches to the June 30th USDA Reports

Soybeans

Th e USDA reports are expected to be very bearish off of acreage, but the June 1st stocks fi gure will tell us whether the projected US ending stocks for 2013/14 are closer to 80 million or 145 million bushels. Th e weather looks favorable for a very strong start, and new crop prices look to move sharply lower. November Soybean prices are only 5% below last key high. Forced to make a predic-tion, we would say that November Soybeans are at the start of a bear trend, with downside targets of $11.83 , $11.61, $10.88 and $10.15.

1. Aggressive Bearish: SELL August Soybean futures near $13.68and BUY 2 July Week 2 $13.70 calls for 29 cents each.

In the end, a wall of supply should drive futures lower, but if there is a bullish stocks number, there could be a need to temporarily price more soybean demand out of the market. A minor upside reaction back to $14.14 would leave the trader with a 46-cent loss in futures, but the calls should be priced around 53 cents each, for a 48-cent gain for both of them. Th e trader will then have the option of either lift ing the calls and riding the trend down, or lift ing the futures if needed. A resumption of the uptrend would leave $15.04 as an up-side target for August Soybeans, but the more likely scenario would be a minor rally to $14.14 and then a resumption of the downtrend to $12.96 or lower due to long liquidation.

2. Leveraged-Bearish (Based on Good Weather): SELL 1 Novem-ber Soybean $11.60 put at 39 cents and BUY 5 September Short Dated New Crop (SDNC) $10.90 puts for 7 cents each for a net credit of 4 cents.

If the report shows a jump in planted area, it could signal the start of a more aggressive bear trend for new crop soybeans. If Novem-ber Soybeans trade down to $10.15 by late July, the $11.60 put should be trading near $1.51 for a loss of $1.12, and the $10.90 puts should be trading near 79 cents each for a gain of $3.60. Th e net gain on the spread will be $2.48 per bushel or $12,400 for the entire position. On a bullish reaction aft er the reports, the trader should be in a position to lift the short $11.60 put for a small gain and hold the $10.90 puts for a bear trend.*

*Options values are based on pricing models and are not guaranteed.

3. Old Crop/New Crop Challenge: SELL 1 July Soybean Week 1$13.70 put for 37 cents and BUY 3 September SDNC $11.20 puts for 11 cents for a net credit of 2 cents.

On a rally off a surprisingly low stocks number or a change for the worse in the weather, either look to buy back the Week 1 put at 10 cents or better, or be aggressive and look for the option to expire worthless. Th e August futures could gain dramatically on the November if the acreage number is higher than expected and the stocks number shows the need for further old crop rationing. In that scenario August soybeans could be trading above $13.70 when the July Week 1 $13.70 put expires on July 3rd, while at the same time same time November Soybeans are in a downtrend. If

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US Soybeans Planted Acreage

Source: USDA

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sUS Corn Planted Acreage

Source: USDA




the downside target of $10.15 in November Soybeans is achieved by late July, the September SDNC $11.20 puts should be trading around $1.06 (value of $5,325 each).

4. Seasonal & Fundamental Decline in Volatility: SELL the JulySoybean Week 2 $13.80 call and SELL the July Soybean Week 2 $13.20 put for a net credit of 39 cents.

In many years the seasonal peak in volatility occurs a few days ahead of the report. Th is is also the most uncertain time of the year for getting a grasp on the size of the crop. Th ese Week 2 options expire on July 11th, and as long as August Soybeans are inside of the $14.19 to $12.80 range, the trader will make some money. If they stay inside of the $13.20 to $13.80 range, the trader will col-lect the entire 39 cents.

Corn

With corn prices already 14.5% below the last key high, the market is pricing in very high yield expectations. Some traders are looking for average corn yields of 168-170 bushels per acre and 2 billion bushels or more in ending stocks. But high oil prices and a possible increase in ethanol exports, high livestock prices that could lead to an expansion in cattle and hog herds and the key unknown factor of Chinas production are all forces which could boost demand for US corn. Forced to make a prediction, we would expect December Corn to price in a nearly unachievable yield into early July and then see demand increase with the lower prices.

Historically, the corn market has had strong reactions to the June 30th reports, with an average upside move of 35.73 cents and an average downside move of 21.25 cents. If weather stays favorable, keep downside targets of $4.04 and possibly $3.85.

1. Conservative - Long Strangle: BUY a July Week 1 Corn $4.45call for 8 cents and BUY a September Short Dated New Crop (SDNC) Corn $4.40 put for 17 cents. Th e net premium outlay would be 25 cents.

Buying a Week 1 call and SDNC put could allow the trader to ben-efi t from a temporary bullish surprise in the report and/or a bullish shift in the weather. If there is a major shift in sentiment to the upside, the Week 1 call option could easily appreciate enough to fi nance the SDNC September put, which doesnt expire until Au-

gust 22nd. If prices break to a fresh low, it should result in a noted appreciation in the long put position.

2. Conservative: BUY 2 just out of the money July Corn Week 2$4.45 calls near 9 cents each (delta 0.41 each), and SELL 1 Sep-tember Corn futures contract for around $4.39.

Th is trade carries only a slightly bearish tilt. Ideally, a friendly acre-age report number or a minor weather scare could allow the trader to exit one or both of the calls for a gain and hold the short Septem-ber Corn position for a downside objective of $3.94. 3. Very Conservative - Short Dated New Crop (SDNC) Bear Put

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US Weekly Ethanol Total Production

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Billi

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lsUS Corn Stocks as of June 1st

Source: USDA




Spread: BUY the September Corn SDNC $4.40 put for 19 cents and SELL the September Corn SDNC $4.20 put for 10 cents (for a net cost of 8 cents on the position).

If there is a smaller than expected increase in acres, too much rain or simply a post-report bounce, look to buy back the $4.20 put at 5 cents and hold the $4.40 put for an objective of $4.04 basis the December futures.

4. Longer-Term Bearish: SELL a July Corn Week 1 $4.40 put for 15 cents and BUY 3 September Corn SDNC $4.20 puts for 10 cents each.

Th e July Week 1 put expires on July 3rd, and the September SDNC puts expire on August 22. Th e net premium outlay is 15 cents, and the initial delta on the position is net short 0.37 futures.

If there is a post-report bounce or a weather scare rally, look to buy back the Week 1 put at 5 cents. If there is a rally specifi cally off of the acreage number, the trader could challenge the market and look for the Week 1 put to expire worthless.

5. Longer-Term Bearish: SELL December Corn futures at $4.45 to $4.48, and then BUY a September Corn SDNC $4.45/$4.90 bull call spread for net cost of 11 cents.

Th is position off ers coverage against a temporary bullish reac-tion off of the report and/or the weather. For example, if there is a bounce to $4.66 in December Corn, the spread should be trading near 19 cents. Aggressive traders who are still bearish on the bounce could lift the $4.45 call and stay short the futures and short the $4.90 call, looking for a break to $4.04.*

6. Seasonal & Fundamental Decline in Volatility: SELL the July

Corn Week 2 $4.40 call and SELL the July Corn Week 2 $4.30 put for a 22 cents credit.

In many years the seasonal peak in volatility occurs a few days ahead of the report. Th is is also the most uncertain time of the year regarding the size of the crop. Th e Week 2 calls expire on July 11th, and as long as September Corn is inside of the range bounded by $4.07 and $4.62 , the trader will make some money. If Septem-ber Corn stays inside of the $4.30 to $4.40 range, the trader will collect the entire 22 cents.

7. Bullish: SELL December Corn futures at the market and BUY 3 September Corn SDNC $4.80 calls for 8 cents each.

Th e net delta on this position is net short 0.22 contracts to start. On a post-report decline, a good portion of the call outlay could be funded. Ideally, the market sees a 24-cent break aft er the report, allowing the trader to lift the futures and receive a free look at the upside through the third week of August.

8. Longer-Term Bottom: BUY December Corn futures near $4.40, BUY 1 July Corn Week 1 $4.25 put for 6 cents, and BUY 1 Septem-ber Corn SDNC $4.20 put for 10 cents.

On a 20-cent post-report break, the Week 1 puts should be trad-ing around 13 cents, and traders can look to bank a 7 -cent profi t. Th e traders will then own December futures and an at-the-money put that expires on August 22nd for protection. If the report is mildly bearish and December Corn establishes a low near $4.20, the trader will be in a position to benefi t from the possibility that the market had priced-in a yield that is too high for weather condi-tions or one that sees a dramatic improvement in demand due to either the energy component of corn or poor crop conditions in China.*

*Options values are based on pricing models and are not guaranteed.



Disclaimer

Th e information in this report may be considered dated upon its release and should not be considered interpersonal advice. Th is report is merely an opinion on the market and is a refl ection of conditions as of its publication. Market conditions change! Traders should not consider entering positions without their own independent analysis of the markets current situation, nor without further consideration of any changes to the information contained herein that may have occurred since this report was written. Th e authors are not responsible for any verbal or written claims and opinions that might be provided in conjunction with this report. Th e trad-ing suggestions contained herein have been provided merely as a general guide and only for the purpose of quantifying the authors opinions.

Th is report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verifi cation has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Th is report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. Th e risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their fi nancial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of Daniels Trading is strictly prohibited.


WHEN INVESTING IN THE PURCHASING OF OPTIONS, YOU MAY LOSE ALL OF THE MONEY YOU INVESTED. WHEN SELLING OPTIONS, YOU MAY LOSE MORE THAN THE FUNDS YOU INVESTED.

EXAMPLES OF SEASONAL PRICE MOVES OR EXTREME MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY THAT SUCH MOVES OR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON OCCURRENCES OR LIKELY TO OCCUR.

STRATEGIES USING COMBINATIONS OF POSITIONS, SUCH AS SPREAD AND STRADDLE POSITIONS MAY BE AS RISKY AS TAKING A SIMPLE LONG OR SHORT POSITION.

THIS MATERIAL IS CONVEYED AS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION.

THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN PREPARED BY A DANIELS TRADING BROKER WHO PROVIDES RESEARCH MARKET COMMENTARY AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AS PART OF HIS OR HER SOLICITATION FOR ACCOUNTS AND SOLICITATION FOR TRADES. DANIELS TRADING, ITS PRINCIPALS, BROKERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY TRADE IN DERIVATIVES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNTS OR FOR THE ACCOUNTS OF OTHERS. DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS (SUCH AS RISK TOLERANCE, MARGIN REQUIREMENTS, TRADING OBJECTIVES, SHORT TERM VS. LONG TERM STRATEGIES, TECHNICAL VS. FUNDAMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS, AND OTHER FACTORS) SUCH TRADING MAY RESULT IN THE INITIATION OR LIQUIDATION OF POSITIONS THAT ARE DIFFERENT FROM OR CONTRARY TO THE OPINIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONTAINED THEREIN.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES CONTRACTS OR COMMODITY OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND THEREFORE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERSTAND THE RISKS INVOLVED IN TAKING LEVERAGED POSITIONS AND MUST ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH INVESTMENTS AND FOR THEIR RESULTS.

YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES. YOU SHOULD READ THE RISK DISCLOSURE WEBPAGE ACCESSED AT WWW.DANIELSTRADING.COM AT THE BOTTOM OF THE HOMEPAGE. DANIELS TRADING IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH NOR DOES IT ENDORSE ANY TRADING SYSTEM, NEWSLETTER OR OTHER SIMILAR SERVICE. DANIELS TRADING DOES NOT GUARANTEE OR VERIFY ANY PERFORMANCE CLAIMS MADE BY SUCH SYSTEMS OR SERVICES.

special report corn soybean spec 2014-06-19

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