spatial epidemiology of child undernutrition in ethiopia. … · 2017-12-21 · debre markos...
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DEBRE MARKOS UNIVERSITYCOLLEGE OF HEALTH SCIENCESDEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Spatial Epidemiology of Child Undernutrition
in Ethiopia. Evidences from EDHS 2011 data.
By:- Zewdie Aderaw (MPH)
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Presentation outline
• Background
• Methods
• Results and Discussion
• Conclusions
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Background
Child undernutrition is one of the major public health problems
in Ethiopia.
• 28% of all child mortality is contributed by undernutrition.
• 16% of all repetitions in primary school are due to
undernutrition
• 8% of work force reductions are due to undernutrition
• Costs 55.5 billion ETB per year ( 16.5% of GDP ) due to
undernutrition.
(Todd B, et al 2005, EMOH 2013),
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Background….
• In the last 15 years, Ethiopia has made significant progress in
developing its:
Policy, strategic and program environments
Service delivery platforms to eliminate the problems. EFDR 2016,
FMOH 2016).
• However, the reduction progresses are very slow to achieve:-
4
58%48% 44% 40% 38.40%
26%
0%
41%
33%29%
25% 23.60%
13%
0%
12%
12%10%
9% 9.90%
5%
0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2000 2005 2011 2014 2016 2020 2030
wasting
underweight
stunting
“SEQOTA”
NNP II
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Background
• To bring sustainable solutions and meet the needs of the
most vulnerable community;
– Recognition of the spatial variation is very crucial.
(Smith, 2015, Legg, 2008 , Hagos, et al. 2014, Aderaw, A. et al. 2016).
• Understanding child undernutrition spatial variations using GIS isvery important to
Identify the most affected geographical locations
To allocate scarce resources to the most affected areas
To ensure equity in the community
The aim of this analysis is
• To identify the hotspot clusters of child under nutrition inEthiopia.
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Ethiopia geographical location
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Methods (1)
• Study Design:- Further secondary data analysis of EDHS
2011 (cross sectional survey).
• Population:- Children from 0-59 months
• Sample size:- A total 9638 children in 571 clusters were
considered
• Data Extraction: -
– Child nutrition status indicators with ID
– Cluster ID with GPS location were extracted
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Methods (2)
Data management and Analysis
To identify primary and secondary
clusters, SaTScan 9.4 software and ARC
GIS, ArcMap 10.1 were used.
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Methods (3)
• To identify the most likely primary cluster, Bernoulli
Model SaTScan Spatial analysis was used.
• Since the number of cases in each location had Bernoulli
distribution represented by 0/1 variable.
»The model requires data with out or with a
disease (0/1).
»The location (coordinate files) of each
cluster
(Kulldorff M. 2015).11/23/2017 9
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Methods (4)
– Likelihood ratio test was used to test the hypothesis
• “There were elevated malnourished children in side
the cluster compared to outside the cluster”.
• Locations with the maximum likelihood were
defined as the most likely primary cluster(s).
» It is the least likely to have occurred by
chance
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Ethical considerations
• A concept note was written to DHS measures
• On importance of the further analysis
• The analysis was conducted after getting permission
from DHS measures.
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Cluster Zones in the cluster LLR Pvalue
1 All zones from Tiray, Amhara, Affar Ben.Gumz. and West and North Showa andEast Wollega from Oromiya region
97.28 <0.001
2 Borena and Gedeo Zone 9.13 0.062 Guragie, Hadiya, Kemebata Alaba Yem,
North omo, Jimma, Sidama and EastShowa zones
5.67 0.682
2 Derashie 4.53 0.9542 Dire Dawa 4.45 0.9592 Zone 4 from Gambella 4.14 0.9812 Arsi Zone 3.90 0.9922 Kefich shekicho and Gambella special 3.71 0.997
Results and discussion (1) SaTScan Analysis results
Table1. SaTScan spatial analysis of child stunting in Ethiopia from 2011
EDHS data further analysis
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Results and discussion (2)
• The cluster with the
maximum likelihood is the
most likely cluster, that is, the
cluster least likely to be due
to chance. (Kulldorff. M, 2015).
• This primary cluster for
stunting, includes both
drought prone and surplus
producing areas.
• The secondary clusters were
not significantly different
from other clusters.
Fig 1. SaTScan cluster Analysis result map of child stunting 11/23/2017 13
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Table 1. SaTScan spatial analysis of child underweight in Ethiopia from
EDHS 2011 data further analysis
Results and discussion (3) SaTScan Analysis results
Cluster Zones in the cluster LLR P value
1 All zones from Tigray, Amhara Ben.
Gumz, and Afar and East Wolega and
North Showa from Oromiya
60.27 <0.0001
2 Liben, Afder, Borena and Gode 13.65 0.001
2 Harar 10.03 0.024
2 Gurage, Hadiya and Alaba T 6.69 0.330
2 Derashie 6.61 0.363
2 Gedeo 6.01 0.874
2 East Harargie 9.21 0.992
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Results and discussion (4) SaTScan Analysis results
• The primary most likely
cluster for underweight
includes both drought prone
and surplus producing areas.
• Also secondary clusters were
significant for underweight
Fig 2. SaTScan cluster Analysis of child underweight map11/23/2017 15
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Cluster Zones in the cluster LLR P value
1 Liben, Afder and Borena 28.98 <0.0001
2 Shinile, Zone 1 and zone 4 24.18 <0.0001
2 East and West Harargie, 3one 3 13.68 0.001
2 Ben. Gumz special zone 10.77 0.012
2 Western, North and south
Gondar
7.74 0.151
2 Eastern and Zone 4 6.64 0.37
Table 3. SaTScan spatial analysis of child wasting in Ethiopia from
EDHS 2011 data further analysis.
Results and discussion (5)
SaTScan Analysis results
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Results and discussion (6) SaTScan Analysis results
• The spatial pattern of child
wasting have a different
pattern compared with stunting
and underweight.
• Which might be related to it is
an acute measure of nutritional
status and sensitive to seasonal
variability
Fig 3. SaTScan cluster Analysis of child wasting map 11/23/2017 17
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Conclusion
• This spatial analysis reveals that attribute of place plays an
important role in shaping stunting, underweight and wasting
burden distribution
• Some areas experiencing higher burden of childhood
undernutrition than others.
• Planning using aggregated national data may not help full for
intervention.
• Geographical location characterization linked spatial analysis
study is very important.
• Spatiotemporal analysis to see the effect interventions through
time.11/23/2017 18
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Conclusion
• The spatial variations have public health implications to
target interventions based on vulnerability
– Geographical targeting is important
• Increases efficiency.
• Allocating more resources to the risky groups
• Has the potential to maximize program coverage.
Easy to implement
• Has low administrative costs
• Minimizes the potential for fraud
• Requires limited household and individual level
information. (Carter, et al. 2000, Brooker, et al. 2004, Baker JL. 1994).
• (Morris SS. 2001, Fenn, M. et al. 2004).
19PhD defense
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