space evaders lessons learned h4dip stanford 2016
TRANSCRIPT
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Project “Steer Clear”
102 Total Interviews
Challenge:
How can we stop space collisions from making space unusable?
Team Space Evaders
Our plan:
New method to evaluate debris creation.
Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
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Kate BoudreauJunior, Biomedical
Background: Bioinformatic
research
Expertise: Biocomputation
Tyler DammannJunior, Computer
Background: Software, computer
science
Expertise: Technology, data
Dave GablerMasters, Business/
Public [email protected]
Background: Air Force, business
Expertise:Strategy, aerospace,
management
Matthew KasemanFreshman, Aerospace
Background: Army, gov’t contracting
Expertise: Engineering
implementation
Team Space Evaders
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Increasing # of satellites
Space debris threatens critical infrastructure (GPS, communications, etc)
The Challenge
Increasing collisions
More debris
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Interviewed over 100 stakeholders
Mapped the status quo
Built simple prototypes to test our ideas
Lean methodology
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First industry process map
Focused on data flow in the collision avoidance system
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The Path to CollisionsTracking Modeling Warnings Response
“This will be an eye-opener to many people!”
- Amber, State Department
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Original Hypotheses - Tracking1) Collision warnings based
on estimates only
GPS position
Observed position
We can improve avoidance capability through:- Communication - Data Sharing
2) Satellites know precisely where they are
Solution!
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We tested many ideas
Worldwide Operator phone book
GPS data-sharing
Define debris size/shape(helps prediction accuracy)
Small satelliteID hardware
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Answer #1:This is a small part of the problem
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Answer #2:Satellite operator decision matrix
Warning?
Maneuver?
< 1% chanceY
N
N Y
< .01% chance < .01% chance
< 1% chancebut now YOU
caused it
< 1% chance
“My chances are no better if I move, so why would I assume the responsibility?”
- Commercial Satellite operator
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Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty makes the whole process unreliable
The underlying problem?
Collision warnings are only “in the ballpark”
Operators need MUCH more detail
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“This insight will frame our approach to this problem and has given us a new way forward
with the international community”
- Deputy Assistant Secretary
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The Path to CollisionsTracking Modeling Warnings Response
Mission Planning
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Too much decentralized, limited accountability decision-making
Space as a Tragedy of the Commons
Cost/schedule limitations can prevent debris mitigation efforts
Vague debris mitigation standards = significant design leeway
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Fix the Commons Problem
Make choices and consequences transparent and accountable
Debris Responsibility Score
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Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score
Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit
Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mission Debris
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“If you can show me it works, I would use it.”
-U.S. Government Regulator
“This needs to be presented at the next
satellite operators conference”
-International satellite operator
“I’ve wanted to do this myself for
years!”
-Leading industry expert/journalist
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Iteration/peer review
Best Practice
Community Standard
Deployment: Iteration & Acceptance
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Deployment: Expected Use Cases
NGO monitors tradable credits
international policy
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Summary
Instead of avoiding as many debris items asoperators choose to put in space...
...Our rating will work to prevent new debris fromgetting there at all