soy meal utilization for animal feeds in india - p.e.vijay anand

1

SOY PROPHECY FOR ANIMAL FEEDS

Dr. P E Vijay Anand

Director

India – Feed / Meal Program

2

GLOBAL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY; 2012/13 MARKETING YEAR

Brazil31%

United States31%

Argentina21%

China5%

India4%

Paraguay3%

Canada2%

Other3%

Soy Prophecy for Animal feeds

83% of world soy rests with three countries

3

SOYBEANS – WORLD V/S INDIA

Country 2011 2012 2013 (F) Change

Argentina 49.000 40.500 48.500 + 8.000

Brazil 75.500 65.500 81.200 + 15.700

China 15.100 14.480 12.600 -1.880

India 9.800 11.000 11.500 + 0.500

Paraguay 7.128 4.357 7.750 + 3.393

U.S. 90.605 84.192 82.055 - 2.137

Total 247.133 220.022 243.355 + 23.576


World will add about 23 MMT of additional beans

4

OIL SEED S & D -WORLD

Supply Demand Gap (Million Tonnes)

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Production 299 322 339 348 356 362 368

Consumption 314 320 332 343 353 362 369

Trade 104 107 113 119 123 126 129

Stocks 28 30 33 41 44 44 43

Y to Y Change -15 +2 +7 +5 +2 - -1

In the next four years we have supply ease/ but we will remain tight after 2016


5

SOYBEAN S & D -WORLD

Supply Demand Gap (Million Tonnes)

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Production 238 264 277 284 291 296 301

Consumption 251 261 271 281 289 296 302

Trade 91 96 101 107 110 113 115

Stocks 23 26 32 36 38 38 37

Y to Y Change -13 +3 +6 +4 +2 - -1

79% 81.79 Dependency on soy as a protein source will increase


6

GLOBAL SOY MEAL CONSUMPTION

116.2123.7

130.5 128.5136.7

145.5152.3

156.5 152.7161.3

170.3177.2

182.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

MM

T

In the last five years the global consumption of soy meal has increased by 29.50 MMT


Source: USDA S&D April 2013

7

WHAT CUES DOES THE DOMESTIC ANIMAL INDUSTRY HOLD FOR SOY MEAL IN FUTURE?


8

WE BELIEVE THAT USSEC’S TEAM STRENGTH IN INDIA IS ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE DOMESTIC MARKET FOR SOY


9

CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN THE ASIA SUBCONTINENT

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Change

India 1,975 2,570 2,900 3,330 3,700 1,725

BG 395 458 503 514 524 129

PK 253 266 283 392 400 147

SL 102 107 150 158 160 58

NE 56 65 70 83 100 44

2103

In five years time these countries have increased consumption by 2.00 MMT



80%

10

ASIA SUBCONTINENT IMPORTS

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Change

India 8 7 7 6 6 -2

BG 275 417 554 375 375 100

PK 273 246 275 434 350 77

SL 105 115 160 165 168 63

NE 56 65 70 83 100 44

709 843 1059 1057 993 284

Close to 1 MMT is imported by neighbors, largely from India; their consumption is growing too



11

SBM DEMAND - IRAN V/S INDIA

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Change

India 1,975 2,570 2,900 3,330 3,700 1,725

USSEC 3,020 3,430 3,800 4,100 4,300 1,280

Iran 2,236 2,467 2,550 2,500 2, 475 239

Iran increased utilization by 239 TMT in five years which is less than one year’s increase in India



12

ASC IMPORTS + INDIA UTILIZATION

3.7 MMT

0.350 0.100

0.375

0.168

PK NE

BG IN

CE


Derived and reconstructed by USSEC from USDA S&D April 2013

Satellite countries import close to 1 MMT

India uses 3.7 MMT

Total meal conumed in ASC = 4.7 MMT

5.52 MMT of soybeans required for serving ASC (50% approx)

13

DEMAND IN ASC V/S WORLD

2008-09 2012-13 % Change

World 152.7 182.2 19 %

Sub continent 2.68 4.88 82 %

Change due to demand for SBM in the Indian subcontinent

is 4 times

higher than world change

Constructed and compared by USSEC from USDA S&D April 2013


14

WE SHOULD NOT BE IN A POSITION OF BUILDING A CASTLE ON SAND

We have built the poultry industry of 50,000 Cr – Nice to look at - But we have an ocean of uncertainties behind and under it – are we paying heed?


15

INFRASTRUCTURE

Quality and Scale of investments on Feed milling, Breeding Farms, hatcheries and soy production

are heavily becoming

modernized


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HOW MUCH FEED WILL INDIA NEED BY 2015?

Year Feed (MMT)

Base line 2009 21.00

2010 22.47

2011 24.09

2012 25.77

2013 27.57

2014 29.49

2015 31.55

Assumption

Broiler- 12%

Layer- 7%

Dairy- 4%

Fish- 5%

Av=7%

@ industry growth rates

50% growth

Analysis through industry growth


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SOYBEAN FACTOR FOR CHICKEN AND EGGS

Soy Inclusion Soy usage in grams

20% 680

22% 748

25% 850

Soy Inclusion Soy usage in grams

7% 8.50

10% 12.20

15% 18.30

BROILER – 3.4 kg feed/bird (2 kg) LAYER – 2.2 kg feed/1 kg eggs (=18 eggs/kg)


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ANOTHER APPROACH TO SOY MEAL CONSUMPTION

One additional egg eaten in India =160,000 MT feed and 16,000 MT SBM

100 g additional chicken eaten in India =300,000 MT feed and 75,000 MT SBM

The 1.2 billion + population

is the play ground for

any business in India


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HOW MUCH FEED WILL INDIA NEED?

Year Placement

broiler

Placement

layer Feed

poultry

(MMT)

Feed

(MMT) from

previous

slide

2011 2184 188.60 17.00 24.09

2012 2704 203.73 20.53 25.77

2013 3055 215.96 23.05 27.57

2014 3452 228.91 25.31 29.49

2015 3901 242.65 27.81 31.55

2016 4408 257.21 30.64 33.75

Analysis through poultry placements; Both approaches give almost the similar number for feed quantity

At 16% average soy inclusion for broiler

and layer feed (25+7/2) soy

requirement is 4.90 MT on 30.64


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DOMESTIC SOY MEAL BUSINESS

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13

FAS 1.95 2.57 2.90 3.33 3.70

ASA-IM 3.02 3.43 3.80 4.10 4.30

Total increment in 5-year period = 1.75 MMT

Average increment per year=350,000 MT


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SBM EXPORTS FROM INDIA (USDA)

Exports on an average have been 4 MMT over the last five years.

Domestic consumption is showing a steady increase

2.362.57

1.51

3.68

2.24

4.274.14

5.29

3.81

3.12

4.804.60

4.35

1.12 1.15 1.19

0.70

1.37 1.35

1.02

1.45

1.98

2.57

2.90

3.35

3.80

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MM

T

Exports Consumption


Source: USDA

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INDIA’S SOY MEAL CONSUMPTION 2006/07 TO 2012/13

Trends to 2022/23 indicates that India will consume over 8 MMT in a decade’s time

Source: USDA


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FORECASTING SBM USE BY THE BROILER INDUSTRY

Year Broiler feed

(MMT)

SBM

@25%

SBM

@ 28%

2009 7.00 1.75 1.96

2010 7.08 1.77 1.98

2011 7.93 1.98 2.22

2012 8.88 2.22 2.48

2013 9.94 2.48 2.78

2014 11.13 2.78 3.11

2015 12.76 3.19 3.57


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NEW SOY MEAL BUSINESS

CG-Nil

OR- Nil

BH(1) 41/9

MP-Nil

PB- Nil

HR(1) 48/10

MH(1) 72/15

KA (5) 353/78

KL(0) Nil

AP(7) 336/91

WB(1) 48/10

JH(1) 48/10

RJ (1) 48/10

TN(4)

25

Feed capacity 1.16 MMT SBM potential 0.270 MMT

Poultry 17 Aqua 8

2012

UP(2) 124/27

AS(1) 48/10


25

NEW SOY MEAL BUSINESS

CG-Nil

OR- Nil

BH(2) 72/15

MP-Nil

PB(1) 48/10

HR(3)144/31

MH(1) 60/15

KA (0) Nil

KL(0) Nil

AP(6) 444/123

WB(2) 108/28

JH - Nil

RJ (2) 96/21

TN(1)

21

Feed capacity 1.11 MMT SBM potential 0.274 MMT

Poultry 13 Aqua 8

2013

UP(2) 144/31


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DEMAND FOR DOMESTIC SOY MEAL IS EVER INCREASING FROM A NEW BUSINESS

PERSPECTIVE Year Number of new

businesses New feed milling capacity

New soybean requirement

2009 39 2.5 0.500

2010 29 1.08 0.235

2011 29 1.04 0.254

2012 25 1.16 0.270

2013 21 1.11 0.274 TOTALS 143 6.89 MMT 1.53 MMT


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USSEC’S DOMESTIC SBM DATA ANALYSIS APPROACH


Domestic soy use

Corn use

(0.35) USDA

domestic consumption

Total broiler meat

production

Total egg production

Full fat soybean

use

Aquaculture use

Total feed milling

Placements

New business/ new use

The assessments we wish to have in future 1)E/W/N/S/C 2)State wise

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MEETING DOMESTIC DEMAND

S.No Poultry Firm

Crushing Capacity (TPD)

1 A 1000

2 B 600

3 C 400

4 D 500

5 E 500

6 F 500

7 G 500

8 H 500

TOTAL INSTALLED

4500

4500 X 20 days = 90,000 MT 90,000 MT X 8 months = 720,000 Animal feed investments into crush ( backward integrations) for meeting own demand, ensuring RM security and meeting quality standards


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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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soy meal utilization for animal feeds in india - p.e.vijay anand

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