southern tier stocker cattle initiative

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Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative Funded by the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets project : “Stocker cattle: Using underutilized grasslands to improve economic viability of the Southern Tier while providing viable careers for beginning farmers.”

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Page 1: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Funded by the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets project :

“Stocker cattle: Using underutilized grasslands to improve economic viability of the Southern Tier while providing viable careers for beginning farmers.”

Page 2: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

2

Factors affecting the auction price of New York feeder cattle

Michael J. Baker, Cornell UniversityTodd M. Schmit, Cornell UniversityMatt N. LeRoux, CCE – Tompkins County

Page 3: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

IntroductionPrevious studies have shown genetic and management factors affect price of feeder cattle

• Weight• Lot size• Health• Condition• Fill• Muscling• Frame size• Breed• Time of sale• Horn status

Burdine, et al., 2011 (Kentucky)Schultz, et al., 2010 (Missouri and Kansas)Troxel, et al., 2006 (Arkansas)

Page 4: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Data collectionFinger Lakes Livestock Exchange, Canandaigua, NY

Special Feeder Calf sales

Page 5: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Data collectedFactors collected

Weight Uniformity Muscle

# head • Weight Thriftiness

Time • Color Price

Wean/PC/Horns • Breed Buyer

Sex BCS

Color Frame

Page 6: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Distribution of Average Weight (N = 3,867 lots)

Page 7: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Distribution of lots by month

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Total of 3867 observations, 9885 head

Page 8: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Summary statisticsVariable Mean SD Minimum MaximumPrice, $/lb. 1.16 0.25 0.18 2.00Average weight, lb. 557 195 95 1597Head/sale 566 162 278 821No. lots 224 57 122 302Lot size, #hd. 2.5 2.2 1 14Single head lots, % 49Preconditioned, % 44Steers, % 43Heifers, % 39Bulls, % 18Total of 3867 observations, 9885 head

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Hereford, non-PC steer $1.20/lb
Page 9: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Feeder Cattle

Value Determining Factors

Color (Hereford = $0) Black +$12 Red +$8 Exotic -$11

Horns -$8

Vaccinations +$5

Muscling Heavy +$4

Light -$16

Sex Heifer -$9

Frame

Condition/Flesh

Weight

Personal Preference

History

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Based on research collecting prices of feeder cattle at Finger Lakes Livestock Exchange
Page 10: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Seasonal factors affecting the price of feeder cattle

Characteristic Price differential, $/cwt1 % of pensMonth

March 25.4* 11April 9.4* 14May 13.7* 9September 1.8 11October -1.1 20November 6.1* 20December Base 15

Total of 3867 observations, 9885 head1Indicates statistical difference from base P < 0.05

Page 11: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Effect of lot size on feeder cattle price

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Base is average lot size of 2.5. As lot size increased, the price per cwt increased, up until 8.5, then decreased Prices paid for calves were at their highest for lot sizes around 8.5 – a size typical of medium truck load sizes? Prices decreased beyond this, likely because there were fewer buyers bidding on these larger sized lots. Also, does uniformity play a role here in larger lot sizes but not accounted for in our model.
Page 12: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Price of New York 500-600 lb. steers and CattleFax reported 550 lb. steers

0.801.001.201.401.601.802.00

Pric

e, $

/lb

Sale date

CattleFax 550 lb steers New York 450-650 lb steers

Average Difference$0.28/lb.

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Correlation of 0.89 R-square of 0.79.
Page 13: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Why the $0.28/lb. difference • Freight - $0.10 - $0.12/lb.• CattleFax cattle - $0.05 - $0.08/lb.• Difference then is ~$0.10/lb.

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Mileage to Garden City, KS is 1500 miles. At $0.04/mile, and 50,000 lb. = $0.12/lb.
Page 14: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Conclusions/thoughtsBuyers pay a premium for: $/hd

1. Color 28-67

2. Muscle 30

3. Pre-conditioned 16

Buyers discount for: $/hd

1. Bull 46

2. Horns 63

3. Thin body condition 50

4. Unthrifty 132

Page 15: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Conclusions/thoughts

Why $0.28/lb discount?1.Freight2.Number of cattle/sale3.Weight range4.Lot size

Page 16: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec

Series1 1.08 1.06 1.08 0.88 0.95 1.01 0.94

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Index 500-599 lb, 2012-2016

Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec

Series1 1.04 1.08 1.08 0.94 0.91 0.94 1.00

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Index 600-699 lb, 2012-2016

Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec

Series1 0.98 1.06 1.08 0.91 0.90 1.04 1.03

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Index 300-399 lb, 2012-2016

Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec

Series1 1.07 1.08 1.06 0.89 0.91 1.06 0.93

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

Index 400-499 lb, 2012-2016

Page 17: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Projected Feeder Calf Prices, May 2019

150146

143 142139

135130

125120

115110

400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900

BeefBasis.com. Basis projection for Virginia. April FC $148.20, May Corn futures $3.85. NY basis -$.25.

Page 18: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Funded by the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets project :“Stocker cattle: Using underutilized grasslands to improve economic viability of the Southern Tier while providing viable careers for beginning farmers.”

Next

• Expected price today• Cost of production: $.60/lb• Select weight(s) you will purchase• Calculate margin:

o Sale wt x price minuso Purchase wt x priceo Cost of gain

Page 19: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative
Page 20: Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Southern Tier Stocker Cattle Initiative

Funded by the New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets project :

“Stocker cattle: Using underutilized grasslands to improve economic viability of the Southern Tier while providing viable careers for beginning farmers.”

To register or for more information contact:Audia Denton

Project CoordinatorStocker Cattle Initiative

Department of Animal Science110 Morrison HallCornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14853

[email protected]

Stocker Short Course – Part II, Fall• September – Choosing the right stocker calf• October – Did the stocker make money in 2018?• November – Fencing and Facilities• December – Receiving cattle and looking to 2019