southern california association of governments where will our children live? darin chidsey member...
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Where Will Our Children Live?Where Will Our Children Live?
Darin ChidseyMember Relations Officer
Growth, Change and Rising Prices
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Resolving Regional Challenges
•6 Counties
•187 Cities
•38,000 square miles
•18 million people
•10th largest economy in the world
The RegionThe Region
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
SCAG Deals With SCAG Deals With Regional Issues
Transportation
Housing
Air Quality
Waste Management
Growth Forecasting
and More...
Goods Movement
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Region’s ChallengesRegion’s ChallengesPopulation is expected to grow by more than
over the next two decades
38%more than
today
6,300,000
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
2003 Population Increase2003 Population Increase
Top 10 California Counties
Top 10 California Counties
1 2Los Angeles136,800
Riverside57,700
54
3
San Diego41,100
Orange41,900
San Bernardino44,400
6
9
710
8
Sacramento23,700
San Joaquin14,100
Fresno17,000
Santa Clara11,900
Kern16,500
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1.5 million people added between2000 and 2004
Population Growth Swamps Entitlement Process and Transportation System
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Sources of GrowthSources of Growth 2002-2003
Natural Increase
Domestic In-migration
11%
Foreign Immigration
41% 48%
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N
2004 Median Price<100,000100,000 - 250,000250,000 - 400,000400,000 - 600,000> 600,000
Home PricesHome Prices
<100,000100,000 - 250,000250,000 - 400,000400,000 - 600,000> 600,000
2004 Median Price
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Home Prices Rise SharplyAcross the State and Region
Home Prices Rise SharplyAcross the State and Region
$257,000
$191,000
$342,000
$362,000
$474,000
$472,000
$638,000
$664,000
$118,540
$150,000
$166,000
$198,500
$267,000
$295,000
$337,000
$370,000
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000
High Desert
U.S.
Riverside/San Bernardino
Palm Spring/Lwr Desert
Los Angeles
CA
Ventura
Orange
Feb-02
Feb-05
Source: National and California Assn. of Realtors, February, 2002 and 2005
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12%
11%
19%
17%
14%
16%
24%
54%
38%
27%
30%
31%
33%
36%
42%
55%
57%
68%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Palm Spring/Lwr Desert
Orange
CA
Los Angeles
Ventura
Riverside
San Bernardino
U.S.
High Desert
Home Affordability Slips Sharply, Especially in Comparison to the U.S.
Home Affordability Slips Sharply, Especially in Comparison to the U.S.
Source: California Assn. of Realtors, February, 2002 and 2005
Percent of Households Able to Afford the Median Priced HomePercent of Households Able to Afford the Median Priced Home
Feb-02
Feb-05
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005* 2010* 2015* 2020* 2025* 2030*
Total Building Permits Issued Single Family Building Permits Multi-Family Building Permits
Single Family and Multi-Family Housing Trends in Southern California
Single Family and Multi-Family Housing Trends in Southern California
Permits Issued Trend Projection
Sources: Construction Industry Research Board & SCAG RTP Trend Projection
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Over the Last Two Decades Population Growth Has Significantly Exceeded Housing Production in LA County
Over the Last Two Decades Population Growth Has Significantly Exceeded Housing Production in LA County
LA County Population and Housing Growth 1970 - 2000
656,174
1,385,661
445,428
107,566
307,765
316,668
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000
90-00
80-90
70-80
Population Housing
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STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES
Land Use Policy Housing Policy Economic Development
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Growth VisioningGrowth Visioning
• The most ambitious “Growth Visioning” effort ever undertaken
• A collaborative process to develop a strategy to maintain our quality of life while making room for...
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
CompassProject Vision CompassProject Vision To Plan
Without Boundarie
s
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Changes will affect only 2%
of regional land mass
Changes will affect only 2%
of regional land mass
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Key FeaturesKey Features
Targets growth to
existing and planned
transportation system
Promotes mixed-use development
to reducenumber and
length of daily trips
Preservesstable
neighborhoods
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Key FeaturesKey Features
Provides better access to jobs and improved
jobs/housing balance
Jobs Housing
Conserves open space
Supports public/private
partnerships and user-fee
infrastructure financing
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Concentration of newdevelopment along existing and
planned transportation corridors and in regional centers
Concentration of newdevelopment along existing and
planned transportation corridors and in regional centers
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Key Benefits Key Benefits
Allows transit systems to
become more productive
(22% increase in daily boardings)
Improves capacity and efficiency of
goods movement, supporting
growth of the Logistics Industry
Reduces Vehicle Miles
Traveled(-7 million
VMTs/day) travel delay(-180,000
hours/day) & emissions
(-17 tons VOC/day)
The region can
achieve air quality
conformity.
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Southern California Association of Governments
Southern California Association of Governments
Offers improved housing
availability and
affordability
Key Benefits Key Benefits
Renovates urban cores, creating wealth through
increasedproperty values
Creates over 300,000 high paying jobs
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Thank You
Thank Youplease visit us at
www.scag.ca.govplease visit us at www.scag.ca.gov