southeast u.s. rental housing overview 2015 cahec partners conference patrick m. bowen bowen...
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Southeast U.S. Rental Housing Overview
2015 CAHEC
Partners Conference
Patrick M. Bowen
Bowen National Research
June 20, 2015
National Trends – Occupancy Rates
• National Apartment Occupancy Rate = ~ 95%, Trending Up
Source: Axiometrics
• Tax Credit Projects ~ 97%+
National Trends – Rent Growth
• 2014 Rent Growth 3.5% to 4.5%
• Tax Credit Rent Growth 2.5% to 3.0%
National Trends – Multifamily Construction
• New Multifamily Starts Increased in Each of Past 5 Years• New Multifamily Starts in 2014 Exceeded Pre-recession Levels
Regional Comparison – Residential Building Permits
• Each of the four regional states had increased building permit activity between 2011 and 2013• North Carolina experienced the greatest increase since 2011• W. Virginia experienced nominal increase over past 5 years
State Building Permits (2010-2014)
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,000
30,00035,00040,00045,000
50,00055,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Tot
al P
erm
its
North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia
Regional Comparison – LIHTC Vacancy Rates
State
Surveyed
Units Vacancy
N. Carolina 10,923 1.8%
S. Carolina 5,287 1.1%
Virginia 16,021 2.2%
W. Virginia 1,492 2.2%
Region 33,723 1.9%
Regional Comparison – Median LIHTC Rental Rates @ 60% AMHI
State
Surveyed
Units 1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.
N. Carolina 10,923 $538 $627 $736
S. Carolina 5,287 $550 $650 $740
Virginia 16,021 $721 $833 $940
W. Virginia 1,492 $506 $585 $668
Region 33,723 $605 $688 $777
Note: Median Rents for LIHTC projects are generally 15% to 20% below market-rate levels
North Carolina – Residential Building Permits
Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html
North Carolina Building Permits (2005-2014)
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Tot
al P
erm
its
Single-Family Multi-Family
Housing Unit Building Permits for North Carolina:
Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Multifamily Permits 12,935 17,307 15,438 15,570 8,412 7,842 7,941 18,747 15,974 14,860
Single-Family Permits 84,975 82,710 70,339 39,082 25,388 26,047 24,863 29,945 35,316 35,051
Total Units 97,910100,01
7 85,777 54,652 33,800 33,889 32,804 48,692 51,290 49,911
North Carolina – Renter Household Growth
Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014 to 2019
North Carolina - LIHTC Vacancy Rates
City Surveyed Units Vacant Vacancy
Asheville 785 0 0.0%
Charlotte 2,921 9 0.3%
Concord 694 3 0.4%
Durham 1,436 69 4.8%
Fayetteville 800 6 0.7%
Greensboro 650 6 0.9%
Greenville 624 31 5.0%
High Point 418 5 1.2%
Kannapolis 220 9 4.1%
Raleigh 1,421 6 0.4%
Wilmington 954 61 5.4%
North Carolina – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI
City
Surveyed
Units 1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.
Asheville 785 $484 $546 $659
Charlotte 2,921 $589 $720 $800
Concord 694 $575 $685 $780
Durham 1,436 $671 $790 $911
Fayetteville 800 $461 $515 $582
Greensboro 650 $566 $653 $722
Greenville 624 $470 $546 $595
High Point 418 $506 $615 $725
Kannapolis 220 $560 $685 $758
Raleigh 1,421 $650 $675 $830
Wilmington 954 $534 $617 $707
N. Carolina – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations
N. Carolina – 2015 LIHTC Applications
South Carolina – Residential Building Permits
Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html
Housing Unit Building Permits for South Carolina:
Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Multifamily Permits 10,816 9,101 7,814 6,140 2,088 1,333 2,690 3,420 4,478 6,073
Single-Family Permits 43,349 41,680 32,817 19,782 13,445 12,693 12,852 15,290 20,250 21,470
Total Units 54,165 50,781 40,631 25,922 15,533 14,026 15,542 18,710 24,728 27,543
South Carolina Building Permits (2005-2014)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Tot
al P
erm
its
Single-Family Multi-Family
Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019
South Carolina – Renter Household Growth
City
Surveyed
Units Vacant Vacancy
Aiken 154 0 0.0%
Charleston 385 0 0.0%
Columbia 1,493 37 2.5%
Greenville 971 9 0.9%
Hartsville 112 0 0.0%
N. Charleston 826 7 0.8%
Rock Hill 531 1 0.2%
Spartanburg 446 5 1.1%
Sumter 369 0 0.0%
South Carolina - LIHTC Vacancy Rates
City
Surveyed
Units 1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.
Aiken 154 $400 $485 $565
Charleston 385 $607 $717 $740
Columbia 1,493 $633 $730 $830
Greenville 971 $550 $650 $750
Hartsville 112 $520 $580 $543
N. Charleston 826 $565 $720 $828
Rock Hill 531 $615 $670 $753
Spartanburg 446 $540 $616 $690
Sumter 369 $461 $542 $575
South Carolina – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI
S. Carolina – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations
S. Carolina – 2015 LIHTC Applications
Virginia – Residential Building Permits
Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html
Virginia Building Permits (2005-2014)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Tot
al P
erm
its
Single-Family Multi-Family
Housing Unit Building Permits for Virginia:
Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Multifamily Permits 11,559 8,727 7,418 7,638 5,184 4,843 7,672 9,782 11,049 9,848
Single-Family Permits 49,959 38,977 30,944 19,939 16,268 16,149 15,625 17,496 20,893 18,832
Total Units 61,518 47,704 38,362 27,577 21,452 20,992 23,297 27,278 31,942 28,680
Virginia – Renter Household Growth
Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019
CitySurveyed
UnitsVacant Vacancy
Alexandria 1,664 3 0.2%
Chesapeake 2,395 48 2.0%
Hampton 1,089 37 3.4%
Newport News 669 32 4.8%
Norfolk 1,811 54 3.0%
Petersburg 774 26 3.4%
Portsmouth 1,474 3 0.2%
Richmond 3,753 127 3.4%
Suffolk 488 0 0.0%
Virginia Beach 1,904 17 0.9%
Virginia - LIHTC Vacancy Rates
Virginia – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI
CitySurveyed
Units1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.
Alexandria 1,664 $1,103 $1,340 $1,564
Chesapeake 2,395 $698 $827 $903
Hampton 1,089 $746 $889 $1,005
Newport News 669 $721 $849 $978
Norfolk 1,811 $714 $830 $930
Petersburg 774 $668 $680 $730
Portsmouth 1,474 $714 $793 $913
Richmond 3,753 $625 $795 $910
Suffolk 488 $714 $756 $835
Virginia Beach 1,904 $750 $890 $1,005
Virginia – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations
Virginia – 2015 LIHTC Applications
West Virginia – Residential Building Permits
Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html
Housing Unit Building Permits for West Virginia:
Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Multifamily Permits 657 485 877 921 269 599 632 955 658 774
Single-Family Permits 5,483 5,160 3,918 2,560 1,966 1,796 1,588 1,763 1,966 1,933
Total Units 6,140 5,645 4,795 3,481 2,235 2,395 2,220 2,718 2,624 2,707
West Virginia Building Permits (2005-2014)
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Tot
al P
erm
its
Single-Family Multi-Family
Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019
West Virginia – Renter Household Growth
West Virginia - LIHTC Vacancy Rates
CitySurveyed
UnitsVacant Vacancy
Beckley 138 0 0.0%
Charleston 103 0 0.0%
Fairmont 78 0 0.0%
Martinsburg 554 8 1.4%
Morgantown 169 0 0.0%
Parkersburg 141 0 0.0%
Weirton 82 0 0.0%
Wheeling 227 25 11.0%*
*Includes project in initial lease-up, all other properties full
West Virginia – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI
CitySurveyed
Units1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.
Beckley 138 $470 $570 $570
Charleston 103 $480 $555 $630
Fairmont 78 -- $618 $677
Martinsburg 554 $597 $745 $875
Morgantown 169 $545 $638 $720
Parkersburg 141 $507 $570 $645
Weirton 82 $473 $513 $595
Wheeling 227 $475 $533 $650
West Virginia – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations
Designation Unknown
Contact
Patrick BowenBowen National Research
Phone: 614-833-9300E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.bowennational.com