trends and issues in the u.s housing market 2015 cahec partners conference may 19 - 20 raleigh, nc...
TRANSCRIPT
Trends and Issues in the U.S Housing Market
2015 CAHEC Partners ConferenceMay 19 - 20Raleigh, NC
Stockton WilliamsExecutive Director
ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing
ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing
• Our mission is to facilitate creating and sustaining a full spectrum of housing opportunities, including affordable and workforce housing, in communities across the country.
• The Center’s agenda and activities are broad-based, reflecting the diversity of housing activities and priorities among ULI’s 35,000 members worldwide.
Housing Permits Way Below Pre-Recession Peak
Source: American Action Forum using US Census Data 2015
Housing Starts Way Below Pre-Recession Peak
Source: American Action Forum using US Census Data 2014
Housing Inventory Remains Suppressed
Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year
Home Prices Have Been Rising
Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year
First-Time Buyers a Small Part of the Market
Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year
Wages are Stagnant
Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year
Credit is Tight
Source: Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-21/these-charts-will-tell-you-where-the-housing-market-is-headed-this-year
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Homeownership is at a 20-Year Low
More Americans are Renting
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
28
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37
Percent of Americans Renting
Source: Mother Jones, Erika Eichelberger and AJ Vicens, Thu Aug. 7, 2014http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/06/rental-affordability-crisis-hud
Renter Growth has Been Accelerating
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Renters Will Lead Future Demand
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Future Population Growth will be Minority-Led
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
So Will Future Housing Demand
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Household Income is Lower for Minorities
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
So is Household Wealth
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Our Population is Aging
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Mortgage Debt will Weigh Heavily on Older Owners
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Rent is Increasingly Unaffordable
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Prioritieshttp://www.cbpp.org/research/chart-book-federal-housing-spending-is-poorly-matched-to-need
Crushing Rents are Widespread
Source: The Silent Housing Crisis: A Snapshot of Current and Future Conditions. Terwilliger Foundation for Housing America's Families.http://charlotte.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/03/JRT-Paper-Housing-3-18.pdf
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing 2013. Moderately cost burdened households pay at least 30% of income toward rent; Severely burdened households pay at least 50% of income toward rent.
The share of cost burdened renter households has reached record levels.
Half of all renters are at least moderately cost burdened.
People who can’t afford to buy homes are also struggling to pay rent.
Rent Burdens Are Growing
Affordability Challenges are Significant in Southeast
State Total Working Households 2013
Total with Severe Housing Cost Burden 2013
Percent with Severe Housing Cost Burden 2013
AL 641,514 112,746 17.6%FL 2,529,871 692,471 27.4%GA 1,391,876 308,089 22.1%KY 607,757 96,372 15.9%MD 942,747 185,118 19.6%NC 1,446,895 268,310 18.5%PA 1,881,654 328,286 17.4%SC 673,696 124,999 18.6%TN 947,733 178,844 18.9%VA 1,225,800 229,947 18.8%DC 117,478 30,166 25.7%
Source: National Housing Conference, Housing Landscape 2015, http://www.nhc.org/Landscape2015_final.pdf
U.S Housing Policy Favors the Wealthiest
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Prioritieshttp://www.cbpp.org/research/chart-book-federal-housing-spending-is-poorly-matched-to-need
Housing Assistance is Mismatched to Need
• without subsidies.
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Prioritieshttp://www.cbpp.org/research/chart-book-federal-housing-spending-is-poorly-matched-to-need
Housing Credit Production Power is Declining
Source: Novogradac & Company LLP and NCSHA data and estimates
But Remains a Bulwark of MF Development
Source: Novogradac & Company using NAHB housing starts data and NCSHA housing credit utilization data; July 2014
Where We Live Matters – Maybe More than Ever
