south africa 58 1 938 other 2 090 2 181 · ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % saudi arabia 40 568 37...

16
DG AGRI DASHBOARD : POULTRY MEAT 29.06.2017 Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008 and Regulation (EC) 617/2008), GTA, Last update: Period: 2016 2017 % Chg EU-28 504 237 490 196 - 2.8 % Hong Kong 40 779 53 910 + 32.2 % Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 809 - 6.8 % Benin 44 417 36 727 - 17.3 % South Africa 82 916 34 602 - 58.3 % Ghana 23 364 34 257 + 46.6 % Congo (Dem. Re 7 882 21 330 +++ Other 234 160 227 281 - 2.9 % POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight) Jan-Apr Prices World Quotations Production Trade EU-28 EXPORTS ( Top Destinations in 2015 / 16 ) World Trade - 0.1% Overall Poultry Meat Placings Broiler + 2.8% + 1.2% Period: 2016 2017 % Chg EU-28 299 671 283 678 - 5.3% Brazil 168 328 157 518 - 6.4 % Thailand 99 034 88 136 - 11.0 % Ukraine 11 149 16 988 + 52.4 % Chile 11 473 8 518 - 25.8 % China 5 606 6 041 + 7.8 % Argentina 1 934 2 358 + 21.9 % South Africa 58 1 938 +++ Other 2 090 2 181 + 4.4 % POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight) Jan-Apr EU-28 IMPORTS ( Main Partners in 2015 / 16 ) 11 354 11 656 12 121 12 360 12 694 12 783 13 261 13 775 14 384 14 482 14 596 11 330 11 588 11 767 11 901 12 229 12 282 12 751 13 284 13 792 13 893 13 989 100% 101% 103% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 0 4 000 8 000 12 000 16 000 20 000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f 1000 Tonnes EU Poultry meat production ( Forecasts 2017 and 2018 based on estimations ) EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %) EU W E E K P R I C E S 25 last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR BROILER €/100 kg carcase weight Broiler 82% Turkey 15% Duck 3% Forecast and Production of poultry meat 2017 - Consumption per capita in retail => 23.81 (kg) 184.51 170 175 180 185 190 195 / 100 kg BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION Avg. 2012-16 2016 2017 184.51 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 | 15 | 16 | 17 | € / 100 kg E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S EU US BR 212.66 85.50 184.51 E V O L U T I O N S I N C E PL 2 709 18% FR 1 838 12% DE 1 789 12% UK 1 699 11% ES 1 495 10% IT 1 390 9% Other 4 207 28% EU Main Producers ( 1000 Tonnes product weight) Year 2017 Total = 5 127 (+5.6% over 2016) 6 MSs = 72% of total production 537 907 502 880 555 697 573 668 555 994 540 814 595 296 536 621 537 869 571 174 470 753 555 567 517 271 523 388 560 533 575 570 564 904 556 187 555 595 559 806 544 954 556 253 498 983 571 098 586 725 530 789 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Placings of broiler chicks ( 1 000 pieces ) 2015 2016 2017 628 493 786 559 834 816 794 510 868 897 894 963 866 840 849 915 925 405 839 617 842 885 886 148 737 483.60 864 861.25 809 878.57 822 406.11 877 730.42 903 673.02 887 776.75 870 104.06 868 105.67 879 181.46 856 230.06 869 495.58 767 883 892 745 913 055 835 935 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Forecast and Production of broiler ( Tonnes ) 2015 2016 2017 887 821 855 807 846 875 900 300 284 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr 16 Jan-Apr 17 EU Imports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1 016 1 265 1 431 1 428 1 504 1 489 1 616 504 490 0 250 500 750 1 000 1 250 1 500 1 750 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr 16 Jan-Apr 17 EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2016 2017 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2016 2017 EUR / USD EUR / BRL 1 415 1 363 1 126 1 186 469 457 336 395 221 241 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 2016 2017 In 1000 tonnes PW World Main Exporters (88% of Total Exports) Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand 2016= 4 142 2017= 4 027 Source: GTA 483 506 315 308 279 271 224 226 155 141 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2016 2017 In 1000 tonnes PW World Main Importers (69% of Total Imports) Hong Kong + China Japan EU Mexico China Source: GTA 2016 = 2 018 2017 = 2 009

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Page 1: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

DG AGRI DASHBOARD : POULTRY MEAT 29.06.2017

Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008 and Regulation (EC) 617/2008), GTA,

Last update:

Period:2016 2017 % Chg

EU-28 504 237 490 196 - 2.8 %Hong Kong 40 779 53 910 + 32.2 %

Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 %

Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 809 - 6.8 %

Benin 44 417 36 727 - 17.3 %

South Africa 82 916 34 602 - 58.3 %

Ghana 23 364 34 257 + 46.6 %

Congo (Dem. Rep.) 7 882 21 330 +++

Other 234 160 227 281 - 2.9 %

POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight)Jan-Apr

Pri

ces

Wo

rld

Qu

ota

tio

ns

Pro

du

ctio

nTr

ade

EU-28 EXPORTS( Top Destinations in 2015 / 16 )

Wo

rld

Tra

de

- 0.1%

Ove

rall

Po

ult

ry M

eat

Pla

cin

gs B

roile

r

+ 2.8% + 1.2%

Period: 2016 2017 % Chg

EU-28 299 671 283 678 - 5.3%

Brazil 168 328 157 518 - 6.4 %

Thailand 99 034 88 136 - 11.0 %

Ukraine 11 149 16 988 + 52.4 %

Chile 11 473 8 518 - 25.8 %

China 5 606 6 041 + 7.8 %

Argentina 1 934 2 358 + 21.9 %

South Africa 58 1 938 +++

Other 2 090 2 181 + 4.4 %

POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight)Jan-Apr

EU-28 IMPORTS ( Main Partners in 2015 / 16 )

11

35

4

11

65

6

12

12

1

12

36

0

12

69

4

12

78

3

13

26

1

13

77

5

14

38

4

14

48

2

14

59

6

11

33

0

11

58

8

11

76

7

11

90

1

12

22

9

12

28

2

12

75

1

13

28

4

13

79

2

13

89

3

13

98

9

100% 101% 103% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f

10

00

To

nn

es

EU Poultry meat production( Forecasts 2017 and 2018 based on estimations )

EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %)

EUW E E K P R I C E S 25

last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR

BROILER

€/100 kg carcase weight

Broiler82%

Turkey15%

Duck3%

Forecast and Production of poultry meat

2017 - Consumption per capita in retail => 23.81 (kg)

184.51

170

175

180

185

190

195

€/ 100 k

g

BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION

Avg. 2012-16 2016 2017

184.51

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

| 15 | 16 | 17 |

€/

10

0 k

g

E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S

EU

US

BR

212.66

85.50

184.51

E V O L U T I O N S I N C E

PL2 70918%

FR1 83812%

DE1 78912%

UK1 69911%

ES1 49510%

IT1 390

9%

Other4 20728%

EU Main Producers( 1000 Tonnes product weight)

Year 2017Total = 5 127

(+5.6% over 2016)

6 MSs =

72% of total production

53

7 9

07

50

2 8

80

55

5 6

97

57

3 6

68

55

5 9

94

54

0 8

14

59

5 2

96

53

6 6

21

53

7 8

69

57

1 1

74

47

0 7

53

55

5 5

67

51

7 2

71

52

3 3

88

56

0 5

33

57

5 5

70

56

4 9

04

55

6 1

87

55

5 5

95

55

9 8

06

54

4 9

54

55

6 2

53

49

8 9

83 57

1 0

98

58

6 7

25

53

0 7

89

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Placings of broiler chicks( 1 000 pieces )

2015 2016 2017

62

8 4

93

78

6 5

59

83

4 8

16

79

4 5

10

86

8 8

97

89

4 9

63

86

6 8

40

84

9 9

15

92

5 4

05

83

9 6

17

84

2 8

85

88

6 1

48

73

7 4

83

.60

86

4 8

61

.25

80

9 8

78

.57

82

2 4

06

.11

87

7 7

30

.42

90

3 6

73

.02

88

7 7

76

.75

87

0 1

04

.06

86

8 1

05

.67

87

9 1

81

.46

85

6 2

30

.06

86

9 4

95

.58

76

7 8

83 8

92

74

5

91

3 0

55

83

5 9

35

0 0 0 0 0 0

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Forecast and Production of broiler( Tonnes )

2015 2016 2017

88

7

82

1

85

5

80

7 84

6

87

5

90

0

30

0

28

4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr16

Jan-Apr17

EU Imports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

1 0

16 1

26

5 1 4

31

1 4

28

1 5

04

1 4

89

1 6

16

50

4

49

0

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr16

Jan-Apr17

EU Exports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2016 2017

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2016 2017

EUR / USD EUR / BRL

1 4

15

1 3

63

1 1

26

1 1

86

46

9

45

7

33

6 39

5

22

1

24

1

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2016 2017

In 1

00

0 t

on

ne

s P

W

World Main Exporters(88% of Total Exports)

Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand

2016= 4 1422017= 4 027

Source: GTA

48

3 50

6

31

5

30

8

27

9

27

1

22

4

22

6

15

5

14

1

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016 2017

In 1

00

0 t

on

ne

s P

W

World Main Importers(69% of Total Imports)

Hong Kong + China Japan EU Mexico China

Source: GTA

2016 = 2 0182017 = 2 009

Page 2: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

back to DashboardNext

Pric

es

- 0.1% + 2.8% + 1.2%

EUW E E K P R I C E S 25

last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR

BROILER

€/100 kg carcase weight

184.51

€/ 1

00 kg

E V O L U T I O N S I N C E

Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008)

Page 3: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

back to DashboardPrevious

PageNext

Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008)

170

175

180

185

190

195

€/ 100 k

gBROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION

Avg. 2012-16 2016 2017

184.51

Page 4: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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Broiler82%

Turkey15%

Duck3%

Forecast and Production of poultry meat

2017 - Consumption per capita in retail => 23.81 (kg)

Source: MSs notifications – Expert group

PreviousPage

Next

Page 5: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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PageNext

Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices Broiler 65% US = weekly USDA prices Fresh chicken grade A ,Chicago BR = average of prices in main producing states (Aveworld.com.br)

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

| 15 | 16 | 17 |

€/

100

kg

E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S

EU

US

BR

212.66

85.50

184.51

Page 6: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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Source: ECB (European Central Bank)

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

EUR / USD

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

Sep

t.

De

c.

Ma

r.

Jun

e

EUR / BRL

EUR / USD EUR / BRL

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan

Apr

Jul

Oct

2016 2017

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

Oct

2016 2017

Page 7: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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Source: Reg. (EC) 617/2008

537

907

502

880

555

697

573

668

555

994

540

814 595

296

536

621

537

869

571

174

470

753

555

567

517

271

52

3 3

88

56

0 5

32

57

5 5

70

56

4 9

04

55

6 1

87

55

5 3

63

55

9 8

15

54

4 8

74

55

6 1

70

49

8 9

01 57

1 0

28

58

2 7

11

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Placings of broiler chicks( 1 000 pieces )

2015 2016 2017

Page 8: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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Source: Reg. (EC) 617/2008

628

493

786

559

834

816

794

510

868

897

894

963

866

840

849

915

925

405

839

617

842

885

886

148

737

483.

60 864

861.

25

809

878.

57

822

406.

11

877

729.

46

903

673.

02

887

776.

75

870

104.

06

867

729.

32

879

130.

82

856

113.

30

869

377.

86

767

774 89

2 69

5

907

141

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Forecast and Production of broiler( Tonnes )

2015 2016 2017

Page 9: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

back to DashboardPrevious

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Source: Eurostat

PL2 70918%

FR1 838

12%DE

1 78912%

UK1 69911%

ES1 49510%

IT1 390

9%

Other4 20728%

EU Main Producers( 1000 Tonnes product weight)

Year 2017Total = 5 127(+5.6% over

2016)

Page 10: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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11 3

54

11 6

56

12 1

21

12 3

60

12 6

94

12 7

83

13 2

61

13 7

75

14 3

84

14 4

82

14 5

96

11 3

30

11 5

88

11 7

67

11 9

01

12 2

29

12 2

82

12 7

51

13 2

84

13 7

92

13 8

93

13 9

89

100% 101% 103% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104% 104%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f

1000

Ton

nes

EU Poultry meat production( Forecasts 2017 and 2018 based on estimations )

EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %)Source: Eurostat

Page 11: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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1 41

5

1 36

3

1 12

6

1 18

6

469

457

336 39

5

221

241

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2016 2017

In 1

000

tonn

es P

W

World Main Exporters(88% of Total Exports)

Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand

2016= 4 1422017= 4 027

Source: GTA

Page 12: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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483 50

6

315

308

279

271

224

226

155

141

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016 2017

In 10

00 to

nnes

PW

World Main Importers(69% of Total Imports)

Hong Kong + China Japan EU Mexico China

Source: GTA

2016 = 2 0182017 = 2 009

Page 13: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

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1 01

6 1 26

5 1 43

1

1 4

28

1 5

04

1 4

89

1 6

16

50

4

49

0

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr16

Jan-Apr17

EU Exports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

Page 14: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

back to DashboardPrevious

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Source: Eurostat

EU-28 EXPORTS ( Top Destinations in 2016 /17 )

Period:2016 2017 % Chg

EU-28 504 237 490 196 - 2.8 %Hong Kong 40 779 53 910 + 32.2 %

Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 %

Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 809 - 6.8 %

Benin 44 417 36 727 - 17.3 %

South Africa 82 916 34 602 - 58.3 %

Ghana 23 364 34 257 + 46.6 %

Congo (Dem. Rep.) 7 882 21 330 +++

Other 234 160 227 281 - 2.9 %

EU-28 Exports (Top destinations in 2016/17)POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight)

Jan-Apr

Page 15: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

back to DashboardPrevious

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887

821 85

5

807 84

6

875

900

300

284

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Apr16

Jan-Apr17

EU Imports evolution( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight)

Source: Eurostat

Page 16: South Africa 58 1 938 Other 2 090 2 181 · Ukraine 30 150 44 279 + 46.9 % Saudi Arabia 40 568 37 ... EU Exports evolution ( 1000 Tonnes carcase weight) Source: Eurostat 1.00 1.10

back to DashboardPrevious

Source: Eurostat

EU-28 IMPORTS ( Main Partners in 2016 /17 )

Period: 2016 2017 % Chg

EU-28 299 671 283 678 - 5.3%

Brazil 168 328 157 518 - 6.4 %

Thailand 99 034 88 136 - 11.0 %

Ukraine 11 149 16 988 + 52.4 %

Chile 11 473 8 518 - 25.8 %

China 5 606 6 041 + 7.8 %

Argentina 1 934 2 358 + 21.9 %

South Africa 58 1 938 +++

Other 2 090 2 181 + 4.4 %

EU-28 Imports (Main partners in 2016/17)POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight)

Jan-Apr