$13,235

$21,829$26,880

$29,439

$38,297

$50,077

$65,501

$71,734

$32,199

$45,146

$53,539$56,153

$75,311

$90,956

$115,415

$138,118

HS dropout HS Graduate Some College Assoicate Bachelor's Master's Doctorate Professional

Source: Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY

Collaborating to Expand the Pipeline“Let’s Get Real”

Presented by: Ed C. Apodaca

November 3-5, 2005

“Closing the Gaps” Projected College Enrollment Growth

138288 134619

404986448673434619

897346

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

Private Col. Public 4Yr. Public 2Yr.

Projected Growth= 500,000 more students are expected to enrolled in higher education-200,000 from population growth, and 300,000 from improved participation.

2000 2015

41%44%

14% 9%

30%

60%

(990,000 students) (1,500,000 students)

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)

U. S. Department of Education’s agency responsible for reporting of educational data

Ways of measuring dropout rates-

▸Status dropout rates- provide cumulative data among young adults within a specified age range.

▸Event dropout rates- describe the proportion of students who leave school each year without completing a high school degree program.

▸Cohort dropout rates- measure what happens to a cohort of students over a period of time.

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)(Status Dropout Rates)

2002

87%

78%

63%

5%8%

13%7%

30%

8%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

White Black Hispanic

HS Diploma Continue/GED No Diploma

U.S. youth ages 16 -24

Attrition/Dropout Rates in Texas

3331 31

3234

36

4042

4342

43

40 4039

38

34

31.3

27.2

21.4 20.7

15.814.4

10.6 10.19.1

14.7

97.7

6.85.6 5.1

38

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Intercultural Development Research Association (Cohort Rates)

Texas Education Agency (Event Rates)

Texas Education Agency (Event Dropout Rates)

87.8%83.0%

77.7%

2.9% 2.1%

14.9%10.7%

5.5%

2.4%5.3%3.8%3.8%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

White Black Hispanic

Graduated Continued GED Dropout

Class 2003

Who is to Blame for the High Dropout Rates

School-related factors:

–Over crowded classrooms

–Improper/inadequate funding

–Grade retention

–Altering school policies

–Poor curriculum

–Lack of engaging teachers

–Lack of discipline

–School’s size

Student-related factors:

–Poor academic achievement

–Low motivation/truancy

–Limited English proficiency

–Expectations

–Pregnancy/marriage

–Drug/Gangs

–Learning disabilities

–Peer relationships

Family-related factors:

–Parents’ educational & occupational levels–Mother’s educational background–Student helping to support family–Come from single parent families–Non-English speaking home environment–Ineffective parenting–Lack of interest from parents for education–Mobility

Community-related factors

–Lack of community support for schools–High incidences of criminal activities–Poor response from court system–Lack of cooperation between schools & community–Low economic level–Teaching vs. Training

What do we know about who drops out and why-

Variables Associated with Dropouts

–Age... students tend to be older-

–Gender... more likely to be male. Females who dropout are often pregnant-

–Socioeconomic ... come from low-income families-

–Ethnicity... likely to be Black, Hispanic or Native American-

–Native Language... come from non-English speaking backgrounds-

–Region... live in urban settings-

–Ability.. scored low on measures of cognitive ability-

High School Dropouts’ Profile

The National Center for Educational Statistic found that the majority of dropouts do not fit the at-risk profile-

Although the dropout rates of Blacks are 50% higher than those of Whites and Hispanics’ rates are twice those of Blacks....

Two-thirds of all dropouts are White........ and most dropouts are not from broken homes, not poor, and are not pregnant-

White, 1,566,039,

67%

Hispanic, 529,192,

22%Black,

267,602, 11%

Source: National Center on Secondary Education and Transition (NCSET)

Enrollment Trends of Males by Level

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Elementary High School Associate Bachelors Masters Doctoral Professional

White Hispanic BlackSource: NCES/2003 data

✔From 1957 to 1991 females high school graduates- out numbered males-

✔From 1991, males high school graduates exceeded females 5 out of the last 7

year-

Black Enrollment Trends by Gender and Level

63%

37%

62%

71%

62%

66%

56%

50% 51%

38%38%

29%

34%44%

50% 51%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Kindergarten Elementary High School Bachelors Masters Doctoral Law Medince

Female Male

Source: NCES/2003 data

Hispanic Enrollment Trends by Gender and Level

56%

62%

45%

50%51%51%52%

45%

38%40%

50%49%48% 49%

55%

60%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Kindergarten Elementary High School Bachelors Masters Doctoral Law Medince

Male FemaleSource: NCES/2003 data

White Enrollment Trends by Gender and Level

55%

59%

45%41%

50%

39%

44%

49%

52%52% 51%

61%57%

51%

48%48%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Kindergarten Elementary High School Bachelors Masters Doctoral Law Medince

Male Female

Source: NCES/2003 data

U.S. Population in State and Federal Prisons

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Texas Prisons-▸Cost......$1.8 Billion per year▸73 state facilities- (50% built in past 12 yrs)

▸164,702 inmates–41% high school dropouts–43% HS diploma/GED–16% some college